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1.
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics ; 66(4):753-774, 2022.
Article in English | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-2152562

ABSTRACT

This paper begins with a survey of recent commodity price developments that highlights the magnitude of this price surge and identifies the rapid rise in wheat prices as a key element. The analysis in this paper focuses on the extent to which domestic markets are insulated from these changes and on the resulting impacts on world prices. An econometric analysis using error-correction models finds stable long-term relationships between world wheat prices and most domestic prices of wheat and wheat products, but with considerable variation across countries in the rate of price transmission. A case study of the price shocks during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine food price crisis finds that price insulation roughly doubled the overall increase in world wheat prices and raised their volatility both during periods of price increase and price decline.

2.
Energy Economics ; 116:106422, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2122438

ABSTRACT

Many African countries experienced social disorder and subsequent political instability as a result of global commodity price inflation in 2007–2008, which reaffirmed the importance of overseas factors such as biofuel production, international food and energy prices, and financial speculation. Biofuel, in particular, is often placed at the center of the debate around identifying potential determinants of food price hikes. We apply a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) extended joint connectedness approach to uncover the dynamic connectivity of African food prices, US biofuel production, global energy and food prices, and financial speculation. The key findings are;1) the results of averaged connectedness suggest that US biofuel production and financial speculation in agricultural commodities significantly influence African food prices;2) the hefty surges in the dynamic connectedness between African food prices and four cross-border factors are triggered by global events like the 2000 dot-com bubble, the 2008 global commodity boom, and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic;3) arbitrage transactions transmitted intense shocks to African food prices between 2001 and 2012, while biofuel production constantly affected African food prices between 2001 and 2021. We draw pragmatic policy implications to prevent or mitigate market shock transmissions to African food markets.

3.
Alanya Academic Review ; 6(3):3009-3028, 2022.
Article in English | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-2113636

ABSTRACT

The purpose of the study is to assess the effects of COVID-19 induced spike in food prices on urban households' food security status in Northwest, Nigeria. Primary data through structured questionnaires were collected for the study. A multistage random sampling resulted into sample size of 240 urban households (samples). Primary data was used for the study. The results of variables used for the fixed effect regression shows that the mean price was 200, average household size was 7 persons per household, the average age and education was 45 and 10 years, respectively. The results of price trend before and during COVID-19 pandemic shows significant differences in all the four (4) cereal crops investigated. The result of the food security levels of households reveals that majority of the households (95%) were food secure before the outbreak of COVID-19 while the food secure households dropped to78% during COVID-19. The fixed-effects regression shows that the coefficients of price (1.05), household size (0.02), COVID-19 loan (-0.134e-7) and household income (0.015) were found to have statistically significant effects on food security status of households. The findings from this study will help guide governments at various levels in Nigeria in policy formulation towards ameliorating the sufferings of households in the study area. In addition, NGOs and other concerned local and international organisations can rely on this study as a guide for distributing COVID-19 relief find and further research.

4.
Technical Bulletin - Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture 2022. (TB-1957):26 pp. ; 2022.
Article in English | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-2046070

ABSTRACT

The USDA, Economic Research Service's Food Price Outlook (FPO) provides monthly forecasts of annual food price percent changes up to 18 months in advance. The forecasts add value to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer and Producer Price Indexes (CPI, PPI) by giving farmers, wholesalers, retailers, institutional buyers, consumers, and policymakers a uniform set of predictions about food prices. The more accurate the predictions, the more value FPO contributes. Events such as recent natural disasters, the Great Recession, the Food Crisis of 2011, and the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted the importance of food price forecasting and the need for improvements to the forecasting methodology to enhance accuracy and treat uncertainty more rigorously. This technical bulletin describes a time-series-based approach for forecasting food prices which provides enhanced precision, removes potential biases from the specification process, and allows for a clearer characterization of uncertainty about future food prices. Four case studies are included to illustrate how these forecasts can be used.

