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1.
Indian J Crit Care Med ; 26(4): 464-471, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1869983

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Various mortality predictive score models for coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) have been deliberated. We studied how sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), and new early warning signs (NEWS-2) scores estimate mortality in COVID-19 patients. Materials and methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 53 patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19. We calculated qSOFA, SOFA, APACHE II, and NEWS-2 on initial admission and re-evaluated on day 5. We performed logistic regression analysis to differentiate the predictors of qSOFA, SOFA, APACHE II, and NEWS-2 scores on mortality. Result: qSOFA, SOFA, APACHE II, and NEWS-2 scores on day 5 exhibited a difference between survivors and nonsurvivors (p <0.05), also between ICU and non-ICU admission (p <0.05). The initial NEWS-2 revealed a higher AUC value than the qSOFA, APACHE II, and SOFA score in estimating mortality (0.867; 0.83; 0.822; 0.794). In ICU, APACHE II score revealed a higher AUC value than the SOFA, NEWS-2, and qSOFA score (0.853; 0.832; 0.813; 0.809). Concurrently, evaluation on day 5 showed that qSOFA AUC had higher scores than the NEWS-2, APACHE II, and SOFA (0.979; 0.965; 0.939; 0.933) in predicting mortality, while SOFA and APACHE II AUC were higher in ICU admission than NEWS-2 and qSOFA (0.968; 0.964; 0.939; 0.934). According to the cutoff score, APACHE II on day 5 revealed the highest sensitivity and specificity in predicting the mortality (sensitivity 95.7%, specificity 86.7%). Conclusion: All scores signify good predictive values on COVID-19 patients mortality following the evaluation on the day 5. Nonetheless, APACHE-II appears to be the best at predicting mortality and ICU admission rate. How to cite this article: Asmarawati TP, Suryantoro SD, Rosyid AN, Marfiani E, Windradi C, Mahdi BA, et al. Predictive Value of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, and New Early Warning Signs Scores Estimate Mortality of COVID-19 Patients Requiring Intensive Care Unit. Indian J Crit Care Med 2022;26(4):464-471.

2.
Microorganisms ; 10(4)2022 Apr 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1785832

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Since 2019, the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is causing a rapidly spreading pandemic. The present study aims to compare a modified quick SOFA (MqSOFA) score with the NEWS-2 score to predict in-hospital mortality (IHM), 30-days mortality and recovery setting. METHODS: All patients admitted from March to October 2020 to the Emergency Department of St. Anna Hospital, Ferrara, Italy with clinically suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection were retrospectively included in this single-centre study and evaluated with the MqSOFA and NEWS-2 scores. Statistical and logistic regression analyses were applied to our database. RESULTS: A total of 3359 individual records were retrieved. Among them, 2716 patients were excluded because of a negative nasopharyngeal swab and 206 for lacking data; thus, 437 patients were eligible. The data showed that the MqSOFA and NEWS-2 scores equally predicted IHM (p < 0.001) and 30-days mortality (p < 0.001). Higher incidences of coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, cerebrovascular accidents, dementia, chronic kidney disease and cancer were found in the deceased vs. survived group. CONCLUSIONS: In this study we confirmed that the MqSOFA score was non-inferior to the NEWS-2 score in predicting IHM and 30-days mortality. Furthermore, the MqSOFA score was easier to use than NEWS-2 and is more suitable for emergency settings. Neither the NEWS-2 nor the MqSOFA scores were able to predict the recovery setting.

3.
J Clin Med ; 11(3)2022 Feb 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1674686

ABSTRACT

A continuous demand for assistance and an overcrowded emergency department (ED) require early and safe discharge of low-risk severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-infected patients. We developed (n = 128) and validated (n = 330) the acute PNeumonia early assessment (aPNea) score in a tertiary hospital and preliminarily tested the score on an external secondary hospital (n = 97). The score's performance was compared to that of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2). The composite outcome of either death or oral intubation within 30 days from admission occurred in 101 and 28 patients in the two hospitals, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of the aPNea model was 0.86 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.78-0.93) and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.73-0.89) for the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The aPNea score discriminated low-risk patients better than NEWS2 at a 10% outcome probability, corresponding to five cut-off points and one cut-off point, respectively. aPNea's cut-off reduced the number of unnecessary hospitalizations without missing outcomes by 27% (95% CI, 9-41) in the validation cohort. NEWS2 was not significant. In the external cohort, aPNea's cut-off had 93% sensitivity (95% CI, 83-102) and a 94% negative predictive value (95% CI, 87-102). In conclusion, the aPNea score appears to be appropriate for discharging low-risk SARS-CoV-2-infected patients from the ED.

