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1.
N Engl J Med ; 2022 May 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1830285
2.
Lancet ; 399(10328): 924-944, 2022 03 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1768606

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Knowing whether COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness wanes is crucial for informing vaccine policy, such as the need for and timing of booster doses. We aimed to systematically review the evidence for the duration of protection of COVID-19 vaccines against various clinical outcomes, and to assess changes in the rates of breakthrough infection caused by the delta variant with increasing time since vaccination. METHODS: This study was designed as a systematic review and meta-regression. We did a systematic review of preprint and peer-reviewed published article databases from June 17, 2021, to Dec 2, 2021. Randomised controlled trials of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and observational studies of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness were eligible. Studies with vaccine efficacy or effectiveness estimates at discrete time intervals of people who had received full vaccination and that met predefined screening criteria underwent full-text review. We used random-effects meta-regression to estimate the average change in vaccine efficacy or effectiveness 1-6 months after full vaccination. FINDINGS: Of 13 744 studies screened, 310 underwent full-text review, and 18 studies were included (all studies were carried out before the omicron variant began to circulate widely). Risk of bias, established using the risk of bias 2 tool for randomised controlled trials or the risk of bias in non-randomised studies of interventions tool was low for three studies, moderate for eight studies, and serious for seven studies. We included 78 vaccine-specific vaccine efficacy or effectiveness evaluations (Pfizer-BioNTech-Comirnaty, n=38; Moderna-mRNA-1273, n=23; Janssen-Ad26.COV2.S, n=9; and AstraZeneca-Vaxzevria, n=8). On average, vaccine efficacy or effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection decreased from 1 month to 6 months after full vaccination by 21·0 percentage points (95% CI 13·9-29·8) among people of all ages and 20·7 percentage points (10·2-36·6) among older people (as defined by each study, who were at least 50 years old). For symptomatic COVID-19 disease, vaccine efficacy or effectiveness decreased by 24·9 percentage points (95% CI 13·4-41·6) in people of all ages and 32·0 percentage points (11·0-69·0) in older people. For severe COVID-19 disease, vaccine efficacy or effectiveness decreased by 10·0 percentage points (95% CI 6·1-15·4) in people of all ages and 9·5 percentage points (5·7-14·6) in older people. Most (81%) vaccine efficacy or effectiveness estimates against severe disease remained greater than 70% over time. INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 vaccine efficacy or effectiveness against severe disease remained high, although it did decrease somewhat by 6 months after full vaccination. By contrast, vaccine efficacy or effectiveness against infection and symptomatic disease decreased approximately 20-30 percentage points by 6 months. The decrease in vaccine efficacy or effectiveness is likely caused by, at least in part, waning immunity, although an effect of bias cannot be ruled out. Evaluating vaccine efficacy or effectiveness beyond 6 months will be crucial for updating COVID-19 vaccine policy. FUNDING: Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/therapeutic use , COVID-19/prevention & control , Immunization Schedule , Immunization, Secondary , /therapeutic use , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Time Factors
4.
Lancet Infect Dis ; 22(5): 657-667, 2022 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1713042

