Global uncertainty shocks and exchange-rate expectations in Latin America

Do professional exchange-rate forecasters change their projections upon global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) shocks? Significant effects have been identified for major currencies, but emerging-market currencies are usually more difficult to predict and less related to global shocks. We study this question for five Latin-American currencies: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru using data for the period 2003–2020. Our results show that global EPU shocks lead to significant upward revisions implying expected exchange-rate depreciations on a 12-month horizon. Using time-varying coefficients, we find intensified impacts during crisis events such as the great financial crisis, and the initial COVID-19 emergency. These non-linear effects from global EPU shocks are new in the literature. Our results are not only robust to the use of alternative measures of global uncertainty, but are also consistent with the forward-looking nature of economic expectations given the documented negative effects of EPU shocks on global investment and consumption. © 2023 Elsevier B.V.

Examining the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on international migrants' repatriation intention using structural equation modeling

Purpose: COVID-19 pandemic has shattered the economic systems all around the world while creating numerous problems which were faced by all, especially international migrants. The present study offers a qualitative and quantitative perspective on the distress of international migrants and their repatriation intention during the pandemic period. Design/methodology/approach: In-depth semi-structured interviews of 30 respondents belonging to five host nations, Australia, the USA, the UK, New Zealand and Canada, revealed diverse issues. Based on qualitative study findings and past literature, 22 purposeful statements about six constructs – financial issues, social issues, mobility constraints, psychological problems, healthcare issues, and repatriation intentions – were developed. These statements were measured on a seven-point Likert scale and shared online with international migrants from India residing in the host nations. Data collected from 496 international migrants from October 2020 to July 2021 were used to analyze the influence of various determinants on the repatriation intentions by partial least square-structural equation modeling using SmartPLS software. Findings: The analysis results revealed that the role of financial, social, mobility, psychological and healthcare issues was significant in strengthening the repatriation intentions of the migrants. There is a need to create job opportunities, retrain laid-off workers and formulate migrant inclusive policies. Originality/value: Although some studies have highlighted a few problems faced by international migrants, their impact on repatriation intentions has not been studied yet. The present study fills this gap and analyzes the repatriation intention of international migrants in light of different problems they faced during the pandemic. Peer review: The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-04-2022-0233. © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Analyzing interconnection among selected commodities in the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic

This study investigates the interconnection among several commodities in the advent of two well-known phenomena: the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a daily return series for selected commodities: three base metals (copper, zinc, and lead), two benchmark crude oils (WTI and Brent), and gold. Three different methods have been considered to study interconnection: Multifractality, Network theory, and Wavelet coherences. By applying Detrending Moving-average Cross-correlation Analysis (DMCA) method, we witnessed an increase in cross-correlation in the higher time windows in most time series. Generally, we observe that the benchmark crude oils have the highest relationships, and then, in the following positions, we have the dependency among base metals (copper, lead, and zinc) and between the base metals and the crude oils. In the context of the Wavelet analysis, we notice that the significant fluctuations and changes in the extent of interconnections among data could be traced when the two crises occurred, particularly between October 2018 and April 2021, and in the frequency range of 4-128 days. This phenomenon indicates the role of the COVID-19 pandemic in creating a volatile situation in the commodity markets. The findings of this study have significant implications for investors, academic researchers, and policymakers.

Earnings management during the COVID-19 crisis: evidence from the Brazilian and American capital markets

