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1.
JMIR Public Health Surveill ; 2022 May 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35605170

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Most studies of long covid (symptoms of COVID-19 beyond 4 weeks) have focused on people hospitalised in their initial illness. Long covid is thought to be under-recorded in UK primary care electronic records. OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine which symptoms people present to primary care following COVID-19, and whether presentation differs in people who were not hospitalised, and post-long covid mortality. METHODS: We used routine data from the nationally representative Primary Care Sentinel Cohort of the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (N=7.4million), applying a pre-defined long covid phenotype and grouped by whether the illness index was in hospital or community. We included COVID-19 cases between 1st-March-2020 and 1st-April-2021. We conducted a before and after analysis of pre-specified long covid symptoms identified by the Office of National Statistics, comparing symptoms presented between one and six months after their index infection matched with the same months one year previously. We conducted logistic regression analysis, quoting odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals, reporting differences between those with an index community infection compared to those who had been hospitalised, and separately associations with all-cause mortality. RESULTS: 5.6% (416,505/7,396,702) and 1.8% (7,623/416,505) of patients respectively had a coded diagnosis of COVID-19 and diagnosis or referral for long covid. People coded as having long covid were significantly more likely to have presented the pre-specified symptoms after vs before COVID-19 infection (odds ratios 2.66 [2.46-2.88] for those with index community infection and 2.42 [2.03-2.89] for those hospitalised). Following an index community infection, patients were more likely to present with non-specific symptoms (odds ratio 3.44 [3.00-3.95], P<.001) than following a hospital admission (odds ratio 2.09 [1.56-2.80], P<.001). Mental health sequelae were more commonly associated with hospital admission index infections (odds ratio 2.21 [1.64-2.96]) compared to community (odds ratio 1.36 [1.21-1.53], P<.001). People presenting to primary care following hospital infection were more likely to be male (odds ratio 1.43 [1.25-1.64], P<.001), more socioeconomically deprived (odds ratio 1.42 [1.24-1.63], P<.001); and to have multi-morbidity (odds ratio 1.41 [1.26-1.57], P<.001) than those presenting after an index community infection. All-cause mortality in people with long covid was associated with increasing age; male gender (odds ratio 3.32 [1.34-9.24], P<.01) and higher multi-morbidity score (odds ratio 2.11 [1.34-3.29], P<.001). One or more vaccine doses was associated with reduced odds of mortality (odds ratio 0.10 [0.03-0.35], P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: The low percentage of people recorded as having long covid following COVID-19 reflects either low prevalence or under-recording. The characteristics and comorbidities of those presenting with long covid following a community infection are different from those who were hospitalised with their index infection. This study provides insights into the presentation of long covid in primary care and implications for workload. CLINICALTRIAL: Not applicable.

3.
Fam Pract ; 2022 May 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35577349

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Limited recent observational data have suggested that there may be a protective effect of oestrogen on the severity of COVID-19 disease. Our aim was to investigate the association between hormone replacement therapy (HRT) or combined oral contraceptive pill (COCP) use and the likelihood of death in women with COVID-19. METHODS: We undertook a retrospective cohort study using routinely collected computerized medical records from the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) primary care database. We identified a cohort of 1,863,478 women over 18 years of age from 465 general practices in England. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to quantify the association between HRT or COCP use and all-cause mortality among women diagnosed with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 in unadjusted and adjusted models. RESULTS: There were 5,451 COVID-19 cases within the cohort. HRT was associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality in COVID-19 (adjusted OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.94). There were no reported events for all-cause mortality in women prescribed COCPs. This prevented further examination of the impact of COCP. CONCLUSIONS: We found that HRT prescription within 6 months of a recorded diagnosis of COVID-19 infection was associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality. Further work is needed in larger cohorts to examine the association of COCP in COVID-19, and to further investigate the hypothesis that oestrogens may contribute a protective effect against COVID-19 severity.