4.
Nurs Crit Care ; 2021 Dec 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1566312

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread globally and caused a major worldwide health crisis. Patients who are affected more seriously by COVID-19 usually deteriorate rapidly and need further intensive care. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) as a risk stratification tool to discriminate newly admitted patients with COVID-19 at risk of serious events. DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective single-centre case-control study on 200 unselected patients consecutively admitted in March 2020 in a public general hospital in Wuhan, China. METHODS: The following serious events were considered: mortality, unplanned intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and non-invasive ventilation treatment. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and logistic regression analysis were used to quantify the association between outcomes and NEWS2. RESULTS: There were 12 patients (6.0%) who had serious events, where 7 patients (3.5%) experienced unplanned ICU admissions. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) and cut-off of NEWS2 for the composite outcome were 0.83 and 3, respectively. For patients with NEWS2 ≥ 4, the odds of being at risk for serious events was 16.4 (AUROC = 0.74), while for patients with NEWS2 ≥ 7, the odds of being at risk for serious events was 18.2 (AUROC = 0.71). CONCLUSIONS: NEWS2 has an appropriate ability to triage newly admitted patients with COVID-19 into three levels of risk: low risk (NEWS2 = 0-3), medium risk (NEWS2 = 4-6), and high risk (NEWS2 ≥ 7). RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: Using NEWS2 may help nurses in early identification of at-risk COVID-19 patients and clinical nursing decision-making. Using NEWS2 to triage new patients with COVID-19 may help nurses provide more appropriate level of care and medical resources allocation for patients safety.

5.
J Med Virol ; 94(1): 272-278, 2022 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1544342

ABSTRACT

Data pertaining to risk factor analysis in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is confounded by the lack of data from an ethnically diverse population. In addition, there is a lack of data for young adults. This study was conducted to assess risk factors predicting COVID-19 severity and mortality in hospitalized young adults. A retrospective observational study was conducted at two centers from China and India on COVID-19 patients aged 20-50 years. Regression analysis to predict adverse outcomes was performed using parameters including age, sex, country of origin, hospitalization duration, comorbidities, lymphocyte count, and National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) score at admission. A total of 420 patients (172 East Asians and 248 South Asians) were included. The predictive model for intensive care unit (ICU) admission with variables NEWS2 Category II and higher, diabetes mellitus, liver dysfunction, and low lymphocyte counts had an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.930 with a sensitivity of 0.931 and a specificity of 0.784. The predictive model for mortality with NEWS2 Category III, cancer, and decreasing lymphocyte count had an AUC value of 0.883 with a sensitivity of 0.903 and a specificity of 0.701. A combined predictive model with bronchial asthma and low lymphocyte count, in contrast, had an AUC value of 0.768 with a sensitivity of 0.828 and a specificity of 0.719 for NEWS2 score (5 or above) at presentation. NEWS2 supplemented with comorbidity profile and lymphocyte count could help identify hospitalized young adults at risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/ethnology , Adult , COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/physiopathology , China , Comorbidity , Disease Progression , Early Warning Score , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , India , Intensive Care Units , Lymphocyte Count , Male , Middle Aged , Prognosis , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , Severity of Illness Index , Young Adult
6.
Front Med (Lausanne) ; 8: 699880, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1325540