5.
Journal of Economic Studies ; 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2032225

ABSTRACT

Purpose This research examines the impact of lockdown stringency measures and COVID-19 cases on food and healthcare prices in six Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Turkey (BRICST) countries. This research is conducted in these countries since previous studies failed to examine the effect of COVID-19 reported cases on food and healthcare prices. Design/methodology/approach To achieve the objectives of this study, food and healthcare services were regressed against CVC and lockdown stringency measures using the dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (DARDL) model. For this purpose, we used daily data for BRICST countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Turkey. Findings The empirical evidence indicates that, in the long run, COVID-19 cases significantly and positively affect both food and healthcare prices in India, South Africa and China. In contrast, in the short run, COVID-19 positively affects food and healthcare prices in all countries except Russia and Turkey. Similarly, in the long run, the government stringency index (GSI) and Containment and Health Index (CHI) significantly affect health prices in India and South Africa. In contrast, GSI and CHI significantly affect healthcare prices in South Africa only in the short run. Finally, GSI and CHI significantly affect the food prices in the long run in India, South Africa and China and in the short run in South Africa only. Originality/value The widespread impact of the new Coronavirus (COVID-19) has made the world panic. COVID-19 affected all spheres of life, including food supplies and healthcare services. However, most of the empirical research failed to examine the impact of COVID-19 cases on food and healthcare prices which is the main focus of this study. Moreover, in the given context, the authors use a recently developed model that the previous studies failed to use.

6.
Alanya Academic Review ; 6(2):2481-2498, 2022.
Article in Turkish | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-2026415

ABSTRACT

In this study, the time-varying dynamic relationships among real exchange rate, average real oil price and food inflation is investigated in Turkey during the period of 2006:1-2021:12. For this reason, TVP-VAR models are applied. The findings from this study revealed that the pass-through effect of real exchange rate on food inflation increases rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic, and this effect reaches the highest level in October 2021 in which the fluctuations in exchange rate occured. Besides, it is detected that raises in average oil prices significantly enhance food inflation since the vaccination proccess, starting in early 2021, has caused increases in production and demand.

7.
Policy Research Working Paper - World Bank 2022. (10080):40 pp. many ref. ; 2022.
Article in English | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-2012695

ABSTRACT

This paper presents evidence on the extent to which a set of real-time indicators tracked changes in gross domestic product across 142 countries in 2020. The real-time indicators include Google mobility, Google search trends, food price information, nitrogen dioxide, and nighttime lights. Google mobility and staple food prices both declined sharply in March and April, followed by a rapid recovery that returned to baseline levels by July and August. Mobility and staple food prices fell less in low-income countries. Nitrogen dioxide levels show a similar pattern, with a steep fall and rapid recovery in high-income and upper-middle-income countries but not in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. In April and May, Google search terms reflecting economic distress and religiosity spiked in some regions but not others. Data on nighttime lights show no clear drop in March outside East Asia. Linear models selected using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator explain about a third of the variation in annual gross domestic product growth rates across 72 countries. In a smaller subset of higher income countries, real-time indicators explain about 40 percent of the variation in quarterly gross domestic product growth. Overall, mobility and food price data, as well as pollution data in more developed countries, appeared to be best at capturing the widespread economic disruption experienced during the summer of 2020. The results indicate that these real-time indicators can track a substantial percentage of both annual and quarterly changes in gross domestic product.

8.
African Journal of Inter/Multidisciplinary Studies ; 3(1):131-143, 2021.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2002899

ABSTRACT

This study assesses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food consumption habits, food purchasing behaviours, and food security status among South African adults. The researchers conducted an online consumer survey for the month of October 2020. Approximately two-thirds of participants were youth and women, predominantly from KwaZulu-Natal. A significant number of participants reported to either having remained the same weight or gained weight. Changes in food consumption habits included a significant increase in snack consumption, increased water consumption, and improved food skills. Notably, no food was eaten significantly more than before COVID-19 and no food was eaten significantly less than before COVID-19. Regarding food purchasing behaviours, a significantly high number of participants indicated that food prices increased during the lockdown. Whilst a significant number of participants indicated that they had no difficulties eating enough food, a significant number of participants reported that they could not afford to buy more food and as a coping strategy resorted to planting vegetables. The findings of this survey provide an advancement of knowledge on food consumption, food purchasing behaviours, and food security status during emergency situations as well as long-term food-related strategies.

