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1.
Current Issues in Tourism ; 2020.
Article in English | WHO COVID | ID: covidwho-990365

ABSTRACT

Formulation of effective policies to enhance the resilience of tourism following the COVID-19 pandemic essentially requires comprehensive empirical information on changes in tourism demand and associated economic costs The paper makes a novel contribution to tourism literature by employing regionally and temporally disaggregated tourism data and Google search data in improving the accuracy of tourism forecasts Further, the paper adopts two timeseries variables namely tourist arrivals and guest nights in order to understand the changes due to COVID-19 in tourism demand more comprehensively Monthly data on international tourist arrivals, guest nights and Google trends from 2004 to 2019 are used to produce regionally disaggregated (Europe, Asia, the Pacific, America, Other) monthly tourism forecasts for Sri Lanka We find that SARMAX models outperform the other models (ARIMA, ARIMAX, SARIMA) in forecasting tourism demand following COVID-19 Interestingly, the paper makes a further step in utilizing forecasts in estimating foregone economic benefits due to COVID-19 pandemic We find a notable difference in estimated direct economic loss depending on the variable used in estimates The percentage loss is 40% when arrival forecasts are used in estimates and 29% when guest night forecasts are used in estimates This provides important policy implications for improving post-COVID tourism © 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group

2.
Lijecnicki Vjesnik ; 142(3-4):75-84, 2020.
Article in Bosnian | WHO COVID | ID: covidwho-931797

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemics is posing unprecedented challenges and threats to patients and healthcare systems worldwide Acute respiratory complications that require intensive care unit (ICU) management are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in COVID-19 patients Patients with worst outcomes and higher mortality are reported to include immunocompromised subjects, namely older adults and polymorbid individuals and malnourished people in general ICU stay, polymorbidity and older age are all commonly associated with high risk for malnutrition, representing per se a relevant risk factor for higher morbidity and mortality in chronic and acute disease Also importantly, prolonged ICU stays are reported to be required for COVID-19 patients stabilization, and longer ICU stay may per se directly worsen or cause malnutrition, with severe loss of skeletal muscle mass and function which may lead to disability, poor quality of life and additional morbidity Prevention, diagnosis and treatment of malnutrition should therefore be routinely included in the management of COVID-19 patients In the current document, the European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism (ESPEN) aims at providing concise guidance for nutritional management of COVID-19 patients by proposing 10 practical recommendations The practical guidance is focused to those in the ICU setting or in the presence of older age and polymorbidity, which are independently associated with malnutrition and its negative impact on patient survival © 2020 Hrvatski Lijecnicki Zbor All rights reserved

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