Economic forecasting with an agent-based model

We develop the first agent-based model (ABM) that can compete with benchmark VAR and DSGE models in out-of-sample forecasting of macro variables. Our ABM for a small open economy uses micro and macro data from national accounts, sector accounts, input–output tables, government statistics, and census and business demography data. The model incorporates all economic activities as classified by the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010) and includes all economic sectors populated with millions of heterogeneous agents. In addition to being a competitive model framework for forecasts of aggregate variables, the detailed structure of the ABM allows for a breakdown into sector-level forecasts. Using this detailed structure, we demonstrate the ABM by forecasting the medium-run macroeconomic effects of lockdown measures taken in Austria to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Potential applications of the model include stress-testing and predicting the effects of monetary or fiscal macroeconomic policies. © 2022 The Author(s)

Quantifying the probability of a recession in selected Central and Eastern European countries

The COVID-19 pandemic simultaneously affected most economic sectors and has already caused severe worldwide social and economic damage. In response, authorities introduced social distancing measures, with an adverse impact on economic activity. If policymakers were aware of the existing vulnerabilities, including those derived from the positioning on the business cycle, resilience could have been increased. The aim of this article is to describe various methods of dating business cycles in several Central and Eastern European (C.E.E.) countries, namely Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Romania. Furthermore, a Probit model regarding the probability of a recession is estimated, confirming the adverse effects of the pandemic, in contrast with a brightening outlook given vaccination campaigns and the E.U. recovery package. However, in case of the Romanian economy, an in-sample estimation showed a high probability of negative growth rates even in a pre-pandemic world, due to the high macroeconomic imbalances. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Consumption, identity, and surveillance during COVID-19 as a crisis of pleasure

The global COVID-19 pandemic was the latest instance of a crisis of pleasure. Crises of pleasure are periodic eruptions of discontent when consumption is disrupted by external forces. In this case, the pandemic also disrupted expressions of identity on social media, where identity is made legible through conspicuous consumption on social media in the early 2020s. Drawing from six qualitative focus group interviews conducted in the summer of 2020, we analyze how social media users interpret the accounts they follow posting content that seemingly violates social distancing guidelines during COVID-19. We find that consumption during the pandemic was highly contested and surveilled, with participants describing the disciplining power of social media and their use of news and public health guidelines to inform their identities. Both trends illustrate how surveilled modes of consumption characterize the post-lockdown consumption reality, which is polarized and partisan leading towards hedonist and puritanical models.

The Economic Impact of the SARS Epidemic with Related Interventions in China.

Epidemics represent a threat to human life and economy. Meanwhile, medical and non-medical approaches to fight against them may result in additional economic shocks. In this paper, we examine the economic impact of the 2003 SARS outbreak in China and associated government policies. Although the epidemic caused a substantial economic loss in the short term, the interventions for medical purposes positively impacted the economy of the severely affected regions through the increase in investments such as other fiscal stimuli. There is strong and robust evidence suggesting that the SARS epidemic and its associated countermeasure policies boosted local output by around 4% and industrial production by around 5%. The positive growth was mainly derived from the increase in investment and government activity, especially government expenditure. Besides that, lagged impacts were particularly pronounced to the economic system and lasted for longer even than the epidemic period in a biological sense. We attribute this to the relatively aggressive stance of policymakers in the face of the epidemic situation.