Factors influencing influenza, pneumococcal and shingles vaccine uptake and refusal in older adults: a population-based cross-sectional study in England.

OBJECTIVES: Uptake of influenza, pneumococcal and shingles vaccines in older adults vary across regions and socioeconomic backgrounds. In this study, we study the coverage and factors associated with vaccination uptake, as well as refusal in the unvaccinated population and their associations with ethnicity, deprivation, household size and health conditions. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: This is a cross-sectional study of adults aged 65 years or older in England, using a large primary care database. Associations of vaccine uptake and refusal in the unvaccinated with ethnicity, deprivation, household size and health conditions were modelled using multivariable logistic regression. OUTCOME MEASURE: Influenza, pneumococcal and shingles vaccine uptake and refusal (in the unvaccinated). RESULTS: This study included 2 054 463 patients from 1318 general practices. 1 711 465 (83.3%) received at least one influenza vaccine, 1 391 228 (67.7%) pneumococcal vaccine and 690 783 (53.4%) shingles vaccine. Compared with White ethnicity, influenza vaccine uptake was lower in Chinese (OR 0.49; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.53), 'Other ethnic' groups (0.63; 95% CI 0.60 to 0.65), black Caribbean (0.68; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.71) and black African (0.72; 95% CI 0.68 to 0.77). There was generally lower vaccination uptake among more deprived individuals, people living in larger household sizes (three or more persons) and those with fewer health conditions. Among those who were unvaccinated, higher odds of refusal were associated with the black Caribbean ethnic group and marginally with increased deprivation, but not associated with higher refusal in those living in large households or those with lesser health conditions. CONCLUSION: Certain ethnic minority groups, deprived populations, large households and 'healthier' individuals were less likely to receive a vaccine, although higher refusal was only associated with ethnicity and deprivation but not larger households nor healthier individuals. Understanding these may inform tailored public health messaging to different communities for equitable implementation of vaccination programmes.

Intensive glucose control and recurrent cardiovascular events: 14-year follow-up investigation of the ACCORDION study.

AIMS: While cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes commonly progresses with the occurrence of repeated events, most trials consider the impact of glucose lowering strategies only on the first event. We examined the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial and its observational follow-up study (ACCORDION) to investigate the impact of intensive glucose control on multiple events and further identify any subgroup effects. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A recurrent events analysis, using a negative binomial regression model, was applied to estimate the treatment effect on different consecutive cardiovascular disease (CVD) events including non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, hospitalization from heart failure, and cardiovascular death. Interaction terms were used to identify potential effect modifiers. The robustness of the results were confirmed in sensitivity analyses using alternative models. RESULTS: The median duration of follow-up was 7.7 years. Of the 5,128 participants in the intensive and 5,123 in the standard glucose control arm, respectively, 822 (16.0%) and 840 (16.4%) experienced a single event; 189 (3.7%) and 214 (4.2%) two events; 52 (1.0%) and 40 (0.8%) three events; and 1 (0.02%) and 1 (0.02%) four events. There was no evidence of a treatment effect, with a rate difference of 0.0 (-0.3, 0.3) per 100 person-years comparing intensive vs standard intervention, although with nonsignificantly lower event rates in younger patients with HbA1c<7% and higher event rates in older patients with HbA1c≥9%. DISCUSSION: Intensive glucose control may not affect cardiovascular disease progression except in select subgroups. Since time-to-first event analysis may miss beneficial or harmful effects of glucose control on the risk of cardiovascular disease, recurrent events analysis should be routine in cardiovascular outcome trials, particularly when investigating long-term treatment effects. CLINICAL TRIAL REG: no. NCT00000620, clinicaltrials.gov. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Ethnic disparities in COVID-19 outcomes: a multinational cohort study of 20 million individuals from England and Canada.

