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1.
International Journal of Engineering Business Management ; 15, 2023.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2323009

ABSTRACT

Flight demand forecasting is a particularly critical component for airline revenue management because of the direct influence on the booking limits that determine airline profits. The traditional flight demand forecasting models generally only take day of the week (DOW) and the current data collection point (DCP) adds up bookings as the model input and uses linear regression, exponential smoothing, pick-up as well as other models to predict the final bookings of flights. These models can be regarded as time series flight demand forecasting models based on the interval between the current date and departure date. They fail to consider the early bookings change features in the specific flight pre-sale period, and have weak generalization ability, at last, they will lead to poor adaptability to the random changes of flight bookings. The support vector regression (SVR) model, which is derived from machine learning, has strong adaptability to nonlinear random changes of data and can adaptively learn the random disturbances of flight bookings. In this paper, flight bookings are automatically divided into peak, medium, and off (PMO) according to the season attribute. The SVR model is trained by using the vector composed of historical flight bookings and adding up bookings of DCP in the early stage of the flight pre-sale period. Compared with the traditional models, the priori information of flight is increased. We collect 2 years of domestic route bookings data of an airline in China before COVID-19 as the training and testing datasets, and divide these data into three categories: tourism, business, and general, the numerical results show that the SVR model significantly improves the forecasting accuracy and reduces RMSE compared with the traditional models. Therefore, this study provides a better choice for flight demand forecasting.

2.
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital ; 12(4):544-551, 2021.
Article in Chinese | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-2320811

ABSTRACT

With the outbreak and rapid spread of the COVID-19 worldwide, a large amount of relevant research evidence has quickly emerged. However, due to the uneven quality of evidence, poor quality and slow speed of evidence translation, it is a big challenge for health decision-makers, clinicians, and patients to make evidence-based decisions. Based on rapid systematic review of evidence, the rapid advice-guidelines can promptly and effectively transform the latest current evidence into recommendations guiding clinical practice. In the face of global public health emergencies, by building a new type of evidence ecosystem, a completely closed loop of evidence from production and evaluation to application and transformation is formed to improve the level of medical practice and reduce the waste of health resources.Copyright © 2021, Peking Union Medical College Hospital. All rights reserved.

3.
Medical Journal of Wuhan University ; 43(6):874-877, 2022.
Article in Chinese | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2316786

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) epidemic situation is a public health emergency, it brings serious psychological crisis to the perintal maternal, the severe psychological crisis of patients will be detrimental to their health. In the article, the authors analyzed the causes of the psychological crisis from various aspects for the perintal maternal with COVID-19, put forward some strategies on how to effectively copy with the mental crisis, and finally presented the necessary considerations for certain fields which were underestimated in clinical work now. © 2022 Editorial Board of Medical Journal of Wuhan University. All rights reserved.

