Market reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from emerging markets

Purpose: This study examines the market reaction to the World Health Organization (WHO) announcement of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a global pandemic on the emerging equity markets and compares the reaction with developed markets. This study also compares the market reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic with the market reactions to the 2008 global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach: Using the Morgan Stanley Capital International daily stock indices data and the Carhart and the GARCH(1,1) models for an event study, the authors examine the cumulative abnormal returns during 30 and 10 trading days and the extended 60 days before and after the WHO pandemic announcement. It also compares the market reactions during the COVID-19 pandemic with the reactions to the Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy announcement during the 2008 global financial crisis. Findings: This study finds that the COVID-19 pandemic had a significantly greater negative impact to the stock markets in emerging countries than in the developed countries. The negative impact on the emerging markets is more pronounced for firms with small market capitalizations and for growth stocks. The negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is stronger in the energy and financial sectors in both emerging and developed markets. The positive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic occurred in healthcare and telecommunications for the emerging markets and information technology for the developed markets. This study also finds that the equity markets in both emerging and developed countries recovered faster from the COVID-19 pandemic relative to the 2008 global financial crisis. Social implications: Investors' desire to diversify their risks across different countries and sectors in the emerging markets could bring superior returns. The diversification strategies bring critical financial supports to forestall the contagion of COVID-19, to protect lives, and to save the emerging economies, especially for those financially constrained countries that are facing twin health and economic shocks by channeling their investments to countries with weak healthcare systems. Originality/value: This study extends the literature that examines market reactions to stock market shocks by examining the market reactions to the COVID-19 outbreak on the emerging and developed equity markets across different market capitalizations, valuation and sectors. This study also finds that the markets recovered quicker from the COVID-19 pandemic announcement than during the 2008 global financial crisis. © 2021, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Fi*rm Size and Financing Behavior during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from SMEs in Istanbul

This paper examines how small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) in Istanbul managed their financial needs during the COVID-19 pandemic. A unique survey was conducted in May–June 2021 to analyze the effect of the pandemic on financial conditions and access to finance. The paper maps the differences between firms in terms of their financing conditions and behavior based on their size during the pandemic. The novel data set helps to conceptualize the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on SMEs. The paper makes a contribution to the literature through using a large number of variables related to firms' financial conditions and opportunities (e.g., credit restructuring, debt postponing, capital injection). The paper hypothesizes that SMEs are less likely than large firms to access formal finance opportunities, but they tend to rely more on informal financing. The empirical findings suggest that, during the pandemic, micro and small firms tend to borrow more from their acquaintances, such as relatives and friends. Micro firms are less likely to restructure their outstanding loans, borrow from banks, or inject capital. Furthermore, micro firms tend to cut their costs more to avoid further difficulty in their financial positions. Micro and small firms tend to apply for bank loans less than large firms, while medium-size firms are more likely to apply. Micro and small firms are more inclined to report difficulty in accessing credit.

Time and Frequency Connectedness Among Emerging Markets and QGREEN, FinTech and Artificial Intelligence-Based Index: Lessons from the Outbreak of COVID-19

The study is about contributing to the ongoing discussion on the diversification opportunities for emerging markets with non-conventional asset class. The limited literature in the era of fourth industrial revolution motivates us to gauge diversification opportunities. This study is focusing on identifying diversification opportunities with a set of unique asset classes that are the proxies for Green Funds, FinTech and Artificial Intelligence-based index funds. The method and model applied in the study are time and frequency connectedness in a Wavelet Coherence, and for the robustness check—Network analysis has been applied. The originality of the study lies in identifying the impact of the outbreak of COVID-19. The results captured that FinTech-based asset was the most resilient asset class during the pre- and post-outbreak of COVID-19, followed by AI-based fund and finally by Green fund. Henceforth, FinTech provides superior diversification opportunities among all with MSCI Emerging Market. AI and Green funds are captured to be invested in the long term for diversification, whereas FinTech is suitable for both long- and short-term assets. The results are relevant for investors in emerging markets and for policymakers as well. © 2023 MDI.

The foreign investors' behaviours during the COVID-19 pandemic in emerging market

International capital inflows contribute a critical part to macroeconomic stability and financial market growth for an emerging economy. As the COVID-19 pandemic has triggered unprecedented chaos in the financial markets recently, this study attempts to explore the current foreign investors' behaviours and their impacts on the stock market performance in an emerging market. This study found long-term relationships between foreign investors' trading behaviours and stock market returns. However, the COVID-19 pandemic is distinctive from previous financial crises regarding its impacts on foreign investors' trading behaviours. Responding to shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic, foreign investors have changed their trading behaviours dramatically and somehow lost their role as a trend leader to domestic retail investors in the market.

