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Emerg Microbes Infect ; 9(1): 1537-1545, 2020 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-611841


Background: Novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) is prevalent around the world. We aimed to describe epidemiological features and clinical course in Shanghai. Methods: We retrospectively analysed 325 cases admitted at Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, between January 20 and February 29, 2020. Results: 47.4% (154/325) had visited Wuhan within 2 weeks of illness onset. 57.2% occurred in 67 clusters; 40% were situated within 53 family clusters. 83.7% developed fever during the disease course. Median times from onset to first medical care, hospitalization and negative detection of nucleic acid by nasopharyngeal swab were 1, 4 and 8 days. Patients with mild disease using glucocorticoid tended to have longer viral shedding in blood and feces. At admission, 69.8% presented with lymphopenia and 38.8% had elevated D-dimers. Pneumonia was identified in 97.5% (314/322) of cases by chest CT scan. Severe-critical patients were 8% with a median time from onset to critical disease of 10.5 days. Half required oxygen therapy and 7.1% high-flow nasal oxygen. The case fatality rate was 0.92% with median time from onset to death of 16 days. Conclusion: COVID-19 cases in Shanghai were imported. Rapid identification, and effective control measures helped to contain the outbreak and prevent community transmission.

Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , China/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/complications , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Health Status Indicators , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Retrospective Studies , Time Factors , Treatment Outcome , Virus Shedding , Young Adult
Infection ; 48(4): 577-584, 2020 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-327091


OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop a simple algorithm to help early identification of SARS-CoV-2 infection patients with severe progression tendency. METHODS: The univariable and multivariable analysis were computed to identify the independent predictors of COVID-19 progression. The prediction model was established in a retrospective training set of 322 COVID-19 patients and was re-evaluated in a prospective validation set of 317 COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: The multivariable analysis identified age (OR = 1.061, p = 0.028), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (OR = 1.006, p = 0.037), and CD4 count (OR = 0.993, p = 0.006) as the independent predictors of COVID-19 progression. Consequently, the age-LDH-CD4 algorithm was derived as (age × LDH)/CD4 count. In the training set, the area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of age-LDH-CD4 model was significantly higher than that of single CD4 count, LDH, or age (0.92, 0.85, 0.80, and 0.75, respectively). In the prospective validation set, the AUROC of age-LDH-CD4 model was also significantly higher than that of single CD4 count, LDH, or age (0.92, 0.75, 0.81, and 0.82, respectively). The age-LDH-CD4 ≥ 82 has high sensitive (81%) and specific (93%) for the early identification of COVID-19 patients with severe progression tendency. CONCLUSIONS: The age-LDH-CD4 model is a simple algorithm for early identifying patients with severe progression tendency following SARS-CoV-2 infection, and warrants further validation.

Algorithms , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Disease Progression , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Adult , Age Factors , Betacoronavirus , CD4 Lymphocyte Count , Female , Humans , L-Lactate Dehydrogenase/analysis , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Predictive Value of Tests , Prospective Studies , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors