Systemic Risk

Systemic risk is the name given to impacts that spread within and across systems and sectors (e.g. ecosystems, health, infrastructure and the food sector) via the movements of people, goods, capital and information within and across boundaries (e.g. regions, countries and continents). The spread of these impacts can lead to potentially existential consequences and system collapse across a range of time horizons. Globalization contributes to systemic risk affecting people worldwide. The impacts of climate change or COVID-19 show how the challenges of addressing systemic risk go beyond conventional risk management and governance. Critical system interdependencies, amplified by underlying vulnerabilities, highlight that there is a growing need to better understand cascading impacts, systemic risks and the possible political (governance) and societal responses. This includes improving our understanding of the root causes of systemic risk, both biophysical and socio-economic, and related information needs. Addressing contemporary challenges in terms of systemic risk requires integrating different systems perspectives and fostering system thinking, while implementing key intergovernmental agendas, such as the Paris Agreement, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals.

An evaluation of a pilot of daily testing of SARS-CoV-2 contacts in acute hospital and ambulance trusts in England.

OBJECTIVES: Healthcare worker (HCW) SARS-CoV-2 contacts in England have been required to quarantine, creating staff shortages. We piloted daily contact testing (DCT) to assess its feasibility as an alternative. STUDY DESIGN: Observational service evaluation. METHODS: We conducted an observational service evaluation of 7-day DCT using antigen lateral flow devices (LFDs) at four acute hospital trusts and one ambulance trust in England. Mixed methods were used, using aggregate and individual-level test monitoring data, semi-structured interviews, and a survey of eligible contacts. RESULTS: In total, 138 HCWs were identified as contacts of a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 case. Of these, 111 (80%) consented to daily LFD testing, of whom 82 (74%) completed the required programme without interruption and 12 (11%) completed with interruption. Fifty-eight participants (52%) and two non-participants (7.4%) completed the survey. In total, 28 interviews were conducted with participants, site and infection control leads, and union representatives. One participant tested positive on LFD and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. Three participants tested positive on PCR but not LFD. DCT was well-accepted by trusts and staff. Participants reported no relaxation of their infection prevention and control behaviours. No incidents of transmission were detected. An estimated 729 potential days of work absence were averted. CONCLUSIONS: DCT can be acceptably operated in a healthcare setting, averting quarantine-related work absences in HCW SARS-CoV-2 contacts.

'I don't want my son to be part of a giant experiment': public attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccines in children.

OBJECTIVES: This qualitative study explored public attitudes to COVID-19 vaccines in children, including reasons for support or opposition to them. STUDY DESIGN: This was a qualitative study using online focus groups and interviews. METHODS: Group and individual online interviews were conducted with a diverse sample of 24 adults in the United Kingdom to explore their views on the issue of COVID-19 vaccination in children. Data were analysed using a framework approach. RESULTS: COVID-19 vaccination in children was framed as a complex problem (a 'minefield'). Six themes emerged to explain participants views: (1) uncertainty over whether children can catch, transmit or be severely harmed by COVID-19; (2) lower risk tolerance for unknown longer term effects of the vaccine in children; (3) association of the vaccine programme with government's handling of the pandemic; (4) local social norms as a driver of hesitancy; (5) vaccinating children as a way to protect vulnerable adults; and (6) children's vaccination as parental choice. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination in children is perceived by members of the public as a complex issue, and many are torn or hesitant about the idea. Public health communications will need to combat this hesitancy if vaccine uptake for children is to be pursued as a public health policy.

The Barts Health NHS Trust COVID-19 cohort: characteristics, outcomes and risk scoring of patients in East London.

BACKGROUND: Barts Health National Health Service Trust (BHNHST) serves a diverse population of 2.5 million people in London, UK. We undertook a health services assessment of factors used to evaluate the risk of severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.METHODS: Patients with confirmed polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test results admitted between 1 March and 1 August 2020 were included, alongwith clinician-diagnosed suspected cases. Prognostic factors from the 4C Mortality score and 4C Deterioration scores were extracted from electronic health records and logistic regression was used to quantify the strength of association with 28-day mortality and clinical deterioration using national death registry linkage.RESULTS: Of 2783 patients, 1621 had a confirmed diagnosis, of whom 61% were male and 54% were from Black and Minority Ethnic groups; 26% died within 28 days of admission. Mortality was strongly associated with older age. The 4C mortality score had good stratification of risk with a calibration slope of 1.14 (95% CI 1.01-1.27). It may have under-estimated mortality risk in those with a high respiratory rate or requiring oxygen.CONCLUSION: Patients in this diverse patient cohort had similar mortality associated with prognostic factors to the 4C score derivation sample, but survival might be poorer in those with respiratory failure.

Longitudinal characterisation of haematological and biochemical parameters in cancer patients prior to and during COVID-19 reveals features associated with outcome.