9.
Seguranca Alimentar e Nutricional ; 28(10), 2021.
Article in Portuguese | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-2002732

ABSTRACT

This dossier includes articles highlighting current data on food prices and gathered economic information that points to the exploratory social impacts of food insecurity on the most vulnerable populations during the COVID-19 pandemic.

10.
SciDev.net ; 2021.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1998437

ABSTRACT

Speed read COVID-19 has thrown food insecurity into stark relief Food prices up nearly a third year-on-year - FAO Value chains, waste, nutrition must be urgently targeted Hikes in oil prices, conflicts, emerging diseases, poor governance, and disruption in supply chains due to transportation blockages during the pandemic have come together to create a potentially devastating scenario for the global food system, a panel on food security heard. “The pandemic has provided a really stark indicator of the need for more resilient food systems with fundamental change needed if we’re going to build sustainable systems that can help to address the linked challenges of feeding a growing population, supporting growth and jobs, and protecting our planet from climate change and environmental degradation,” CABI’s chief executive Daniel Elger told the meeting. Moses Mwale, director of agriculture in Zambia’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, emphasised that monitoring and tracking of food security and nutrition indicators is a vital component of enabling a robust food system.

11.
Xinan Jiaotong Daxue Xuebao/Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University ; 57(3):138-151, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1994958

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to analyze the volatility of broiler meat prices before, in the beginning, and during the Covid-19 pandemic in traditional and modern markets in Jambi City and the forecast model. This study uses weekly time series data on broiler meat prices with the following periods: a) before the Covid-19 pandemic, the period March 2019 to February 2020;b) the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic for the period March 2020 to August 2020;c) the Covid-19 pandemic period September 2020 to August 2021, sourced from the National Strategic Food Price Information Center. Data analysis was conducted using the coefficient of variation, ARIMA, ARCH, and GARCH. The price volatility of broiler meat in traditional markets is higher than in modern markets before, early, and during the Covid-19 pandemic. The highest price volatility occurred before the Covid-19 pandemic. The ARIMA model can predict the future price value of broiler meat in traditional and modern markets. The novelty of this research is the behavioral diversity and volatility of broiler meat prices before, in the beginning, and during the Covid-19 pandemic in traditional and modern markets in Jambi City. In addition, another novelty is the right forecast model to predict the future broiler meat prices in traditional and modern markets. © 2022 Science Press. All rights reserved.

12.
Sustainability ; 14(15):9715, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1994199

ABSTRACT

Land-use transition is one of the most profound human-induced alterations of the Earth’s system. It can support better land management and decision-making for increasing the yield of food production to fulfill the food needs in a specific area. However, modeling land-use change involves the complexity of human drivers and natural or environmental constraints. This study develops an agent-based model (ABM) for land use transitions using critical indicators that contribute to food deserts. The model’s performance was evaluated using Guilford County, North Carolina, as a case study. The modeling inputs include land covers, climate variability (rainfall and temperature), soil quality, land-use-related policies, and population growth. Studying the interrelationships between these factors can improve the development of effective land-use policies and help responsible agencies and policymakers plan accordingly to improve food security. The agent-based model illustrates how and when individuals or communities could make specific land-cover transitions to fulfill the community’s food needs. The results indicate that the agent-based model could effectively monitor land use and environmental changes to visualize potential risks over time and help the affected communities plan accordingly.

