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1.
Nonlinear Dyn ; 101(3): 2003-2012, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1906358

ABSTRACT

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has threatened the social and economic structure all around the world. Generally, COVID-19 has three possible transmission routes, including pre-symptomatic, symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission, among which the last one has brought a severe challenge for the containment of the disease. One core scientific question is to understand the influence of asymptomatic individuals and of the strength of control measures on the evolution of the disease, particularly on a second outbreak of the disease. To explore these issues, we proposed a novel compartmental model that takes the infection of asymptomatic individuals into account. We get the relationship between asymptomatic individuals and critical strength of control measures theoretically. Furthermore, we verify the reliability of our model and the accuracy of the theoretical analysis by using the real confirmed cases of COVID-19 contamination. Our results, showing the importance of the asymptomatic population on the control measures, would provide useful theoretical reference to the policymakers and fuel future studies of COVID-19.

2.
Clin Chem Lab Med ; 59(9): 1507-1515, 2021 08 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1206212

ABSTRACT

With an almost unremittent progression of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections all around the world, there is a compelling need to introduce rapid, reliable, and high-throughput testing to allow appropriate clinical management and/or timely isolation of infected individuals. Although nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) remains the gold standard for detecting and theoretically quantifying SARS-CoV-2 mRNA in various specimen types, antigen assays may be considered a suitable alternative, under specific circumstances. Rapid antigen tests are meant to detect viral antigen proteins in biological specimens (e.g. nasal, nasopharyngeal, saliva), to indicate current SARS-CoV-2 infection. The available assay methodology includes rapid chromatographic immunoassays, used at the point-of-care, which carries some advantages and drawbacks compared to more conventional, instrumentation-based, laboratory immunoassays. Therefore, this document by the International Federation for Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine (IFCC) Taskforce on COVID-19 aims to summarize available data on the performance of currently available SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid detection tests (Ag-RDTs), providing interim guidance on clinical indications and target populations, assay selection, and evaluation, test interpretation and limitations, as well as on pre-analytical considerations. This document is hence mainly aimed to assist laboratory and regulated health professionals in selecting, validating, and implementing regulatory approved Ag-RDTs.


Subject(s)
Antigens, Viral/immunology , COVID-19/diagnosis , Immunoassay/standards , Point-of-Care Testing/standards , Practice Guidelines as Topic/standards , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Asymptomatic Infections/classification , COVID-19/immunology , COVID-19/virology , Humans
3.
BMC Infect Dis ; 21(1): 350, 2021 Apr 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1186555

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 infection has emerged as a rapidly spreading infection. Today it is relatively easy to isolate Covid-19 symptomatic cases, while remains problematic to control the disease spread by infected but symptom-free individuals. The control of this possible path of contagion requires drastic measures of social distancing, which imply the suspension of most activities and generate economic and social issues. This study is aimed at estimating the percentage of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in a geographic area with relatively low incidence of Covid-19. METHODS: Blood serum samples from 388 healthy volunteers were analyzed for the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG by using an ELISA assay based on recombinant viral nucleocapsid protein. RESULTS: We found that 7 out of 388 healthy volunteers, who declared no symptoms of Covid-19, like fever, cough, fatigue etc., in the preceding 5 months, have bona fide serum anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG, that is 1.8% of the asymptomatic population (95% confidence interval: 0.69-2.91%). CONCLUSIONS: The estimated range of asymptomatic individuals with anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG should be between 26,565 and 112, 350. In the same geographic area, there are 4665 symptomatic diagnosed cases.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Viral/blood , Asymptomatic Infections , COVID-19/epidemiology , Adult , Aged , Humans , Immunoglobulin G/blood , Incidence , Italy/epidemiology , Middle Aged , Young Adult
4.
Appl Math Comput ; 405: 126273, 2021 Sep 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1174069

ABSTRACT

Due to the current COVID-19 pandemic, much effort has been put on studying the spread of infectious diseases to propose more adequate health politics. The most effective surveillance system consists of doing massive tests. Nonetheless, many countries cannot afford this class of health campaigns due to limited resources. Thus, a transmission model is a viable alternative to study the dynamics of the pandemic. The most used are the Susceptible, Infected and Removed type models (SIR). In this study, we tackle the population estimation problem of the A-SIR model, which takes into account asymptomatic or undetected individuals. By means of an algebraic differential approach, we design a model-free (no copy system) reduced-order estimation algorithm (observer) to determine the different non-measured population groups. We study two types of estimation algorithms: Proportional and Proportional-Integral. Both shown fast convergence speed, as well as a minimal estimation error. Additionally, we introduce random fluctuations in our analysis to represent changes in the external conditions and which result in poor measurements. The numerical results reveal that both model-free estimators are robust despite the presence of these fluctuations. As a point of reference, we apply the classical Luenberger type observer to our estimation problem and compare the results. Finally, we consider real data of infected individuals in Mexico City, reported from February 2020 to March 2021, and estimate the non-measured populations. Our work's main goal is to proportionate a simple and therefore, an accessible methodology to estimate the behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic from the available data, such that the competent authorities can propose more adequate health politics.

5.
J Gen Fam Med ; 22(1): 5-14, 2021 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-897812

ABSTRACT

A new mathematical model called SIIR model is constructed to describe the spread of infection by taking account of the characteristics of COVID-19 and is verified by the data from Japan. The following features of COVID-19: (a) there exist presymptomatic individuals who have infectivity even during the incubation period, (b) there exist asymptomatic individuals who can freely move around and play crucial roles in the spread of infection, and (c) the duration of immunity may be finite, are incorporated into the SIIR model. The SIIR model has the advantage of being able to explicitly handle asymptomatic individuals who are delayed in discovery or are extremely difficult to be discovered in the real world. It is shown that the conditions for herd immunity in the SIIR model become more severe than those in the SIR model; that is, the presence of asymptomatic individuals increases herd immunity threshold (HIT).

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