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1.
J R Soc Med ; 115(4): 138-144, 2022 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1673697

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between household size and risk of non-severe or severe COVID-19. DESIGN: A longitudinal observational study. SETTING: This study utilised UK Biobank linked to national SARS-CoV-2 laboratory test data. PARTICIPANTS: 401,910 individuals with available data on household size in UK Biobank. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Household size was categorised as single occupancy, two-person households and households of three or more. Severe COVID-19 was defined as a positive SARS-CoV-2 test on hospital admission or death with COVID-19 recorded as the underlying cause; and non-severe COVID-19 as a positive test from a community setting. Logistic regression models were fitted to assess associations, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Of 401,910 individuals, 3612 (1%) were identified as having suffered from a severe COVID-19 infection and 11,264 (2.8%) from a non-severe infection, between 16 March 2020 and 16 March 2021. Overall, the odds of severe COVID-19 was significantly higher among individuals living alone (adjusted odds ratio: 1.24 [95% confidence interval: 1.14 to 1.36], or living in a household of three or more individuals (adjusted odds ratio: 1.28 [1.17 to 1.39], when compared to individuals living in a household of two. For non-severe COVID-19 infection, individuals living in a single-occupancy household had lower odds compared to those living in a household of two (adjusted odds ratio: 0.88 [0.82 to 0.93]. CONCLUSIONS: Odds of severe or non-severe COVID-19 infection were associated with household size. Increasing understanding of why certain households are more at risk is important for limiting spread of the infection.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Biological Specimen Banks , COVID-19/epidemiology , Hospitalization , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , United Kingdom/epidemiology
2.
2021.
Preprint in English | Other preprints | ID: ppcovidwho-295104

ABSTRACT

Background Transmission of respiratory pathogens, such as Mycobacterium tuberculosis and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, is more likely during close, prolonged contact and when sharing a poorly ventilated space. In clinics in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and Western Cape (WC), South Africa, we estimated clinic visit duration, time spent indoors and outdoors, and occupancy density of waiting rooms. Methods We used unique barcodes to track attendees’ movements in 11 clinics in two provinces, multiple imputation to estimate missing arrival and departure times, and mixed-effects linear regression to examine associations with visit duration. Results 2,903 attendees were included. Median visit duration was 2 hours 36 minutes (interquartile range [IQR] 01:36–3:43). Longer mean visit times were associated with being female (13.5 minutes longer than males;p<0.001) and attending with a baby (18.8 minutes longer than those without;p<0.01), and shorter mean times with later arrival (14.9 minutes shorter per hour after 0700;p<0.001) and attendance for tuberculosis or ante/postnatal care (24.8 and 32.6 minutes shorter, respectively, than HIV/acute care;p<0.01). Overall, attendees spent more of their time indoors (median 95.6% [IQR 46–100]) than outdoors (2.5% [IQR 0–35]). Attendees at clinics with outdoor waiting areas spent a greater proportion (median 13.7% [IQR 1– 75]) of their time outdoors. In two clinics in KZN (no appointment system), occupancy densities of ∼2.0 persons/m 2 were observed in smaller waiting rooms during busy periods. In one clinic in WC (appointment system), occupancy density did not exceed 1.0 persons/m 2 despite higher overall attendance. Conclusions Longer waiting times were associated with early arrival, being female, and attending with a young child. Attendees generally waited where they were asked to. Regular estimation of occupancy density (as patient flow proxy) may help staff assess for risk of infection transmission and guide intervention to reduce time spent in risky spaces.

3.
Ther Adv Endocrinol Metab ; 12: 20420188211054686, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1496096

ABSTRACT

Over time, various guidelines have emphasised the importance of physical activity and exercise training in the management of type 2 diabetes, chronic diseases, including cardiovascular disease and musculoskeletal disorders. The aim of this review is to evaluate the effectiveness of physical activity in people with type 2 diabetes and COVID-19. Most research to date indicates that people with type 2 diabetes who engage in both aerobic and resistance exercise see the greatest improvements in insulin sensitivity. Physical activity is now also known to be effective at reducing hospitalisation rates of respiratory viral diseases, such as COVID-19, due to the beneficial impacts of exercise on the immune system. Preliminary result indicates that home-based exercise may be an essential component in future physical activity recommendations given the current COVID-19 pandemic and the need for social distancing. This home-based physical exercise can be easily regulated and monitored using step counters and activity trackers, enabling individuals to manage health issues that benefit from physical exercise.

