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1.
Infect Dis Poverty ; 10(1): 96, 2021 Jul 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1337526

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The transmission dynamics and severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is different across countries or regions. Differences in governments' policy responses may explain some of these differences. We aimed to compare worldwide government responses to the spread of COVID-19, to examine the relationship between response level, response timing and the epidemic trajectory. METHODS: Free publicly-accessible data collected by the Coronavirus Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) were used. Nine sub-indicators reflecting government response from 148 countries were collected systematically from January 1 to May 1, 2020. The sub-indicators were scored and were aggregated into a common Stringency Index (SI, a value between 0 and 100) that reflects the overall stringency of the government's response in a daily basis. Group-based trajectory modelling method was used to identify trajectories of SI. Multivariable linear regression models were used to analyse the association between time to reach a high-level SI and time to the peak number of daily new cases. RESULTS: Our results identified four trajectories of response in the spread of COVID-19 based on when the response was initiated: before January 13, from January 13 to February 12, from February 12 to March 11, and the last stage-from March 11 (the day WHO declared a pandemic of COVID-19) on going. Governments' responses were upgraded with further spread of COVID-19 but varied substantially across countries. After the adjustment of SI level, geographical region and initiation stages, each day earlier to a high SI level (SI > 80) from the start of response was associated with 0.44 (standard error: 0.08, P < 0.001, R2 = 0.65) days earlier to the peak number of daily new case. Also, each day earlier to a high SI level from the date of first reported case was associated with 0.65 (standard error: 0.08, P < 0.001, R2 = 0.42) days earlier to the peak number of daily new case. CONCLUSIONS: Early start of a high-level response to COVID-19 is associated with early arrival of the peak number of daily new cases. This may help to reduce the delays in flattening the epidemic curve to the low spread level.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Global Health/statistics & numerical data , Government , Health Policy , Humans , Multivariate Analysis , Pandemics , Quarantine , Time Factors
2.
Biomed Environ Sci ; 33(12): 893-905, 2020 Dec 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1060079

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Several COVID-19 patients have overlapping comorbidities. The independent role of each component contributing to the risk of COVID-19 is unknown, and how some non-cardiometabolic comorbidities affect the risk of COVID-19 remains unclear. METHODS: A retrospective follow-up design was adopted. A total of 1,160 laboratory-confirmed patients were enrolled from nine provinces in China. Data on comorbidities were obtained from the patients' medical records. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratio ( OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of the associations between comorbidities (cardiometabolic or non-cardiometabolic diseases), clinical severity, and treatment outcomes of COVID-19. RESULTS: Overall, 158 (13.6%) patients were diagnosed with severe illness and 32 (2.7%) had unfavorable outcomes. Hypertension (2.87, 1.30-6.32), type 2 diabetes (T2DM) (3.57, 2.32-5.49), cardiovascular disease (CVD) (3.78, 1.81-7.89), fatty liver disease (7.53, 1.96-28.96), hyperlipidemia (2.15, 1.26-3.67), other lung diseases (6.00, 3.01-11.96), and electrolyte imbalance (10.40, 3.00-26.10) were independently linked to increased odds of being severely ill. T2DM (6.07, 2.89-12.75), CVD (8.47, 6.03-11.89), and electrolyte imbalance (19.44, 11.47-32.96) were also strong predictors of unfavorable outcomes. Women with comorbidities were more likely to have severe disease on admission (5.46, 3.25-9.19), while men with comorbidities were more likely to have unfavorable treatment outcomes (6.58, 1.46-29.64) within two weeks. CONCLUSION: Besides hypertension, diabetes, and CVD, fatty liver disease, hyperlipidemia, other lung diseases, and electrolyte imbalance were independent risk factors for COVID-19 severity and poor treatment outcome. Women with comorbidities were more likely to have severe disease, while men with comorbidities were more likely to have unfavorable treatment outcomes.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/complications , Adult , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/therapy , COVID-19/virology , China/epidemiology , Comorbidity , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , Severity of Illness Index , Treatment Outcome
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