PurposeThe main purpose of this study is to evaluate whether the COVID-19 pandemic has stimulated earnings management among publicly traded companies in Brazil and the USA.Design/methodology/approachThe authors analyzed the above-mentioned effects based on 22,244 observations of Brazilian companies and 139,856 observations of American companies from 1998 to 2020. The proxy used to detect earnings management based on discretionary accruals (DAC) was obtained by using the Modified Jones Model (MJM) (Dechow et al., 1995), with adjustments suggested by Kothari et al. (2005). In accordance with previous studies (e.g. Brown et al., 2015;Enomoto et al., 2015;Galdi et al., 2020;Huang and Sun, 2017;Roychowdhury, 2006), the authors also employed a second proxy to detect earnings management through real activities associated with unusual losses for fixed assets (property, plant and equipment (PPE)).FindingsThe study's findings indicate that the discretionary accruals of Brazilian companies varied in a more accentuated manner during the COVID-19 pandemic, making it possible to deduce that a recent history of economic depression may entail greater incentives for earnings management in an emerging economy. In addition, the authors verified that the effects of the current crisis on earnings management proxies denote a signal that is distinct from previous economic crises, which may be interpreted as an attempt to postpone the effects of the pandemic on financial statements, especially those of the Brazilian capital markets.Originality/valueUnlike previous crises, this pandemic has led to direct restrictions on a wide variety of economic segments rather than indirect contagion due to anomalies in the financial markets, making it a phenomenon with the characteristics of a quasi-natural experiment for studies related to the quality of accounting information. Considering that both Brazil and the USA provide an opportune economic contrast, given their discrepancies in terms of economic growth over the past two decades, the researchers believe that there is an unusual opportunity to understand how earnings management can be an incentive for managers in environments where crises arose from natural causes.

How accountants responded to the financial fallout owing to the COVID-19 pandemic

Purpose: Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the last time a crisis affected businesses worldwide by putting economies into hibernation was in 1918 – the Great Influenza Pandemic. Environmental, social and governance frameworks require businesses to respond to such crises as it significantly changes the business environment. With approximately 2.84 million accountants existing across 130 countries, this study aims to determine whether the accounting profession responded to this crisis. As these responses can provide insights into the type of activities accountants performed during the lockdown, the authors analysed them for emerging themes and identified changes in the way that accountants performed tasks. Design/methodology/approach: Using search engines, the authors examined publicly available secondary sources such as websites of professional bodies, the Big Four and mid-tier accounting firms and government organisations using the keyword "COVID-19” to identify responses on issues faced by accountants during the 2020 lockdown period in New Zealand. The authors used interpretive text analysis to examine the responses for emerging themes. Findings: The accountants' responses to the COVID-19 pandemic emphasised information technology and soft skills but most importantly the interaction, integration and immersion of technical skills with information technology and soft skills. The findings also highlight changes in the way accountants performed their tasks. Originality/value: The study insights enable accounting academics to better understand the interconnection between hard and soft skills for incorporating it in syllabi, thereby preparing students for future roles. In addition, the study findings will assist both practitioners and researchers to explore the emerging changes in the way accountants perform their tasks. © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Diversification during Hard Times

Using a large sample of stocks from 48 developed and emerging markets over 1995 to 2021, we find evidence that suggests that international diversification is the best risk-reduction tool when all markets are considered. However, after the turn of the millennium, industrial diversification is the best alternative for funds limited to developed markets, especially when they are restricted to a region. Importantly, the benefits of diversification persist through hard times, such as the Asian financial crisis, the IT bubble burst, the global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrating their countercyclicality and proving their value when investors need them the most. © 2023 CFA Institute. All rights reserved.

Efficiency of the financial markets during the COVID-19 crisis: Time-varying parameters of fractional stable dynamics

This paper investigates the impact of COVID-19 on financial markets. It focuses on the evolution of the market efficiency, using two efficiency indicators: the Hurst exponent and the memory parameter of a fractional Lévy-stable motion. The second approach combines, in the same model of dynamic, an alpha-stable distribution and a dependence structure between price returns. We provide a dynamic estimation method for the two efficiency indicators. This method introduces a free parameter, the discount factor, which we select so as to get the best alpha-stable density forecasts for observed price returns. The application to stock indices during the COVID-19 crisis shows a strong loss of efficiency for US indices. On the opposite, Asian and Australian indices seem less affected and the inefficiency of these markets during the COVID-19 crisis is even questionable. © 2022 Elsevier B.V.

Are government bonds still safe havens in the context of COVID-19?