4.
PLoS One ; 16(6): e0253096, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1388924

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In light of the role that airborne transmission plays in the spread of SARS-CoV-2, as well as the ongoing high global mortality from well-known airborne diseases such as tuberculosis and measles, there is an urgent need for practical ways of identifying congregate spaces where low ventilation levels contribute to high transmission risk. Poorly ventilated clinic spaces in particular may be high risk, due to the presence of both infectious and susceptible people. While relatively simple approaches to estimating ventilation rates exist, the approaches most frequently used in epidemiology cannot be used where occupancy varies, and so cannot be reliably applied in many of the types of spaces where they are most needed. METHODS: The aim of this study was to demonstrate the use of a non-steady state method to estimate the absolute ventilation rate, which can be applied in rooms where occupancy levels vary. We used data from a room in a primary healthcare clinic in a high TB and HIV prevalence setting, comprising indoor and outdoor carbon dioxide measurements and head counts (by age), taken over time. Two approaches were compared: approach 1 using a simple linear regression model and approach 2 using an ordinary differential equation model. RESULTS: The absolute ventilation rate, Q, using approach 1 was 2407 l/s [95% CI: 1632-3181] and Q from approach 2 was 2743 l/s [95% CI: 2139-4429]. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate two methods that can be used to estimate ventilation rate in busy congregate settings, such as clinic waiting rooms. Both approaches produced comparable results, however the simple linear regression method has the advantage of not requiring room volume measurements. These methods can be used to identify poorly-ventilated spaces, allowing measures to be taken to reduce the airborne transmission of pathogens such as Mycobacterium tuberculosis, measles, and SARS-CoV-2.


Subject(s)
Air Microbiology , Air Pollution, Indoor/prevention & control , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/transmission , Models, Biological , SARS-CoV-2 , Ventilation , COVID-19/epidemiology , Humans
5.
Mayo Clin Proc Innov Qual Outcomes ; 5(6): 997-1007, 2021 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1364354

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the association between accelerometer-assessed physical activity and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. METHODS: Data from 82,253 UK Biobank participants with accelerometer data (measured 2013-2015), complete covariate data, and linked COVID-19 data from March 16, 2020, to March 16, 2021, were included. Two outcomes were investigated: severe COVID-19 (positive test result from in-hospital setting or COVID-19 as primary cause of death) and nonsevere COVID-19 (positive test result from community setting). Logistic regressions were used to assess associations with moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA), total activity, and intensity gradient. A higher intensity gradient indicates a higher proportion of vigorous activity. RESULTS: Average MVPA was 48.1 (32.7) min/d. Physical activity was associated with lower odds of severe COVID-19 (adjusted odds ratio per standard deviation increase: MVPA, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.67 to 0.85]; total, 0.83 [0.74 to 0.92]; intensity, 0.77 [0.70 to 0.86]), with stronger associations in women (MVPA, 0.63 [0.52 to 0.77]; total, 0.76 [0.64 to 0.90]; intensity, 0.63 [0.53 to 0.74]) than in men (MVPA, 0.84 [0.73 to 0.97]; total, 0.88 [0.77 to 1.01]; intensity, 0.88 [0.77 to 1.00]). In contrast, when mutually adjusted, total activity was associated with higher odds of a nonsevere infection (1.10 [1.04 to 1.16]), whereas the intensity gradient was associated with lower odds (0.91 [0.86 to 0.97]). CONCLUSION: Odds of severe COVID-19 were approximately 25% lower per standard deviation (∼30 min/d) MVPA. A greater proportion of vigorous activity was associated with lower odds of severe and nonsevere infections. The association between total activity and higher odds of a nonsevere infection may be through greater community engagement and thus more exposure to the virus. Results support calls for public health messaging highlighting the potential of MVPA for reducing the odds of severe COVID-19.