ABSTRACT

Background: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) is recommended for the risk stratification of COVID-19 patients, but little is known about its ability to detect severe cases. Therefore, our purpose is to assess the prognostic accuracy of NEWS2 on predicting clinical deterioration for patients with COVID-19. Methods: We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and the Cochrane Library from December 2019 to March 2021. Clinical deterioration was defined as the need for intensive respiratory support, admission to the intensive care unit, or in-hospital death. Sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios were pooled by using the bivariate random-effects model. Overall prognostic performance was summarized by using the area under the curve (AUC). We performed subgroup analyses to assess the prognostic accuracy of NEWS2 in different conditions. Results: Eighteen studies with 6,922 participants were included. The NEWS2 of five or more was commonly used for predicting clinical deterioration. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, and AUC were 0.82, 0.67, and 0.82, respectively. Benefitting from adding a new SpO2 scoring scale for patients with hypercapnic respiratory failure, the NEWS2 showed better sensitivity (0.82 vs. 0.75) and discrimination (0.82 vs. 0.76) than the original NEWS. In addition, the NEWS2 was a sensitive method (sensitivity: 0.88) for predicting short-term deterioration within 72 h. Conclusions: The NEWS2 had moderate sensitivity and specificity in predicting the deterioration of patients with COVID-19. Our results support the use of NEWS2 monitoring as a sensitive method to initially assess COVID-19 patients at hospital admission, although it has a relatively high false-trigger rate. Our findings indicated that the development of enhanced or modified NEWS may be necessary.

7.
Biomark Med ; 15(11): 807-820, 2021 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1319562

ABSTRACT

Aim: We aimed to determine the prognostic values of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and laboratory parameters during the first week of COVID-19. Materials & methods: All adult patients who were hospitalized for confirmed COVID-19 between 11 March and 11 May 2020 were retrospectively included. Results: Overall, 611 patients were included. Our results showed that NEWS2, procalcitonin, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and albumin at D0, D3, D5 and D7 were the best predictors for clinical deterioration defined as a composite of ICU admission during hospitalization or in-hospital death. Procalcitonin had the highest odds ratio for clinical deterioration on all days. Conclusion: This study provides a list of several laboratory parameters correlated with NEWS2 and potential predictors for clinical deterioration in patients with COVID-19.


Lay abstract The COVID-19 pandemic is a grueling problem worldwide. There is a lack of knowledge about the predictive value of National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) for severe COVID-19 illness. We analyzed the prognostic value of NEWS2 and laboratory parameters during the clinical course of COVID-19. This study provides a list of several laboratory parameters correlated with NEWS2 and potential predictors for intensive care unit admission during hospitalization or in-hospital death.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/metabolism , Procalcitonin/metabolism , Albumins/metabolism , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Lymphocytes/metabolism , Neutrophils/metabolism , Odds Ratio
8.
Disaster Med Public Health Prep ; : 1-5, 2021 Jun 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1275831

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To assess ability of National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), and CRB-65 calculated at the time of intensive care unit (ICU) admission for predicting ICU mortality in patients of laboratory confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. METHODS: This prospective data analysis was based on chart reviews for laboratory confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted to ICUs over a 1-mo period. The NEWS2, CRB-65, qSOFA, and SIRS were calculated from the first recorded vital signs upon admission to ICU and assessed for predicting mortality. RESULTS: Total of 140 patients aged between 18 and 95 y were included in the analysis of whom majority were >60 y (47.8%), with evidence of pre-existing comorbidities (67.1%). The most common symptom at presentation was dyspnea (86.4%). Based upon the receiver operating characteristics area under the curve (AUC), the best discriminatory power to predict ICU mortality was for the CRB-65 (AUC: 0.720 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.630-0.811]) followed closely by NEWS2 (AUC: 0.712 [95% CI: 0.622-0.803]). Additionally, a multivariate Cox regression model showed Glasgow Coma Scale score at time of admission (P < 0.001; adjusted hazard ratio = 0.808 [95% CI: 0.715-0.911]) to be the only significant predictor of ICU mortality. CONCLUSIONS: CRB-65 and NEWS2 scores assessed at the time of ICU admission offer only a fair discriminatory value for predicting mortality. Further evaluation after adding laboratory markers such as C-reactive protein and D-dimer may yield a more useful prediction model. Much of the earlier data is from developed countries and uses scoring at time of hospital admission. This study was from a developing country, with the scores assessed at time of ICU admission, rather than the emergency department as with existing data from developed countries, for patients with moderate/severe COVID-19 disease. Because the scores showed some utility for predicting ICU mortality even when measured at time of ICU admission, their use in allocation of limited ICU resources in a developing country merits further research.

