Sweeteners World Trade and Behaviour in the Pandemic. Evidence from Honey Remedies Nexus Mountain Apis Mellifera Product.

The paper proposes a construct for sweeteners (SMH-sugar, molasses, and honey class) consumer behavior, focusing on the mountain Apis Mellifera healing effects and its market. The paper develops three research dimensions, respectively, the importance of the healing properties of SMH products, the consumer behavior of SMH clients, and the world trade of SMH. Apis Mellifera product is considered one of the primary natural prevention and treatment for COVID-19. Presented empirical and experimental studies, respectively, qualitative analysis for Apis Mellifera product, reveal that honey, especially dark honey, presents healing effects. People understand the healing effects of honey in the COVID-19 context, and consequently, honey consumption increased. The forecasting model of the export value, for the 2021-2040 period, takes into consideration the descriptive statistics analysis based on 2001-2020 data. The paper contains relevant data about the SMH class related to statistics of the World Bank, United Nations, Eurostat, International Trade Center, and other sources presented in the paper. Data have been processed into SPSS and Excel, according to ANOVA (descriptive statistics with a focus on frequency analysis) and forecasting analysis. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12355-023-01243-6.

Capital issuances and premium growth in the property-liability insurance industry: evidence from the financial crisis and COVID-19 recession.

The COVID-19-driven stock market crash in early 2020, as well as the recession following the financial crisis, generated sizeable operating losses for property-liability insurance companies. However, property-liability insurers were able to hold their capitalisation levels relatively stable during both recessions, issuing new capital and reducing dividends. We use these two recent recessions to empirically examine the determinants and consequences of capital issuances by property-liability insurance companies. We find that property-liability insurers raise capital to restore depleted levels due to operating losses and to fund business growth, and these determinants do not change during recessions. We further examine whether capitalisation levels constrain insurers' ability to meet demand during recessions and find no evidence this occurs. We rather find that new capital is associated with premium growth in subsequent time periods. There seem to be fewer frictions affecting property-liability insurers to recapitalise and accommodate demand compared to other financial services firms. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1057/s41288-022-00283-5.

Financial Market Sentiment and Stock Return during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Using 1,287,932 pieces of textual data from news media, we measure the financial market sentiment worldwide. We conduct the first international study of the effect of the financial market sentiment on stock return during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results show that the intensification of the epidemic adversely affects the stock market, but the increasing financial market sentiment increases the stock market return, even during the worst of the pandemic. Our results remain robust using alternative proxies. Additional analysis suggests that negative sentiment has a more significant impact on stock market returns compared with positive sentiment. Taken together, our findings confirm that negative financial market sentiment amplifies the impact of the crisis event on the stock market, and positive financial market sentiment can help mitigate the losses caused by the shock.

Research on the investment value of China's medical sector in the context of COVID-19

COVID-19 has slowed the growth of, the global economy, which has certain practical significance. Consequently, this study seeks to analyze the investment opportunities in the medical sector before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. In this study, the Markowitz mean–variance (MV) model, capital asset pricing model (CAPM), and correlation models are constructed based on the principle of Markowitz MV and correlation analysis. Simultaneously, statistical analysis is used to verify the analysis, and the MATLAB statistical tool is used to build the model. The results show that the actual expected yield of China's medical sector is significantly higher than that calculated by the CAPM before and after the pandemic, and that the investment value of the medical sector is undervalued by the market. From the perspective of risk, China's medical sector has a stable systemic risk premium. Based on the above analysis, when building investment portfolios in the post-pandemic era, investors should appropriately allocate stocks in the medical and pharmaceutical sectors to improve the portfolio income and diversify the investment risk. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Are government bonds still safe havens in the context of COVID-19?

