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1.
Russian Journal of Economics ; 8(3):207-233, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2156181

ABSTRACT

In 2020 the energy transition path was distorted by the COVID-19 pandemic which caused a sharp economic decline and a fast global recovery in 2021. Unlike that period, the years between 2001 and 2019 illustrated a different type of energy evolution for developed and developing countries regarding primary energy consumption. During this period the composition of energy balances of these two major groups demonstrated dramatic disparity, notably marked by the high share of coal in developing countries. The shock of 2020 led to a belief in expediting the transition to green energy, but in 2021 the economic recovery revived demand for oil and coal, dashing hopes for the growing renewable energy sources sector in the European Union that year. The return of coal, however, to the EU energy sector and stable demand for motor fuel globally led to the restoration of the GHG emission growth against the backdrop of the climate policy implementation failure. The current energy transition is denoted by features such as the flat oil demand in developed countries, the flat global demand for motor gasoline and the growing demand for diesel. The econometrics of demand for two motor oil products are quite opposite. For gasoline we have almost all hypotheses met: the negative influence of climate policy and oil prices, strong effect of dummies for shock of 2020 and 2021, and naturally 0.3 coefficient at GDP growth rate. Nevertheless, for diesel everything is exactly the opposite — only 0,4 coefficient at GDP and practically nothing else. This effect shows the strong role and trend for cargo use of diesel fueled trucks in the global economy. The high income of oil and gas majors in 2021 did not secure the investment upturn. A mature oil industry receives substantial profits for its investors, supplying dividends, and buying back debts without enlarging production capacities. At this point climate policy expectations of phasing out fossil fuels in the foreseeable future operated as a braking mechanism against reinvesting oil incomes. Moreover, at this junction we can observe governments’ limited capacity to pursue policies toward multiple objectives simultaneously: modest energy prices, energy transition and securing the sufficient capital formation for energy. The continued fusion of the economic upturn and energy transition will be dependent on demand and supply matching in the oil markets. It is also possible that the sanctions policies of 2022 may aggravate the situation, triggering high prices and uncertainties. © 2022 Non-profit partnership “Voprosy Ekonomiki”.

2.
Frontiers in Energy Research ; 10, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2154713

ABSTRACT

With the purpose of risk management for fossil energy investors, this paper examines the dynamic spillover effect and asymmetric connectedness between fossil energy, green financial and major traditional financial markets in China. By employing the spillover index model of Diebold and Yilmaz, a weak correlation between green financial and fossil energy markets is verified, and the market connectedness remains relatively calm despite the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Specifically, green bonds receives fewer shocks from crude oil than coal, green stocks receive fewer shocks from coal than crude oil. In addition, rather than the safe-haven characteristics presented by gold, this paper further proves that green bonds also have the potential to act as safe-haven assets, due to the fact that the connectedness between green bonds and energy markets is at low levels. Finally, the magnitude of return spillovers between markets would vary significantly during different periods. The results obtained in this paper have practical implications for both investors and policymakers. Copyright © 2022 Deng, Guan, Zheng, Xing and Liu.

3.
2nd International Conference on Energy Transition in the Mediterranean Area, SyNERGY MED 2022 ; 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2152541

ABSTRACT

High volatility in deregulated electricity markets is that characteristic that exposes its participants to higher risks. Volatility is due to many, and most of the times unpredictable, factors, ranging from fuel prices, production from renewable energy sources, electricity demand to Covid-19 and energy crisis. This article describes the initial stages of the work that combines signalling with market conditions in order to analyse the factors affecting the clearing prices of the day ahead market in view of enhancing the forecasting of these prices. The proposed forecasting methodology is based on the extreme learning machine (ELM) and it is tested on the German and Finnish markets. © 2022 IEEE.

4.
Canadian Foreign Policy Journal ; : 1-6, 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2107026

ABSTRACT

For most of the last 75 years, Canada has been a supplier of fossil fuels to the world. More recently, growing concerns about the impacts of climate change have created challenges to a continuation of this role. Developments such as the COVID pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have made even more evident the tensions confronting energy systems around the world. The situation in Canada is no exception. Within this context, the contributors to this Special Issue explore a range of issues linked to energy, security, and the climate as well as factors that connect these three factors. The future role - if any - of fossil fuels in meeting Canadian and world energy needs is addressed as are the possible implications of a growing reliance on renewable forms of energy. The authors present a range of assessments and perspectives, anchored in an appreciation of the situation in Canada, our country's evolving role in global energy relations, and its participation in international efforts to address climate change.

