ABSTRACT
The governance indicators of any country may reflect how safe is it to invest in its markets. The question is whether these indicators are being considered by foreign investors in the stock markets. A quantitative approach was used in this study to answer this question and explore how governance indicators can affect the size of the foreign ownership in the stock markets of the Middle East. The study covered the period from 2010 to 2019 excluding the time of financial crisis and the time of COVID-19. The collected data were analyzed using ordinary least squares method. Study results revealed that foreign investors in the stock markets of the Middle East do not consider governance indicators when taking their investment decisions because the foreign ownership in the equity markets was not affected by the governance indicators even when testing each country and each indicator individually.
ABSTRACT
This paper focuses on the three industries that are greatly impacted by COVID-19, including the consumption industry, the pharmaceutical industry, and the financial industry. The daily returns of 98 stocks in the consumption industry, the pharmaceutical industry, and the financial industry in the 100 trading days from January 2, 2020, to June 3, 2020, are selected. Based on the random matrix theory, it first analyzes whether the stock market conforms to the efficient market hypothesis during the epidemic period, and second it further studies the linkage between the three industries. The results show that (1) the correlation coefficient is approximately a normal distribution, but the mean value is greater than 0, which is greater than that of the more mature markets such as the United States. (2) There are three eigenvalues greater than the prediction value, of which the maximum eigenvalue is about 11.18 times larger than the largest eigenvalue of the RMT. (3) There is a significant positive relationship between the maximum eigenvalue and the correlation coefficient. The specific market performance is that the stock price fluctuations show a high degree of consistency. (4) In the sample interval, the financial industry has a restraining effect on the consumption industry in the short term, and the pharmaceutical industry has a promoting and then restraining effect on the consumption industry in the short term. The consumption industry has a promoting effect on the financial industry in the short term, and the pharmaceutical industry has a promoting and then restraining effect on the financial industry in the short term. The consumption industry has a promoting and then restraining effect on the pharmaceutical industry in the short term, and the financial industry has a promoting and then restraining effect on the pharmaceutical industry in the short term. (5) In the sample interval, the consumption industry is mainly affected by itself, while the role of the pharmaceutical industry and the financial industry is very small. The pharmaceutical industry is mainly affected by itself and the consumption industry, while the role of the financial industry is very small. The financial industry is mainly affected by itself and the consumption industry, while the role of the pharmaceutical industry is very small. This situation has consequences for individual investors and institutional investors, since some stock returns can be expected, creating opportunities for arbitrage and for abnormal returns, contrary to the assumptions of random walk and information efficiency. The research on the correlation between asset returns will help to accurately price assets and avoid losses caused by price fluctuations during the epidemic.
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic, the health protection measures, and the policies meant to limit the economic effects of the disease have affected the world's economies on multiple levels, the international trade being one of the most seriously influenced domains. The paper1 aims to highlight the effects of the pandemic on Romania's current account, as well as some directions of action aimed at improving the external deficit of our country. The methodology used in the article joins the empirical analysis of statistical data and their interpretation, with the identification of causalities. The analysis shows that the uncertainty regarding the evolution of COVID-19 and the measures adopted by the authorities to stop the spread of the coronavirus affected negatively, especially in 2020, the current account, and its way of financing. The paper highlights some elements that can hamper the decrease of the external deficit in the future (the large needs of external financing in the coming years, the dependence of the economy on imports, the unfavourable structure of Romanian exports and imports), as well as some directions of action intended to support the improvement of the external deficit of our country, including supporting the recovery of the economy, reducing the budget deficit, improving the domestic offer, and the research and innovation activity, etc.
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely influenced economies around the world through supply and demand channels. The increasing uncertainty and the decreasing demand due to the strict social measures of the government to cushion the spread of the pandemic have transformed COVID-19 from a health crisis into an economic crisis. To moderate the negative economic atmosphere during this period, the governments have implemented expansionary fiscal policy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impacts of the social and economic measures taken during COVID-19 on the volatility of sovereign credit default swaps for Turkey, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The empirical findings indicate that social distancing measures increase uncertainty, but health and economic policies moderate the negative impacts on the economy of Turkey, Spain, and the United Kingdom. The impact of the policies in question is greater in the high number of case regimes.
ABSTRACT
This paper develops a dynamic portfolio selection model incorporating economic uncertainty for business cycles. It is assumed that the financial market at each point in time is defined by a hidden Markov model, which is characterized by the overall equity market returns and volatility. The risk associated with investment decisions is measured by the exponential Rényi entropy criterion, which summarizes the uncertainty in portfolio returns. Assuming asset returns are projected by a regime-switching regression model on the two market risk factors, we develop an entropy-based dynamic portfolio selection model constrained with the wealth surplus being greater than or equal to the shortfall over a target and the probability of shortfall being less than or equal to a specified level. In the empirical analysis, we use the select sector ETFs to test the asset pricing model and examine the portfolio performance. Weekly financial data from 31 December 1998 to 30 December 2018 is employed for the estimation of the hidden Markov model including the asset return parameters, while the out-of-sample period from 3 January 2019 to 30 April 2022 is used for portfolio performance testing. It is found that, under both the empirical Sharpe and return to entropy ratios, the dynamic portfolio under the proposed strategy is much improved in contrast with mean variance models.