This study analyzes whether government bonds can act as safe havens in the context of COVID-19. Using a panel fixed effect model, data were collected for both advanced and emerging market economies from March 11, 2020, to June 30, 2021. Robustness tests were used to add to the credibility of the findings. Our evidence supports that government bonds maintained their safe haven status during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hence, investors can still use government bonds to hedge financial market risks in the uncertain environment associated with this pandemic. Additionally, the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on government bond yields in emerging economies are larger than in advanced economies. Therefore, policymakers' measures should focus on reducing COVID-19 cases to alleviate panic and diminish economic fluctuations, especially for emerging economies. Regulators can also use short-term interest rates to guide market capital flow to avoid a liquidity crisis, reducing financial stress and market uncertainty. © 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

A novel approach to conducting business research after COVID-19: incorporating crisis elements in the study frameworks

Purpose: To understand how to deal with high effect situations, like that associated with COVID-19, in the future, many economists, academics and business leaders are drawing parallels between the 2008 financial crisis and the current pandemic. This study aims to explore how crisis elements can be considered while strategizing for business research despite the minimal possibility of an emergency occurring. Also, research in crisis management is fragmented, resulting in isolated components guiding businesses through crises. This research emphasizes the relative scarcity of a comprehensive crisis management framework. Design/methodology/approach: COVID-19 has been the biggest crisis the world has ever confronted, and businesses require an innovative strategy to address it. Towards keeping the data set involved in this study targeted and manageable, articles are selected from peer-reviewed journals based on a purposive sampling method. In addition, the research used reports from consulting firms and government and nongovernment organizations to understand current trends in business research. Findings: The findings revealed that for a firm to survive a crisis, it must ensure its plans are aligned with the trends that would allow it to grow during the crisis. Rather than entirely changing the track, strategies should be guided by the company's existing resource availability and capabilities. The techniques used must ensure the company's profitability or limit losses, thus ensuring long-term viability. Real-life examples from the current pandemic have shown how firms who recognized crisis characteristics could survive the pandemic and profited multiple times. Originality/value: It presents an integrated, sector-agnostic crisis management framework based on literature, business managers' insights and lessons from the current pandemic. Precrisis, crisis arrival, crisis management and crisis experience are the four phases of the framework. The study proposes future research directions to scholars in applying the framework and its enhancement concerning the upcoming crisis possibilities. © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Detecting Nonlinear Interactions in Complex Systems: Application in Financial Markets.

Emerging or diminishing nonlinear interactions in the evolution of a complex system may signal a possible structural change in its underlying mechanism. This type of structural break may exist in many applications, such as in climate and finance, and standard methods for change-point detection may not be sensitive to it. In this article, we present a novel scheme for detecting structural breaks through the occurrence or vanishing of nonlinear causal relationships in a complex system. A significance resampling test was developed for the null hypothesis (H0) of no nonlinear causal relationships using (a) an appropriate Gaussian instantaneous transform and vector autoregressive (VAR) process to generate the resampled multivariate time series consistent with H0; (b) the modelfree Granger causality measure of partial mutual information from mixed embedding (PMIME) to estimate all causal relationships; and (c) a characteristic of the network formed by PMIME as test statistic. The significance test was applied to sliding windows on the observed multivariate time series, and the change from rejection to no-rejection of H0, or the opposite, signaled a non-trivial change of the underlying dynamics of the observed complex system. Different network indices that capture different characteristics of the PMIME networks were used as test statistics. The test was evaluated on multiple synthetic complex and chaotic systems, as well as on linear and nonlinear stochastic systems, demonstrating that the proposed methodology is capable of detecting nonlinear causality. Furthermore, the scheme was applied to different records of financial indices regarding the global financial crisis of 2008, the two commodity crises of 2014 and 2020, the Brexit referendum of 2016, and the outbreak of COVID-19, accurately identifying the structural breaks at the identified times.

