Predicting COVID-19 Pandemic Endpoint in Some Sub-Saharan African and European Countries

In this study, a novel modified SIR model is presented with two control measures to predict the endpoint of COVID-19, in top three sub-Saharan African countries (South Africa, Ethiopia, and Kenya) including Ghana and top four European countries (France, Germany, UK, and Italy). The reproduction number's sensitivity indices with regard to the model parameters were explicitly derived and then numerically evaluated. Numerical simulations of the suggested optimal control schemes in general showed a continuous result of decline at different anticipated extinction timelines. Another interesting observation was that in the simulation of sub-Saharan African dynamics, it was observed that the use of personal protective equipment was more effective than the use of vaccination, whereas in Europe, the use of vaccination was more effective than personal protective equipment. From the simulations, the conclusion is that COVID-19 will end before the 3rd year in Ghana, before the 6th year in Kenya, and before the 9th year in both Ethiopia and South Africa. © 2023 Saviour Worlanyo Akuamoah et al.

The impact of Digitalized Communication on the effectiveness of Local Administrative Authorities – Findings from Central European Countries in the COVID-19 Crisis

This paper analyses the impact of the use of digital communication tools in administrative procedures on the effectiveness of local administrative authorities during the COVID-19 pandemic. It considers COVID-19-driven changes in the legal competence of the institutional unit and administrative authorities' orientation to good governance as mediators of this relationship. By applying partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) to survey data (N = 610) from five central European countries, we show that the accelerated use of digitalized communication tools driven by the COVID-19 situation has a positive effect on the effectiveness of local administrative authorities. Our data also indicate that the new laws, instructions and good governance driven by the COVID-19 situation – based on mostly convergent administrative traditions and European trends – partially mediate the relationship between the use of digital communication tools and administrative effectiveness. These findings do not significantly differ between participating countries and bureaucratic traditions. Consequently, the COVID-19 crisis proved to be a joint facilitator of responsive public governance that remained compliant with the rule of law, regardless of whether the national administrative systems were traditionally more legalistically or managerially oriented.

Predicting COVID-19 future trends for different European countries using Pearson correlation.

The ability to accurately forecast the number of COVID-19 cases and future case trends would certainly assist governments and various organisations in strategising and preparing for the newly infected cases well in advance. Many predictions have failed to foresee future COVID-19 cases due to the lack of reliable data; however, such data are now widely available for predicting future trends in COVID-19 after more than one and a half years of the pandemic. Also, various countries are closely monitoring other countries that are experiencing a surge in COVID-19 cases in the expectation of similar scenarios, but this does not always produce correct results, as no research has identified specific correlations between different countries in terms of COVID-19 cases. During the past 18 months, many nations have watched countries whose COVID-19 cases have risen sharply, in anticipation of handling the situation themselves. However, this did not provide accurate results, as no research was conducted that compared countries to determine if their COVID-19 case trends were correlated. As official data on COVID-19 cases has become increasingly available, using the Pearson correlation technique to pinpoint the countries that should be closely monitored will help governments plan and prepare for the number of infections that are expected in the future at an early stage. In this study, a simple and real-time prediction of COVID-19 cases incorporating existing variables of coronavirus variants was used to explore the correlation among different European countries in terms of the number of COVID-19 cases officially recorded on a daily basis. Data from selected countries over the past 76 weeks were analysed using a Pearson correlation technique to determine if there were correlations between case trends and geographical position. The correlation coefficient (r) was employed for identifying whether the different countries in Europe were interrelated, with r > 0.85 indicating they were very strongly correlated, 0.85 > r > 0.8 indicating that they were strongly correlated, 0.8 > r > 0.7 indicating that they were moderately correlated, and r < 0.7 indicating that the examined countries were either weakly correlated or that a correlation did not exist. The results showed that although some neighbouring countries are strongly correlated, other countries that are not geographically close are also correlated. In addition, some countries on opposite sides of Europe (Belgium and Armenia) are also correlated. Other countries (France, Iceland, Israel, Kosovo, San Marino, Spain, Sweden and Turkey) were either weakly correlated or had no relationship at all.