4.
BMJ Open ; 12(5): e059130, 2022 May 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35534063

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Through the INTernational ConsoRtium of Primary Care BIg Data Researchers (INTRePID), we compared the pandemic impact on the volume of primary care visits and uptake of virtual care in Australia, Canada, China, Norway, Singapore, South Korea, Sweden, the UK and the USA. METHODS: Visit definitions were agreed on centrally, implemented locally across the various settings in INTRePID countries, and weekly visit counts were shared centrally for analysis. We evaluated the weekly rate of primary care physician visits during 2019 and 2020. Rate ratios (RRs) of total weekly visit volume and the proportion of weekly visits that were virtual in the pandemic period in 2020 compared with the same prepandemic period in 2019 were calculated. RESULTS: In 2019 and 2020, there were 80 889 386 primary care physician visits across INTRePID. During the pandemic, average weekly visit volume dropped in China, Singapore, South Korea, and the USA but was stable overall in Australia (RR 0.98 (95% CI 0.92 to 1.05, p=0.59)), Canada (RR 0.96 (95% CI 0.89 to 1.03, p=0.24)), Norway (RR 1.01 (95% CI 0.88 to 1.17, p=0.85)), Sweden (RR 0.91 (95% CI 0.79 to 1.06, p=0.22)) and the UK (RR 0.86 (95% CI 0.72 to 1.03, p=0.11)). In countries that had negligible virtual care prepandemic, the proportion of visits that were virtual were highest in Canada (77.0%) and Australia (41.8%). In Norway (RR 8.23 (95% CI 5.30 to 12.78, p<0.001), the UK (RR 2.36 (95% CI 2.24 to 2.50, p<0.001)) and Sweden (RR 1.33 (95% CI 1.17 to 1.50, p<0.001)) where virtual visits existed prepandemic, it increased significantly during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The drop in primary care in-person visits during the pandemic was a global phenomenon across INTRePID countries. In several countries, primary care shifted to virtual visits mitigating the drop in in-person visits.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Telemedicine , Big Data , COVID-19/epidemiology , Humans , Pandemics , Primary Health Care , SARS-CoV-2
5.
JMIR Public Health Surveill ; 2022 Apr 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35486809

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented impact on the day to day lives of people, with several features potentially adversely affecting mental health. There is growing evidence of the size of the impact of COVID-19 on mental health, but much of this is from ongoing population surveys using validated mental health scores. OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the impact of the pandemic and control measures on mental health conditions presenting to a spectrum of national healthcare services monitored using real-time syndromic surveillance in England. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective observational descriptive study of mental health presentations (those calling the national medical helpline, NHS 111, consulting general practitioners in- and out-of-hours, calling ambulance services and attending emergency departments) between 1 January 2019 to 30 September 2020. Estimates for the impact of lockdown measures were provided using an interrupted time series analysis. RESULTS: Mental health presentations showed a marked decrease during the early stages of the pandemic. Post-lockdown, attendances for mental health conditions reached higher than pre-pandemic levels across most systems; a rise of 10% compared to expected for NHS 111 and 21% for GP out-of-hours whilst the number of consultations to in-hours GPs was 13% lower compared to the same time last year. Increases were observed in calls to NHS 111 for sleep problems. CONCLUSIONS: These analyses showed marked changes in the healthcare attendances and prescribing for common mental health conditions, across a spectrum of healthcare provision, with some of these changes persisting. The reasons for such changes are likely to be complex and multifactorial. The impact of the pandemic on mental health may not be fully understood for some time, and therefore these syndromic indicators should continue to be monitored.

6.
J Allergy Clin Immunol ; 2022 Apr 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35469843

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Atopic dermatitis (AD) is associated with immune dysregulation, but epidemiologic data on the pattern of autoimmune comorbidity in people with AD are limited. OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine the risk of autoimmune conditions in people newly diagnosed with AD. METHODS: Retrospective cohort analysis (January 2009 to December 2018), using the UK-based Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre primary care database. We compared baseline prevalence and incidence after diagnosis of autoimmune conditions in 173,709 children and adults with new-onset AD and 694,836 age-, sex-, and general practitioner practice-matched controls. Outcomes were a composite of any autoimmune condition (Crohn disease, ulcerative colitis, celiac disease, pernicious anemia, type 1 diabetes, autoimmune hypothyroidism, Graves disease, psoriatic arthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, systemic lupus erythematosus, Sjögren syndrome, vitiligo, alopecia areata, and multiple sclerosis) and each individual autoimmune condition. RESULTS: Preexisting autoimmune conditions were more common in people diagnosed with AD compared to controls (composite 5.8% vs 4.3%). Excluding people with preexisting autoimmune disease, there was an association between AD and incidence of new-onset autoimmune disease (composite adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.28; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23-1.34). Risk was highest for more severe AD (aHR 1.99; 95% CI 1.77-2.23) than moderate AD (aHR 1.33; 95% CI 1.19-1.49) or mild AD (aHR 1.22; 95% CI 1.16-1.28). People with AD were at significantly increased risk of developing psoriatic arthritis, Sjögren syndrome, Crohn disease, vitiligo, alopecia areata, pernicious anemia, ulcerative colitis, rheumatoid arthritis, and hypothyroidism (aHR range 1.17-2.06), but not other autoimmune conditions. CONCLUSION: People with AD have an increased risk of multiple autoimmune conditions, especially those with more severe AD.