4.
Bmj ; 370 (no pagination), 2020.
Article in English | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-2267877

ABSTRACT

Clinical question What is the role of drug interventions in the treatment and prevention of covid-19? Recommendations The first version on this living guidance focuses on corticosteroids. It contains a strong recommendation for systemic corticosteroids in patients with severe and critical covid-19, and a weak or conditional recommendation against systemic corticosteroids in patients with non-severe covid-19. Corticosteroids are inexpensive and are on the World Health Organisation list of essential medicines. How this guideline was created This guideline reflects an innovative collaboration between the WHO and the MAGIC Evidence Ecosystem Foundation, driven by an urgent need for global collaboration to provide trustworthy and living covid-19 guidance. A standing international panel of content experts, patients, clinicians, and methodologists, free from relevant conflicts of interest, produce recommendations for clinical practice. The panel follows standards, methods, processes, and platforms for trustworthy guideline development using the GRADE approach. We apply an individual patient perspective while considering contextual factors (that is, resources, feasibility, acceptability, equity) for countries and healthcare systems. The evidence A living systematic review and network meta-analysis, supported by a prospective meta-analysis, with data from eight randomised trials (7184 participants) found that systemic corticosteroids probably reduce 28 day mortality in patients with critical covid-19 (moderate certainty evidence;87 fewer deaths per 1000 patients (95% confidence interval 124 fewer to 41 fewer)), and also in those with severe disease (moderate certainty evidence;67 fewer deaths per 1000 patients (100 fewer to 27 fewer)). In contrast, systemic corticosteroids may increase the risk of death in patients without severe covid-19 (low certainty evidence;absolute effect estimate 39 more per 1000 patients, (12 fewer to 107 more)). Systemic corticosteroids probably reduce the need for invasive mechanical ventilation, and harms are likely to be minor (indirect evidence). Understanding the recommendations The panel made a strong recommendation for use of corticosteroids in severe and critical covid-19 because there is a lower risk of death among people treated with systemic corticosteroids (moderate certainty evidence), and they believe that all or almost all fully informed patients with severe and critical covid-19 would choose this treatment. In contrast, the panel concluded that patients with non-severe covid-19 would decline this treatment because they would be unlikely to benefit and may be harmed. Moreover, taking both a public health and a patient perspective, the panel warned that indiscriminate use of any therapy for covid-19 would potentially rapidly deplete global resources and deprive patients who may benefit from it most as potentially lifesaving therapy. Updates This is a living guideline. Work is under way to evaluate other interventions. New recommendations will be published as updates to this guideline. Readers note This is version 1 of the living guideline, published on 4 September (BMJ 2020;370:m3379) version 1. Updates will be labelled as version 2, 3 etc. When citing this article, please cite the version number. Submitted August 28 Accepted August 31Copyright © Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to.

5.
Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci ; 27(2): 818-825, 2023 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2237093

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Transplant recipients have a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection owing to the use of immunosuppressive drugs like tacrolimus (FK506). FK506 and nirmatrelvir (NMV) (an anti-SARS-CoV-2 drug) are metabolized by cytochrome P450 3A4 and may have potential drug-drug interactions. It is important to determine the effect of NMV on FK506 concentrations. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Following protein precipitation from blood, FK506 and its internal standard (FK506-13C,2d4) were detected by ultra-high performance liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS/MS). Total 22 blood samples (valley concentrations) from two coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients were collected and analyzed for FK506 concentrations. RESULTS: Blood levels of FK506 (0.5-100 ng/mL) showed good linearity. The UHPLC-MS/MS method was validated with intra- and inter-batch accuracies of 104.55-107.85%, and 99.52-108.01%, respectively, and precisions of < 15%. Mean blood FK506 concentration was 12.01 ng/mL (range, 3.15-33.1 ng/mL). Five-day co-administration with NMV increased the FK506 concentrations from 3.15 ng/mL to 33.1 ng/mL, returning to 3.36 ng/mL after a 9-day-washout. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a simple quantification method for therapeutic drug monitoring of FK506 in patients with COVID-19 using UHPLC-MS/MS with protein precipitation. We found that NMV increased FK506 blood concentration 10-fold. Therefore, it is necessary to re-consider co-administration of FK506 with NMV.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Tacrolimus , Humans , Chromatography, High Pressure Liquid/methods , Tandem Mass Spectrometry/methods , SARS-CoV-2 , Lactams , Leucine , Reproducibility of Results , Drug Monitoring
6.
Journal of Graphics ; 43(4):590-598, 2022.
Article in Chinese | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2145246