BACKGROUND: Heterogeneous studies have demonstrated ethnic inequalities in the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and adverse COVID-19 outcomes. This study evaluates the association between ethnicity and COVID-19 outcomes in two large population-based cohorts from England and Canada and investigates potential explanatory factors for ethnic patterning of severe outcomes. METHODS: We identified adults aged 18 to 99 years in the QResearch primary care (England) and Ontario (Canada) healthcare administrative population-based datasets (start of follow-up: 24th and 25th Jan 2020 in England and Canada, respectively; end of follow-up: 31st Oct and 30th Sept 2020, respectively). We harmonised the definitions and the design of two cohorts to investigate associations between ethnicity and COVID-19-related death, hospitalisation, and intensive care (ICU) admission, adjusted for confounders, and combined the estimates obtained from survival analyses. We calculated the 'percentage of excess risk mediated' by these risk factors in the QResearch cohort. RESULTS: There were 9.83 million adults in the QResearch cohort (11,597 deaths; 21,917 hospitalisations; 2932 ICU admissions) and 10.27 million adults in the Ontario cohort (951 deaths; 5132 hospitalisations; 1191 ICU admissions). Compared to the general population, pooled random-effects estimates showed that South Asian ethnicity was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 death (hazard ratio: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.09-2.44), hospitalisation (1.53; 1.32-1.76), and ICU admission (1.67; 1.23-2.28). Associations with ethnic groups were consistent across levels of deprivation. In QResearch, sociodemographic, lifestyle, and clinical factors accounted for 42.9% (South Asian) and 39.4% (Black) of the excess risk of COVID-19 death. CONCLUSION: International population-level analyses demonstrate clear ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 risks. Policymakers should be cognisant of the increased risks in some ethnic populations and design equitable health policy as the pandemic continues.

Inequalities in cancer mortality trends in people with type 2 diabetes: 20 year population-based study in England.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to describe the long-term trends in cancer mortality rates in people with type 2 diabetes based on subgroups defined by sociodemographic characteristics and risk factors. METHODS: We defined a cohort of individuals aged ≥35 years who had newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 1 January 1998 and 30 November 2018. We assessed trends in all-cause, all-cancer and cancer-specific mortality rates by age, gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, obesity and smoking status. We used Poisson regression to calculate age- and calendar year-specific mortality rates and Joinpoint regression to assess trends for each outcome. We estimated standardised mortality ratios comparing mortality rates in people with type 2 diabetes with those in the general population. RESULTS: Among 137,804 individuals, during a median follow-up of 8.4 years, all-cause mortality rates decreased at all ages between 1998 and 2018; cancer mortality rates also decreased for 55- and 65-year-olds but increased for 75- and 85-year-olds, with average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) of -1.4% (95% CI -1.5, -1.3), -0.2% (-0.3, -0.1), 1.2% (0.8, 1.6) and 1.6% (1.5, 1.7), respectively. Higher AAPCs were observed in women than men (1.5% vs 0.5%), in the least deprived than the most deprived (1.5% vs 1.0%) and in people with morbid obesity than those with normal body weight (5.8% vs 0.7%), although all these stratified subgroups showed upward trends in cancer mortality rates. Increasing cancer mortality rates were also observed in people of White ethnicity and former/current smokers, but downward trends were observed in other ethnic groups and non-smokers. These results have led to persistent inequalities by gender and deprivation but widening disparities by smoking status. Constant upward trends in mortality rates were also observed for pancreatic, liver and lung cancer at all ages, colorectal cancer at most ages, breast cancer at younger ages, and prostate and endometrial cancer at older ages. Compared with the general population, people with type 2 diabetes had a more than 1.5-fold increased risk of colorectal, pancreatic, liver and endometrial cancer mortality during the whole study period. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In contrast to the declines in all-cause mortality rates at all ages, the cancer burden has increased in older people with type 2 diabetes, especially for colorectal, pancreatic, liver and endometrial cancer. Tailored cancer prevention and early detection strategies are needed to address persistent inequalities in the older population, the most deprived and smokers.