13.
Energies ; 15(15):5473, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1993962

ABSTRACT

The well-being of human populations and their sustainable development are strongly predicated on energy and food security. This is even more true of Africa due to often suboptimal food production, undernourishment, and extreme poverty. This article researches the relationship between energy and food security using Cobb–Douglas production functions based on the World Development Indicators data for 28 African countries. The methodological approach includes cross-sectional dependence and unit root tests, instrumental variables two-stage least-squares and generalized method of moments, and panel Driscoll–Kraay standard errors. Results suggest that the promotion of energy security promotes food security. This is possible because food production and distribution are energy-intensive. Therefore, energy is fundamental to achieving food security and zero hunger. The availability, affordability, accessibility, and acceptability of energy can thus help to fix the growing agricultural production shortage in Africa. An important policy focus should be on achieving energy security.

14.
Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies ; 12(3):463-476, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1985359

ABSTRACT

Purpose>This paper aims to investigate how differently the COVID-19 blockade regulations influence the prices of perishable and storable foods. The authors focus on the cases of the 2020 blockade at Hubei province and the 2021 blockade at Shijiazhuang city in China, and the authors examine how the blockade influenced the prices of Chinese cabbages (perishable) and potatoes (storable) within and around the blockade area.Design/methodology/approach>The paper employs the fixed effects model, the panel VAR (PVAR) model, and the spatial dynamic panel (SPD) model to estimate the impacts of the blockade on the food prices. It constructs the unique data set of 3-day average prices of Chinese cabbages and potatoes at main wholesale markets in China during the two urban blockade periods from January 1 to April 8 in 2020 and from January 1 to March 1 in 2021.Findings>The results from the SPD models indicate that the price of Chinese cabbages was more vulnerable and increased by 7.1–9.8% due to the two blockades while the price of potatoes increased by 1.2–6.1%. The blockades also significantly influenced the prices in the areas adjacent to the blockade area. The SPD results demonstrate that the impacts of the blockades would be overestimated if the spatial dependence is not controlled for in the fixed effects model and the PVAR model.Research limitations/implications>Because the research focuses on the cases in China, the results may lack generalizability. Further research for other countries is encouraged.Originality/value>This paper demonstrates the importance of considering food types and spatial dependence in examining the impact of the COVID-19 blockades on food prices.

15.
British Food Journal ; 124(9):2705-2721, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1985241

ABSTRACT

Purpose>Data from the Northern Ireland (NI) Health Survey 2014/15 (n = 2,231) were statistically analysed to examine the prevalence of food insecurity according to both indicators. Pearson's X2 test for association and logistic regressions were used to examine associations between food security status and predictor variables.Design/methodology/approach>Household food insecurity has been identified as a significant societal issue in both developed and developing nations, but there exists no universal indicator to approximate its prevalence. In NI, two indicators (United States Household Food Security Survey Module [HFSSM] and the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions [EU-SILC] food deprivation questions) have been used. This study examines how both indicators differ in their classification of food insecurity prevalence in a population sample and also examines the relationship between various demographic and household factors and food security status.Findings>According to the EU-SILC food deprivation questions, 8.3% (n = 185) were indicated to be food insecure, while according to the HFSSM, 6.5% (n = 146) were indicated to be food insecure. The HFSSM and EU-SILC regression models differed in the underlying variables they identified as significant predictors of food insecurity. Significant variables common to both modules were tenure, employment status, health status, anxiety/depression and receipt of benefits.Originality/value>Findings can inform policy action with regards to targeting the key contributors and can inform policy decisions in NI and elsewhere with regards to choosing the most appropriate food insecurity indicator.

16.
Indian Econ Rev ; 57(1): 133-164, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1943767

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we study the effects of the spread of COVID-19 on retail and wholesale prices of urban markets in India, as well as price distortion between markets and the mark-up between retail and wholesale prices. Using fixed-effects panel regression models, we find that with the spread of COVID-19, prices increased for commodities with longer shelf-life such as pulses and processed items, while prices of vegetables such as onions and tomatoes declined substantially at the onset of the pandemic. Further, market distortions increased significantly for most commodities. Pulses experienced large price distortions between markets as well as mark-ups between retail and wholesale prices. We, however, do not see any major price distortions in the market for rice and wheat, which are controlled by Government's minimum support prices. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41775-022-00130-3.