ABSTRACT

Mask wearing in public has become an important measure to control the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). With the prolonged development of the COVID-19 epidemic, the public’s awareness of self-protection has been gradually declining, leading to the increasing tendency of wearing masks incorrectly in public. The existing mask wearing detection methods usually only detect whether the mask is worn, without the detection of non-standard mask wearing scenarios, which is likely to cause cross infection. The current mask datasets lack the image data of non-standard mask wearing. To solve the above problems, on the basis of the existing mask datasets, more non-standard mask wearing images were collected through the Internet and offline, and the Mosaic data enhancement algorithm was improved to expand the data according to the features of face images in the cases of wearing masks. The improved Mosaic data enhancement algorithm could improve the mean average precision (mAP) of the benchmark network YOLOv4 by 2.08%. To address the problem of category imbalance in the dataset after data enhancement, the dynamic weighted balance loss function was proposed. Based on the weight binary cross entropy loss function, the reciprocal of the number of effective samples served as the auxiliary category weight, and dynamic adjustment was performed in each batch under training, thus solving the problems of weak stability, precision oscillation, and unsatisfactory effect when the re-weighting method was directly put to use. The experiment showed that mAP of the improved model reached 91.25%, and the average precision (AP) of non-standard mask wearing reached 91.69%. Compared with such single-stage methods as RetinaNet, Centernet, and Effcientdet, and such two-stage methods as YOLOv3-MobileNetV2 and YOLOv4-MobileNetV2, the improved algorithm exhibits higher detection accuracy and speed. © 2022, Editorial of Board of Journal of Graphics. All rights reserved.

7.
Physical Review Research ; 4(3), 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2063145

ABSTRACT

It is evident that increasing the intensive-care-unit (ICU) capacity and giving priority to admitting and treating patients will reduce the number of COVID-19 deaths, but the quantitative assessment of these measures has remained inadequate. We develop a comprehensive, non-Markovian state transition model, which is validated through the accurate prediction of the daily death toll for two epicenters: Wuhan, China and Lombardy, Italy. The model enables prediction of COVID-19 deaths in various scenarios. For example, if appropriate treatment priorities had been used, the death toll in Wuhan and Lombardy would have been reduced by about 10% and 7%, respectively. The strategy depends on the epidemic scale and is more effective in countries with a younger population structure. Analyses of data from China, South Korea, Italy, and Spain suggest that countries with less per capita ICU medical resources should implement this strategy in the early stage of the pandemic to reduce mortalities. We emphasize that the results of this paper should be interpreted purely from a scientific and a quantitative-analysis point of view. No ethical implications are intended and meaningful. © 2022 authors. Published by the American Physical Society. Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published article's title, journal citation, and DOI.

8.
Frontiers in Environmental Science ; 10, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2055009

ABSTRACT

With the rapid development of internet finance in China, the risk management of internet finance has become an urgent issue. This study analyzes the factors that affect the default risk of Chinese internet finance companies based on measuring the distance to default of companies. This study incorporates ESG rating into the evaluation model to comprehensively reflect the default risk factors. The traditional KMV model is modified with ESG rating, and results are used to construct the panel logit model. Based on internet finance firms listed on China A-Shares data from 2016 to 2020, our results show the following: first, the modified ESG-KMV logit model can effectively analyze the influencing factors of the internet finance default risk. Second, ROE, accounts receivable turnover ratio, asset-liability ratio and z-value are important factors that affect the default risk of internet finance companies. Third, it is also found that COVID-19 has significantly impacted the default risk of internet finance companies. As a policy implication, the regulator can incorporate ESG into the measurement of the default risk to create more awareness among internet finance companies on the importance of the environment and sustainability to human societies. Copyright © 2022 Zeng, Lau and Abdul Bahri.

9.
10th International Conference of Educational Innovation through Technology, EITT 2021 ; : 112-116, 2021.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1769574

ABSTRACT

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, all schools in China shifted to online learning in the spring of 2020. For many schools located in the rural areas of western China, however, it was their first attempt at online learning, and the critical question regarding the effectiveness of online learning on academic performance remains to be answered. In this study, we tracked 125 Grade 10 students in a rural high school in western China, and we compared their academic performance before and after the online learning practice. In addition, four hierarchical regression models were computed to explore the influencing factors of post-pandemic academic performance in different subjects. The results indicated that online learning did not increase students' academic performance in the rural high school and significant drop of performance was seen in mathematics and English. Students' demographic features had little influence on the change of academic performance, as prior academic performance remained the most important predictor of the post-pandemic academic performance. © 2021 IEEE.