Age at Diagnosis of Type 2 Diabetes and Depressive Symptoms, Diabetes-Specific Distress, and Self-Compassion.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between age at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes and depressive symptoms, diabetes-specific distress, and self-compassion among adults with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This analysis used data from the Chronotype of Patients with Type 2 Diabetes and Effect on Glycemic Control (CODEC) cross-sectional study. Information was collected on depressive symptoms, diabetes-specific distress, and self-compassion, measured using validated self-report questionnaires, in addition to sociodemographic and clinical data. Multivariable regression models, adjusted for diabetes duration, sex, ethnicity, deprivation status, prescription of antidepressants (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors), and BMI were used to investigate the association between age at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes and each of the three psychological outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 706 participants were included; 64 (9.1%) were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes at <40 years, 422 (59.8%) between 40 and 59 years, and 220 (31.2%) at ≥60 years of age. After adjustment for key confounders, including diabetes duration, younger age at diagnosis was significantly associated with higher levels of depressive symptoms (ßadj: -0.18 [95% CI -0.25 to -0.10]; P < 0.01) and diabetes-specific distress (ßadj: -0.03 [95% CI -0.04 to -0.02]; P < 0.01) and lower levels of self-compassion (ßadj: 0.01 [95% CI 0.00 to 0.02]; P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Diagnosis of type 2 diabetes at a younger age is associated with lower psychological well-being, suggesting the need for clinical vigilance and the availability of age-appropriate psychosocial support.

Empagliflozin cardiovascular and renal effectiveness and safety compared to dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors across 11 countries in Europe and Asia: Results from the EMPagliflozin compaRative effectIveness and SafEty (EMPRISE) study.

BACKGROUND: Continued expansion of indications for sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors increases importance of evaluating cardiovascular and kidney efficacy and safety of empagliflozin in patients with type 2 diabetes compared to similar therapies. METHODS: The EMPRISE Europe and Asia study is a non-interventional cohort study using data from 2014-2019 in seven European (Denmark, Finland, Germany, Norway, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom) and four Asian (Israel, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan) countries. Patients with type 2 diabetes initiating empagliflozin were 1:1 propensity score matched to patients initiating dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors. Primary endpoints included hospitalization for heart failure, all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction and stroke. Other cardiovascular, renal, and safety outcomes were examined. FINDINGS: Among 83,946 matched patient pairs, (0·7 years overall mean follow-up time), initiation of empagliflozin was associated with lower risk of hospitalization for heart failure compared to dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (Hazard Ratio 0·70; 95% CI 0.60 to 0.83). Risks of all-cause mortality (0·55; 0·48 to 0·63), stroke (0·82; 0·71 to 0·96), and end-stage renal disease (0·43; 0·30 to 0·63) were lower and risk for myocardial infarction, bone fracture, severe hypoglycemia, and lower-limb amputation were similar between initiators of empagliflozin and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors. Initiation of empagliflozin was associated with higher risk for diabetic ketoacidosis (1·97; 1·28 to 3·03) compared to dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors. Results were consistent across continents and regions. INTERPRETATION: Results from this EMPRISE Europe and Asia study complements previous clinical trials and real-world studies by providing further evidence of the beneficial cardiorenal effects and overall safety of empagliflozin compared to dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors.

The prevalence and long-term health effects of Long Covid among hospitalised and non-hospitalised populations: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: The aim of this study was to systematically synthesise the global evidence on the prevalence of persistent symptoms in a general post COVID-19 population. Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted using multiple electronic databases (MEDLINE and The Cochrane Library, Scopus, CINAHL, and medRxiv) until January 2022. Studies with at least 100 people with confirmed or self-reported COVID-19 symptoms at ≥28 days following infection onset were included. Patient-reported outcome measures and clinical investigations were both assessed. Results were analysed descriptively, and meta-analyses were conducted to derive prevalence estimates. This study was pre-registered (PROSPERO-ID: CRD42021238247). Findings: 194 studies totalling 735,006 participants were included, with five studies conducted in those <18 years of age. Most studies were conducted in Europe (n = 106) or Asia (n = 49), and the time to follow-up ranged from ≥28 days to 387 days. 122 studies reported data on hospitalised patients, 18 on non-hospitalised, and 54 on hospitalised and non-hospitalised combined (mixed). On average, at least 45% of COVID-19 survivors, regardless of hospitalisation status, went on to experience at least one unresolved symptom (mean follow-up 126 days). Fatigue was frequently reported across hospitalised (28.4%; 95% CI 24.7%-32.5%), non-hospitalised (34.8%; 95% CI 17.6%-57.2%), and mixed (25.2%; 95% CI 17.7%-34.6%) cohorts. Amongst the hospitalised cohort, abnormal CT patterns/x-rays were frequently reported (45.3%; 95% CI 35.3%-55.7%), alongside ground glass opacification (41.1%; 95% CI 25.7%-58.5%), and impaired diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (31.7%; 95% CI 25.8%-3.2%). Interpretation: Our work shows that 45% of COVID-19 survivors, regardless of hospitalisation status, were experiencing a range of unresolved symptoms at ∼ 4 months. Current understanding is limited by heterogeneous study design, follow-up durations, and measurement methods. Definition of subtypes of Long Covid is unclear, subsequently hampering effective treatment/management strategies. Funding: No funding.