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented disruption to society, which indirectly affects infectious disease dynamics. We aimed to assess the effects of COVID-19-related disruption on dengue, a major expanding acute public health threat, in southeast Asia and Latin America. METHODS: We assembled data on monthly dengue incidence from WHO weekly reports, climatic data from ERA5, and population variables from WorldPop for 23 countries between January, 2014 and December, 2019 and fit a Bayesian regression model to explain and predict seasonal and multi-year dengue cycles. We compared model predictions with reported dengue data January to December, 2020, and assessed if deviations from projected incidence since March, 2020 are associated with specific public health and social measures (from the Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracer database) or human movement behaviours (as measured by Google mobility reports). FINDINGS: We found a consistent, prolonged decline in dengue incidence across many dengue-endemic regions that began in March, 2020 (2·28 million cases in 2020 vs 4·08 million cases in 2019; a 44·1% decrease). We found a strong association between COVID-19-related disruption (as measured independently by public health and social measures and human movement behaviours) and reduced dengue risk, even after taking into account other drivers of dengue cycles including climatic and host immunity (relative risk 0·01-0·17, p<0·01). Measures related to the closure of schools and reduced time spent in non-residential areas had the strongest evidence of association with reduced dengue risk, but high collinearity between covariates made specific attribution challenging. Overall, we estimate that 0·72 million (95% CI 0·12-1·47) fewer dengue cases occurred in 2020 potentially attributable to COVID-19-related disruption. INTERPRETATION: In most countries, COVID-19-related disruption led to historically low dengue incidence in 2020. Continuous monitoring of dengue incidence as COVID-19-related restrictions are relaxed will be important and could give new insights into transmission processes and intervention options. FUNDING: National Key Research and Development Program of China and the Medical Research Council.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Dengue , Bayes Theorem , COVID-19/epidemiology , Dengue/epidemiology , Humans , Latin America/epidemiology , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
7.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-294695

ABSTRACT

Background: Knowing whether and to what extent COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness wanes is critical to informing vaccine policy, such as the need for and timing of booster doses. <br><br>Methods: We performed a systematic review from June 17 to October 27, 2021, using a structured search strategy of multiple databases. Studies with vaccine efficacy or effectiveness (VE) estimates for any WHO Emergency-Use-Listed COVID-19 vaccine at discrete time intervals after full vaccination and meeting pre-defined screening criteria underwent full-text review and risk of bias assessment. Random effects meta-regression was used to estimate the average change in VE from one to six months after full vaccination. <br><br>Findings: Of 9,261 studies screened, 217 underwent full text review, and 14 were included in analyses. Vaccines evaluated were Pfizer/BioNTech-Comirnaty (n=11), Moderna-mRNA-1273 (n=8), Janssen-Ad26.COV2.S (n=3), and AstraZeneca-Vaxzevria (n=2). On average, VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection decreased between 1 and 6 months after full vaccination by 18·5 percentage points (95% CI 8·4-33·4, p=0·0006) among persons of all ages and 19·9 percentage points (95% CI 9·2-36·7, p=0·0007) among older persons;for symptomatic COVID-19 disease, VE decreased by 25·4 (95% CI 13·7-42·5) and 32·0 percentage points (95% CI 11·0-69·0), respectively;and for severe COVID-19 disease, VE decreased by 8·0 (95% CI 3·6-15·2) and 9·7 percentage points (95% CI 5·9-14·7), respectively. The majority of VE estimates against severe disease remained over 70% for all time points. <br><br>Interpretation: COVID-19 vaccine efficacy or effectiveness against COVID-19 severe disease remained high (>70%) in most studies in the six months after full vaccination, although it did decrease some (on average, 8-10 percentage points) between one and six months after full vaccination. In contrast, VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic COVID-19 disease decreased approximately 20-30 percentage points during the six months after vaccination. The decrease in VE is likely due, at least in part, to waning immunity, although we cannot rule out the effect of bias. Continued follow-up of VE beyond six months is critical for updating COVID-19 vaccine policy. . <br><br>Funding Information: Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI)<br><br>Declaration of Interests: MMH reports research grants from World Health Organization (WHO, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), Asian Development Bank (ADB), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), and Pfizer (all paid to the institution). RA reports a contract from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a grant from the Chile Ministry of Science, and consulting fees from Mayo Clinic and Chile Ministry of Health. YG reports research grants from the United States-Israel Binational Science Foundation (BSF) and Israel Science Foundation. MJG reports research grants from South African Medical Research Council and BMGF (all paid to the institution) and participation on a data safety monitoring board for a study on the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination against SARS-CoV-2-associated hospitalization and death. AH reports research grants from United States-Israel BSF. KLO serves as the Secretariat for the WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization. MDK reports research grants from WHO, CEPI, ADB, and Pfizer (all paid to the institution) and consultancy fees from Merck. All other authors have nothing to declare. <br><br>