7.
Br J Gen Pract ; 2022 Mar 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35440469

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Colchicine has been proposed as a COVID-19 treatment. AIM: To determine whether colchicine reduces time to recovery and COVID-19-related admissions to hospital and/or deaths among people in the community. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective, multicentre, open-label, multi-arm, randomised, controlled, adaptive platform trial (PRINCIPLE). METHOD: Adults aged ≥65 years or ≥18 years with comorbidities or shortness of breath, and unwell for ≤14 days with suspected COVID-19 in the community, were randomised to usual care, usual care plus colchicine (500 µg daily for 14 days), or usual care plus other interventions. The co-primary endpoints were time to first self-reported recovery and admission to hospital/death related to COVID-19, within 28 days, analysed using Bayesian models. RESULTS: The trial opened on 2 April 2020. Randomisation to colchicine started on 4 March 2021 and stopped on 26 May 2021 because the prespecified time to recovery futility criterion was met. The primary analysis model included 2755 participants who were SARS-CoV-2 positive, randomised to colchicine (n = 156), usual care (n = 1145), and other treatments (n = 1454). Time to first self-reported recovery was similar in the colchicine group compared with usual care with an estimated hazard ratio of 0.92 (95% credible interval (CrI) = 0.72 to 1.16) and an estimated increase of 1.4 days in median time to self-reported recovery for colchicine versus usual care. The probability of meaningful benefit in time to recovery was very low at 1.8%. COVID-19-related admissions to hospital/deaths were similar in the colchicine group versus usual care, with an estimated odds ratio of 0.76 (95% CrI = 0.28 to 1.89) and an estimated difference of -0.4% (95% CrI = -2.7 to 2.4). CONCLUSION: Colchicine did not improve time to recovery in people at higher risk of complications with COVID-19 in the community.

8.
IEEE Rev Biomed Eng ; PP2022 Apr 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35439140

ABSTRACT

Tissue examination by hand remains an essential technique in clinical practice. The effective application depends on skills in sensorimotor coordination, mainly involving haptic, visual, and auditory feedback. The skills clinicians have to learn can be as subtle as regulating finger pressure with breathing, choosing palpation action, monitoring involuntary facial and vocal expressions in response to palpation, and using pain expressions both as a source of information and as a constraint on physical examination. Patient simulators can provide a safe learning platform to novice physicians before trying real patients. This paper reviews state-of-the-art medical simulators for the training for the first time with a consideration of providing multimodal feedback to learn as many manual examination techniques as possible. The study summarizes current advances in tissue examination training devices simulating different medical conditions and providing different types of feedback modalities. Opportunities with the development of pain expression, tissue modeling, actuation, and sensing are also analyzed to support the future design of effective tissue examination simulators.