9.
Infection ; 49(5): 1033-1038, 2021 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1220597

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Clinical scores to rapidly assess the severity illness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) could be considered of help for clinicians. Recently, a specific score (named COVID-GRAM) for severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, based on a nationwide Chinese cohort, has been proposed. We routinely applied the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to predict critical COVID-19. Aim of this study is to compare NEWS2 and COVID-GRAM score. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed data of 121 COVID-19 patients admitted in two Clinics of Infectious Diseases in the Umbria region, Italy. The primary outcome was critical COVID-19 illness defined as admission to the intensive care unit, invasive ventilation, or death. Accuracy of the scores was evaluated with the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Differences between scores were confirmed used Hanley-McNeil test. RESULTS: The NEWS2 AUROC curve measured 0.87 (standard error, SE 0.03; 95% CI 0.80-0.93; p < 0.0001). The COVID-GRAM score AUROC curve measured 0.77 (SE 0.04; 95% CI 0.68-0.85; p < 0.0001). Hanley-McNeil test showed that NEWS2 better predicted severe COVID-19 (Z = 2.03). CONCLUSIONS: The NEWS2 showed superior accuracy to COVID-GRAM score for prediction of critical COVID-19 illness.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Early Warning Score , Critical Illness , Humans , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
10.
EClinicalMedicine ; 35: 100828, 2021 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1202164

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Patients admitted to hospital with Covid-19 are at risk of deterioration. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) is widely recommended, however it's validity in Covid-19 is not established and indices more specific for respiratory failure may be more appropriate. We aim to describe the physiological antecedents to deterioration, test the predictive validity of NEWS2 and compare this to the ROX index ([SpO2/FiO2]/respiratory rate). METHOD: A single centre retrospective cohort study of adult patients who were admitted to a medical ward, between 1/3/20 and 30/5/20, with positive results for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Physiological observations and the NEWS2 were extracted and analysed. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiac arrest, unplanned critical care admission or death within 24 hours. A generalized linear model was used to assess the association of physiological values, NEWS2 and ROX with the outcome. FINDINGS: The primary outcome occurred in 186 patients (26%). In the preceding 24 hours, deterioration was most marked in respiratory parameters, specifically in escalating oxygen requirement; tachypnoea was a late sign, whilst cardiovascular observations remained stable. The area under the receiver operating curve was 0.815 (95% CI 0.804-0.826) for NEWS2 and 0.848 (95% CI 0.837-0.858) for ROX. Applying the optimal level of ROX, the majority of patients triggered four hours earlier than with NEWS2 of 5. INTERPRETATION: NEWS2 may under-perform in Covid-19 due to intrinsic limitations of the design and the unique pathophysiology of the disease. A simple index utilising respiratory parameters can outperform NEWS2 in predicting the occurrence of adverse events.

11.
Front Med (Lausanne) ; 7: 624255, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1088909

ABSTRACT

Background: Early Warning Scores (EWS), including the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and Modified NEWS (NEWS-C), have been recommended for triage decision in patients with COVID-19. However, the effectiveness of these EWS in COVID-19 has not been fully validated. The study aimed to investigate the predictive value of EWS to detect clinical deterioration in patients with COVID-19. Methods: Between February 7, 2020 and February 17, 2020, patients confirmed with COVID-19 were screened for this study. The outcomes were early deterioration of respiratory function (EDRF) and need for intensive respiratory support (IRS) during the treatment process. The EDRF was defined as changes in the respiratory component of the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score at day 3 (ΔSOFAresp = SOFA resp at day 3-SOFAresp on admission), in which the positive value reflects clinical deterioration. The IRS was defined as the use of high flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy, noninvasive or invasive mechanical ventilation. The performances of EWS including NEWS, NEWS 2, NEWS-C, Modified Early Warning Scores (MEWS), Hamilton Early Warning Scores (HEWS), and quick sepsis-related organ failure assessment (qSOFA) for predicting EDRF and IRS were compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Results: A total of 116 patients were included in this study. Of them, 27 patients (23.3%) developed EDRF and 24 patients (20.7%) required IRS. Among these EWS, NEWS-C was the most accurate scoring system for predicting EDRF [AUROC 0.79 (95% CI, 0.69-0.89)] and IRS [AUROC 0.89 (95% CI, 0.82-0.96)], while NEWS 2 had the lowest accuracy in predicting EDRF [AUROC 0.59 (95% CI, 0.46-0.720)] and IRS [AUROC 0.69 (95% CI, 0.57-0.81)]. A NEWS-C ≥ 9 had a sensitivity of 59.3% and a specificity of 85.4% for predicting EDRF. For predicting IRS, a NEWS-C ≥ 9 had a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 88%. Conclusions: The NEWS-C was the most accurate scoring system among common EWS to identify patients with COVID-19 at risk for EDRF and need for IRS. The NEWS-C could be recommended as an early triage tool for patients with COVID-19.