Temporal trends in admissions for atrial fibrillation and severe bleeding in England: an 18-year longitudinal analysis.

Objective. Temporal trends in admissions for atrial fibrillation (AF) and severe bleeding associated with AF vary worldwide. We aimed to explore their temporal trends in England and their relation to the introduction of DOACs in 2014 in the UK. Design. This longitudinal ecological study utilised aggregated data that was extracted from the Hospital Episode Statistics database, which captured annual admissions for AF and severe bleeding associated with AF between 2001 and 2018. Trends in admissions over the study period and across age groups, gender and regions in England were assessed. Results. In total, there were 11,292,177 admissions for AF and 324,851 admissions for severe bleeding associated with AF. There was a steady rise in admissions for AF from 2001 to 2017 (204,808 to 1,109,295; p for trend<.001). A similar trend was observed for severe bleeding (4940 to 30,169; p for trend <.001), but the increase dropped slightly between 2013 and 2014 and continued thereafter. Conclusions. There was a rise in admissions for AF and severe bleeding in England between 2001 and 2018. There is little evidence that the slight drop in admissions for severe bleeding between 2013 and 2014 may have been caused by the introduction of DOACs in 2014. Contributors to these trends need urgent exploration.

The prevalence and long-term health effects of Long Covid among hospitalised and non-hospitalised populations: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: The aim of this study was to systematically synthesise the global evidence on the prevalence of persistent symptoms in a general post COVID-19 population. Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted using multiple electronic databases (MEDLINE and The Cochrane Library, Scopus, CINAHL, and medRxiv) until January 2022. Studies with at least 100 people with confirmed or self-reported COVID-19 symptoms at ≥28 days following infection onset were included. Patient-reported outcome measures and clinical investigations were both assessed. Results were analysed descriptively, and meta-analyses were conducted to derive prevalence estimates. This study was pre-registered (PROSPERO-ID: CRD42021238247). Findings: 194 studies totalling 735,006 participants were included, with five studies conducted in those <18 years of age. Most studies were conducted in Europe (n = 106) or Asia (n = 49), and the time to follow-up ranged from ≥28 days to 387 days. 122 studies reported data on hospitalised patients, 18 on non-hospitalised, and 54 on hospitalised and non-hospitalised combined (mixed). On average, at least 45% of COVID-19 survivors, regardless of hospitalisation status, went on to experience at least one unresolved symptom (mean follow-up 126 days). Fatigue was frequently reported across hospitalised (28.4%; 95% CI 24.7%-32.5%), non-hospitalised (34.8%; 95% CI 17.6%-57.2%), and mixed (25.2%; 95% CI 17.7%-34.6%) cohorts. Amongst the hospitalised cohort, abnormal CT patterns/x-rays were frequently reported (45.3%; 95% CI 35.3%-55.7%), alongside ground glass opacification (41.1%; 95% CI 25.7%-58.5%), and impaired diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (31.7%; 95% CI 25.8%-3.2%). Interpretation: Our work shows that 45% of COVID-19 survivors, regardless of hospitalisation status, were experiencing a range of unresolved symptoms at ∼ 4 months. Current understanding is limited by heterogeneous study design, follow-up durations, and measurement methods. Definition of subtypes of Long Covid is unclear, subsequently hampering effective treatment/management strategies. Funding: No funding.