10.
2021 International Conference on Signal Processing and Machine Learning, CONF-SPML 2021 ; : 310-315, 2021.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1769550

ABSTRACT

The outbreak of Covld-19 has put tremendous pressure on medical systems around the world. The highly infectious nature of this respiratory disease challenges advanced diagnostic technology to achieve rapid, scalable, affordable, and high-precision testing. In previous studies, Tsiknakis used Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and transfer learning to achieved high accuracy in distinguishing the lung X-ray images of Covid-19 infectors and healthy people. However, its accuracy is not so high in quaternary classification (Bacterial Pneumonia, Covidl9, Normal, and Viral Pneumonia). It can hardly distinguish between bacterial pneumonia and viral pneumonia. Based on CNN, transfer learning, and interpretable machine learning methods, this work precisely implements data processing and augmentation and adds a second binary classifier following a confidence level. In this way, the accuracy and recall rate of the quaternary classification are significantly improved, especially for bacterial pneumonia and viral pneumonia, and the model also becomes more interpretable. © 2021 IEEE.

11.
Chinese Journal of Disease Control and Prevention ; 25(4):400-404, 2021.
Article in Chinese | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1566853

ABSTRACT

Objective  To describe the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in Shaanxi Province and further explore its relevant factors, so as to provide evidence for the prevention and control of COVID-19 in Shaanxi Province.  Methods  The information of confirmed COVID-19 cases and relevant socioeconomic data in Shaanxi Province were collected. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of confirmed cases, and the correlation between the incidence of COVID-19 and socioeconomic factors in the population were analyzed by using a generalized linear model.  Results  Four cases were first reported in Shaanxi on 23 January 2020, with the highest number of new confirmed cases reaching 23 on 4 February and no new cases after 19 February. The imported cases appeared earlier and reached the new peak than the local cases, and entered the zero stage earlier than the local cases. The spatial distribution showed that Xi′ an (120 cases) had the largest number of confirmed cases, accounting for 48.98% of the total cases, and the districts with more confirmed cases were in Lianhu, Yanta, Xincheng and Weiyang. Socioeconomic factors which significantly associated with the number of confirmed cases in each district and country were education expenditure (IRR=0.287, 95% CI: 0.134-0.612), GDP per capita (IRR=1.143, 95% CI: 1.049-1.245) and the distance from Wuhan (IRR=0.995, 95% CI: 0.992-0.998).  Conclusion  Measures should be taken in key areas and population at the early stage of the epidemic to control the spread of the epidemic as soon as possible. © 2021, Publication Centre of Anhui Medical University. All rights reserved.

12.
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital ; 12(4):544-551, 2021.
Article in Chinese | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1513189

ABSTRACT

With the outbreak and rapid spread of the COVID-19 worldwide, a large amount of relevant research evidence has quickly emerged. However, due to the uneven quality of evidence, poor quality and slow speed of evidence translation, it is a big challenge for health decision-makers, clinicians, and patients to make evidence-based decisions. Based on rapid systematic review of evidence, the rapid advice-guidelines can promptly and effectively transform the latest current evidence into recommendations guiding clinical practice. In the face of global public health emergencies, by building a new type of evidence ecosystem, a completely closed loop of evidence from production and evaluation to application and transformation is formed to improve the level of medical practice and reduce the waste of health resources. © 2021, Peking Union Medical College Hospital. All rights reserved.

13.
14.
Zhonghua Jie He He Hu Xi Za Zhi ; 44(3): 230-236, 2021 Mar 12.
Article in Chinese | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1134266