12.
BMC Med ; 19(1): 23, 2021 01 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1067228

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) is currently recommended in the UK for the risk stratification of COVID-19 patients, but little is known about its ability to detect severe cases. We aimed to evaluate NEWS2 for the prediction of severe COVID-19 outcome and identify and validate a set of blood and physiological parameters routinely collected at hospital admission to improve upon the use of NEWS2 alone for medium-term risk stratification. METHODS: Training cohorts comprised 1276 patients admitted to King's College Hospital National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust with COVID-19 disease from 1 March to 30 April 2020. External validation cohorts included 6237 patients from five UK NHS Trusts (Guy's and St Thomas' Hospitals, University Hospitals Southampton, University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, University College London Hospitals, University Hospitals Birmingham), one hospital in Norway (Oslo University Hospital), and two hospitals in Wuhan, China (Wuhan Sixth Hospital and Taikang Tongji Hospital). The outcome was severe COVID-19 disease (transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) or death) at 14 days after hospital admission. Age, physiological measures, blood biomarkers, sex, ethnicity, and comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases) measured at hospital admission were considered in the models. RESULTS: A baseline model of 'NEWS2 + age' had poor-to-moderate discrimination for severe COVID-19 infection at 14 days (area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in training cohort = 0.700, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.680, 0.722; Brier score = 0.192, 95% CI 0.186, 0.197). A supplemented model adding eight routinely collected blood and physiological parameters (supplemental oxygen flow rate, urea, age, oxygen saturation, C-reactive protein, estimated glomerular filtration rate, neutrophil count, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio) improved discrimination (AUC = 0.735; 95% CI 0.715, 0.757), and these improvements were replicated across seven UK and non-UK sites. However, there was evidence of miscalibration with the model tending to underestimate risks in most sites. CONCLUSIONS: NEWS2 score had poor-to-moderate discrimination for medium-term COVID-19 outcome which raises questions about its use as a screening tool at hospital admission. Risk stratification was improved by including readily available blood and physiological parameters measured at hospital admission, but there was evidence of miscalibration in external sites. This highlights the need for a better understanding of the use of early warning scores for COVID.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/diagnosis , Early Warning Score , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Cohort Studies , Electronic Health Records , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Prognosis , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , State Medicine , United Kingdom/epidemiology
13.
J Transl Autoimmun ; 4: 100083, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1009707

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. The number of confirmed cases of infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19 continues to escalate with over 70 million confirmed cases and over 1.6 million confirmed deaths. Severe-to-critical COVID-19 is associated with a dysregulated host immune response to the virus, which is thought to lead to pathogenic immune dysregulation and end-organ damage. Presently few effective treatment options are available to treat COVID-19. Leronlimab is a humanized IgG4, kappa monoclonal antibody that blocks C-C chemokine receptor type 5 (CCR5). It has been shown that in patients with severe COVID-19 treatment with leronlimab reduces elevated plasma IL-6 and chemokine ligand 5 (CCL5), and normalized CD4/CD8 ratios. We administered leronlimab to 4 critically ill COVID-19 patients in intensive care. All 4 of these patients improved clinically as measured by vasopressor support, and discontinuation of hemodialysis and mechanical ventilation. Following administration of leronlimab there was a statistically significant decrease in IL-6 observed in patient A (p=0.034) from day 0-7 and patient D (p=0.027) from day 0-14. This corresponds to restoration of the immune function as measured by CD4+/CD8+ T cell ratio. Although two of the patients went on to survive the other two subsequently died of surgical complications after an initial recovery from SARS-CoV-2 infection.

