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1.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-324821

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a world-wide pandemic. Hospitalized patients of COVID-19 suffer from a high mortality rate, motivating the development of convenient and practical methods for clinicians to promptly identify high-risk patients. Here we developed a risk score using clinical data from 1,479 inpatients admitted to Tongji Hospital, Wuhan, China (development cohort) and externally validated with data from two other centers: 141 inpatients from Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan (validation cohort 1) and 432 inpatients from the Third People’s Hospital Shenzhen (validation cohort 2). The risk score is based on three biomarkers readily available in routine blood samples and can be easily translated into a probability of death. The risk score can predict the mortality of individual patients more than 12 days in advance with more than 90% accuracy across all cohorts. Moreover, the Kaplan-Meier score shows that patients upon admission can clearly be differenciated into low, medium or high risk, with an AUC score of 0.9551. In summary, a simple risk score was validated to predict death in patients infected with COVID-19 and was validated in independent cohorts.

2.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-313435

ABSTRACT

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused global pandemic, resulting in considerable mortality. The risk factors, clinical treatments and especially comprehensive risk models for COVID-19 death are urgently warranted. Methods In this retrospective study, 281 non-survivors and 712 survivors with propensity score matching by age, sex and comorbidities were enrolled from January 13, 2020 to March 31, 2020. Results Higher SOFA, qSOFA, APACHE II and SIRS scores, hypoxia, elevated inflammatory cytokines, multi-organ dysfunction, decreased immune cells subsets and complications were significantly associated with the higher COVID-19 death risk. In addition to traditional predictors for death risk, including APACHE II (AUC = 0.83), SIRS (AUC = 0.75), SOFA (AUC = 0.70) and qSOFA scores (AUC = 0.61), another four prediction models that included immune cells subsets (AUC = 0.90), multiple organ damage biomarkers (AUC = 0.89), complications (AUC = 0.88) and inflammatory-related indexes (AUC = 0.75) were established. Additionally, the predictive accuracy of combining these risk factors (AUC = 0.950) was also significantly higher than that of each risk group alone, outperforming previous risk models, which was significant for early clinical management for COVID-19. Conclusions The potential risk factors could help to predict the clinical prognosis of COVID-19 patients at an early stage. The combined model might be more suitable for the death risk evaluation of COVID-19.

3.
BMC Infect Dis ; 21(1): 951, 2021 Sep 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1412707

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a global pandemic, resulting in considerable mortality. The risk factors, clinical treatments, especially comprehensive risk models for COVID-19 death are urgently warranted. METHODS: In this retrospective study, 281 non-survivors and 712 survivors with propensity score matching by age, sex, and comorbidities were enrolled from January 13, 2020 to March 31, 2020. RESULTS: Higher SOFA, qSOFA, APACHE II and SIRS scores, hypoxia, elevated inflammatory cytokines, multi-organ dysfunction, decreased immune cell subsets, and complications were significantly associated with the higher COVID-19 death risk. In addition to traditional predictors for death risk, including APACHE II (AUC = 0.83), SIRS (AUC = 0.75), SOFA (AUC = 0.70) and qSOFA scores (AUC = 0.61), another four prediction models that included immune cells subsets (AUC = 0.90), multiple organ damage biomarkers (AUC = 0.89), complications (AUC = 0.88) and inflammatory-related indexes (AUC = 0.75) were established. Additionally, the predictive accuracy of combining these risk factors (AUC = 0.950) was also significantly higher than that of each risk group alone, which was significant for early clinical management for COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: The potential risk factors could help to predict the clinical prognosis of COVID-19 patients at an early stage. The combined model might be more suitable for the death risk evaluation of COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Sepsis , Humans , Intensive Care Units , Organ Dysfunction Scores , Prognosis , ROC Curve , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2
4.
BMC Infect Dis ; 21(1): 951, 2021 Sep 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1406708

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a global pandemic, resulting in considerable mortality. The risk factors, clinical treatments, especially comprehensive risk models for COVID-19 death are urgently warranted. METHODS: In this retrospective study, 281 non-survivors and 712 survivors with propensity score matching by age, sex, and comorbidities were enrolled from January 13, 2020 to March 31, 2020. RESULTS: Higher SOFA, qSOFA, APACHE II and SIRS scores, hypoxia, elevated inflammatory cytokines, multi-organ dysfunction, decreased immune cell subsets, and complications were significantly associated with the higher COVID-19 death risk. In addition to traditional predictors for death risk, including APACHE II (AUC = 0.83), SIRS (AUC = 0.75), SOFA (AUC = 0.70) and qSOFA scores (AUC = 0.61), another four prediction models that included immune cells subsets (AUC = 0.90), multiple organ damage biomarkers (AUC = 0.89), complications (AUC = 0.88) and inflammatory-related indexes (AUC = 0.75) were established. Additionally, the predictive accuracy of combining these risk factors (AUC = 0.950) was also significantly higher than that of each risk group alone, which was significant for early clinical management for COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: The potential risk factors could help to predict the clinical prognosis of COVID-19 patients at an early stage. The combined model might be more suitable for the death risk evaluation of COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Sepsis , Humans , Intensive Care Units , Organ Dysfunction Scores , Prognosis , ROC Curve , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2
5.
Front Med ; 16(1): 111-125, 2022 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1356049