This study analyzes whether government bonds can act as safe havens in the context of COVID-19. Using a panel fixed effect model, data were collected for both advanced and emerging market economies from March 11, 2020, to June 30, 2021. Robustness tests were used to add to the credibility of the findings. Our evidence supports that government bonds maintained their safe haven status during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hence, investors can still use government bonds to hedge financial market risks in the uncertain environment associated with this pandemic. Additionally, the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on government bond yields in emerging economies are larger than in advanced economies. Therefore, policymakers' measures should focus on reducing COVID-19 cases to alleviate panic and diminish economic fluctuations, especially for emerging economies. Regulators can also use short-term interest rates to guide market capital flow to avoid a liquidity crisis, reducing financial stress and market uncertainty. © 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

COVID-19 and stock market performance: Evidence from the RCEP countries

As the world's largest trading bloc, the agreement of RCEP, which was formalized in September 2020, is believed to play a non-neglectable role in the post-pandemic recovery. Real economies and the capital markets of the participating countries will have greater interactions due to tariff reduction and negative lists. By looking into the shocks in early 2020 that affect the stock markets of RCEP participating countries, we measure the stock market reaction to common risks just before the RCEP agreement was formalized. Following return-based, volume-based and liquidity-based event-study approaches, we use daily data from 11 Asia-Pacific countries to examine the stock market reactions. We find that RCEP economies for which the agreement took effect on January 1st, 2022 showed better risk resistance in response to COVID-19 shocks. In the long run, trading benefits brought by the RCEP agreement are expected to form and strengthen a system of circular flow of international trading activities among the participating countries, which will in turn increase the risk resistance ability of their stock markets. © 2022 Elsevier Inc.

Futures hedging in crude oil markets: A trade-off between risk and return

Risk and return are two fundamentals that have an impact on an investor's or hedger's investing choices. Based on the proposed synchronous movement intensity index, this paper aims to improve the hedging performance by adjusting the model-driven hedge ratio and realize the trade-off between return and risk in futures hedging. First, without loss of generality, we forecast crude oil spot and futures volatility using 10 GARCH-type models, including three linear models and seven nonlinear models, to obtain the ex-ante hedging ratio under the minimum variance framework. Then, we develop a novel and tractable method to identify the market state based on the index of consistency intensity, in which the index portrays the synchronous degree of stock price movements in the energy sector. Last but not least, we propose the hedge ratio adjustment criteria based on the identified state, and adjust the ratio driven by GARCH-type models of futures in accordance with the market state. Empirical results of crude oil futures markets indicate that the proposed state-dependent hedging model is superior to the commonly used models in terms of three criteria including mean of returns, variance, and ratio of mean to variance of returns for measuring hedging effect. We apply the DM test to make a statistical inference and discover that while the mean and the ratio of mean to variance of returns are increasing, the variance and hedging effectiveness of the hedged portfolio based on the modified methods are not significantly affected. Furthermore, the superiority of the proposed method is robust to different market conditions, including significant rising or falling trends, large basis, and COVID-19 pandemic. We also test the robustness of the proposed method with respect to the baseline model, quantile, and evaluation window. Overall, this paper provides a more realistic approach for crude oil risk managers to hedge crude oil price risk, some corresponding implications are also concluded. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd

COVID-19 effects on the S&P 500 index

This paper investigates the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the US on the S&P 500 Index using daily data covering the period between 21st January, 2020 and 10th August, 2021. The investigation is achieved by using a structural vector autoregression model, where a measure of the global economic activity and the spread between 10-year treasury constant maturity and the federal funds rate are also included. The empirical results suggest that having (Formula presented.) of an increase in cumulative daily COVID-19 cases in the US results in about (Formula presented.) of a cumulative reduction in the S&P 500 Index after 1 day and about (Formula presented.) of a reduction after 1 week. Historical decomposition of the S&P 500 Index further suggests that the negative effects of COVID-19 cases in the US on the S&P 500 Index have been mostly observed during March 2020. © 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

COVID-19 moderates the association between to-metro and by-metro accessibility and house prices