Monetary Policy After the Coronavirus Crisis

In response to the global coronavirus crisis, central banks all over the world have cut interest rates and introduced other measures to ease monetary policy. The aim of this chapter is to analyze this response, how it changed compared with their response to the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, and how monetary policy might evolve further. In particular, I examine the adequacy of aggregate demand management and interest rate cuts in reference to the global coronavirus crisis and the potential economic impact of the interest rates staying lower for longer. I argue that setting interest rates too low for too long can impair their signaling and allocation functions and cause significant harm in the long run, such as misallocation of resources, excessive risk-taking, zombification of the economy, and accumulation of too much debt. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

The impacts of oil price volatility on financial stress: Is the COVID-19 period different?

This study analyses the effects of oil price volatility on financial stress with various measures for a large panel of countries. The study places a special focus on comparing the pattern of these effects during the Great Recession period and the COVID-19 recession period. Using the local projection approach, the paper finds that oil price volatility has a positive and persistent effect on financial stress. However, the magnitude and the degree of persistency of oil price volatility impacts on financial stress are much greater for the Great Recession period than for the COVID-19 recession period. A possible explanation for this result would be that COVID-19 is better thought of as a "natural disaster” in which companies under stress were not being mismanaged. Another explanation would be that active intervention by the government through monetary and fiscal channels reduces the sensitivity of financial instability to oil price volatility during the COVID-19 period.

Venture capital financing during crises: A bibliometric review

We present the publication trends in the literature on venture capital financing during crises and highlight the top publishing source with the most contributing authors in their affiliated countries using bibliometric and content analysis of 115 documents retrieved from the Scopus database. This study provides insight into the theme with the help of co-occurrence, co-citation, and bibliographic coupling analysis. The authors' keyword co-occurrence analysis shows the spatial links among the articles based on venture capital during the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The top productive and influential source is the journal Venture Capital, followed by Small Business Economics and the Journal of Business Venturing. The Journal of Business Venturing is the top journal in terms of citations per document. The United States is the most contributing affiliated country having strong links with several nations. The publications on crisis-led venture capital increased significantly after the financial crisis of 2008.

Research on the Influence of Securities Markets on Cross-Border Capital Flows Based on the DCC-MVGARCH Model

In the study of the impact of cross-border capital flows, most scholars at home and abroad focus on the method of linear time series mainly based on the vector autoregressive model (VAR), ignoring the volatility of variables in time series. In order to make up for the deficiency, the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) model can be used to study the nonlinear time-varying correlation between variables. With the help of Eviews12 software and the DCC-MVGARCH model, this paper studies the impact of securities markets on cross-border capital flows in China from domestic and foreign perspectives in the context of two financial crises and COVID-19. The results indicate that financial crises affect the correlation between the securities markets and cross-border capital flows. China's stock market is positively correlated with short-term capital flows and negatively correlated with long-term capital flows. Its booming bond market promotes short-term capital flows but fails to affect the long-term capital flows, and China's short-term capital flows are increasingly linked to the volatility of foreign stock markets. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the mechanism for better monitoring and analyzing cross-border capital flows, promote further development of financial supervision, and guide market players to face the securities market rationally. © 2023 SPIE.

Can we learn lessons from the past? COVID‐19 crisis and corporate governance responses

The coronavirus (COVID‐19) pandemic has seriously threatened the lives of the people. The pandemic has also threatened the survival of the firms, which has drawn the attention of policymakers and corporate governance practitioners around the world. In this study, we focus on how corporate governance practices can help firms to survive during COVID‐19 crisis. For this purpose, we take insights from prior crises by reviewing leading business journals articles and identify key corporate governance mechanisms that could potentially be effective in the ongoing COVID‐19 crisis. Our review of a large body of literature highlights several governance mechanisms that may help firms to cope with COVID‐19 crisis. These governance attributes include risk management committees, board diversity, independent directors, foreign investors, institutional ownership, ownership concentration, CEO's dual roles, block ownership, and family ownership. We provide several policy implications after reviewing the corporate governance literature. Our review illustrates that firms may be subject to at least one of the identified governance mechanisms and they may learn how these governance attributes can be effective in the COVID‐19 crisis. Our review illustrates that independent risk management committees, institutional ownership, board independence, blockholders, and family ownership are some of the essential and effective governance mechanisms compared to other governance attributes during COVID‐19 crisis.