9.
JMIR Res Protoc ; 11(4): e35971, 2022 Apr 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35417404

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Social distancing and other nonpharmaceutical interventions to reduce the spread of COVID-19 infection in the United Kingdom have led to substantial changes in delivering ongoing care for patients with chronic conditions, including type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Clinical guidelines for the management and prevention of complications for people with T2DM delivered in primary care services advise routine annual reviews and were developed when face-to-face consultations were the norm. The shift in consultations from face-to-face to remote consultations caused a reduction in direct clinical contact and may impact the process of care for people with T2DM. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic's first year on the monitoring of people with T2DM using routine annual reviews from a national primary care perspective in England. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of adults with T2DM will be performed using routinely collected primary care data from the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC). We will describe the change in the rate of monitoring of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) between the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020) and the preceding year (2019). We will also report any change in the eight checks that make up the components of these reviews. The change in HbA1c monitoring rates will be determined using a multilevel logistic regression model, adjusting for patient and practice characteristics, and similarly, the change in a composite measure of the completeness of all eight checks will be modeled using ordinal regression. The models will be adjusted for the following patient-level variables: age, gender, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, COVID-19 shielding status, duration of diabetes, and comorbidities. The model will also be adjusted for the following practice-level variables: urban versus rural, practice size, Quality and Outcomes Framework achievement, the National Health Service region, and the proportion of face-to-face consultations. Ethical approval was provided by the University of Oxford Medical Sciences Interdivisional Research Ethics Committee (September 2, 2021, reference R77306/RE001). RESULTS: The analysis of the data extract will include 3.96 million patients with T2DM across 700 practices, which is 6% of the available Oxford-RCGP RSC adult population. The preliminary results will be submitted to a conference under the domain of primary care. The resulting publication will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal on diabetes and endocrinology. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the delivery of care, but little is known about the process of caring for people with T2DM. This study will report the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on these processes of care. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/35971.

10.
J Infect ; 84(6): 814-824, 2022 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35405169

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To monitor changes in seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in populations over time and between different demographic groups. METHODS: A subset of practices in the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) sentinel network provided serum samples, collected when volunteer patients had routine blood tests. We tested these samples for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using Abbott (Chicago, USA), Roche (Basel, Switzerland) and/or Euroimmun (Luebeck, Germany) assays, and linked the results to the patients' primary care computerised medical records. We report seropositivity by region and age group, and additionally examined the effects of gender, ethnicity, deprivation, rurality, shielding recommendation and smoking status. RESULTS: We estimated seropositivity from patients aged 18-100 years old, which ranged from 4.1% (95% CI 3.1-5.3%) to 8.9% (95% CI 7.8-10.2%) across the different assays and time periods. We found higher Euroimmun seropositivity in younger age groups, people of Black and Asian ethnicity (compared to white), major conurbations, and non-smokers. We did not observe any significant effect by region, gender, deprivation, or shielding recommendation. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that prior to the vaccination programme, most of the population remained unexposed to SARS-CoV-2.

11.
Diabetes Obes Metab ; 2022 Apr 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35373891

ABSTRACT

AIM: To determine whether achieving early glycaemic control, and any subsequent glycaemic variability, was associated with any change in the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort analysis from the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre database-a large, English primary care network-was conducted. We followed newly diagnosed patients with type 2 diabetes, on or after 1 January 2005, aged 25 years or older at diagnosis, with HbA1c measurements at both diagnosis and after 1 year, plus five or more measurements of HbA1c thereafter. Three glycaemic bands were created: groups A (HbA1c < 58 mmol/mol [<7.5%]), B (HbA1c ≥ 58 to 75 mmol/mol [7.5%-9.0%]) and C (HbA1c ≥ 75 mmol/mol [≥9.0%]). Movement between bands was determined from diagnosis to 1 year. Additionally, for data after the first 12 months, a glycaemic variability score was calculated from the number of successive HbA1c readings differing by 0.5% or higher (≥5.5 mmol/mol). Risk of MACE from 1 year postdiagnosis was assessed using time-varying Cox proportional hazards models, which included the first-year transition and the glycaemic variability score. RESULTS: From 26 180 patients, there were 2300 MACE. Compared with group A->A transition over 1 year, those with C->A transition had a reduced risk of MACE (HR 0.75; 95% CI 0.60-0.94; P = .014), whereas group C->C had HR 1.21 (0.81-1.81; P = .34). Compared with the lowest glycaemic variability score, the greatest variability increased the risk of MACE (HR 1.51; 1.11-2.06; P = .0096). CONCLUSION: Early control of HbA1c improved cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes, although subsequent glycaemic variability had a negative effect on an individual's risk.