ABSTRACT

Objective: To explore a modified CT scoring system, its feasibility for disease severity evaluation and its predictive value in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. Methods: This study was a multi-center retrospective cohort study. Patients confirmed with COVID-19 were recruited in three medical centers located in Beijing, Wuhan and Nanchang from January 27, 2020 to March 8, 2020. Demographics, clinical data, and CT images were collected. CT were analyzed by two emergency physicians of more than ten years' work experience independently through a modified scoring system. Final score was determined by average score from the two reviewers if consensus was not reached. The lung was divided into 6 zones (upper, middle, and lower on both sides) by the level of trachea carina and the level of lower pulmonary veins. The target lesion types included ground-glass opacity (GGO), consolidation, overall lung involvement, and crazy-paving pattern. Bronchiectasis, cavity, pleural effusion, etc., were not included in CT reading and analysis because of low incidence. The reviewers evaluated the extent of the targeted patterns (GGO, consolidation) and overall affected lung parenchyma for each zone, using Likert scale, ranging from 0-4 (0=absent; 1=1%-25%; 2=26%-50%; 3=51%-75%; 4=76%-100%). Thus, GGO score, consolidation score, and overall lung involvement score were sum of 6 zones ranging from 0-24. For crazy-paving pattern, it was only coded as absent or present (0 or 1) for each zone and therefore ranging from 0-6. Results: A total of 197 patients from 3 medical centers and 522 CT scans entered final analysis. The median age of the patients was 64 years, and 54.8% were male. There were 76(38.8%) patients had hypertension and 30(15.3%) patients had diabetes mellitus. There were 75 of the patients classified as moderate cases, as well as 95 severe cases and 27 critical cases. As initial symptom, dry cough occurred in 170 patients, 134 patients had fever, and 125 patients had dyspnea. Reparatory rate, oxygen saturation, lymphocyte count and CURB 65 score on admission day varied among patients with different disease severity scale. There were 50 of the patients suffered from deterioration during hospital stay. The median time consumed for each CT by clinicians was 86.5 seconds. Cronbach's alpha for GGO, consolidation, crazy-paving pattern, and overall lung involvement between two clinicians were 0.809, 0.712, 0.678, and 0.906, respectively, showing good or excellent inter-rater correlation. There were 193 (98.0%) patients had GGO, 147 (74.6%) had consolidation, and 126(64.0%) had crazy-paving pattern throughout clinical course. Bilateral lung involvement was observed in 183(92.9%) patients. Median time of interval for CT scan in our study was 7 days so that the whole clinical course was divided into stages by week for further analysis. From the second week on, the CT scores of various types of lesions in severe or critically patients were higher than those of moderate cases. After the fifth week, the course of disease entered the recovery period. The CT score of the upper lung zones was lower than that of other zones in moderate and severe cases. Similar distribution was not observed in critical patients. For moderate cases, the ground glass opacity score at the second week had predictive value for the escalation of the severity classification during hospitalization. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.849, the best cut-off value was 5 points, with sensitivity of 84.2% and specificity of 75.0%. Conclusions: It is feasible for clinicians to use the modified semi-quantitative CT scoring system to evaluate patients with COVID-19. Severe/critical patients had higher scores for ground glass opacity, consolidation, crazy-paving pattern, and overall lung involvement than moderate cases. The ground glass opacity score in the second week had an optimal predictive value for escalation of disease severity during hospitalization in moderate patients on admission. The frequency of CT scan should be reduced after entering the recovery stage.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Lung/diagnostic imaging , Radiography, Thoracic/standards , Tomography, X-Ray Computed/methods , China , Female , Humans , Male , Predictive Value of Tests , Radiography, Thoracic/methods , SARS-CoV-2 , Spatial Analysis
15.
4th International Conference on Education and Multimedia Technology, ICEMT 2020 ; : 51-56, 2020.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-901443

ABSTRACT

The global COVID-19 outbreak is seriously endangering human being's life, work and study. China has already taken positive activities, such as "suspend schools, no cease to learn", to ensure the health and safety of teachers and students and learning rights of students. This study is aimed to explore the significant influence factors of Chinese college students' uptake of online learning at this special epidemic moment. After extending the Technology Acceptance Model, this study proposes a hypothesis model with seven variables. The data was collected across 431 college students through an electronic questionnaire. By using partial least square method to test, the results suggest that perceived usefulness, subjective norms, facilitating conditions and self-efficacy are the significant influence factors of students' online learning acceptance at this moment. The findings would be helpful for colleges and universities suffering from the pandemic to arrange and organize educational activities. © 2020 ACM.