6.
BMJ ; 373: n1137, 2021 05 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1273156

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the direct and indirect effects of the covid-19 pandemic on mortality in 2020 in 29 high income countries with reliable and complete age and sex disaggregated mortality data. DESIGN: Time series study of high income countries. SETTING: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, England and Wales, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Scotland, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United States. PARTICIPANTS: Mortality data from the Short-term Mortality Fluctuations data series of the Human Mortality Database for 2016-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex. INTERVENTIONS: Covid-19 pandemic and associated policy measures. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Weekly excess deaths (observed deaths versus expected deaths predicted by model) in 2020, by sex and age (0-14, 15-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years), estimated using an over-dispersed Poisson regression model that accounts for temporal trends and seasonal variability in mortality. RESULTS: An estimated 979 000 (95% confidence interval 954 000 to 1 001 000) excess deaths occurred in 2020 in the 29 high income countries analysed. All countries had excess deaths in 2020, except New Zealand, Norway, and Denmark. The five countries with the highest absolute number of excess deaths were the US (458 000, 454 000 to 461 000), Italy (89 100, 87 500 to 90 700), England and Wales (85 400, 83 900 to 86 800), Spain (84 100, 82 800 to 85 300), and Poland (60 100, 58 800 to 61 300). New Zealand had lower overall mortality than expected (-2500, -2900 to -2100). In many countries, the estimated number of excess deaths substantially exceeded the number of reported deaths from covid-19. The highest excess death rates (per 100 000) in men were in Lithuania (285, 259 to 311), Poland (191, 184 to 197), Spain (179, 174 to 184), Hungary (174, 161 to 188), and Italy (168, 163 to 173); the highest rates in women were in Lithuania (210, 185 to 234), Spain (180, 175 to 185), Hungary (169, 156 to 182), Slovenia (158, 132 to 184), and Belgium (151, 141 to 162). Little evidence was found of subsequent compensatory reductions following excess mortality. CONCLUSION: Approximately one million excess deaths occurred in 2020 in these 29 high income countries. Age standardised excess death rates were higher in men than women in almost all countries. Excess deaths substantially exceeded reported deaths from covid-19 in many countries, indicating that determining the full impact of the pandemic on mortality requires assessment of excess deaths. Many countries had lower deaths than expected in children <15 years. Sex inequality in mortality widened further in most countries in 2020.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , Developed Countries/statistics & numerical data , Mortality , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Child , Child, Preschool , Europe/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Middle Aged , Models, Statistical , Poisson Distribution , Republic of Korea/epidemiology , Sex Factors , United States/epidemiology , Young Adult
7.
BMJ ; 373: n1137, 2021 05 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1236432

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the direct and indirect effects of the covid-19 pandemic on mortality in 2020 in 29 high income countries with reliable and complete age and sex disaggregated mortality data. DESIGN: Time series study of high income countries. SETTING: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, England and Wales, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Scotland, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United States. PARTICIPANTS: Mortality data from the Short-term Mortality Fluctuations data series of the Human Mortality Database for 2016-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex. INTERVENTIONS: Covid-19 pandemic and associated policy measures. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Weekly excess deaths (observed deaths versus expected deaths predicted by model) in 2020, by sex and age (0-14, 15-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years), estimated using an over-dispersed Poisson regression model that accounts for temporal trends and seasonal variability in mortality. RESULTS: An estimated 979 000 (95% confidence interval 954 000 to 1 001 000) excess deaths occurred in 2020 in the 29 high income countries analysed. All countries had excess deaths in 2020, except New Zealand, Norway, and Denmark. The five countries with the highest absolute number of excess deaths were the US (458 000, 454 000 to 461 000), Italy (89 100, 87 500 to 90 700), England and Wales (85 400, 83 900 to 86 800), Spain (84 100, 82 800 to 85 300), and Poland (60 100, 58 800 to 61 300). New Zealand had lower overall mortality than expected (-2500, -2900 to -2100). In many countries, the estimated number of excess deaths substantially exceeded the number of reported deaths from covid-19. The highest excess death rates (per 100 000) in men were in Lithuania (285, 259 to 311), Poland (191, 184 to 197), Spain (179, 174 to 184), Hungary (174, 161 to 188), and Italy (168, 163 to 173); the highest rates in women were in Lithuania (210, 185 to 234), Spain (180, 175 to 185), Hungary (169, 156 to 182), Slovenia (158, 132 to 184), and Belgium (151, 141 to 162). Little evidence was found of subsequent compensatory reductions following excess mortality. CONCLUSION: Approximately one million excess deaths occurred in 2020 in these 29 high income countries. Age standardised excess death rates were higher in men than women in almost all countries. Excess deaths substantially exceeded reported deaths from covid-19 in many countries, indicating that determining the full impact of the pandemic on mortality requires assessment of excess deaths. Many countries had lower deaths than expected in children <15 years. Sex inequality in mortality widened further in most countries in 2020.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , Developed Countries/statistics & numerical data , Mortality , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Child , Child, Preschool , Europe/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Middle Aged , Models, Statistical , Poisson Distribution , Republic of Korea/epidemiology , Sex Factors , United States/epidemiology , Young Adult
9.
Diabet Med ; 38(10): e14549, 2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1109524