5.
International Joint Conference on Energy, Electrical and Power Engineering, CoEEPE 2021 ; 899:511-531, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2048168

ABSTRACT

Our goal is to examine the efficiency of different intraday electricity markets and if any of their price prediction models is more accurate than others. The focus is on the German intraday market for electricity. We want to find out whether the COVID-19 crisis has an influence on the price development. This paper includes a comprehensive review between Germany, France and Norway (NOR1) day-ahead and intraday electricity market prices. These markets represent different energy mixes which would allow us to analyse the impact of the energy mix on the efficiencies of these markets. To draw conclusions about extreme market conditions (i) we reviewed the market data linked to COVID-19. We expected a higher volatility in the lockdowns than before and therefore decrease in efficiency of the prediction models. With our analysis, (ii) we want to draw conclusions as to whether a mix based mainly on renewable energies such as that in Norway implies lower volatilities even in times of crisis. This would answer the question (iii) whether a market with an energy mix like Norway is more efficient in highly volatile phases. For the analysis we use data visualization and statistical models as well as sample and out-of-sample data. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

6.
Energy Economics ; : 106235, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1982973

ABSTRACT

The spillover effect is a significant factor impacting the volatility of commodity prices. Unlike earlier studies, this research uses the rolling window-based Quantile VAR (QVAR) model to describe the conditional volatility spillover between energy, biofuel and agricultural commodity markets. Since the magnitude of connectedness and spillover effects may switch between bearish and bullish market states over time, a QVAR model is a relatively realistic and appropriate approach to capture the connectedness as compared to the mean-based approaches of Diebold and Yilmaz (DY;2009, 2012, & 2014) which are mostly used in the literature. To this end, we employ volatility estimates by using the realized variance advanced by Parkinson (1980). Specifically, we investigate the time-varying volatility spillovers and connectedness among agricultural markets (wheat, corn, sugar, soyabean, coffee, and cotton), energy markets (gasoline, crude oil, natural gas) and biofuel (ethanol) markets from January 12, 2012 to May 10, 2021. By comparing our empirical analysis with results from the DY spillover model, we establish that connectedness is stronger in the left and right quantiles than those in the mean and median of the conditional distribution, emphasizing the importance of systematic risk spillovers during extreme market movements. Furthermore, results find that volatility spillovers and connectedness in the right tail is higher than in the left tail. In particular, we document significant volatility spillovers from agricultural markets to energy markets during extreme markets conditions and observe the dominance of agricultural markets over energy markets. To ascertain the impact of COVID-19 on the volatility of markets examined, we divide our sample into sub-samples and observe significant variation in the level of volatility spillovers and connectedness across the markets before and during the outbreak of COVID-19. Finally, some useful implications are summarized for investors' portfolios and risk avoidance.

7.
Climate Change Economics ; 13(3), 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1973876

ABSTRACT

Focusing on raising climate concerns and sustaining a clean ecosystem, the current study strives to examine the connectedness of clean energy markets with conventional energy markets and four regional stock markets of Asia, Pacific, Europe, and America for the period spanning January 1, 2004 to August 31, 2021. We employed the volatility connectedness methodology using dynamic conditional correlation (DCC-GARCH) estimates for analysis purposes. There is pronounced within class connectedness of all markets except conventional energy markets, which showed strong disconnection from the network. However, strong inter-class spillovers are reported between clean energy and regional stock markets. Time-varying analysis revealed that intense spillovers are shaped during the Global Financial Crisis, Shale Oil Crisis, and COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, time-varying net connectedness estimates illuminate that world renewable energy and American stock markets are net transmitters, whereas leftover markets are net recipients of spillovers. Further analysis of sub-sample periods during GFC, SOR, and COVID-19 validate that intense spillovers are formed when markets experience unexpected financial, economic, and global health turmoil. We proposed significant implications for regional stock markets of Asia, Pacific, Europe and America to concentrate on the climate-friendly energy markets than conventional energy markets as they service the clean ecosystem motives more specifically.

