ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic simultaneously affected most economic sectors and has already caused severe worldwide social and economic damage. In response, authorities introduced social distancing measures, with an adverse impact on economic activity. If policymakers were aware of the existing vulnerabilities, including those derived from the positioning on the business cycle, resilience could have been increased. The aim of this article is to describe various methods of dating business cycles in several Central and Eastern European (C.E.E.) countries, namely Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Romania. Furthermore, a Probit model regarding the probability of a recession is estimated, confirming the adverse effects of the pandemic, in contrast with a brightening outlook given vaccination campaigns and the E.U. recovery package. However, in case of the Romanian economy, an in-sample estimation showed a high probability of negative growth rates even in a pre-pandemic world, due to the high macroeconomic imbalances. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
ABSTRACT
This paper investigates the effects of macroeconomic policy announcements on financial markets in three Central European economies: Czechia, Hungary, and Poland (CE-3). We focus on the unprecedented stabilisation policies implemented from March to December 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, including unconventional monetary measures and large stimulus programs. Detailed categories of monetary and fiscal measures are introduced into vector autoregressions with exogenous regressors and dynamic conditional correlations, which we estimate using daily data. This allows us to control for policy spillovers from abroad, as well as global risk factors and pandemic-related variables. We find that, in general, macroeconomic policy measures implemented in the CE-3 countries played an important role in stabilising financial markets during the pandemic. We uncover several notable patterns in the reaction of markets to anti-crisis measures across the region. The impact of the monetary policy announcements on 10-year sovereign bond yields was more substantial than on stock market returns and exchange rate returns. The communication of the unconventional tools proved effective in lowering the bond yields. Interestingly, we document that the effects of non-standard measures for some variables, such as the exchange rate, can be qualitatively different from those resulting from a conventional monetary expansion. Even though the domestic monetary events became more important than the fiscal ones, the latter proved relevant for financial market returns, especially when large-scale immediate fiscal measures and tax deferrals were introduced. We also show that the CE-3 economies were subject to the cross-border transmission of policy announcement effects from the Euro Area and the US, although the magnitude of these effects was smaller than expected and varied across the CE-3 countries.
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: In the last decade, substantial differences in the epidemiology of, antiretroviral therapy (ART) for, cascade of care in and support to people with HIV in vulnerable populations have been observed between countries in Western Europe, Central Europe (CE) and Eastern Europe (EE). The aim of this study was to use a survey to explore whether ART availability and therapies have evolved in CE and EE according to European guidelines. METHODS: The Euroguidelines in Central and Eastern Europe (ECEE) Network Group conducted two identical multicentre cross-sectional online surveys in 2019 and 2021 concerning the availability and use of antiretroviral drugs (boosted protease inhibitors [bPIs], integrase inhibitors [INSTIs] and nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors [NRTIs]), the introduction of a rapid ART start strategy and the use of two-drug regimens (2DRs) for starting or switching ART. We also investigated barriers to the implementation of these strategies in each region. RESULTS: In total, 18 centres participated in the study: four from CE, six from EE and eight from Southeastern Europe (SEE). Between those 2 years, older PIs were less frequently used and darunavir-based regimens were the main PIs (83%); bictegravir-based and tenofovir alafenamide-based regimens were introduced in CE and SEE but not in EE. The COVID-19 pandemic did not significantly interrupt delivery of ART in most centres. Two-thirds of centres adopted a rapid ART start strategy, mainly in pregnant women and to improve linkage of care in vulnerable populations. The main obstacle to rapid ART start was that national guidelines in several countries from all three regions did not support such as strategy or required laboratory tests first; an INSTI/NRTI combination was the most commonly prescribed regimen (75%) and was exclusively prescribed in SEE. 2DRs are increasingly used for starting or switching ART (58%), and an INSTI/NRTI was the preferred regimen (75%) in all regions and exclusively prescribed in SEE, whereas the use of bPIs declined. Metabolic disorders and adverse drug reactions were the main reasons for starting a 2DR; in the second survey, HIV RNA <500 000 c/ml and high cluster of differentiation (CD)-4 count emerged as additional important reasons. CONCLUSIONS: In just 2 years and in spite of the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, significant achievements concerning ART availability and strategies have occurred in CE, EE and SEE that facilitate the harmonization of those strategies with the European AIDS Clinical Society guidelines. Few exceptions exist, especially in EE. Continuous effort is needed to overcome various obstacles (administrative, financial, national guideline restrictions) in some countries.