What can we learn about repurchase programmes and systemic risk? Evidence from US banks during financial turmoil

This paper contributes to the debate on systemic risk by measuring and comparing systemic risk and interconnectedness when banks repurchase shares during financial turmoil. It assesses the extent to which buyback programmes within banks contribute to systemic risk, relying on several measures of systemic risk and connectedness in a sample of 112 US banks during both a tranquil and an unstable period. Empirical results reveal remarkable increases in systemic risk in repurchasing banks compared to non-repurchasing banks and they are more exposed to it in difficult periods such as the European debt crisis and COVID-19. Banks that repurchased shares strengthened indirect links during systemic events and are potentially riskier. The results also classify and rank banks in terms of systemic risk involvement and connectedness and contribute to the identification of systematically important banks. © Henry Stewart Publications 1752-8887 (2023).

Volatility contagion between oil and the stock markets of G7 countries plus India and China

It is imperative to analyze over the potential risks persisting in the financial systems from time to time. In this connection, this study examines volatility spillover between crude oil price and stock prices of G7 plus India and China using Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) technique from Jan 4, 2005–June 9, 2021. Although, our results show high stock market returns volatility connectedness among the sample countries but we find no significant transmission between oil prices and stock markets for the whole sample. The sub-sample results indicate that the period marked by COVID-19 witnessed substantial bidirectional spillovers between oil market and stock market. Empirical results of this study is expected to offer important policy inputs for investors, and policymakers to devise cautious strategies concerning their investments during uncertainties.

Post COVID-19 exit strategies and emerging markets economic challenges.

We study emerging markets' 1980s lost growth decade, triggered by the massive reversal of the snowball effect in the US during 1974-1984, finding that higher flow costs of servicing debt overhang explain the dramatic decline in growth rates of exposed emerging markets. We also show how lowering the US cost of servicing its public debt has been associated with higher US, Japan, and Western Europe real output growth rates during the post WWII recovery decades, 1946-1956, and validate that fiscal adjustments of large countries have strong growth and volatility spillovers effects on exposed emerging markets and developing countries.

Monetary Policy After the Coronavirus Crisis

In response to the global coronavirus crisis, central banks all over the world have cut interest rates and introduced other measures to ease monetary policy. The aim of this chapter is to analyze this response, how it changed compared with their response to the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, and how monetary policy might evolve further. In particular, I examine the adequacy of aggregate demand management and interest rate cuts in reference to the global coronavirus crisis and the potential economic impact of the interest rates staying lower for longer. I argue that setting interest rates too low for too long can impair their signaling and allocation functions and cause significant harm in the long run, such as misallocation of resources, excessive risk-taking, zombification of the economy, and accumulation of too much debt. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Contagion Risk in Equity Markets During Financial Crises and COVID-19: A Comparison of Developed and Emerging Markets

This study compared the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic on financial market contagion between developed and emerging markets. A DCC-GARCH model was employed to test the contagion effects of developed and emerging markets using weekly returns for the S&P 500 (US), FTSE-100 (UK), ASX 200 (AUS), IBOVESPA (BRA), BSE SENSEX (IND) and BVM IPC (MEX). The results show that there was a persuasive case made for the integration of markets for efficient financial systems. A crisis occurring in one market holds significant repercussions for any of the connected markets. The findings show that the COVID-19 pandemic affected all the markets more severely than the GFC and contagion effects were more pronounced in emerging markets than in developed markets during the GFC and the pandemic. Consequently, policymakers in emerging markets should implement policies that reduce external vulnerabilities and improve their markets' stability to reduce the impact of contagion risk.