BACKGROUND: Cancer patients are at increased risk of death from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Cancer and its treatment affect many haematological and biochemical parameters, therefore we analysed these prior to and during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and correlated them with outcome. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Consecutive patients with cancer testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 in centres throughout the United Kingdom were identified and entered into a database following local governance approval. Clinical and longitudinal laboratory data were extracted from patient records. Data were analysed using Mann-Whitney U test, Fisher's exact test, Wilcoxon signed rank test, logistic regression, or linear regression for outcomes. Hierarchical clustering of heatmaps was performed using Ward's method. RESULTS: In total, 302 patients were included in three cohorts: Manchester (n = 67), Liverpool (n = 62), and UK (n = 173). In the entire cohort (N = 302), median age was 69 (range 19-93 years), including 163 males and 139 females; of these, 216 were diagnosed with a solid tumour and 86 with a haematological cancer. Preinfection lymphopaenia, neutropaenia and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) were not associated with oxygen requirement (O2) or death. Lymphocyte count (P < 0.001), platelet count (P = 0.03), LDH (P < 0.0001) and albumin (P < 0.0001) significantly changed from preinfection to during infection. High rather than low neutrophils at day 0 (P = 0.007), higher maximal neutrophils during COVID-19 (P = 0.026) and higher neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR; P = 0.01) were associated with death. In multivariable analysis, age (P = 0.002), haematological cancer (P = 0.034), C-reactive protein (P = 0.004), NLR (P = 0.036) and albumin (P = 0.02) at day 0 were significant predictors of death. In the Manchester/Liverpool cohort 30 patients have restarted therapy following COVID-19, with no additional complications requiring readmission. CONCLUSION: Preinfection biochemical/haematological parameters were not associated with worse outcome in cancer patients. Restarting treatment following COVID-19 was not associated with additional complications. Neutropaenia due to cancer/treatment is not associated with COVID-19 mortality. Cancer therapy, particularly in patients with solid tumours, need not be delayed or omitted due to concerns that treatment itself increases COVID-19 severity.

Inflammatory phenotyping predicts clinical outcome in COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to more than 760,000 deaths worldwide (correct as of 16th August 2020). Studies suggest a hyperinflammatory response is a major cause of disease severity and death. Identitfying COVID-19 patients with hyperinflammation may identify subgroups who could benefit from targeted immunomodulatory treatments. Analysis of cytokine levels at the point of diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection can identify patients at risk of deterioration. METHODS: We used a multiplex cytokine assay to measure serum IL-6, IL-8, TNF, IL-1ß, GM-CSF, IL-10, IL-33 and IFN-γ in 100 hospitalised patients with confirmed COVID-19 at admission to University Hospital Southampton (UK). Demographic, clinical and outcome data were collected for analysis. RESULTS: Age > 70 years was the strongest predictor of death (OR 28, 95% CI 5.94, 139.45). IL-6, IL-8, TNF, IL-1ß and IL-33 were significantly associated with adverse outcome. Clinical parameters were predictive of poor outcome (AUROC 0.71), addition of a combined cytokine panel significantly improved the predictability (AUROC 0.85). In those ≤70 years, IL-33 and TNF were predictive of poor outcome (AUROC 0.83 and 0.84), addition of a combined cytokine panel demonstrated greater predictability of poor outcome than clinical parameters alone (AUROC 0.92 vs 0.77). CONCLUSIONS: A combined cytokine panel improves the accuracy of the predictive value for adverse outcome beyond standard clinical data alone. Identification of specific cytokines may help to stratify patients towards trials of specific immunomodulatory treatments to improve outcomes in COVID-19.

Vitamin D deficiency in schizophrenia implications for COVID-19 infection.

Vitamin D deficiency is associated with an increased risk of acute respiratory infection. There is an excess of respiratory infections and deaths in schizophrenia, a condition where vitamin D deficiency is especially prevalent. This potentially offers a modifiable risk factor to reduce the risk for and the severity of respiratory infection in people with schizophrenia, although there is as yet no evidence regarding the risk of COVID-19. In this narrative review, we describe the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in schizophrenia, report the research examining the relationship between vitamin D levels and COVID-19 and discuss the associations between vitamin D deficiency and respiratory infection, including its immunomodulatory mechanism of action.

Upskilling the surgical workforce for vascular access provision during the COVID-19 pandemic - The Salisbury experience.

A vascular access device is defined as a catheter inserted into veins allowing fluids and medicines to be delivered intravenously1. The need for such devices in acutely unwell patients has remained steady throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. We describe here our experience of up-skilling the resident plastic surgery and maxillofacial surgical registrars to provide a vascular access service to reduce the workload on our intensive care colleagues. We hope that our practice and an 'all hands on deck' approach to the utilisation of baseline skills within the existing workforce will inform other departments to help ease the burden on critical care departments as we progress through the next stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.