Are sustainable firms more profitable during COVID-19? Recent global evidence of firms in developed and emerging economies

PurposeThis paper investigates whether sustainability performance (SP) protects financial performance (FP) for firms in both developed and emerging economies during the COVID-19-induced economic downturn.Design/methodology/approachUsing a recent sample of firms in 34 countries between 2003 and 2021, the authors employ ordinary least squares regressions, moderations and the Heckman two-step method to test the hypotheses.FindingsFirms with strong SP have higher FP in developed and emerging economies in the upcoming year. During the COVID-19 crisis in 2020–2021, the impact of sustainability on FP is pronounced in developed but not in emerging economies. Furthermore, cross-listings expose firms in emerging economies to high-standard institutional mechanisms in developed economies. Thus, sustainable firms in emerging economies cross-listed on European stock exchanges are more profitable.Practical implicationsFor regulators and standard setters, the global-level comparative analysis helps them find solutions that may assist firms in improving SP globally (e.g. mandatory reporting) and enduring crises resiliently. For institutional investors, the study reveals the relatively different impact of sustainability risk for firms in developed and emerging economies. For practitioners and private sector firms, this study contributes to the dialogue on what makes firms more resilient in COVID-19. Although COVID-19 might be temporary, the lessons learned could protect firms from future crises.Originality/valueThe authors contribute to the contingency perspective between sustainability and financial performance by providing recent empirical evidence in a global setting during the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors demonstrate how different external institutional mechanisms (rule-based governance and relation-based governance) and cross-listing affect the SP-FP relationship during a crisis. The authors extend the knowledge in crisis management literature with a comparative study and fill the research gap on how SP affects FP for firms in emerging economies compared to developed economies.

Impact of Entrepreneurship on Sustainable Development in Emerging Markets under the Conditions of COVID-19

This paper investigates the contribution of entrepreneurship to sustainable development and economic growth in emerging markets in the period before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the importance of various measures implemented by entrepreneurs and governments as responses to the changing environment in the COVID-19 pandemic is examined. By employing the data for 20 emerging markets, the findings revealed that only high-growth-expectation entrepreneurship (HEA) had a significant contribution to economic growth before the pandemic, but this relationship became negative during the COVID-19 crisis. Furthermore, this research pointed out that sufficient responses to the COVID-19 pandemic could be a useful instrument to encourage the development of entrepreneurship and revive the economy in the post-COVID period in emerging markets.

Emerging market debt and the COVID‐19 pandemic: A time–frequency analysis of spreads and total returns dynamics

We apply wavelet analyses to study the impact of COVID‐19 pandemic on the performance of emerging market bonds, in both investment grade and high yield ranges of creditworthiness. Our results show varying level of coherence ranging from low, medium and high between the Coronavirus Media Coverage index and the price moves of the emerging market USD‐denominated debt. We attribute the intervals of low coherence levels to the diversification potential during a systemic pandemic such as COVID‐19 of investments in bonds issued by developing economies. We document differences in patterns exhibited by various indices describing behaviour of option‐adjusted spreads and total returns as a function of credit quality of issuers form emerging market economies. We report well‐defined zones of the regime switching between the lead and lag roles of the emerging market bonds vis‐à‐vis the media coverage.

Antecedents of obesity among Indian youth: from consumer psychological and lifestyle perspective

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to determine the antecedents of obesity among the younger generation of Indians (Generation Y) from a psychological and lifestyle consumer perspective. The study also investigates the moderating role of demography on the body mass index (BMI) of Indian youths.Design/methodology/approachThe study initially develops a conceptual model, stemming from an extensive theoretical research, and subsequently validates this using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique with a sample size of 1,242 Indian youths.FindingsThe study concludes that consumers' food habits (FH) and physical activity (PA) positively impact consumers' physical health (PH), which influences their BMI levels (BLs). Anxiety (AX), depression (DE), stress (ST), peer pressure (PP) and work pressure (WP) impact individuals' mental health (MH), which also influences their BLs. Finally, there is a significant moderating impact of demographic factors, such as age (AG), gender (GE) and income levels (ILs) on the relationship between individuals' physical and MH and individuals' BLs.Research limitations/implicationsThis study proposes a new model which highlights the issue of youth consumer obesity from the psychological and lifestyle perspectives. The model is effective as it has a high explanative power of 73%. The study investigates consumer obesity from emerging market like India perspective, but the study does not examine consumer food consumption behavior and obesity from developed market perspective.Practical implicationsYouth obesity could be considered a global pandemic, and obesity rates among the Indian youth are also increasing. This study provides valuable inputs and understanding of consumer markets to policy makers, consumer protection institutions, organizations related to the food and beverage industry, healthcare workers and consumers themselves regarding the antecedents of youth obesity (BL) in developing and emerging markets.Originality/valueThe study adds value to the body of literature related to consumer obesity, FH, consumer psychology and lifestyle through findings that are new in terms of findings' specificity, contextual focus and explication. Moreover, the study extends the cognitive theory of DE and the theory of planned behavior (TPB). The research effectively offers significant theoretical and practicable market knowledge to both scholars and marketing practitioners, as well as policy makers and institutions dealing with youth obesity, particularly in emerging markets.