The impact of COVID‐19 on unemployment rate: An intelligent based unemployment rate prediction in selected countries of Europe

Unemployment remains a major cause for both developed and developing nations, due to which they lose their financial and economic impact as a whole. Unemployment rate prediction achieved researcher attention from a fast few years. The intention of doing our research is to examine the impact of the coronavirus on the unemployment rate. Accurately predicting the unemployment rate is a stimulating job for policymakers, which plays an imperative role in a country's financial and financial development planning. Classical time series models such as ARIMA models and advanced non‐linear time series methods be previously hired for unemployment rate prediction. It is known to us that mostly these data sets are non‐linear as well as non‐stationary. Consequently, a random error can be produced by a distinct time series prediction model. Our research considers hybrid prediction approaches supported by linear and non‐linear models to preserve forecast the unemployment rates much precisely. These hybrid approaches of the unemployment rate can advance their estimates by reproducing the unemployment ratio irregularity. These models' appliance is exposed to six unemployment rate statistics sets from Europe's selected countries, specifically France, Spain, Belgium, Turkey, Italy and Germany. Among these hybrid models, the hybrid ARIMA‐ARNN forecasting model performed well for France, Belgium, Turkey and Germany, whereas hybrid ARIMA‐SVM performed outclass for Spain and Italy. Furthermore, these models are used for the best future prediction. Results show that the unemployment rate will be higher in the coming years, which is the consequence of the coronavirus, and it will take at least 5 years to overcome the impact of COVID‐19 in these countries.

Doing well by doing good: why is investing in university social responsibility a good business for higher education institutions cross culturally?

PurposeThis paper aims to corroborate the importance of university social responsibility (USR) for universities and to establish a rationale for their investment in a strategically implement socially responsible initiatives and programmes and gain returns from such investments. This purpose can be achieved by examining a complex conceptual model connecting USR with many desired student-related outcomes that leverage the university's competitiveness, long sustainability and contribution to the triple bottom line – "people, planet, and profit”.Design/methodology/approachThe authors conducted a cross-country comparative study using quantitative techniques. Their analysis was guided by a holistic conceptual model constructed and experimentally evaluated using obtained primary data. The robustness of the suggested model was evaluated using structural equation modelling with partial least squares.FindingsThe findings validate the hypothesized associations and indicate that adopting USR initiatives increases student satisfaction and alumni loyalty through student-university identification, perceived university image, and service quality. In addition, the cross-country analysis finds no variation in the strength of the connections owing to cultural variations, except for the association between service quality and institution image.Practical implicationsIncorporating USR at the centre of university's strategy not only complements its teaching and research goals but also answers the requirements and expectations of stakeholders, increases competitiveness and assures sustainable performance.Originality/valueThis cross-cultural USR study uses a mix of methods to show that, even though USR is important, until now, its importance has been overlooked.

A novel separate chance-constrained programming model to design a sustainable medical ventilator supply chain network during the Covid-19 pandemic

Providing new models or designing sustainable networks in recent studies represents a growing trend. However, there is still a gap in the simultaneous modeling of the three dimensions of sustainability in the electronic medical device supply chain (SC). In this paper, a novel hybrid chance-constrained programming and cost function model is presented for a green and sustainable closed-loop medical ventilator SC network design. To bring the problem closer to reality, a wide range of parameters including all cost parameters, demands, the upper bound of the released co2, and the minimum percentage of the units of product to be disposed and collected from a customer and to be dismantled and shipped from DCs are modeled as uncertain along with the normal probability distribution. The problem was first formulated into the framework of a bi-objective stochastic mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model;then, it was reformulated into a tri-objective deterministic mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) one. In order to model the environmental sustainability dimension, in addition to handling the total greenhouse gas emissions, the total waste products were also controlled. The efficiency and applicability of the proposed model were tested in an Iranian medical ventilator production and distribution network. For sensitivity analyses, the effect of some critical parameters on the values of the objective functions was carefully examined. Finally, valuable managerial insights into the challenges of companies during the COVID-19 pandemic were presented. Numerical results showed that with the increase in the number of customers in the COVID-19 crisis, social responsibility could improve cost mean by up to 8%.

Supply chain stresses

Purpose>This paper aims to review the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoint practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies.Design/methodology/approach>This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context.Findings>Supply chain agility is a complex and demanding challenge facing most firms operating postpandemic. Yet the response to these challenges is fairly ubiquitous by firms, meaning there are some generic steps all firms can make to improve.Originality/value>The briefing saves busy executives, strategists and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.