12.
Arch Dis Child ; 2022 Mar 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35361613

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To describe rates and variation in uptake of pneumococcal and measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccines in children and associated change in vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) across the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Retrospective database study of all children aged <19 registered with a general practice in the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre English national sentinel surveillance network between 2 November 2015 and 18 July 2021. RESULTS: Coverage of booster dose of pneumococcal vaccine decreased from 94.5% (95% CI 94.3% to 94.7%) at its height on International Organization for Standardization (ISO) week 47 (2020) to 93.6% (95% CI 93.4% to 93.8%) by the end of the study. Coverage of second dose of MMR decreased from 85.0% (95% CI 84.7% to 85.3%) at its height on ISO week 37 (2020) to 84.1% (95% CI 83.8% to 84.4%) by the end of the study. The break point in trends for MMR was at ISO week 34 (2020) (95% CI weeks 32-37 (2020)), while for pneumococcal vaccine the break point was later at ISO week 3 (2021) (95% CI week 53 (2020) to week 8 (2021)). Vaccination coverage for children of white ethnicity was less likely to decrease than other ethnicities. Rates of consultation for VPDs fell and remained low since August 2020. CONCLUSION: Childhood vaccination rates started to fall ahead of the onset of the second wave; this fall is accentuating ethnic, socioeconomic and geographical disparities in vaccine uptake and risks widening health disparities. Social distancing and school closures may have contributed to lower rates of associated VPDs, but there may be increased risk as these measures are removed.

13.
JMIR Public Health Surveill ; 8(3): e25803, 2022 Mar 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35343907

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Vaccination is the most effective form of prevention of seasonal influenza; the United Kingdom has a national influenza vaccination program to cover targeted population groups. Influenza vaccines are known to be associated with some common minor adverse events of interest (AEIs), but it is not known if the adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (aTIV), first offered in the 2018/2019 season, would be associated with more AEIs than other types of vaccines. OBJECTIVE: We aim to compare the incidence of AEIs associated with different types of seasonal influenza vaccines offered in the 2018/2019 season. METHODS: We carried out a retrospective cohort study using computerized medical record data from the Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre sentinel network database. We extracted data on vaccine exposure and consultations for European Medicines Agency-specified AEIs for the 2018/2019 influenza season. We used a self-controlled case series design; computed relative incidence (RI) of AEIs following vaccination; and compared the incidence of AEIs associated with aTIV, the quadrivalent influenza vaccine, and the live attenuated influenza vaccine. We also compared the incidence of AEIs for vaccinations that took place in a practice with those that took place elsewhere. RESULTS: A total of 1,024,160 individuals received a seasonal influenza vaccine, of which 165,723 individuals reported a total of 283,355 compatible symptoms in the 2018/2019 season. Most AEIs occurred within 7 days following vaccination, with a seasonal effect observed. Using aTIV as the reference group, the quadrivalent influenza vaccine was associated with a higher incidence of AEIs (RI 1.46, 95% CI 1.41-1.52), whereas the live attenuated influenza vaccine was associated with a lower incidence of AEIs (RI 0.79, 95% CI 0.73-0.83). No effect of vaccination setting on the incidence of AEIs was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Routine sentinel network data offer an opportunity to make comparisons between safety profiles of different vaccines. Evidence that supports the safety of newer types of vaccines may be reassuring for patients and could help improve uptake in the future.


Subject(s)
Influenza Vaccines , Influenza, Human , Humans , Influenza Vaccines/adverse effects , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Retrospective Studies , Seasons , Vaccination/adverse effects
14.
Br J Psychiatry ; : 1-8, 2022 Mar 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35249568

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has disproportionately affected people with mental health conditions. AIMS: We investigated the association between receiving psychotropic drugs, as an indicator of mental health conditions, and COVID-19 vaccine uptake. METHOD: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of a prospective cohort of the Northern Ireland adult population using national linked primary care registration, vaccination, secondary care and pharmacy dispensing data. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses investigated the association between anxiolytic, antidepressant, antipsychotic, and hypnotic use and COVID-19 vaccination status, accounting for age, gender, deprivation and comorbidities. Receiving any COVID-19 vaccine was the primary outcome. RESULTS: There were 1 433 814 individuals, of whom 1 166 917 received a COVID-19 vaccination. Psychotropic medications were dispensed to 267 049 people. In univariable analysis, people who received any psychotropic medication had greater odds of receiving COVID-19 vaccination: odds ratio (OR) = 1.42 (95% CI 1.41-1.44). However, after adjustment, psychotropic medication use was associated with reduced odds of vaccination (ORadj = 0.90, 95% CI 0.89-0.91). People who received anxiolytics (ORadj = 0.63, 95% CI 0.61-0.65), antipsychotics (ORadj = 0.75, 95% CI 0.73-0.78) and hypnotics (ORadj = 0.90, 95% CI 0.87-0.93) had reduced odds of being vaccinated. Antidepressant use was not associated with vaccination (ORadj = 1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.03). CONCLUSIONS: We found significantly lower odds of vaccination in people who were receiving treatment with anxiolytic and antipsychotic medications. There is an urgent need for evidence-based, tailored vaccine support for people with mental health conditions.