16.
Food and Agricultural Immunology ; 31(1):533-544, 2020.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-823618

ABSTRACT

The 2019 new coronavirus epidemic potentially induced by wild animals has drawn tremendous attention. Wild animal meat contamination and adulteration have become increasingly serious, particularly for highly cooked wild animal meats that are difficult to be detected. In this study, a highly specific polyclonal antibody targeting the cooked rat proteins was developed. The corresponding sandwich ELISA (swELISA) was developed and found highly sensitive and specific for cooked rat meat, while there are no cross-reactions to the cooked chicken, pork and beef meats. The limit of detection (LOD) is determined to be as low as 0.01 ug/L based OD values. The coefficient variation (CV) is 5% and 8% for intra and inter assays, respectively. The recovery efficiencies are between 90% and 110%. The sandwich ELISA can detect both raw and cooked rat meat and is also suitable for Swab test of rat contamination. The results indicated a highly reliable and robust ELISA-based assay for cooked rat meat identification and contamination. © 2020, © 2020 The Author(s). Published with license by Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

17.
Beijing da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Peking University. Health sciences ; 52(4):780-784, 2020.
Article in Chinese | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-724913

ABSTRACT

The novel coronavirus is a newly discovered pathogen in late December 2019, and its source is currently unknown, which can lead to asymptomatic infection, new coronavirus pneumonia or serious complications, such as acute respiratory failure. Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a new type of respiratory disease that is currently spreading all over the world and caused by this coronavirus. Its common symptoms are highly similar to those of other viruses, such as fever, cough and dyspnea. There is currently no vaccine or treatment for COVID-19. Everyone is susceptible to infection with this disease, and owing to the long-term use of immunosuppressants, the immunity of kidney transplant recipients is suppressed, and it is more likely to be infected with the disease. At present, its impact on kidney transplant recipients is unclear. This article reports the clinical features and therapeutic course of novel coronavirus infection in a patient after renal transplantation. A 37-year-old female patient who received a kidney transplant 6 months before was diagnosed with novel coronavirus pneumonia. The patient's symptoms (such as fever, chills, dry cough, muscle aches), laboratory tests (such as decreased white blood cell count, elevated liver enzymes and D-dimer, positive viral nucleic acid test), and chest CT (multiple left lower lung plaque ground glass shadow) were similar to those of non-transplanted novel coronavirus pneumonia patients. In terms of treatment, because the immunity of kidney transplant recipients has been suppressed for a long time, it is a very common strategy to suspend the use of immunosuppressive agents. Therefore, the patient immediately discontinued the immunosuppressive agent after admission, so that she could restore immunity against infection in a short time. At the same time, the use of glucocorticoids was also very important. Its immunosuppressive and anti-inflammatory effects played a large role in the treatment process.In addition, prophylactic antibiotics was needed, and nephrotoxic drugs should be used with caution. Finally, following discounting the use of immunosuppressant and a low-dose glucocorticoid-based treatment regimen, COVID-19 in this renal transplant recipient was successfully cured. The cure of this case was of great significance, and this adjuvant nonspecific antiviral therapy could provide a template for the treatment of other such patients.

18.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi ; 41(5): 657-661, 2020 May 10.
Article in Chinese | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-546795

ABSTRACT

Objective: To assess the imported risk of COVID-19 in Guangdong province and its cities, and conduct early warning. Methods: Data of reported COVID-19 cases and Baidu Migration Index of 21 cities in Guangdong province and other provinces of China as of February 25, 2020 were collected. The imported risk index of each city in Guangdong province were calculated, and then correlation analysis was performed between reported cases and the imported risk index to identify lag time. Finally, we classified the early warming levels of epidemic by imported risk index. Results: A total of 1 347 confirmed cases were reported in Guangdong province, and 90.0% of the cases were clustered in the Pearl River Delta region. The average daily imported risk index of Guangdong was 44.03. Among the imported risk sources of each city, the highest risk of almost all cities came from Hubei province, except for Zhanjiang from Hainan province. In addition, the neighboring provinces of Guangdong province also had a greater impact. The correlation between the imported risk index with a lag of 4 days and the daily reported cases was the strongest (correlation coefficient: 0.73). The early warning base on cumulative 4-day risk of each city showed that Dongguan, Shenzhen, Zhongshan, Guangzhou, Foshan and Huizhou have high imported risks in the next 4 days, with imported risk indexes of 38.85, 21.59, 11.67, 11.25, 6.19 and 5.92, and the highest risk still comes from Hubei province. Conclusions: Cities with a large number of migrants in Guangdong province have a higher risk of import. Hubei province and neighboring provinces in Guangdong province are the main source of the imported risk. Each city must strengthen the health management of migrants in high-risk provinces and reduce the imported risk of Guangdong province.