15.
Br Paramed J ; 5(3): 59-65, 2020 Dec 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-954547

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) results in hypoxia in around a fifth of adult patients. Severe hypoxia in the absence of visible respiratory distress ('silent hypoxia') is increasingly recognised in these patients. There are no published data evaluating lowest recorded pre-hospital oxygen saturation or pre-hospital National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) as a predictor of outcome in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: In this retrospective service evaluation, we included adult inpatients with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 who were discharged from hospital or who died in hospital between 12 March and 28 April 2020 (n = 143). Pre-hospital and in-hospital data were extracted and analysed to explore risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality to inform local triage and emergency management. RESULTS: The lowest recorded pre-hospital oxygen saturation was an independent predictor of mortality when controlling for age, gender and history of COPD. A 1% reduction in pre-hospital oxygen saturation increased the odds of death by 13% (OR 1.13, p < 0.001). Lower pre-hospital oxygen saturation predicted mortality after adjusting for the pre-hospital NEWS2 (OR for a 1% reduction in pre-hospital oxygen saturation 1.09, p = 0.02). The pre-hospital NEWS2 was higher in those who died (Median 9; IQR 7-10; n = 24) than in those who survived to discharge (Median 6; IQR 5-8; n = 63). CONCLUSION: This service evaluation suggests that the lowest recorded pre-hospital oxygen saturation may be an independent predictor of mortality in COVID-19 patients. Lowest pre-hospital oxygen saturation should be recorded and used in the assessment of patients with suspected COVID-19 in pre-hospital and emergency department triage settings.

16.
Resusc Plus ; 4: 100042, 2020 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-885428

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 may lead to severe disease, requiring intensive care treatment and challenging the capacity of health care systems. The aim of this study was to compare the ability of commonly used scoring systems for sepsis and pneumonia to predict severe COVID-19 in the emergency department. METHODS: Prospective, observational, single centre study in a secondary/tertiary care hospital in Oslo, Norway. Patients were assessed upon hospital admission using the following scoring systems; quick Sequential Failure Assessment (qSOFA), Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome criteria (SIRS), National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), CURB-65 and Pneumonia Severity index (PSI). The ratio of arterial oxygen tension to inspiratory oxygen fraction (P/F-ratio) was also calculated. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) for each scoring system was calculated, along with sensitivity and specificity for the most commonly used cut-offs. Severe disease was defined as death or treatment in ICU within 14 days. RESULTS: 38 of 175 study participants developed severe disease, 13 (7%) died and 29 (17%) had a stay at an intensive care unit (ICU). NEWS2 displayed an AUROC of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.72-0.88), CURB-65 0.75 (0.65-0.84), PSI 0.75 (0.65-0.84), SIRS 0.70 (0.61-0.80) and qSOFA 0.70 (0.61-0.79). NEWS2 was significantly better than SIRS and qSOFA in predicating severe disease, and with a cut-off of5 points, had a sensitivity and specificity of 82% and 60%, respectively. CONCLUSION: NEWS2 predicted severe COVID-19 disease more accurately than SIRS and qSOFA, but not significantly better than CURB65 and PSI. NEWS2 may be a useful screening tool in evaluating COVID-19 patients during hospital admission. TRIAL REGISTRATION: : ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04345536. (https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04345536).

18.
Resuscitation ; 156: 84-91, 2020 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-752905

ABSTRACT

AIMS: To identify the most accurate early warning score (EWS) for predicting an adverse outcome in COVID-19 patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). METHODS: In adult consecutive patients admitted (March 1-April 15, 2020) to the ED of a major referral centre for COVID-19, we retrospectively calculated NEWS, NEWS2, NEWS-C, MEWS, qSOFA, and REMS from physiological variables measured on arrival. Sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of each EWS for predicting admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and death at 48 h and 7 days were calculated. RESULTS: We included 334 patients (119 [35.6%] females, median age 66 [54-78] years). At 7 days, the rates of ICU admission and death were 56/334 (17%) and 26/334 (7.8%), respectively. NEWS was the most accurate predictor of ICU admission within 7 days (AUROC 0.783 [95% CI, 0.735-0.826]; sensitivity 71.4 [57.8-82.7]%; NPV 93.1 [89.8-95.3]%), while REMS was the most accurate predictor of death within 7 days (AUROC 0.823 [0.778-0.863]; sensitivity 96.1 [80.4-99.9]%; NPV 99.4[96.2-99.9]%). Similar results were observed for ICU admission and death at 48 h. NEWS and REMS were as accurate as the triage system used in our ED. MEWS and qSOFA had the lowest overall accuracy for both outcomes. CONCLUSION: In our single-centre cohort of COVID-19 patients, NEWS and REMS measured on ED arrival were the most sensitive predictors of 7-day ICU admission or death. EWS could be useful to identify patients with low risk of clinical deterioration.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Intensive Care Units/statistics & numerical data , Patient Admission/statistics & numerical data , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Risk Assessment/methods , Aged , COVID-19 , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Early Warning Score , Female , Hospital Mortality/trends , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , ROC Curve , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Survival Rate/trends , Triage
19.
Scand J Trauma Resusc Emerg Med ; 28(1): 66, 2020 Jul 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-641101

