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World Economy and International Relations ; 66(4):5-13, 2022.
Article in Russian | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1841758


While significant, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic globalization and regional integration is temporary. The same objective factors that existed before the pandemic will determine integration trends in the future. The key role belongs to scientific and technical progress, and the effect of the pandemic was rather on the stimulating side here. Research in the field of medicine accelerated, online mode is already all-pervading and digitalization tends to become ubiquitous. The crisis has brought closer the onset of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which is expected to open the next stage of globalization, entailing shifts in the structure and dynamics of world production and trade. It can be assumed that new technologies will contribute to the development of the organization of global value chains (GVC), one of the main drivers of economic globalization and regional integration. Probable changes in the way of life and the corresponding shifts in consumption patterns in favor of services will also contribute to modifications in the structure of GVCs. Apparently, we should expect an increase in the processes of glocalization, which can be briefly defined as globalization with local specifics. COVID-19, which has caused disruptions in supply chains, has strengthened the course of self-reliance in the economic policy of some countries. The inconsistency between the method used by governments (protectionism) and the driving forces of the phenomenon that they are trying to resist (scientific and technological progress) leads to losses in productivity and competitiveness. It is necessary to distinguish between re-industrialization, stimulated by artificial methods, from re-industrialization, which has objective reasons and corresponds to the evolution of the world economy. The latter is not equivalent either to the return of previously exported production facilities or to the re-creation of the “pre-globalization” economic structure and cannot be regarded as a manifestation of de-globalization tendencies. The world realized the need to strengthen international cooperation and develop measures aimed at joint preparation and a coordinated response to possible new threats. Outbreaks of protectionism prove to be temporary. The long-term trend towards international trade liberalization will continue. © 2022.

Mirovaya Ekonomika I Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya ; 65(10):15-23, 2021.
Article in Russian | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1558964


The article examines the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for the development of international trade. The international trading system has demonstrated sufficient maturity and the ability to remain stable even in extreme conditions. The negative impact of COVID-19 on trade was provided through a general drop in demand, disruptions in global value chains, export restrictions, rising trade costs, tightening sanitary requirements and restrictions on tourism and business travel. Attempts to foster economic stability and enhance the resilience of global value chains through self-reliance and limiting supply network within national boundaries are counterproductive. The solution to the efficiency versus safety dilemma lies in the area of diversication. In the medium term after the expected rapid recovery growth the development of international trade is likely to slow down and the growth rates of trade and production will trend towards convergence. The long-term impact of the pandemic on international trade will be manifested through the impact of structural factors: the Fourth Industrial Revolution, trends in the field of transnational production, changes in the paradigm of social development, competition between economic policy models, rivalry between leaders of the world economy, and the results of efforts to regulate trade on the multilateral basis. The pandemic made more obvious the need for cooperation, not only in the narrow aspect of coordinating anti-epidemic measures, but also in the broader sense of promoting development and narrowing the gap in welfare, health care and the quality of life in general, both in different countries and within countries. In the area of trade policy, it highlighted the urgent need for closer cooperation in overcoming barriers to trade (lowering duties, removing technical barriers, mutual recognition of sanitary certificates, interfacing digital regulation systems). The disunity and noticeable confusion of governments during the pandemic emphasized the task of overcoming the WTO crisis.