8.
34th International Conference on Efficency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems, ECOS 2021 ; : 462-472, 2021.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1958463

ABSTRACT

The recent coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak affected our society greatly, offering a chance to rebuild and rethink our way of living. Energy, as a driving factor of everyday life faced an unprecedented shock. How big was this shock for both the economic and political levels? No consolidated study exists where both aspects are considered. To rethink our way of living, we should reconsider the energy policies strategies for the upcoming years. To date, such an impact has not yet been quantified using price forecasting mathematical models. We have therefore developed a methodology, to quantify the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on European energy market. This paper is addressing the following question “Is the COVID-19 pandemic a Black Swan event?”Evidently COVID-19 had significant consequences on the European energy market. Stocks suffered historical minimum prices duringthis year, with a greater impact on coal technologies than renewable ones. Moreover, stock prices return is showing unexpected fluctuations, hence resulting in incorrectly predicted price forecasts. Despite the initial shock, the energy market is returning to pre-crisis levels, with the renewable technologies leading the comeback. Based on our findings and methods, we conclude that COVID-19 pandemic was not a Black Swan event. We foresee to extend our methodology beyond European energy market and the short-term effects of the pandemic with possible application on the impact of policy makers on energy models. © ECOS 2021 - 34th International Conference on Efficency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems.

9.
International Finance ; : 19, 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1927593

ABSTRACT

As China's carbon market continues to develop, its close connection with the financial and energy markets is becoming increasingly apparent. A systematic study of the spillover effects between markets is important, as it can help prevent excessive fluctuations in carbon prices. With this in mind, this study proposes a time-varying parameter vector autoregression with Lanne-Nyberg decomposition extended joint connectedness approach to analyze quantitatively the spillover effects in the "carbon-energy-financial" system. Empirical results show that a bidirectional spillover effect exists among markets. Not only does the carbon market have the most pronounced return (volatility) linkages with the natural gas (clean energy) market, but the information connected with the energy markets is also more closely linked than with the financial markets. We also find that market fluctuations, caused by the China-US trade conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic, have increased spillovers in the system.

10.
Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation ; : 647-651, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1919554

ABSTRACT

The article presents the economic and sociopolitical consequences of the pandemic COVID-19 in global energy markets. The relationship between the decline in social, economic activity, and energy consumption is analyzed. Traditional linkages between energy supply and demand have been eroded by the changing economic and social conditions of the world. Forecasts of the decline in global energy investment for 2020 are based on data on the severity and duration of the ongoing health crisis, the economic slowdown, and the large share of uncertainty surrounding these factors. A comprehensive method using entropy indicators is proposed as one of the forecasting tools. The basic forecast of many authoritative international economic organizations for 2020 is a large-scale global recession caused by restrictive measures of socioeconomic activity. With the gradual opening of economies currently in isolation, the recovery is U-shaped and is accompanied by a significant permanent loss of economic activity. The work explores investment and financial trends in all areas of energy supply, efficiency, and research and development (R&D). Current indicators and analytical materials and information on risks in the field of energy security and sustainability were provided. The impact of a large-scale global recession caused by months of restrictions on movement, social, and economic exclusion is quantified. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

11.
Econ Anal Policy ; 75: 548-562, 2022 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1894983

ABSTRACT

In the backdrop of the recent COVID-19 pandemic, the study examines the comparative asymmetric efficiency of dirty and clean energy markets pre and during the COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, we utilize an asymmetric multifractality detrended fluctuation analysis (A-MF-DFA). The study's findings uncover the presence of asymmetric multifractality in clean and dirty energy markets. In addition, multifractality in the energy markets is sensitive to trends, time horizon and major events. More importantly, the results suggest superior efficiency of clean-energy markets compared to conventional energies. We confirm the time-varying nature of market efficiency in the energy markets, and during the recent COVID-19 outbreak, market inefficiencies in the clean and dirty energy markets soared. In this way, the study holds meaningful insights for policymakers, energy policy practitioners, investors, and financial market participants to choose between clean (dirty) investments based on their asymmetric efficiency (inefficiency).