ABSTRACT

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread globally. Although mixed liver impairment has been reported in COVID-19 patients, the association of liver injury caused by specific subtype especially chronic hepatitis B (CHB) with COVID-19 has not been elucidated. In this multi-center, retrospective, and observational cohort study, 109 CHB and 327 non-CHB patients with COVID-19 were propensity score matched at an approximate ratio of 3:1 on the basis of age, sex, and comorbidities. Demographic characteristics, laboratory examinations, disease severity, and clinical outcomes were compared. Furthermore, univariable and multivariable logistic and Cox regression models were used to explore the risk factors for disease severity and mortality, respectively. A higher proportion of CHB patients (30 of 109 (27.52%)) developed into severe status than non-CHB patients (17 of 327 (5.20%)). In addition to previously reported liver impairment markers, such as alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, and total bilirubin, we identified several novel risk factors including elevated lactate dehydrogenase (⩾ 245 U/L, hazard ratio (HR) = 8.639, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.528-29.523; P < 0.001) and coagulation-related biomarker D-dimer (⩾ 0.5 µg/mL, HR = 4.321, 95% CI = 1.443-12.939; P = 0.009) and decreased albumin (< 35 g/L, HR = 0.131, 95% CI = 0.048-0.361; P < 0.001) and albumin/globulin ratio (< 1.5, HR = 0.123, 95% CI = 0.017-0.918; P = 0.041). In conclusion, COVID-19 patients with CHB were more likely to develop into severe illness and die. The risk factors that we identified may be helpful for early clinical surveillance of critical progression.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Hepatitis B, Chronic , Cohort Studies , Hepatitis B, Chronic/complications , Hepatitis B, Chronic/epidemiology , Humans , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors
6.
Clin Imaging ; 77: 169-174, 2021 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1095912

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The accurate knowledge of demographic, signs and symptoms, imaging characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is essential for the accurate management of these patients. However, the claims between the previous papers are not always consistent and may even contradict each other, for example, some claims the virus infects more men than women in Wuhan. In this large-scale cohort study, we aimed to update the demographic, signs and symptoms, imaging characteristics of patients with COVID-19 in the whole quarantine of Wuhan, China. METHODS: A cohort of 2126 patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia (confirmed by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction, RT-PCR) who were admitted to one hospital in Wuhan were retrospectively enrolled. Data were collected between January 13, 2020, and April 8, 2020, the end of Wuhan quarantine. Demographic, signs and symptoms, imaging characteristics were analyzed. CT imaging characteristics associated with respiratory failure or death were identified. RESULTS: Of the 2126 patients with COVID-19, 1051 (49.44%) were men and 1075 (50.56%) were women, 1933 (90.92%) have fever and 1328 (62.46%) have dry cough. The mean age was 57.43 years of age (range 1-95). The CT imaging findings were bilateral pneumonia (1883[88.57%]), unilateral pneumonia (243[11.43%]), ground-glass opacity (GGO) or consolidation (1175[55.27%]), pleural effusion (69[3.25%]). Patients with respiratory failure or death were more likely to have pleural effusion on CT than patients without respiratory failure or death (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Men and women have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 in roughly equal numbers. Fever and cough are the most prevalent symptoms at disease onset in patients. Other prevalent symptoms include fatigue, and sputum production. COVID-19 patients with bilateral pneumonia and pleural effusion are more likely to develop respiratory failure or death.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pneumonia , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Child , Child, Preschool , China/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Demography , Female , Humans , Infant , Lung , Male , Middle Aged , Pneumonia/diagnostic imaging , Pneumonia/epidemiology , Quarantine , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Tomography, X-Ray Computed , Young Adult
7.
Engineering (Beijing) ; 8: 116-121, 2022 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-947208

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a worldwide pandemic. Hospitalized patients of COVID-19 suffer from a high mortality rate, motivating the development of convenient and practical methods that allow clinicians to promptly identify high-risk patients. Here, we have developed a risk score using clinical data from 1479 inpatients admitted to Tongji Hospital, Wuhan, China (development cohort) and externally validated with data from two other centers: 141 inpatients from Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan, China (validation cohort 1) and 432 inpatients from The Third People's Hospital of Shenzhen, Shenzhen, China (validation cohort 2). The risk score is based on three biomarkers that are readily available in routine blood samples and can easily be translated into a probability of death. The risk score can predict the mortality of individual patients more than 12 d in advance with more than 90% accuracy across all cohorts. Moreover, the Kaplan-Meier score shows that patients can be clearly differentiated upon admission as low, intermediate, or high risk, with an area under the curve (AUC) score of 0.9551. In summary, a simple risk score has been validated to predict death in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); it has also been validated in independent cohorts.