Promad problems in paradise

Purpose>This paper aims to review the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoint practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies.Design/methodology/approach>This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context.Findings>Small and medium tourism enterprises are not prepared for the continued market turmoil which will remain the norm following the COVID-19 pandemic. Digital transformation is a key driver to success and resilience, but few have adopted enough to survive.Originality/value>The briefing saves busy executives, strategists and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.

It is what you know

Purpose>This paper aims to review the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoint practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies.Design/methodology/approach>This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context.Findings>Knowledge management can be improved for organizations in the post-pandemic global economy when digitization processes and practices are adopted.Originality/value>The briefing saves busy executives, strategists and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.

Group think or shared endeavors?

Purpose>This paper aims to review the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoint practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies.Design/methodology/approach>This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context.Findings>Active listening to customers can help drive eco-knowledge and the adoption of green and radical innovations.Originality/value>The briefing saves busy executives, strategists and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.

Droht der deutschen Wirtschaft eine Deindustrialisierung?

Nach der Coronapandemie wird die deutsche Wirtschaft durch den Angriffskrieg Russlands auf die Ukraine von einem weiteren exogenen Schock getroffen. Neben gestörten Lieferketten, fehlenden Rohstoffen und Fachkräften kommen nun Energieknappheit und Inflation hinzu und belasten die deutsche Wirtschaft stark. Die Unsicherheiten bei den Unternehmen nehmen weiter zu. Die Autor:innen des Zeitgesprächs diskutieren, ob die deutsche Industrie von einer Deindustrialisierung bedroht ist und welche Möglichkeiten es gibt, diese Krise möglichst gut zu überwinden.Alternate :After the corona pandemic, the German economy is now being hit by another exogenous shock due to Russia's war of aggression on Ukraine. In addition to disrupted supply chains, a lack of raw materials and skilled labour, energy shortages and inflation are now adding to the strain on the German economy. The uncertainties among companies continue to grow. The authors of the Zeitgespräch discuss whether German industry is threatened by deindustrialisation and what possibilities there are to overcome this crisis as well as possible.

De-Globalisation — A New World Order?

After decades of increasing globalisation in trade, capital and information fl ows, we are currently experiencing a shift due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's war in Ukraine and divisions over the confl ict.

Working from home and management controls

The Covid-19 pandemic and the corresponding shift toward working from home (WFH) amplifies control problems within organizations and poses severe challenges for management control as employees' tasks are difficult to observe under WFH conditions. We examine the association between WFH and action controls. Based on a survey among employees in a large international corporation, we find that under WFH conditions the organization more intensively uses standardization and planning participation. We also examine the association between WFH and employee outcomes. The findings suggest that WFH is associated with more time employees spend in meetings and a higher job focus. Overall, the study adds to the literature by exploring the association between WFH and the use of management controls in organizations.

Mega-Influencers as Online Opinion Leaders: Establishing Cosmetic Brand Engagement on Social Media

The prominent growth of social media users, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, allows social media to become a potential platform for product promotion. The presence of digital influencers as online opinion leaders has been proven to influence brand value perception, establish brand engagement, and encourage consumer purchase intention. As the country with the fourth-largest population globally, Indonesia is a lucrative market for cosmetic products. In addition to the rising number of the millennial generation who is interested in beauty products, the male segment which is no less concerned about appearance also expands the cosmetics market. A quantitative method was applied using an online questionnaire to 220 samples. The findings reveal that perceived influence has a positive effect on purchase intention with brand engagement in self-concept and brand expected value as the mediating variables. Likewise, brand engagement in self-concept has a positive effect on brand expected value. This study recommends XYZ Cosmetics to continue enrolling Tasya Farasya, considering that, as a mega-influencer with enormous Instagram followers in Indonesia, she can drive the perception and behavior of her followers.

Privacy concerns with COVID-19 tracking apps: a privacy calculus approach

Purpose>The COVID-19 pandemic represents a unique challenge for public health worldwide. In this context, smartphone-based tracking apps play an important role in controlling transmission. However, privacy concerns may compromise the population's willingness to adopt this mobile health (mHealth) technology. Based on the privacy calculus theory, this study aims to examine what factors drive or hinder adoption and disclosure, considering the moderating role of age and health status.Design/methodology/approach>A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a European country hit by the pandemic that has recently launched a COVID-19 contact-tracing app. Data from 504 potential users was analyzed through partial least squares structural equation modeling.Findings>Results indicate that perceived benefits and privacy concerns impact adoption and disclosure and confirm the existence of a privacy paradox. However, for young and healthy users, only benefits have a significant effect. Moreover, older people value more personal than societal benefits while for respondents with a chronical disease privacy concerns outweigh personal benefits.Originality/value>The study contributes to consumer privacy research and to the mHealth literature, where privacy issues have been rarely explored, particularly regarding COVID-19 contact-tracing apps. The study re-examines the privacy calculus by incorporating societal benefits and moving from a traditional "self-focus” approach to an "other-focus” perspective. This study further adds to prior research by examining the moderating role of age and health condition, two COVID-19 risk factors. This study thus offers critical insights for governments and health organizations aiming to use these tools to reduce COVID-19 transmission rates.