12.
Energies ; 15(10), 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1875525

ABSTRACT

Our goal is to examine the efficiency of different intraday electricity markets and if any of their price prediction models are more accurate than others. This paper includes a comprehensive review of Germany, France, and Norway’s (NOR1) day-ahead and intraday electricity market prices. These markets represent different energy mixes which would allow us to analyze the impact of the energy mix on the efficiencies of these markets. To draw conclusions about extreme market conditions, (i) we reviewed the market data linked to COVID-19. We expected higher volatility in the lockdowns than before and therefore decrease in the efficiency of the prediction models. With our analysis, (ii) we want to draw conclusions as to whether a mix based mainly on renewable energies such as that in Norway implies lower volatilities even in times of crisis. This would answer (iii) whether a market with an energy mix like Norway is more efficient in highly volatile phases. For the analysis, we use data visualization and statistical models as well as sample and out-of-sample data. Our finding was that while the different price and volatility levels occurred, the direction of the market was similar. We could find evidence that our expectations (i–iii) were met. © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

13.
Sustainability ; 14(10):5828, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1870599

ABSTRACT

Since the industrial revolution, the geopolitics of energy has been a driver of global prosperity and security, and determines the survival of life on our planet. This study examines the nonlinear structure and multifractal behavior of the cross-correlation between geopolitical risk and energy markets (West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent, natural gas and heating oil), using the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis. Furthermore, an in-depth analysis reveals different associations of the indices of overall geopolitical risk, geopolitical acts, and geopolitical threats against the four energy products. Based on daily data ranging from 1 January 1985 to 30 August 2021, the findings confirm the presence of nonlinear dependencies, suggesting that geopolitical risk and energy markets are interlinked. Furthermore, significant multifractal characteristics are found and the degree of multifractality is stronger between the overall geopolitical risk and WTI while the lowest degree of multifractality is with Brent. Overall, for the WTI and heating-oil markets, the influence of geopolitical threats is more pronounced rather than their fulfilment. Contrarily, the Brent and natural gas are more correlated to geopolitical acts. Energy products exhibit heterogeneous persistence levels of cross-correlation with all the indicators of geopolitical risk, being more persistent in the case of small fluctuations compared to large fluctuations.

14.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 2022 Mar 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1739403

ABSTRACT

Since markets are undergoing severe turbulent economic periods, this study investigates the information transmission of energy stock markets of five regions including North America, South America, Europe, Asia, and Pacific where we differentiated the regional energy markets based on their developing and developed state of economy. We employed time-frequency domain from Jan 1995 to May 2021 and found that energy stocks of developed regions are highly connected. The energy markets of North America, South America, and Europe are the net transmitters of spillovers, whereas the Asian and Pacific energy markets are the net receivers of spillovers. The results also reveal that the connectedness of regional energy markets is time and frequency dependent. Regional energy stocks were highly connected following the Asian financial crisis (AFC), global financial crisis (GFC), European debt crisis (EDC), shale oil revolution (SOR), and COVID-19 pandemic. Time-dependent results reveal that high spillovers formed during stress periods and frequency domain show the higher connectedness of regional energy stock markets in the short run followed by an extreme economic condition. These results have significant implications for policymakers, regulators, investors, and regional controlling bodies to adopt effective strategies during short run to avoid economic downturns and information distortions.

15.
Energy Econ ; 109: 105900, 2022 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1719689

ABSTRACT

This paper studies the connectedness among energy equity indices of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries around the world. For each country, we construct time-varying measures of how much shocks this country transmits to other countries and how much shocks this country receives from other countries. We analyze the network of countries and find that, on average, oil-exporting countries are mainly transmitting shocks, and oil-importing countries are mainly receiving shocks. Furthermore, we use panel data regressions to evaluate whether the connectedness among countries is influenced by economic sentiment, uncertainty, and the global COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the connectedness among countries increases significantly in periods of uncertainty, low economic sentiment, and COVID-19 problems. This implies that diversification benefits across countries are severely reduced exactly during crises, that is, during the times when diversification benefits are most important.

16.
Finance Research Letters ; : 102728, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1709077

ABSTRACT

Scholars seek to understand the role of agents in physical commodity trading as vehicles of information. COVID-19 provides an opportunity to examine whether energy markets are better informed than equity markets. We evidence that Chinese equity markets were much slower than international energy markets to react to the economic gravity of the COVID-19 situation, with significantly increased co-movements among global energy markets occurring months prior to analogous co-movements in equity markets. Scholars and practitioners interested in the comparative price informativeness of energy versus equity markets will find our results of great interest.