Previous studies extensively examined the role of accessibility to metro in shaping house prices but largely overlooked the contribution of accessibility by metro. In addition, limited studies examined the moderating effect of COVID-19 on the price effects of to-metro and by-metro accessibility. Based on multilevel hedonic price and quantile regression models, this study scrutinizes the association between to-metro accessibility, by-metro accessibility, and house prices in Chengdu, China, and examines the moderating role of COVID-19 in this association. We show that by-metro accessibility significantly influences house prices. COVID-19 significantly influences the value of to-metro accessibility but marginally affects that of by-metro accessibility. The value of to-metro accessibility is disproportionately affected by the pandemic. Specifically, small or low-priced houses are less affected than big or high-priced houses. In other words, the flattening of the to-metro price gradient is more discernible for big or high-priced houses. The changing preference of residents has also been verified by the decreases in house transaction volume in metro-adjacent areas. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd

Dynamic connectedness of green bond with financial markets of European countries under OECD economies

This paper examines the dynamic connectedness between green bonds and OECD financial markets of European countries. The study is conducted on daily price of green bonds and selected European stock markets from January 27, 2015, to August 4, 2021. Top ten European countries namely Luxembourg, Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Iceland, Austria, Sweden, and Belgium are included within the OECD economies. The study uses Diebold and Yilmaz and Barunik & Krehlic tests to examine the connectedness between the economies and green bonds in short, medium, and long term. Result exhibits volatility across all frequency cycles. Brussel Stock Exchange and Euronext Amsterdam are identified as high-risk markets in the OECD European market. Evidence emerging from this study advocate the inclusion of green bonds in these financial markets for shorter time periods only. Results from this study are expected to have practical implications for portfolio managers, investors, and market regulators, suggesting incorporation of green bonds in investor portfolio for efficient diversification of risk. © 2022, The Author(s).

Limited investor attention and biased reactions to information: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic

We find that the COVID-19 pandemic increases (decreases) stock return sensitivity to market -wide (firm-specific) news, which is associated with return reversals (delayed reactions). These results are consistent with limited investor attention and investors paying heightened (reduced) attention to macro (micro) information after the outbreak. There are more biased reactions when the epidemic spread is higher, to good news than bad news, for firms headquartered in pandemic epicenters, and for larger stocks. We also find higher (lower) imbalanced trading, information flow, and price efficiency associated with market-wide (firm-specific) news during the pandemic.

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Factors Influencing the Destination Choice of International Visitors to Vietnam

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is an attractive tourist destination with diverse and unique experiences, in which Vietnam is considered one of the most famous destinations in this region. Quality evaluations and strategies for attracting international tourists are being thoroughly researched. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has had the most significant impact on the tourism industry, which has suffered greatly. Therefore, the recovery and expansion of international tourism necessitate the employment of tourism-related businesses and service sector workers. Extensive research must be conducted to identify solutions and new directions to recover the international tourist market's growth as quickly as possible. This study identifies the factors that influence the destination of international visitors visiting Vietnam after the COVID-19 pandemic by modifying and evaluating the scales of the theoretical model. Using the convenience sampling technique, data were collected through interviews with 208 international visitors, with 29 observed variables. Using SPSS 22.0, five factors influencing international visitors' decisions to visit Vietnam were revealed: tourist motivation, tourist attitude, destination image, social media, and environmental quality. Finally, the authors provide policy recommendations to enhance the allure and viability of Vietnam's tourism following the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study's outcome is intended to establish the importance of the many variables influencing the choice of destination for international visitors. © 2022 by the authors.

Restoring hope and optimism through staycation programs: an application of psychological capital theory

This study marks an early attempt to evaluate staycation incentive programs initiated by local authorities. It aims to gauge the effectiveness of staycation programs in cultivating learning opportunities and restorative benefits with an emphasis on temporal positive psychological outcomes amid this continuing pandemic. Relying on a survey-based research design, we conducted a survey with 409 local tourists in Macau, where a recent staycation initiative has attained prominent success. We then undertook the structural equation modeling test using AMOS. Results show how short local excursions could still fortify one's psychological capital with respect to ephemeral improvement in hope, confidence, optimism, and resilience in the face of extenuating circumstances. By synthesizing a path leading from COVID-related distress to fortification of a more prepared mental state for the new normal through the staycation's experiential benefits, this study thus puts forth a mechanism that explains why tourists/residents engage in staycation programs, as well as illuminating the psychological values associated with such activities. By answering these questions, this research improvises a three-stage process that identifies pre-trip, during-trip, and post-trip mental encounters that improve participants' psychological capabilities, even if only temporarily. The present inquiry sheds light on a new form of sustainability: mental (or psychological) sustainability. © 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Connectedness among El Niño-Southern Oscillation, carbon emission allowance, crude oil and renewable energy stock markets: Time- and frequency-domain evidence based on TVP-VAR model