17.
European Review of Agricultural Economics ; 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1937664

ABSTRACT

Since the inception of the novel coronavirus, immense research efforts have been made to understand how several economic indicators, including food security, would be affected. With India racing behind the United States in terms of daily infection rate and being a country with challenging food security issues, it is important to investigate how the presence of the pandemic has influenced the dynamics of food prices in the country. This paper considers seven price series from 167 markets across the five regions in India as well as the growth rate of COVID-19 infection. The paper uses a time-varying autoregressive model to investigate the nonlinear dynamics of food prices in relation to the pandemic in India. The resultant models reveal strong asymmetric properties with shock-inflicted persistence, which appear not to converge over the simulation period. Moreover, in terms of the location of the burden of the pandemic impact, we find a food product divide.

18.
Agricultural Finance Review ; 82(4):714-731, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1922454

ABSTRACT

Purpose>This paper introduces the concept of manihah and develops a conceptual framework to address Malaysia's abandoned lands and food security issues.Design/methodology/approach>This is a conceptual paper based on insights from the existing literature and secondary data on food security, abandoned lands and manihah. Based on the prevailing gaps, the study proposes a conceptual framework of the Manihah Agricultural Financing Model to address Malaysia's abandoned land and food security issues.Findings>The proposed model can address abandoned lands and food security issues due to the new incorporation of manihah within Malaysia's agricultural and Islamic financial industries' milieu.Research limitations/implications>This is a conceptual paper mainly intended to spark a discussion on the potentiality of manihah.Practical implications>The paper contends that Islamic banks have a crucial role in furthering the socio-economic development agenda under the value-based intermediation (VBI). The paper will also be an excellent introduction to Islamic bank practitioners in understanding manihah's relevance to their daily operation.Originality/value>This paper introduces manihah as the potential solution to food security issues by utilizing abandoned lands.

19.
Circular Tecnica - Embrapa Gado de Leite 2021. (126):24 pp. ; 2021.
Article in Portuguese | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-1918943

ABSTRACT

Embrapa Gado de Leite/Centro de Inteligencia do Leite carried out a survey to assess the behaviour of Brazilian consumers of milk and dairy products during the Covid-19 pandemic, considering household consumption. It was shown that long-life milk was not the most important dairy product in the Brazilian shopping basket. Despite being present in more than 90% of Brazilian homes, other dairy products, especially cheeses, are gaining consumer preference. Data from market consultants showed that this sales channel had the highest growth during the first months of the pandemic. The majority of survey respondents said they maintained or even increased the consumption of dairy products. Data from consulting market confirmed the survey results, reporting increases in sale of dairy products during the first half of 2020. The survey results also showed consumption patterns by income classes and regions of Brazil, showing the complexity of the national dairy market. In the case of income, the higher percentage of consumption stability in the lower income classes was high. Regarding the most important factor at the time of purchase of dairy products, the price was more considered by the higher income classes, and low prices and the brand by higher-income consumers. In the case of regions, differences were also evidenced in the maintenance of consumption of products, with powdered milk having a higher percentage of stability in the northeast and north, as well as the importance of price and brand in the purchase decision, in which the price prevailed more in the northeast than in other regions. In conclusion, income, rather than price, is the determining factor of dairy consumption in Brazil.

20.
Economic Research Report - Economic Research Service, USDA 2022. (306):iv + 27 pp. many ref. ; 2022.
Article in English | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-1918611

ABSTRACT

While the U.S. food system has been largely able to maintain operations and provide consumers with the variety of foods they desire since the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic began, U.S. households faced sharply higher food prices for many staple items, especially meat in 2020. In this study, U.S. households' meat purchases at retail stores for at-home consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic are examined and compared with those before the virus outbreak.

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