ABSTRACT

AIMS: Restrictions during the COVID-19 crisis will have impacted on opportunities to be active. We aimed to (a) quantify the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on accelerometer-assessed physical activity and sleep in people with type 2 diabetes and (b) identify predictors of physical activity during COVID-19 restrictions. METHODS: Participants were from the UK Chronotype of Patients with type 2 diabetes and Effect on Glycaemic Control (CODEC) observational study. Participants wore an accelerometer on their wrist for 8 days before and during COVID-19 restrictions. Accelerometer outcomes included the following: overall physical activity, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), time spent inactive, days/week with ≥30-minute continuous MVPA and sleep. Predictors of change in physical activity taken pre-COVID included the following: age, sex, ethnicity, body mass index (BMI), socio-economic status and medical history. RESULTS: In all, 165 participants (age (mean±S.D = 64.2 ± 8.3 years, BMI=31.4 ± 5.4 kg/m2 , 45% women) were included. During restrictions, overall physical activity was lower by 1.7 mg (~800 steps/day) and inactive time 21.9 minutes/day higher, but time in MVPA and sleep did not statistically significantly change. In contrast, the percentage of people with ≥1 day/week with ≥30-minute continuous MVPA was higher (34% cf. 24%). Consistent predictors of lower physical activity and/or higher inactive time were higher BMI and/or being a woman. Being older and/or from ethnic minorities groups was associated with higher inactive time. CONCLUSIONS: Overall physical activity, but not MVPA, was lower in adults with type 2 diabetes during COVID-19 restrictions. Women and individuals who were heavier, older, inactive and/or from ethnic minority groups were most at risk of lower physical activity during restrictions.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , Communicable Disease Control , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/physiopathology , Motor Activity/physiology , Sleep/physiology , Accelerometry , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/therapy , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , SARS-CoV-2/physiology , Young Adult
10.
Mayo Clin Proc ; 96(1): 156-164, 2021 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1065442

ABSTRACT

Behavioral lifestyle factors are associated with cardiometabolic disease and obesity, which are risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to investigate whether physical activity, and the timing and balance of physical activity and sleep/rest, were associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity and COVID-19 severity. Data from 91,248 UK Biobank participants with accelerometer data and complete covariate and linked COVID-19 data to July 19, 2020, were included. The risk of SARS-CoV-2 positivity and COVID-19 severity-in relation to overall physical activity, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), balance between activity and sleep/rest, and variability in timing of sleep/rest-was assessed with adjusted logistic regression. Of 207 individuals with a positive test result, 124 were classified as having a severe infection. Overall physical activity and MVPA were not associated with severe COVID-19, whereas a poor balance between activity and sleep/rest was (odds ratio [OR] per standard deviation: 0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62 to 0.81]). This finding was related to higher daytime activity being associated with lower risk (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.61 to 0.93) but higher movement during sleep/rest being associated with higher risk (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.42) of severe infection. Greater variability in timing of sleep/rest was also associated with increased risk (OR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.35). Results for testing positive were broadly consistent. In conclusion, these results highlight the importance of not just physical activity, but also quality sleep/rest and regular sleep/rest patterns, on risk of COVID-19. Our findings indicate the risk of COVID-19 was consistently approximately 1.2-fold greater per approximately 40-minute increase in variability in timing of proxy measures of sleep, indicative of irregular sleeping patterns.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Exercise , Rest , Sleep , Accelerometry , Aged , Biological Specimen Banks , Female , Humans , Male , Prospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Severity of Illness Index , United Kingdom/epidemiology
11.
F1000Res ; 9: 671, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-808823

ABSTRACT

Institutions such as hospitals and nursing or long-stay residential homes accommodate individuals at considerable risk of mortality should they acquire SARS-CoV-2 infection. In these settings, polymerase chain reaction tests play a central role in infection prevention and control. Here, we argue that both false negative and false positive tests are possible and that careful consideration of the prior probability of infection and of test characteristics are needed to prevent harm. We outline evidence suggesting that regular systematic testing of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic individuals could play an important role in reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within institutions. We discuss how such a programme might be organised, arguing that frequent testing and rapid reporting of results are particularly important. We highlight studies demonstrating that polymerase chain reaction testing of pooled samples can be undertaken with acceptable loss of sensitivity, and advocate such an approach where test capacity is limited. We provide an approach to calculating the most efficient pool size. Given the current limitations of tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection, physical distancing and meticulous infection prevention and control will remain essential in institutions caring for vulnerable people.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Polymerase Chain Reaction , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , COVID-19 Testing , Clinical Laboratory Techniques , False Negative Reactions , False Positive Reactions , Hospitals , Humans , Nursing Homes , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
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