Understanding the interactions among climate change, carbon emission allowance trading, crude oil and renewable energy stock markets, especially the role of climate change in this system is of great significance for policy makers, energy producers/consumers and relevant investors. The present paper aims to quantify the time-varying connectedness effects among the four factors by using the TVP-VAR based extensions of both time- and frequency-domain connectedness index measurements proposed by Antonakakis et al. (2020) and Ellington and Barunik (2021) [8,48]. The empirical results suggest that, firstly, the average total connectedness among climate change, carbon emission allowance trading, crude oil and renewable energy stock markets is not so strong for the heterogenous fundamentals underlying them. Nevertheless, the time-varying total connectedness fluctuates fiercely through May 2005 to September 2021, varying from about 8% to 30% and rocket to very high levels during the global subprime mortgage crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the total connectedness mainly centers on the short-term frequency, i.e., 1–3 months. Secondly, climate change is generally the leading information contributor among the four factors, although not particularly strong, and its leading role also performs mainly on the short-term frequency (1–3 months). Thirdly, renewable energy stock market and crude oil market show tight interactions between them and they are the two major bridges of information exchanges across various time frequencies (horizons) in this system. Finally, we confirm the evidence that the primary net connectedness contributor and receiver switch frequently across different time frequencies, implying that it is extremely essential for policy makers, energy producers/consumers and investors to make time-horizon-specific regulatory, production/purchasing or investment decisions when facing the uncertain effects of climate change on the interactions among carbon emission allowance, crude oil and renewable energy stock markets. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd

Do emerging art market segments have their own price dynamics? Evidence from the Chinese art market

This study examines the nonlinear dynamics in the price series of Chinese art market segments between 2000 and 2019. We employ a hedonic price model to construct price indices of Chinese art market segments and analyze the nonlinearities and regime-switching properties of the individual segment using a series of Markov switching model specifications. We argue that occasional shocks would only temporarily alter their data-generating processes and have transitory effects. Moreover, we investigate the impact of COVID-19 on Chinese art market segments. Our findings have implications for market participants in identifying the price characteristics and dynamic behavior of art market segments. © 2022 The Author

Stock markets' reaction to COVID-19: the joint impact of uncertainty avoidance culture and government response–evidence from emerging countries

Purpose: The authors examine whether the uncertainty avoidance culture and the stringency of government response play a role in shaping the stock market's response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The authors find that investors' response to the pandemic will not only depend on their instinct of uncertainty aversion but also on their expectation about the effectiveness of the government measures. The uncertainty avoidance culture amplifies the irrational actions of investors. However, harsh government responses will weaken this effect. Harsh government responses also send a negative signal to the market about the extent of the pandemic and the economic damage caused by anti-COVID measures. Governments need to be balanced in imposing anti-COVID measurements to preserve market confidence. Design/methodology/approach: In this article, the authors investigate whether the stock market volatility of emerging countries is simultaneously driven by two factors: the uncertainty-aversion culture of investors in a country and the stringency of the government's response to the pandemic. The authors conduct an empirical study on a sample of 20 emerging countries during the period from January 2020 to March 2021. Findings: The authors find that the national-level uncertainty aversion amplifies the irrational actions of investors during the period of crisis. However, harsh government responses will weaken this effect. The authors' findings show evidence that investors' response to the pandemic will not only depend on their instinct of uncertainty aversion but also on their expectation about the effectiveness of the government measures. Although harsh government responses can stabilize the investors' sentiment in countries with high levels of uncertainty aversion, they also send a negative signal to the market about the extent of the pandemic as well as the economic damage caused by anti-COVID measures. Originality/value: First, the study's results complement evidence from existing studies on the effect of uncertainty avoidance culture in determining stock market responses to COVID-19. Second, an important difference from previous studies, this paper adds to the behavioral finance literature by showing that investors' investment decisions in the face of economic uncertainty are not driven solely by their cultural values but also by their expectation about the effectiveness of the government policy. During a crisis, when the market has neither rational information nor adequate experience to forecast the future, the government must play an important role in stabilizing investors' sentiment and reactions. © 2021, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Overview of the Market of Electric Cars by Multilogistic Curves

