Beyond p < .05: a critical review of new Bayesian proposals for assessing the p-value.

This paper reviews recent contributions from a Bayesian-oriented perspective, after the ASA statement on p-values (2016). We classify proposals that (i) supplement the p-value; (ii) modify the p-value itself. In the first group, we review the Bayes factor, the False Positive risk, the rejection odds and the analysis of credibility from both Matthews' and Held's point of view. We also put forth and discuss a new index of credibility, about which we conduct a delimited simulation study. In the second group, we discuss Gannon's modification of the p-value based on the Bayes factor and the second-generation p-value. The theory is illustrated with two case studies on pharmacotherapy in infectious diseases. Contemporary authors still refer to the p-value as a statistical indicator but have abandoned the perspective of evaluating p-values with fixed thresholds. Statistical societies worldwide should target new strategies to disseminate the debate on p-values in all applied fields of knowledge, as well as they may promote the use of different statistical procedures to supplement p-values.

Reverse-Bayes methods for evidence assessment and research synthesis

It is now widely accepted that the standard inferential toolkit used by the scientific research community-null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST)-is not fit for purpose. Yet despite the threat posed to the scientific enterprise, there is no agreement concerning alternative approaches for evidence assessment. This lack of consensus reflects long-standing issues concerning Bayesian methods, the principal alternative to NHST. We report on recent work that builds on an approach to inference put forward over 70 years ago to address the well-known "Problem of Priors" in Bayesian analysis, by reversing the conventional prior-likelihood-posterior ("forward") use of Bayes' theorem. Such Reverse-Bayes analysis allows priors to be deduced from the likelihood by requiring that the posterior achieve a specified level of credibility. We summarise the technical underpinning of this approach, and show how it opens up new approaches to common inferential challenges, such as assessing the credibility of scientific findings, setting them in appropriate context, estimating the probability of successful replications, and extracting more insight from NHST while reducing the risk of misinterpretation. We argue that Reverse-Bayes methods have a key role to play in making Bayesian methods more accessible and attractive for evidence assessment and research synthesis. As a running example we consider a recently published meta-analysis from several randomised controlled trials (RCTs) investigating the association between corticosteroids and mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)

Changing the Characteristics of Regulatory Controls and Value Orientations of Students in the Context of a Pandemic

The aim of this study is to study possible changes caused by the pandemic factor in the psychological system of ensuring the psychological health of young people, related to regulatory controls and value orientations. The sample consisted of 164 university students, 17 to 25 years of age (the mean age is 19.4 years;and 39.0% are males), divided into two equal investigation groups of 82 people from 2019 and 2020. Research methods: "Personal Readiness for Activity (PRA)" scale (I. V. Atamanova, S. A. Bogomaz) and "Portrait Value Questionnaire-Revised (PVQ-R)" (Sh. Schwartz). Data analysis methods: rank-biserial correlation, regression analysis, Mann-Whitney U-test, Student's t-test, network analysis. Results: The data of correlation and regression analysis revealed relationships between the studied psychological variables and the "pandemic factor", which are significantly more pronounced than the common socio-demographic relationships from before the pandemic from a variety of respondents (gender, age, specialty). To a greater extent, this applies to the variables of Planning, Reflection, and Conservation. The use of statistical criteria for differences revealed a significant decrease in the indicators of Planning, Reflection, and the PRA Index in 2020 compared to 2019. We found a significant increase in the level of higher-order value of Conservation in 2020. The role of this indicator in the network structure of the psychological system for ensuring psychological health of young people is also on the rise, while the role of the value of Openness is on the decline. These phenomena reflect the dynamic consistency of youth value orientations with global critical factors related to the pandemic. There is a restructuring of the structural features of the value and regulatory controls for ensuring the psychological health of young people in the context of a pandemic. In the network graphs of 2019, a single center is represented - Goal setting, which acts as a system-forming factor. In 2020, it was replaced by a cooperative, polycentric subsystem that combines three characteristics that are similar in their degree of influence on human life - Planning, Reflection, and Conservation.

Reverse-Bayes methods for evidence assessment and research synthesis.

It is now widely accepted that the standard inferential toolkit used by the scientific research community-null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST)-is not fit for purpose. Yet despite the threat posed to the scientific enterprise, there is no agreement concerning alternative approaches for evidence assessment. This lack of consensus reflects long-standing issues concerning Bayesian methods, the principal alternative to NHST. We report on recent work that builds on an approach to inference put forward over 70 years ago to address the well-known "Problem of Priors" in Bayesian analysis, by reversing the conventional prior-likelihood-posterior ("forward") use of Bayes' theorem. Such Reverse-Bayes analysis allows priors to be deduced from the likelihood by requiring that the posterior achieve a specified level of credibility. We summarise the technical underpinning of this approach, and show how it opens up new approaches to common inferential challenges, such as assessing the credibility of scientific findings, setting them in appropriate context, estimating the probability of successful replications, and extracting more insight from NHST while reducing the risk of misinterpretation. We argue that Reverse-Bayes methods have a key role to play in making Bayesian methods more accessible and attractive for evidence assessment and research synthesis. As a running example we consider a recently published meta-analysis from several randomised controlled trials (RCTs) investigating the association between corticosteroids and mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19.