17.
2nd IEEE International Power and Renewable Energy Conference, IPRECON 2021 ; 2021.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1672794

ABSTRACT

During COVID-19 impact especially on energy markets, reliable electricity pricing has now become unpredictable and it becomes a challenging task to get prepared for the future price forecasting. The pandemic has mostly affected energy markets and efficient operation of the restructured electricity market effectively all over the world. In this work, the analysis of electricity price and forecasting is carried out on the wholesale market of United States namely MISO electricity market. Due to uncertainty of demand occurring during the pandemic period, the market price data is analyzed. And, using statistical learning and deep learning method day ahead price is forecasted which would prepare the electricity market to operate in an efficient manner to face such pandemics in the future. In this study, three methods are proposed namely Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), decision-tree-based ensemble Machine Learning algorithm namely Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGboost) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) for forecasting the electricity price. Depending upon the electricity price data attributes, the electricity price of MISO electricity market is predicted and forecasted. The performance of the methods to predict and forecast the electricity price is compared based on the processing speed and error. © 2021 IEEE.

18.
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering ; 10(1):23, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1631752

ABSTRACT

Exploitation of oil and gas resources in the Arctic offshore is one of Russia’s key priorities in such areas as science, economy, and technology. Global trends, harsh climate conditions, fragile ecosystems, conditions of the pandemic and post-pandemic periods, price volatility, and the growing importance of the environmental factor require that the process of developing the Arctic’s hydrocarbon resources should become strategically sustainable. The paper provides a deep literature review on sustainability issues, sustainable development, strategic sustainability, and project efficiency in the Arctic offshore oil and gas sector. The paper analyzes the trends and conditions that substantiate the need to transform the traditional sustainability concept to meet new challenges and comply with new policies. Based on the analysis, the authors propose a definition of and a conceptual framework for strategic sustainability of oil and gas offshore projects in the Arctic.

19.
8th ACM International Conference on Systems for Energy-Efficient Built Environments, BuildSys 2021 ; : 168-171, 2021.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1599143

ABSTRACT

The abrupt outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic was the most significant event in 2020, which had profound and lasting impacts across the world. Studies on energy markets observed a decline in energy demand and changes in energy consumption behaviors during COVID-19. However, as an essential part of system operation, how the load forecasting performs amid COVID-19 is not well understood. This paper aims to bridge the research gap by systematically evaluating models and features that can be used to improve the load forecasting performance amid COVID-19. Using real-world data from the New York Independent System Operator, our analysis employs three deep learning models and adopts both novel COVID-related features as well as classical weather-related features. We also propose simulating the stay-at-home situation with pre-stay-at-home weekend data and demonstrate its effectiveness in improving load forecasting accuracy during COVID-19. © 2021 ACM.

20.
Applied Economics ; : 16, 2021.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1585635

ABSTRACT

This paper provides a comparative analysis of how the energy-sector stocks of 20 regional blocs (Americas, Australasia, BRIC, Southeast Asia, Scandinavia, Southern Europe, Far East, Europe, European Union, Emerging Europe, Asia, G7, G12, Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), CCARBNS, Latin America, North America, PIIGS, Asia-Pacific and NORCS) are connected from 5 July 1994 to 21 April 2020. It uses various techniques: Diebold and Yilmaz (2014)(DY 2014, hereafter) spillover indices and TVP-VAR, LASSO-VAR. Our main results are as follows: First, the DY approach results show that the biggest net contributor of volatility is the CCARBNS region, followed by the G12 and G7 regions, while the biggest receiver of volatility is the Southeast Asia region. Second, the TVP-VAR and LASSO-VAR results reveal that Scandinavia, Far East, and America's regions are net receivers of energy shocks, with net transmitters being CCARBNS, G7, G12 and Emerging European regions. Third, during the 2007-2008 financial crisis and recent COVID-19 outbreak, energy stock market spillovers have reached unprecedented high levels. Fourth, the world policy uncertainty greatly influenced the magnitude of volatility spillovers across regional energy stock markets.

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