Individual frailty phenotype components and mortality in adults with type 2 diabetes: A UK Biobank study.

AIMS: This study aimed to explore associations between frailty components and mortality and rank prognostic relevance of each frailty component in predicting mortality in adults with and without type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS: We used data from the UK Biobank. Associations and prognostic discrimination of individual Fried's frailty components and the overall frailty status with all-cause and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality were investigated using Cox proportional-hazard models and C-index in adults with and without T2D. RESULTS: In both populations the strongest association with all-cause mortality across all frailty components and overall frailty status was observed for slow walking pace (without T2D Hazard Ratio [HR] 2.25, 95 %CI: 2.12-2.38 and with T2D HR 1.95, 95 %CI: 1.67-2.28). Similarly, slow walking pace was associated with a greater risk of CVD mortality. The combination of T2D and slow walking pace had the strongest association with all-cause and CVD mortality, compared to the combination of T2D and other frailty components or overall frailty status. Slow walking pace also provided the greatest prognostic discrimination. CONCLUSION: Slow walking pace has a stronger predictive factor for all-cause and CVD mortality compared to other frailty components and overall frailty status, especially when simultaneously present with T2D.

Underweight and obesity are related to higher mortality in patients undergoing coronary angiography: The KARDIO invasive cardiology register study.

BACKGROUND: In patients with some cardiovascular disease conditions, slightly elevated body mass index (BMI) is associated with a lower mortality risk (termed "obesity paradox"). It is uncertain, however, if this obesity paradox exists in patients who have had invasive cardiology procedures. We evaluated the association between BMI and mortality in patients who underwent coronary angiography. METHODS: We utilised the KARDIO registry, which comprised data on demographics, prevalent diseases, risk factors, coronary angiographies, and interventions on 42,636 patients. BMI was categorised based on WHO cut-offs or transformed using P-splines. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for all-cause mortality. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.9 years, 4688 all-cause deaths occurred. BMI was nonlinearly associated with mortality risk: compared to normal weight category (18.5-25 kg/m2 ), the age-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) for all-cause mortality were 1.90 (1.49, 2.43), 0.96 (0.92, 1.01), 1.04 (0.99, 1.09), 1.08 (0.96, 1.20), and 1.45 (1.22, 1.72) for underweight (<18.5 kg/m2 ), preobesity (25 to <30 kg/m2 ), obesity class I (30 to <35 kg/m2 ), obesity class II (35 to <40 kg/m2 ), and obesity class III (>40 kg/m2 ), respectively. The corresponding multivariable adjusted HRs (95% CIs) were 2.00 (1.55, 2.58), 0.92 (0.88, 0.97) 1.01 (0.95, 1.06), 1.10 (0.98, 1.23), and 1.49 (1.26, 1,78), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In patients undergoing coronary angiography, underweight and obesity class III are associated with increased mortality risk, and the lowest mortality was observed in the preobesity class. It appears the obesity paradox may be present in patients who undergo invasive coronary procedures.

Using national electronic health records for pandemic preparedness: validation of a parsimonious model for predicting excess deaths among those with COVID-19-a data-driven retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To use national, pre- and post-pandemic electronic health records (EHR) to develop and validate a scenario-based model incorporating baseline mortality risk, infection rate (IR) and relative risk (RR) of death for prediction of excess deaths. DESIGN: An EHR-based, retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Linked EHR in Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD); and linked EHR and COVID-19 data in England provided in NHS Digital Trusted Research Environment (TRE). PARTICIPANTS: In the development (CPRD) and validation (TRE) cohorts, we included 3.8 million and 35.1 million individuals aged ≥30 years, respectively. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: One-year all-cause excess deaths related to COVID-19 from March 2020 to March 2021. RESULTS: From 1 March 2020 to 1 March 2021, there were 127,020 observed excess deaths. Observed RR was 4.34% (95% CI, 4.31-4.38) and IR was 6.27% (95% CI, 6.26-6.28). In the validation cohort, predicted one-year excess deaths were 100,338 compared with the observed 127,020 deaths with a ratio of predicted to observed excess deaths of 0.79. CONCLUSIONS: We show that a simple, parsimonious model incorporating baseline mortality risk, one-year IR and RR of the pandemic can be used for scenario-based prediction of excess deaths in the early stages of a pandemic. Our analyses show that EHR could inform pandemic planning and surveillance, despite limited use in emergency preparedness to date. Although infection dynamics are important in the prediction of mortality, future models should take greater account of underlying conditions.