15.
PLoS Med ; 19(2): e1003927, 2022 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35192598

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Several countries restricted the administration of ChAdOx1 to older age groups in 2021 over safety concerns following case reports and observed versus expected analyses suggesting a possible association with cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST). Large datasets are required to precisely estimate the association between Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and CVST due to the extreme rarity of this event. We aimed to accomplish this by combining national data from England, Scotland, and Wales. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We created data platforms consisting of linked primary care, secondary care, mortality, and virological testing data in each of England, Scotland, and Wales, with a combined cohort of 11,637,157 people and 6,808,293 person years of follow-up. The cohort start date was December 8, 2020, and the end date was June 30, 2021. The outcome measure we examined was incident CVST events recorded in either primary or secondary care records. We carried out a self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis of this outcome following first dose vaccination with ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2. The observation period consisted of an initial 90-day reference period, followed by a 2-week prerisk period directly prior to vaccination, and a 4-week risk period following vaccination. Counts of CVST cases from each country were tallied, then expanded into a full dataset with 1 row for each individual and observation time period. There was a combined total of 201 incident CVST events in the cohorts (29.5 per million person years). There were 81 CVST events in the observation period among those who a received first dose of ChAdOx1 (approximately 16.34 per million doses) and 40 for those who received a first dose of BNT162b2 (approximately 12.60 per million doses). We fitted conditional Poisson models to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Vaccination with ChAdOx1 was associated with an elevated risk of incident CVST events in the 28 days following vaccination, IRR = 1.93 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20 to 3.11). We did not find an association between BNT162b2 and CVST in the 28 days following vaccination, IRR = 0.78 (95% CI 0.34 to 1.77). Our study had some limitations. The SCCS study design implicitly controls for variables that are constant over the observation period, but also assumes that outcome events are independent of exposure. This assumption may not be satisfied in the case of CVST, firstly because it is a serious adverse event, and secondly because the vaccination programme in the United Kingdom prioritised the clinically extremely vulnerable and those with underlying health conditions, which may have caused a selection effect for individuals more prone to CVST. Although we pooled data from several large datasets, there was still a low number of events, which may have caused imprecision in our estimates. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed a small elevated risk of CVST events following vaccination with ChAdOx1, but not BNT162b2. Our analysis pooled information from large datasets from England, Scotland, and Wales. This evidence may be useful in risk-benefit analyses of vaccine policies and in providing quantification of risks associated with vaccination to the general public.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Sinus Thrombosis, Intracranial/etiology , Adult , Aged , COVID-19 Vaccines/adverse effects , Case-Control Studies , Cohort Studies , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , United Kingdom , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data , Wales
16.
Diabetes Ther ; 13(3): 505-516, 2022 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35187627

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Total population mortality rates have been falling and life expectancy increasing for more than 30 years. Diabetes remains a significant risk factor for premature death. Here we used the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (RCGP RSC) practices to determine diabetes-related vs non-diabetes-related mortality rates. METHODS: RCGP RSC data were provided on annual patient numbers and deaths, at practice level, for those with and without diabetes across four age groups (< 50, 50-64, 65-79, ≥ 80 years) over 15 years. Investment in diabetes control, as measured by the cost of primary care medication, was also taken from GP prescribing data. RESULTS: We included 527 general practices. Over the period 2004-2019, there was no significant change in life years lost, which varied between 4.6 and 5.1 years over this period. The proportion of all diabetes deaths by age band was significantly higher in the 65-79 years age group for men and women with diabetes than for their non-diabetic counterparts. For the year 2019, 26.6% of deaths were of people with diabetes. Of this 26.6%, 18.5% would be expected from age group and non-diabetes status, while the other 8.1% would not have been expected-pro rata to nation, this approximates to approximately 40,000 excess deaths in people with diabetes vs the general population. CONCLUSION: There remains a wide variation in mortality rate of people with diabetes between general practices in UK. The mortality rate and life years lost for people with diabetes vs non-diabetes individuals have remained stable in recent years, while mortality rates for the general population have fallen. Investment in diabetes management at a local and national level is enabling us to hold the ground regarding the life-shortening consequences of having diabetes as increasing numbers of people develop T2DM at a younger age.