8.
J Travel Med ; 28(8)2021 Dec 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1546002
9.
Nat Med ; 27(11): 1856-1857, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1526096
10.
Lancet Infect Dis ; 22(2): 152-153, 2022 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1488018
12.
Nat Med ; 27(11): 1856-1857, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1434129
13.
Vaccine ; 39(45): 6595-6600, 2021 10 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1415828

ABSTRACT

National Immunization Technical Advisory Groups are groups of multi-disciplinary experts that provide scientific advice to policy makers to enable them to make informed immunization policy and programme decisions. NITAGs faced challengesusing their routine approach to develop recommendations for COVID-19 vaccines during the pandemic. In response, the WHORegional Office for Europe (Regional Office), with the support of theRobert Koch Institute, developedan innovative approach of a series of webinars, provision of materials, and remote technical assistance to address these challenges. Polls conducted during webinars were used to tailor future webinars and evaluate the effectiveness of these interventions. According to poll results, 76% of participants found the webinars and resources shared very useful in their work on COVID-19 vaccination.The Regional Office plans to build further upon the scope of online communication and establish a regional online platform for NITAGs to further support NITAGs and build capacity.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Immunization Programs , Advisory Committees , COVID-19 Vaccines , Communication , Health Policy , Humans , Immunization , SARS-CoV-2 , Vaccination , World Health Organization
14.
Curr Opin Infect Dis ; 34(5): 415-422, 2021 10 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1408785

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To examine the literature assessing safety of air travel relating to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission from January 2020 to May 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on air travel and global mobility, and various efforts are being implemented to determine a safe way forward. As the pandemic evolves, so do the challenges that force various stakeholders, including the aviation industry, health authorities, and governments, to reassess and adapt their practices to ensure the safety of travellers. RECENT FINDINGS: The literature was reviewed for multiple aspects of air travel safety during the COVID-19 pandemic. Recurring themes that surfaced included the pivotal role of commercial air travel in the geographic spread of COVID-19, the efficacy of travel restrictions and quarantines, inflight transmission risk and the role of preventive measures, the utility of pre and post flight testing, the development of effective vaccines and subsequent challenges of vaccine passports, and the ongoing threat of novel highly transmissible variants. SUMMARY: Much uncertainty lies ahead within the domains of these findings, and ongoing research, discourse and review will be necessary to navigate and determine the future direction and safety of air travel. Recovery will be slow, necessitating innovative, multipronged and collaborative solutions.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/transmission , Pandemics/prevention & control , Air Travel , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Travel , Uncertainty
17.
EClinicalMedicine ; 39: 101053, 2021 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1336375

ABSTRACT

A Lancet Commission for COVID-19 task force is shaping recommendations to achieve vaccine and therapeutics access, justice, and equity. This includes ensuring safety and effectiveness harmonized through robust systems of global pharmacovigilance and surveillance. Global production requires expanding support for development, manufacture, testing, and distribution of vaccines and therapeutics to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Global intellectual property rules must not stand in the way of research, production, technology transfer, or equitable access to essential health tools, and in context of pandemics to achieve increased manufacturing without discouraging innovation. Global governance around product quality requires channelling widely distributed vaccines through WHO prequalification (PQ)/emergency use listing (EUL) mechanisms and greater use of national regulatory authorities. A World Health Assembly (WHA) resolution would facilitate improvements and consistency in quality control and assurances. Global health systems require implementing steps to strengthen national systems for controlling COVID-19 and for influenza vaccinations for adults including pregnant and lactating women. A collaborative research network should strive to establish open access databases for bioinformatic analyses, together with programs directed at human capacity utilization and strengthening. Combating anti-science recognizes the urgency for countermeasures to address a global-wide disinformation movement dominating the internet and infiltrating parliaments and local governments.

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