Physical activity volume, intensity, and incident cardiovascular disease.

AIMS: The interplay between physical activity (PA) volume and intensity is poorly understood in relation to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. This study aimed to investigate the role of PA intensity, over and above volume, in relation to incident CVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were from 88 412 UK Biobank middle-aged adults (58% women) without prevalent CVD who wore accelerometers on their dominant wrist for 7 days, from which we estimated total PA energy expenditure (PAEE) using population-specific validation. Cox proportional hazards regressions modelled associations between PAEE (kJ/kg/day) and PA intensity (%MVPA; the fraction of PAEE accumulated from moderate-to-vigorous-intensity PA) with incident CVD (ischaemic heart disease or cerebrovascular disease), adjusted for potential confounders. There were 4068 CVD events during 584 568 person-years of follow-up (median 6.8 years). Higher PAEE and higher %MVPA (adjusted for PAEE) were associated with lower rates of incident CVD. In interaction analyses, CVD rates were 14% (95% confidence interval: 5-23%) lower when MVPA accounted for 20% rather than 10% of 15 kJ/kg/d PAEE; equivalent to converting a 14 min stroll into a brisk 7 min walk. CVD rates did not differ significantly between values of PAEE when the %MVPA was fixed at 10%. However, the lowest CVD rates were observed for combinations of both higher PAEE and %MVPA. CONCLUSION: Reductions in CVD risk may be achievable through higher PA volume and intensity, with the role of moderately intense PA appearing particularly important. This supports multiple approaches or strategies to PA participation, some of which may be more practical or appealing to different individuals.

Glycosylated haemoglobin and prognosis in 10,536 people with cancer and pre-existing diabetes: a meta-analysis with dose-response analysis.

AIMS: To assess whether glycaemic control is associated with prognosis in people with cancer and pre-existing diabetes. METHODS: In this pre-registered systematic review (PROSPERO: CRD42020223956), PubMed and Web of Science were searched on 25th Nov 2021 for studies investigating associations between glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and prognosis in people with diabetes and cancer. Summary relative risks (RRs) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) for associations between poorly controlled HbA1c or per 1-unit HbA1c increment and cancer outcomes were estimated using a random-effects meta-analysis. We also investigated the impact of potential small-study effects using the trim-and-fill method and potential sources of heterogeneity using subgroup analyses. RESULTS: Fifteen eligible observational studies, reporting data on 10,536 patients with cancer and pre-existing diabetes, were included. Random-effects meta-analyses indicated that HbA1c ≥ 7% (53 mmol/mol) was associated with increased risks of: all-cause mortality (14 studies; RR: 1.14 [95% CI: 1.03-1.27]; p-value: 0.012), cancer-specific mortality (5; 1.68 [1.13-2.49]; p-value: 0.011) and cancer recurrence (8; 1.68 [1.18-2.38; p-value: 0.004]), with moderate to high heterogeneity. Dose-response meta-analyses indicated that 1-unit increment of HbA1c (%) was associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality (13 studies; 1.04 [1.01-1.08]; p-value: 0.016) and cancer-specific mortality (4; 1.11 [1.04-1.20]; p-value: 0.003). All RRs were attenuated in trim-and-fill analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggested that glycaemic control might be a modifiable risk factor for mortality and cancer recurrence in people with cancer and pre-existing diabetes. High-quality studies with a larger sample size are warranted to confirm these findings due to heterogeneity and potential small-study effects. In the interim, it makes clinical sense to recommend continued optimal glycaemic control.

Patient-rated satisfaction and improvement following hip and knee replacements: Development of prediction models.