Subject(s)
Communicable Diseases, Imported , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , COVID-19 , China/epidemiology , Cities , Epidemiological Monitoring , Humans , Pandemics , Risk Assessment
19.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi ; 54(4): 362-366, 2020 Apr 06.
Article in Chinese | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-324688

ABSTRACT

Objective: To evaluate the exported risk of COVID-19 from Hubei Province and the imported risk in various provinces across China. Methods: Data of reported COVID-19 cases and Baidu Migration Indexin all provinces of the country as of February 14, 2020 were collected. The correlation analysis between cumulative number of reported cases and the migration index from Hubei was performed, and the imported risks from Hubei to different provinces across China were further evaluated. Results: A total of 49 970 confirmed cases were reported nationwide, of which 37 884 were in Hubei Province. The average daily migration index from Hubei to other provinces was 312.09, Wuhan and other cities in Hubei were 117.95 and 194.16, respectively. The cumulative COVID-19 cases of provinces was positively correlated with the migration index derived from Hubei Province, also in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei, with correlation coefficients of 0.84, 0.84, and 0.81. In linear model, population migration from Hubei Province, Wuhan and other cities in Hubei account for 71.2%, 70.1%, and 66.3% of the variation, respectively. The period of high exported risk from Hubei occurred before January 27, of which the risks before January 23 mainly came from Wuhan, and then mainly from other cities in Hubei. Hunan Province, Henan Province and Guangdong Province ranked the top three in terms of cumulative imported risk (the cumulative risk indices were 58.61, 54.75 and 49.62 respectively). Conclusion: The epidemic in each province was mainly caused by the importation of Hubei Province. Taking measures such as restricting the migration of population in Hubei Province and strengthening quarantine measures for immigrants from Hubei Province may greatly reduce the risk of continued spread of the epidemic.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Risk Assessment , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , China/epidemiology , Cities , Humans , Linear Models , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
20.
Zhonghua Er Ke Za Zhi ; 58(5): 347-350, 2020 May 02.
Article in Chinese | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-248777

ABSTRACT

Objective: To investigate the application of pulmonary ultrasound in the diagnosis of neonatal COVID-19. Methods: In this retrospective study, the clinical data of 5 infants, who were admitted to the Department of Neonatology in Wuhan Children's Hospital from 31(st) January to 25(th) February 2020, were collected. Bedsides pulmondary ultrasound was conducted on admission, during the hospitalization, and before discharge, the result were compared with the chest X-ray or CT done at the same time. Results: Among the 5 cases who aged 1-18 days, 3 were male. The main clinical manifestations were respiratory and gastrointestinal symptoms. The pulmonary ultrasonography on admission showed abnormal pleural line and pulmonary edema of different severity in all 5 cases, presented as increase and fusion of B-line, and pulmonary interstitial syndrome; among them, one case also had a small-range consolidation. The chest CT on admission showed no obvious parenchymal infiltration in 2 cases, small strip or patchy high-density shadow in 2 cases, and ground glass change in one case. The re-examination of ultrosound during the hospitalization and at discharge showed improvement in all cases and were consistent with the chest X-ray taken at the same time. Conclusions: The main changes on the pulmonary ultrasonography in neonates with COVID-19 pneumonia are increase and fusion of B-line, abnormal pleural line, and alveolar interstitial syndrome, and may coexist with small range of pulmonary consolidation. The sensitivity of pulmonary ultrasound is higher than that of chest X-ray and CT in the diagnosis of pulmonary edema, and could be used in monitoring and evaluation of the disease.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections , Coronavirus , Lung/diagnostic imaging , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral , Thorax/diagnostic imaging , Ultrasonography/methods , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Hospitalization , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Male , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Tomography, X-Ray Computed
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