ABSTRACT
This study investigates the key macroeconomic variables determining foreign portfolio inflows (FPI) to Nigeria using the autoregressive distributed lag procedure that includes the bounds test of cointegration and error correction mechanism applied against time-series Nigerian data from 1986 through 2019. The results reveal the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between FPI and exchange rate (EXR), inflation (INF), interest rate (INT), real GDP, and Tax (TXR). Short-run errors are adjusted at a speed of 77.87% per annum, in the long-run. Causality is found to jointly-flow from the explanatory variables to FPI inflows. In all the model estimations - autoregressive, short- and long-runs, exchange rate exerted negative and significant effect on FPIR. Inflation and tax significantly affected FPI inflows to Nigeria. Growth in real GDP and interest rate positively influenced FPIR, but not significantly. The results indicate that the major determinants of FPI inflows are exchange rates, inflation, and tax.
ABSTRACT
The influence of macroeconomic variables on aspects of business and the country's economy has been a subject of robust discussion. This study was conducted to identify the effect of macroeconomic variables, namely inflation rate, economic growth, exchange rate and share price, on listed companies in South Africa. The goal was to study the long run and short run effects of macroeconomic volatility on company performance because of the world's recent pandemic experience. To achieve this objective, the study applied the panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model on annual panel data from 2010 to 2020 to analyse the short run and long run effects of macroeconomic variables on a company's performance. The study results suggested a positive impact of econom ic growth, exchange rate and share price on asset returns, whilst a company's equity return is supported by economic growth and share price in the long run. The short run revealed that none of the independent variables has a sufficiently significant effect to influence a company's performance changes in the short run. Based on the findings, it was recommended that policymakers and economic authorities should introduce and implement strategies that favour and enhance the country's economic growth and stable exchange rate in order to improve company performance. Additionally, given that the company's short-run performance may highly depend on internal factors such as corporate governance, internal policies and business strategies, these decisions should be taken with precaution and a high level of professionalism.
ABSTRACT
In 2020, Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo applied the Sustainable Development Goals as a framework and restructured its operations to focus on three programmatic efforts - Planet, People, and Culture - aligned with those goals. This article provides a case study of the Compagnia di San Paolo's path to adoption of the framework and the impact of that work using quantitative indicators. The article concludes with a comparison between Compagnia di San Paolo's approaches and some international best practices to provide a better understanding of the foundation's long-term positioning in the international context.
ABSTRACT
The objective of this study is to examine the dynamic linkages between the movement of Indian stock market sectoral indices and the three macroeconomic variables, namely, oil price, gold price and exchange rate, for the period 2016 to 2020. The data of sectoral indices was collected from Bombay Stock Exchange. The underlying series is evaluated as non-stationary at level, but stationary in the first difference, using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test. The use of the Multivariate Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model suggests that there are long-term connections between macroeconomic variables and sectoral indices, specifically in the information technology sector. Meanwhile, the analysis based on Vector Autoregression Model technique indicates that there are short-run linkages between macroeconomic variables and sectoral indices, namely, basic materials, fast moving consumer goods, finance, healthcare, information technology, auto, bankex, power, and realty. The results document that oil price, gold price and exchange rate simultaneously have a significant effect on sectoral indices in Indian stock market. To stabilize the stock market post Covid-19, the authorities are advised to put economic policies sector-wise to accelerate economic growth and to maintain fiscal discipline. They need to stabilize the above-mentioned macroeconomic variables to accelerate the economic growth as the exchange rate has a significant negative impact on all sectors.
ABSTRACT
This study investigates the tail dependence structures of sovereign credit default swaps (CDSs) and three global risk factors in BRICS countries using a copula approach, which is popular for capturing the “true” tail dependence based on the “distribution-adjusted” joint marginals. The empirical results show that global market risk sentiment comoves with sovereign CDS spreads across BRICS countries under extreme market events such as the pandemic-induced crash of 2020, with Brazil reporting the highest bilateral convergence followed by China, Russia, and South Africa. Furthermore, oil price volatility is the second biggest risk factor correlated with CDS spreads for Brazil and South Africa, while exchange rate risk exhibits very low co-dependence with CDS spreads during extreme market downturns. On the contrary, exchange rate risk is the second largest risk factor co-moving with China and Russia’s CDS spreads, while oil price volatility exhibits the lowest co-dependence with CDS in these countries. Between oil price and currency risk, evidence of single risk factor dominance is found for Russia, where exchange rate risk is largely dominant, and policymakers could promulgate financial sector regulations that mitigate spill-over risks such as targeted capital controls when markets are distressed.
ABSTRACT
Sustainable investing allocates investments based on environmental, social and governance factors (ESG). The societal value of sustainable investment is becoming progressively relevant as investors are increasingly recognizing the importance of investing in companies that seek to combat climate change, environmental destruction, while promoting corporate responsibility. Environmental policy and sustainable growth initiatives at a country-level are also being influenced by the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Situated within the current trend of declining foreign direct investment flows (FDI), our study examines the role of ESG factors in attracting FDI and enabling progress toward SDGs. We econometrically examine the linkages between ESG and FDI inflows for a sample of 161 counties. We also focus on low- and middle-income emerging economies and low- and middle-income commodity exporters as these countries face unique challenges of mobilizing financing to achieve SDGs and generating sustainable economic growth. Results suggest that FDI inflows to the full sample of countries are positively attracted by good governance in a destination country. We observe that good scores on HDI deters FDI, that higher FDI flows are associated with higher levels of carbon emissions in the case of emerging markets. Sustainability reporting attracts FDI to commodity exporting countries. The study provides possibilities for future research in a post-pandemic future.