RATIONALE: Effective preoperative assessments of determinants of health status and function may improve postoperative outcomes. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: We developed risk scores of preoperative patient factors and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) as predictors of patient-rated satisfaction and improvement following hip and knee replacements. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Prospectively collected National Health Service and independent sector patient data (n = 30,457), including patients' self-reported demographics, comorbidities, PROMs (Oxford Hip/Knee score (OHS/OKS) and European Quality of Life (EQ5D index and health-scale), were analysed. Outcomes were defined as patient-reported satisfaction and improvement following surgery at 7-month follow-up. Univariable and multivariable-adjusted logistic regressions were undertaken to build prediction models; model discrimination was evaluated with the concordance index (c-index) and nomograms were developed to allow the estimation of probabilities. RESULTS: Of the 14,651 subjects with responses for satisfaction following hip replacements 564 (3.8%) reported dissatisfaction, and 1433 (9.2%) of the 15,560 following knee replacement reported dissatisfaction. A total of 14,662 had responses for perceived improvement following hip replacement (lack of improvement in 391; 2.7%) and 15,588 following knee replacement (lack of improvements in 1092; 7.0%). Patients reporting poor outcomes had worse preoperative PROMs. Several factors, including age, gender, patient comorbidities and EQ5D, were included in the final prediction models: C-indices of these models were 0.613 and 0.618 for dissatisfaction and lack of improvement, respectively, for hip replacement and 0.614 and 0.598, respectively, for knee replacement. CONCLUSIONS: Using easily accessible preoperative patient factors, including PROMs, we developed models which may help predict dissatisfaction and lack of improvement following hip and knee replacements and facilitate risk stratification and decision-making processes.

Risk of Long COVID in People Infected With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 After 2 Doses of a Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccine: Community-Based, Matched Cohort Study.

We investigated long COVID incidence by vaccination status in a random sample of UK adults from April 2020 to November 2021. Persistent symptoms were reported by 9.5% of 3090 breakthrough severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections and 14.6% of unvaccinated controls (adjusted odds ratio, 0.59 [95% confidence interval, .50-.69]), emphasizing the need for public health initiatives to increase population-level vaccine uptake.

Differences in the risk of cardiovascular disease across ethnic groups: UK Biobank observational study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: To describe sociodemographic, lifestyle, environmental and traditional clinical risk factor differences between ethnic groups and to investigate the extent to which such differences confound the association between ethnic groups and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 440,693 white European (55.9% women), 7305 South Asian (48.6%) and 7628 black African or Caribbean (57.7%) people were included from UK Biobank. Associations between ethnicity and cardiovascular outcomes (composite of non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction and CVD death) were explored using Cox-proportional hazard models. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic, lifestyle, environmental and clinical risk factors. Over a median (IQR) of 12.6 (11.8, 13.3) follow-up years, there were 22,711 (5.15%) cardiovascular events in white European, 463 (6.34%) in South Asian and 302 (3.96%) in black African or Caribbean individuals. For South Asian people, the cardiovascular hazard ratio (HR) compared to white European people was 1.28 (99% CI [1.16, 1.43]). For black African or Caribbean people, the HR was 0.80 (0.66, 0.97). The elevated risk of CVD in South Asians remained after adjusting for differences in sociodemographic, lifestyle, environmental and clinical factors, whereas the lower risk in black African or Caribbean was largely attenuated. CONCLUSIONS: South Asian, but not black African or Caribbean individuals, have a higher risk of CVD compared to white European individuals. This higher risk in South Asians was independent of sociodemographic, lifestyle, environmental and clinical factors.

All-cause and cardiorenal mortality in 6 million adults with and without type 2 diabetes: A comparative, trend analysis in Canada, Spain, and the UK.