17.
BMJ Open ; 12(2): e050062, 2022 02 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35165107

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which emerged in December 2019, has caused millions of deaths and severe illness worldwide. Numerous vaccines are currently under development of which a few have now been authorised for population-level administration by several countries. As of 20 September 2021, over 48 million people have received their first vaccine dose and over 44 million people have received their second vaccine dose across the UK. We aim to assess the uptake rates, effectiveness, and safety of all currently approved COVID-19 vaccines in the UK. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will use prospective cohort study designs to assess vaccine uptake, effectiveness and safety against clinical outcomes and deaths. Test-negative case-control study design will be used to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Self-controlled case series and retrospective cohort study designs will be carried out to assess vaccine safety against mild-to-moderate and severe adverse events, respectively. Individual-level pseudonymised data from primary care, secondary care, laboratory test and death records will be linked and analysed in secure research environments in each UK nation. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models will be carried out to estimate vaccine uptake levels in relation to various population characteristics. VE estimates against laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection will be generated using a generalised additive logistic model. Time-dependent Cox models will be used to estimate the VE against clinical outcomes and deaths. The safety of the vaccines will be assessed using logistic regression models with an offset for the length of the risk period. Where possible, data will be meta-analysed across the UK nations. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: We obtained approvals from the National Research Ethics Service Committee, Southeast Scotland 02 (12/SS/0201), the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage independent Information Governance Review Panel project number 0911. Concerning English data, University of Oxford is compliant with the General Data Protection Regulation and the National Health Service (NHS) Digital Data Security and Protection Policy. This is an approved study (Integrated Research Application ID 301740, Health Research Authority (HRA) Research Ethics Committee 21/HRA/2786). The Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub meets NHS Digital's Data Security and Protection Toolkit requirements. In Northern Ireland, the project was approved by the Honest Broker Governance Board, project number 0064. Findings will be made available to national policy-makers, presented at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines , COVID-19 , Case-Control Studies , Humans , Observational Studies as Topic , Prospective Studies , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Scotland/epidemiology , State Medicine
18.
Br J Dermatol ; 2022 Feb 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35157313

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Alopecia areata (AA) is a common cause of nonscarring hair loss that can have a profound psychological impact. OBJECTIVES: To assess the co-occurrence of depression and anxiety in adults with AA compared with the general population, and to evaluate the mental health treatment burden and impact on time off work and unemployment. METHODS: In total, 5435 people with newly diagnosed AA in UK primary care were identified from the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre network database, and matched to 21 740 controls. In cases and controls, we compared the prevalence and incidence of depressive episodes, recurrent depressive disorder and anxiety disorder, rates of time off work and unemployment, and, in those with pre-existing mental health conditions, rates of mental health-related prescribing and referral rates. This observational was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04239521). RESULTS: Depression and anxiety were more prevalent in people diagnosed with AA than in controls (P < 0·001). People with AA were also more likely to subsequently develop new-onset depression and anxiety: adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for recurrent depressive disorder 1·38 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·13-1·69], depressive episodes aHR 1·30 (95% CI 1·04-1·62) and anxiety disorder aHR 1·33 (95% CI 1·09-1·63); to be issued time off work certificates (aHR 1·56, 95% CI 1·43-1·71); and to be recorded as unemployed (aHR 1·82, 95% CI 1·33-2·49). Higher rates of antidepressant prescribing were also seen in people with AA. CONCLUSIONS: People with AA have higher rates of depression and anxiety than those without AA. This impacts deleteriously on mental health treatment burden, time off work and unemployment. Evidence-based mental health treatment programmes are needed for people with AA. What is already known about this topic? Alopecia areata is a common cause of nonscarring hair loss. Psychological comorbidity is common in people with alopecia areata, but limited information is available on the co-occurrence and impact of depression and anxiety in this group. What does this study add? Adults newly diagnosed with alopecia areata (5435 in UK primary care) have a higher background prevalence of depression and anxiety than population controls, and are also at 30-38% higher risk of being subsequently diagnosed with new-onset depression and anxiety. After alopecia areata diagnosis, people with the condition are more likely to be issued time off work certificates (56% higher) and to be recorded as unemployed (82% higher risk) than population controls.

