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PLoS One ; 16(9): e0256889, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1523421

ABSTRACT

Vaccinating individuals with more exposure to others can be disproportionately effective, in theory, but identifying these individuals is difficult and has long prevented implementation of such strategies. Here, we propose how the technology underlying digital contact tracing could be harnessed to boost vaccine coverage among these individuals. In order to assess the impact of this "hot-spotting" proposal we model the spread of disease using percolation theory, a collection of analytical techniques from statistical physics. Furthermore, we introduce a novel measure which we call the efficiency, defined as the percentage decrease in the reproduction number per percentage of the population vaccinated. We find that optimal implementations of the proposal can achieve herd immunity with as little as half as many vaccine doses as a non-targeted strategy, and is attractive even for relatively low rates of app usage.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/transmission , Contact Tracing/statistics & numerical data , Mass Vaccination/statistics & numerical data , COVID-19/immunology , Contact Tracing/instrumentation , Humans , Immunity, Herd , Mobile Applications , Models, Statistical , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity
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