8.
Ann Intensive Care ; 10(1): 73, 2020 Jun 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-549161

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-2019) pandemic has swept all over the world, posing a great pressure on critical care resources due to large number of patients needing critical care. Statements from front-line experts in the field of intensive care are urgently needed. METHODS: Sixteen front-line experts in China fighting against the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan were organized to develop an expert statement after 5 rounds of expert seminars and discussions to provide trustworthy recommendation on the management of critically ill COVID-19 patients. Each expert was assigned tasks within their field of expertise to provide draft statements and rationale. Parts of the expert statement are based on epidemiological and clinical evidence, without available scientific evidences. RESULTS: A comprehensive document with 46 statements are presented, including protection of medical personnel, etiological treatment, diagnosis and treatment of tissue and organ functional impairment, psychological interventions, immunity therapy, nutritional support, and transportation of critically ill COVID-19 patients. Among them, 5 recommendations were strong (Grade 1), 21 were weak (Grade 2), and 20 were experts' opinions. A strong agreement from voting participants was obtained for all recommendations. CONCLUSION: There are still no targeted therapies for COVID-19 patients. Dynamic monitoring and supportive treatment for the restoration of tissue vascularization and organ function are particularly important.

9.
Lancet Oncol ; 21(7): 893-903, 2020 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-436717

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has spread globally. Epidemiological susceptibility to COVID-19 has been reported in patients with cancer. We aimed to systematically characterise clinical features and determine risk factors of COVID-19 disease severity for patients with cancer and COVID-19. METHODS: In this multicentre, retrospective, cohort study, we included all adult patients (aged ≥18 years) with any type of malignant solid tumours and haematological malignancy who were admitted to nine hospitals in Wuhan, China, with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 between Jan 13 and March 18, 2020. Enrolled patients were statistically matched (2:1) with patients admitted with COVID-19 who did not have cancer with propensity score on the basis of age, sex, and comorbidities. Demographic characteristics, laboratory examinations, illness severity, and clinical interventions were compared between patients with COVID-19 with or without cancer as well as between patients with cancer with non-severe or severe COVID-19. COVID-19 disease severity was defined on admission on the basis of the WHO guidelines. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression, adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, cancer type, tumour stage, and antitumour treatments, were used to explore risk factors associated with COVID-19 disease severity. This study was registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Register, ChiCTR2000030807. FINDINGS: Between Jan 13 and March 18, 2020, 13 077 patients with COVID-19 were admitted to the nine hospitals in Wuhan and 232 patients with cancer and 519 statistically matched patients without cancer were enrolled. Median follow-up was 29 days (IQR 22-38) in patients with cancer and 27 days (20-35) in patients without cancer. Patients with cancer were more likely to have severe COVID-19 than patients without cancer (148 [64%] of 232 vs 166 [32%] of 519; odds ratio [OR] 3·61 [95% CI 2·59-5·04]; p<0·0001). Risk factors previously reported in patients without cancer, such as older age; elevated interleukin 6, procalcitonin, and D-dimer; and reduced lymphocytes were validated in patients with cancer. We also identified advanced tumour stage (OR 2·60, 95% CI 1·05-6·43; p=0·039), elevated tumour necrosis factor α (1·22, 1·01-1·47; p=0·037), elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (1·65, 1·03-2·78; p=0·032), reduced CD4+ T cells (0·84, 0·71-0·98; p=0·031), and reduced albumin-globulin ratio (0·12, 0·02-0·77; p=0·024) as risk factors of COVID-19 severity in patients with cancer. INTERPRETATION: Patients with cancer and COVID-19 were more likely to deteriorate into severe illness than those without cancer. The risk factors identified here could be helpful for early clinical surveillance of disease progression in patients with cancer who present with COVID-19. FUNDING: China National Natural Science Foundation.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/pathology , Neoplasms/epidemiology , Neoplasms/pathology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/pathology , Aged , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , China/epidemiology , Cities/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/complications , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Neoplasms/complications , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Severity of Illness Index
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