Integration of financial markets during COVID-19: a dynamic correlation analysis on Euronext

This article investigates the reaction of integrated financial markets to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a dynamic conditional correlation model on Euronext Stock Exchange, I find that the integration of financial markets can act as a buffer against negative shocks such as COVID-19. However, this benefit begins to fade as the number of deaths from COVID-19 increases. In this case, a negative relationship with the dynamic correlation is found in some pairs of member countries.

Global assessment of the COVID-19 impact on IFRS 9 loan loss provisions

PurposeThis article aims to analyze the impact of COVID-19 measures by governments and central banks on International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 9 loan loss provisions (LLPs). Changes in the total amount of LLPs, distribution of outstanding loan balance among IFRS 9 stages and credit risk parameters used for calculation are investigated for each world region where banks report under IFRS.Design/methodology/approachData for a global selection of 105 banks reporting under IFRS were collected from 2019 to 2020 annual reports, financial statements, and Pillar III reports. These data provide the basis to empirically analyze the impact of COVID-19 on LLPs.FindingsIn most world regions Stage 2 balances increase while Stage 3 balances remain comparatively stable. The credit risk parameters used for computing LLPs remained stable in 2020. However, in China, the impact of COVID-19 on banks was not detected. Mean Stage 1 balances for Chinese banks increased slightly during the pandemic. Aside from the COVID-19 impact, we find that LLPs, credit risk parameters, and loss absorption capacities are significantly lower for banks in Canada, Oceania and Western Europe compared to those in the rest of the world.Originality/valueThere exists previous research examining the COVID-19 impact on financial stability, implementation of emergency rules and country-wide analyses to anticipate default rates depending on recovery scenarios. However, this is the first global study on the immediate impact of COVID-19 on LLPs. It reveals the significant differences between world regions and provides implications about their resilience against future credit shocks.

Sectoral volatility spillovers and their determinants in Vietnam

Using the vector autoregression (VAR) connectedness approach, this paper investigates dynamic volatility spillovers across 14 sectors in Vietnam's stock market over the period 2012–2021. The study also explores the differences in sectoral spillovers before and after the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic. Additionally, the paper also investigates the effects of the current pandemic and macroeconomic fundamentals on intersectoral connectedness in Vietnam. Our findings show that volatility transmission across sectors fluctuates significantly over the research period and spikes during the Covid-19 pandemic. The total spillover index is approximately 64.23 per cent, indicating that volatility spillovers across the Vietnamese sectors are substantial. The risks from the stock market appear to spread quickly and easily across sectors in Vietnam. Among these 14 sectors, food, fisheries, and oil and gas act as net senders of risks while real estate and pharmacy are the greatest receivers of risk. The findings also confirm that the commerce, transportation, manufacturing, and service sectors are more sensitive to the Covid-19 pandemic crisis than other sectors in Vietnam. Furthermore, the empirical results show that an increase in daily Covid-19 infections increases volatility spillover across sectors. Policy implications have emerged based on these findings from this paper for the Vietnamese government and other emerging countries.

Analyzing diversity amongst visitors of Portuguese wine routes based on their wine involvement

Purpose>This paper focuses on the wine tourist market in the central region of Portugal, and it aims to analyze the wine tourist's demographic and travel behavior and preferences profile, based on their level of wine involvement.Design/methodology/approach>This paper presents results from an exploratory study with a quantitative design, including a total of 1,029 survey responses from visitors of three wine routes. A K-mean cluster analysis was carried out, and the emerging groups of wine tourists were statistically compared (ANOVA or Chi-squared test).Findings>Participants present a demographic profile of the wine route visitor similar to that found in other studies, with an average involvement with wine. There were three clusters of wine tourists, with different levels of involvement with wine: less wine-involved;medium wine-involved;and highly wine-involved. Significant differences between the three mentioned categories are visible for gender, age and attractions visited and expenses, suggesting the possibility of a differentiated market approach. Additionally, most respondents report high interest in a variety of attractions that are not exclusively wine-related. This finding supports the conceptualization of (particularly rural) wine tourism as "terroir tourism.”Research limitations/implications>The pandemic context in which data collection was undertaken led to a smaller sample than expected, which was also more domestic than would have been in "non-COVID” times.Practical implications>This study provides relevant insights about visitors of wine routes in Central Portugal, which may resonate in other wine tourism destinations. Implications for both theory and practice are also discussed.Originality/value>This paper fulfills an identified need to study the wine tourism market in the Central Region of Portugal and expands our understanding about wine tourists' profiles, behavior and interests, adding with empirical findings to the debate on heterogeneity in the wine tourist market, the role of wine involvement and of terroir.