AIMS: To understand geographical and temporal patterns in the diabetes gap, the excess mortality risk associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D), in three high-income countries. METHODS: Using databases from Canada (Ontario), Spain (Catalonia) and the UK (England), we harmonized the study design and the analytical strategy to extract information on subjects aged over 35 years with incident T2D between 1998 and 2018 matched to up to five subjects without diabetes. We used Poisson models to estimate age-specific mortality trends by diabetes status and rate ratios and rate differences associated with T2D. RESULTS: In more than 6 million people, 694 454 deaths occurred during a follow-up of 52 million person-years. Trends in all-cause mortality rates differed between Ontario and England; yet, the diabetes gaps were very similar in recent years: in 2018, we estimated 1.3 (95% confidence interval: 0.8, 1.8) and 0.8 (0.2, 1.5) more deaths per 1000 person-years in 50-year-old men with diabetes in Ontario and England, respectively, and 8.9 (6.1, 11.7) and 12.1 (9.1, 15.1) in 80-year-old men; between-country differences were small also in women. In Catalonia, rate ratios comparing T2D with no diabetes in men in 2018 were 1.53 (1.11, 2.11) at 50 years old, 0.88 (0.72, 1.06) at 60 years old, 0.74 (0.60, 0.90) at 70 years old and 0.81 (0.66, 1.00) at 80 years old, indicating lower mortality rates in men with T2D from the age of 60 years; rates were similar in women with and without diabetes at all ages. The diabetes gaps in cardiorenal mortality mirrored those of all-cause mortality: we observed consistent reductions in the proportions of cardiorenal deaths in subjects aged 80 years but variations in subjects aged ≤70 years, regardless of the presence of diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: By reducing the confounding impact of epidemiological and analytical differences, this study showed geographical similarities and differences in the diabetes gap: an excess risk of all-cause and cardiorenal mortality in subjects with T2D is still present in Ontario and England in recent years, particularly in elderly subjects. Conversely, there were very small gaps in young men with T2D or even lower mortality rates in older subjects with T2D in Catalonia.

Risk of Myocarditis After Sequential Doses of COVID-19 Vaccine and SARS-CoV-2 Infection by Age and Sex.

BACKGROUND: Myocarditis is more common after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection than after COVID-19 vaccination, but the risks in younger people and after sequential vaccine doses are less certain. METHODS: A self-controlled case series study of people ages 13 years or older vaccinated for COVID-19 in England between December 1, 2020, and December 15, 2021, evaluated the association between vaccination and myocarditis, stratified by age and sex. The incidence rate ratio and excess number of hospital admissions or deaths from myocarditis per million people were estimated for the 1 to 28 days after sequential doses of adenovirus (ChAdOx1) or mRNA-based (BNT162b2, mRNA-1273) vaccines, or after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. RESULTS: In 42 842 345 people receiving at least 1 dose of vaccine, 21 242 629 received 3 doses, and 5 934 153 had SARS-CoV-2 infection before or after vaccination. Myocarditis occurred in 2861 (0.007%) people, with 617 events 1 to 28 days after vaccination. Risk of myocarditis was increased in the 1 to 28 days after a first dose of ChAdOx1 (incidence rate ratio, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.09-1.62]) and a first, second, and booster dose of BNT162b2 (1.52 [95% CI, 1.24-1.85]; 1.57 [95% CI, 1.28-1.92], and 1.72 [95% CI, 1.33-2.22], respectively) but was lower than the risks after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test before or after vaccination (11.14 [95% CI, 8.64-14.36] and 5.97 [95% CI, 4.54-7.87], respectively). The risk of myocarditis was higher 1 to 28 days after a second dose of mRNA-1273 (11.76 [95% CI, 7.25-19.08]) and persisted after a booster dose (2.64 [95% CI, 1.25-5.58]). Associations were stronger in men younger than 40 years for all vaccines. In men younger than 40 years old, the number of excess myocarditis events per million people was higher after a second dose of mRNA-1273 than after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test (97 [95% CI, 91-99] versus 16 [95% CI, 12-18]). In women younger than 40 years, the number of excess events per million was similar after a second dose of mRNA-1273 and a positive test (7 [95% CI, 1-9] versus 8 [95% CI, 6-8]). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the risk of myocarditis is greater after SARS-CoV-2 infection than after COVID-19 vaccination and remains modest after sequential doses including a booster dose of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine. However, the risk of myocarditis after vaccination is higher in younger men, particularly after a second dose of the mRNA-1273 vaccine.