19.
BMC Pregnancy Childbirth ; 22(1): 73, 2022 Jan 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35086478

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Valproate is a teratogenic drug that should be avoided during the preconception period and pregnancy. The aim was to explore general practitioners' (GPs) prescription patterns over time, describe trends, and explore inter-practice variation within primary care. METHODS: We identified women of childbearing age (12-46 years old) in the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) sentinel network. We performed repeated cross-sectional analyses from 2004 to 2018 to determine rates of prescription and a retrospective cohort estimated the prevalence of use of valproate during pregnancy. RESULTS: In 2004, 0.31% (95% Confidence Interval (95%CI):0.18 to 0.44%) women were prescribed valproate, decreasing to 0.16% (95%CI:0.07 to 0.24%) by 2018. Among women with epilepsy, the rate fell from 15.2% (95%CI:14.4 to 16.0%) to 8.8% (95% CI:8.2 to 9.7%) over the same period. In 2018, almost two thirds (62.2%) of women who were prescribed valproate had epilepsy only, whereas bipolar disorder and migraine accounted for 15.8% and 7.4% respectively. Contraceptive prescriptions did not increase over time, and only in 2018 was there greater odds of being prescribed contraception (OR 1.41, 95%CI:1.08 to 1.45). Just under a fifth (19.7%) of women were prescribed valproate during their pregnancy; two out of three of these pregnancies were preceded by folic acid prescription (5 mg). While some practices reduced their rate of valproate prescription, others did not. CONCLUSIONS: Regulatory guidelines have changed GPs' prescription patterns in women of childbearing potential for valproate but not for contraception. Further research is needed to identify the barriers of GPs and women of childbearing potential to undertaking contraception.


Subject(s)
Anticonvulsants/therapeutic use , Antimanic Agents/therapeutic use , Drug Prescriptions , Practice Patterns, Physicians'/trends , Valproic Acid/therapeutic use , Adolescent , Adult , Bipolar Disorder/drug therapy , Cohort Studies , Contraception , Cross-Sectional Studies , Epilepsy/drug therapy , Female , General Practitioners/trends , Humans , Middle Aged , Migraine Disorders/drug therapy , Pregnancy , Pregnancy Complications/drug therapy , Primary Health Care , Retrospective Studies , United Kingdom , Young Adult
20.
Vaccine ; 40(8): 1180-1189, 2022 02 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35042645

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: While population estimates suggest high vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection, the protection for health care workers, who are at higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 exposure, is less understood. METHODS: We conducted a national cohort study of health care workers in Wales (UK) from 7 December 2020 to 30 September 2021. We examined uptake of any COVID-19 vaccine, and the effectiveness of BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) against polymerase chain reaction (PCR) confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. We used linked and routinely collected national-scale data within the SAIL Databank. Data were available on 82,959 health care workers in Wales, with exposure extending to 26 weeks after second doses. RESULTS: Overall vaccine uptake was high (90%), with most health care workers receiving theBNT162b2 vaccine (79%). Vaccine uptake differed by age, staff role, socioeconomic status; those aged 50-59 and 60+ years old were 1.6 times more likely to get vaccinated than those aged 16-29. Medical and dental staff, and Allied Health Practitioners were 1.5 and 1.1 times more likely to get vaccinated, compared to nursing and midwifery staff. The effectiveness of the BNT162b2 vaccine was found to be strong and consistent across the characteristics considered; 52% three to six weeks after first dose, 86% from two weeks after second dose, though this declined to 53% from 22 weeks after the second dose. CONCLUSIONS: With some variation in rate of uptake, those who were vaccinated had a reduced risk of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, compared to those unvaccinated. Second dose has provided stronger protection for longer than first dose but our study is consistent with waning from seven weeks onwards.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines , COVID-19 , Adolescent , Adult , Cohort Studies , Health Personnel , Humans , Prospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Wales/epidemiology , Young Adult
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