Catalysing regional integration in Africa: The role of infrastructure

Now, more than ever, infrastructure integration in Africa has become critical to recalibrating Africa's growth strategy toward increased intraregional trade, especially in an era of global isolationism, protectionism and supply chain disruptions from COVID and the war in Ukraine. This paper investigates the extent to which infrastructure development and integration can act as a catalyst for trade, innovation and income improvements in Africa. Using panel data analysis, we show that the infrastructure sector with the strongest multiplier effect on economic activity is the information and communication technology (ICT) sector, followed by the transport sector, the electricity sector and, last, the water sector. This ranking of the catalytic role of infrastructure sectors should guide policy prioritisation on infrastructure investments to accelerate growth and unlock the potential of the AfCFTA. Benchmarking exercises on infrastructures' catalytic role in the regional economic communities (RECs) show that infrastructure has had the strongest impact on economic outcomes in the East African Community bloc, making the EAC a type of flying‐geese RECs for other regions to emulate.

Testimonios de las atravesadas: A borderland existence of women of color faculty

The temporalities of COVID‐19 and resultant economic crisis, along with increased visibility of white supremacy and anti‐Blackness, have exacerbated the longstanding challenges Women of Color (WOC) faculty experience, particularly around negotiating labor and navigating the academy. Through Anzaldúa's borderlands framework, and an interwoven methodology of testimonios and pláticas, this paper's findings illuminate how the fixed, shifting, and messy boundaries of academic work have, especially for WOC faculty working through COVID‐19, violated the limits of the personal and professional, intruded into the homes as sacred spaces, and continued and expanded demands to provide labor. Institutions have placated these fraught borders with professional development and networks of mentorship—all while pivoting away from addressing the material and structural conditions that disintegrate the borders, particularly for WOC faculty. By exploring the layered complexities of traversing the academy–a space not made for our existence as WOC within them–we offer a nuanced understanding of academic borderlands. As a part of this, we highlight our resistance to carve out spaces of solidarity and collectivity in the face of Eurocentric, individualistic institutions to imagine new possibilities, a practice necessary toward transforming the academy.

Can COVID-19 solve the equity premium puzzle?

We propose a new approach for estimating rare disaster event models where we only use U.S. national consumption data as an alternative to the ubiquitous Barro and Ursúa's (2008, 2012) multi-country data set. We find that the 2020 COVID crisis unambiguously reveals the presence and significance of rare disasters in consumption dynamics. Using our estimated parameters and recursive preferences, our approach is able to solve the risk-free rate and equity premium puzzles without resorting to multi-country data in estimating the model. Our analysis shows that the severity of disasters is vastly underestimated in the U.S. and that more than 400 years of consumption data would be necessary to get an accurate estimate.

Usage of smartphone for financial transactions: from the consumer privacy perspective

Purpose>This study aims to empirically examine how consumer privacy concerns (CPC) impact smartphone usage for financial transactions. The study also investigates the moderating impact of regulations on this action.Design/methodology/approach>With the inputs from literature and related privacy theories, a theoretical model was developed. The model was later empirically validated using the partial least squares structural equation modeling technique with 367 respondents from India.Findings>The study finds that CPC significantly impacts on consumer behavior in using smartphones for financial transactions. The study also highlights that regulation has a moderating impact on consumer usage of smartphones for financial transactions.Research limitations/implications>This study provides valuable inputs to smartphone service providers, practitioners, regulatory authorities and policymakers on appropriate and secure usage of smartphones by consumers, ensuring privacy protection while making financial transactions.Originality/value>This study provides a unique model showing the antecedents of CPC to impact the behavioral reaction of smartphone users mediated through the ingredients of privacy calculus theory. Besides, this study analyzes the moderating effects of regulation on the use of smartphones for financial transactions. This is also a novel approach of this study.