Sigmoid functions (growth function, logistic function, evolution function, etc.) are used to describe, study and forecast several phenomena of the life. In some cases (for example, in case of the COVID-19 disease), the phenomenon has several waves, which needs to apply multilogistic (multiwave logistic) curves in order to perform realistic investigation. In product design, the logistic curve can describe the lifecycle of a product. A product lifecycle can be finished by the significant decrease of the market, but in some cases, several new developments and innovations can regenerate the increase of the market by starting a new boom. This renewing process can invoke several waves of the phenomenon, which will make necessary the application of multilogistic curves for the correct study. This multiwave behaviour of the product lifecycle makes this phenomenon very similar to the time history of the COVID-19 disease which also has several waves, because of the newer and newer virus variants. Analysis and comparison of several phenomena described by logistic curves, or bi- logistic, tri- logistic or multilogistic curves can be made easier by the application of the EBSYQ (Evolutionary Based SYstem of Qualification and comparison of group achievements) comparison and qualification system. The similarity between the multiwave characteristics of the product lifecycle and coronavirus time history makes possible to apply several results, skills and methods of comparison and investigation, which were developed and used previously during the analysis of several waves of the disease also for the case of product lifecycle analysis. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Investor sentiment based on scaled PCA method: A powerful predictor of realized volatility in the Chinese stock market

In this study, we construct an investor sentiment indicator (SsPCA) to predict stock volatility in the Chinese stock market by applying the scaled principal component analysis (sPCA). As a new dimension reduction technique for supervised learning, sPCA is employed to extract useful information from six individual sentiment proxies and obtain the common variations to characterize the investor sentiment (SsPCA). The empirical results indicate that SsPCA is a significant and powerful volatility predictor both in and out of sample. We also employ the partial least squares (PLS)-based investor sentiment index, three extra sentiment measures in past studies, and six individual sentiment proxies for comparison, and find SsPCA outperforms them on predicting stock volatility in the Chinese stock market. More importantly, the predictability of SsPCA remains significant before and after the famous financial crises (the sub-prime mortgage crisis and Chinese stock market turbulence) and the spread of the pandemic (COVID-19). Additionally, our findings imply that SsPCA still plays an essential role in predicting sock volatility after considering the leverage effect. The robustness of SsPCA in volatility forecasting is further verified in various industry indices of the Chinese stock market. Finally, we state that the strong predictability of SsPCA is highly related to its dimensionality reduction. Our results indicate that SsPCA is a robust volatility predictor from various aspects and performs better compared with existing sentiment indicators. © 2022 Elsevier Inc.

Endogenous consumption driving and sustainability of macroeconomic development in post-coronavirus China

The outbreak of Covid-19 has generated a significant impact on China's national economies. In Post-Coronavirus China, the macro-economic development situation must be undergone new and substantial changes with a trend from a production-driven economy to a consumption-driven economy. With the proposal of China's strategy of expanding domestic demand, endogenous consumption has become the main driving force of current economic growth. With the transformation and upgrading of the consumption structure and the continuous promotion of structural reforms on the supply side, the essential role of consumption in economic development will be more sustainable. The new model for China's economic and social development is to cultivate new consumer markets, continuously increase people's income level and consumption capacity, and accelerate the construction and growth of crucial consumptions. It should become a new and long-term policy for China's macro-economic development. © 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.