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: There is a need for validated clinical risk scores to identify patients at risk of severe disease and to guide decision-making during the covid-19 pandemic. The National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) is widely used in emergency medicine, but so far, no studies have evaluated its use in patients with covid-19. We aimed to study the performance of NEWS2 and compare commonly used clinical risk stratification tools at admission to predict risk of severe disease and in-hospital mortality in patients with covid-19. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study in a public non-university general hospital in the Oslo area, Norway, including a cohort of all 66 patients hospitalised with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from the start of the pandemic; 13 who died during hospital stay and 53 who were discharged alive. Data were collected consecutively from March 9th to April 27th 2020. The main outcome was the ability of the NEWS2 score and other clinical risk scores at emergency department admission to predict severe disease and in-hospital mortality in covid-19 patients. We calculated sensitivity and specificity with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for NEWS2 scores ≥5 and ≥ 6, quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score ≥ 2, ≥2 Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) criteria, and CRB-65 score ≥ 2. Areas under the curve (AUCs) for the clinical risk scores were compared using DeLong's test. RESULTS: In total, 66 patients (mean age 67.9 years) were included. Of these, 23% developed severe disease. In-hospital mortality was 20%. Tachypnoea, hypoxemia and confusion at admission were more common in patients developing severe disease. A NEWS2 score ≥ 6 at admission predicted severe disease with 80.0% sensitivity and 84.3% specificity (Area Under the Curve (AUC) 0.822, 95% CI 0.690-0.953). NEWS2 was superior to qSOFA score ≥ 2 (AUC 0.624, 95% CI 0.446-0.810, p < 0.05) and other clinical risk scores for this purpose. CONCLUSION: NEWS2 score at hospital admission predicted severe disease and in-hospital mortality, and was superior to other widely used clinical risk scores in patients with covid-19.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Early Warning Score , Hospital Mortality , Patient Admission , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19 , Cohort Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Norway/epidemiology , Pandemics , Risk Assessment , SARS-CoV-2 , Sensitivity and Specificity , Severity of Illness Index
20.
Infect Dis (Lond) ; 52(10): 698-704, 2020 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-614100

ABSTRACT

Background: From January 2020, Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has rapidly spread all over the world. An early assessment of illness severity is important for the stratification of patients. We analysed the predictive value of National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) for intensive care unit admission (ICU) in patients with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome- Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.Methods: Data of 71 patients with SARS-CoV-2 admitted from 1 March to 20 April 2020, to the Clinic of Infectious Diseases of Perugia Hospital, Italy, were retrospectively reviewed. NEWS2 at hospital admission, demographic, comorbidity and clinical data were collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to establish the correlation between each variable and ICU admission.Results: Among 68 patients included in the analysis, 27 were admitted to ICU. NEWS2 at hospital admission was a good predictor of ICU admission as shown by an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis of 0.90 (standard error 0.04; 95% confidence interval 0.82-0.97). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, NEWS2 was significantly related to ICU admission using thresholds of 5 and 7. No other clinical variables included in the model were significantly correlated with ICU admission.A NEWS2 threshold of 5 had higher sensitivity than a threshold of 7 (89% and 63%). Higher specificity, positive likelihood ratio and positive predictive value were found using a threshold of 7 than a threshold of 5.Conclusions: NEWS2 at hospital admission was a good predictor for ICU admission. Patients with severe COVID-19 were correctly and rapidly stratified.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Critical Care/methods , Intensive Care Units , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Adult , Aged , COVID-19 , Cohort Studies , Comorbidity , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology , Dyslipidemias/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Hypertension/epidemiology , Likelihood Functions , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Predictive Value of Tests , Prognosis , Prospective Studies , ROC Curve , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Sensitivity and Specificity , Severity of Illness Index
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