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1.
Webology ; 19(1):2621-2641, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1964727

ABSTRACT

The relevance of digital technology to fight isolation, distribute preventive measures and assist economic systems began to build as early as the installation of the first health measures for covid 19. This study's goal is to analyze Latin America's ability to fulfill this challenge. The following are the conclusions: Latin America's digital ecosystem is at an intermediate degree of development, allowing it to somewhat alleviate the consequences of the epidemic. Also, the rural/urban contrast shows a significant amount of digital marginalization. The digital divide prevents key segments of the population from receiving health information, downloading instructional resources to improve school performance, or purchasing things online. The digital gap is compounded by the fact that most Latin American homes only use the internet for communication and social networking. A home digital resilience index (calculated on the use of the Internet to download health apps, educational apps, perform e-commerce operations and use fintech). It also suggests a lack of technology adoption, but rather a lack of technological integration in manufacturing processes, notably supply networks. The share of the workforce that can telework adds to the labor market disruption in COVID-19.

2.
Voprosy Ékonomiki ; (1)2021.
Article in Russian | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1955503

ABSTRACT

Dramas of a unique pandemic of COVID-19, an unparalleled sharp recession and critically important presidential elections have put the difficult choices for the American society in 2020. Socio-economic development of the U.S. in XXI century has come through the series of crises, which had major impacts on the global development. The country has retained the leadership in the developed world by general economic might, innovations and dynamics of upturns. In the last three decades the demographics of the U.S. population have experienced the substantial changes, notably the number of citizens of Asian origin and Hispanic group have increased. The latter has surpassed the Afro-American group by a number of families and by an average income per family. Overall growth of income in the country has not eliminated large income disparities among social strata. Statistics of tax declarations indicate the inequality by social groups and by race. These disparities have probably played an important role in 2020 recession and pandemic development. As far as electoral behavior is concerned, the inequality factor is even more visible.Alternate :Драма уникальной пандемии, небывало острой рецессии и критически важных президентских выборов поставила общество США в 2020 г. перед трудным выбором. В социально-экономическом развитии США в XXI в. произошла серия потрясений, которые оказали огромное влияние на мировое развитие. Страна сохранила положение лидера среди развитых стран по совокупности экономической мощи, инновационному развитию, динамичности подъемов. В последние три десятилетия в США значительно изменился демографический состав населения в пользу граждан азиатского происхождения и испаноязычной группы, которая как по своей численности, так и уровню доходов на семью обогнала афроамериканскую. Общий рост благосостояния не ликвидировал большие диспаритеты по доходам между слоями общества. Статистика налоговых деклараций указывает на неравенство семей как социальное, так и по расовому признаку. По-видимому, оно сыграло значительную роль в 2020 г. и в рецессии, и в пандемии. А в электоральном поведении фактор неравенства виден еще резче.

3.
Revista de Economía Mundial ; 61, 2022.
Article in Spanish | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1940061

ABSTRACT

The current pandemic crisis and the Great Recession are the most turbulent events of the XXI century. The aim of the paper is to explore and identify the pattern of response through mixes of harmful trade policy interventions during these two systemic crises.The comparative descriptive assessment focuses on two broad categories of measures, i.e. import-related and export-related harmful interventions. Some stylized facts emerged from this analysis and draw the conclusion that the two major crises have led to different responses from governments, dictated by reasons and specific needs. These patterns of response challenge the future and stability of international trading system and the behavior of companies in the global business environment. Therefore, this research provides valuable information not only for the business community, but for macro-policy makers as well La actual crisis pandémica y la Gran Recesión son los acontecimientos más turbulentos del siglo XXI. El objetivo de este documento es explorar e identificar el patrón de respuesta a través de combinaciones de intervenciones de política comercial perjudiciales durante estas dos crisis sistémicas.La evaluación descriptiva comparativa se centra en dos amplias categorías de medidas, es decir, las intervenciones perjudiciales relacionadas con las importaciones y las relacionadas con las exportaciones. De este análisis se desprenden algunos hechos estilizados y se llega a la conclusión de que las dos grandes crisis han dado lugar a respuestas diferentes por parte de los gobiernos, dictadas por razones y necesidades específicas. Estas pautas de respuesta ponen en tela de juicio el futuro y la estabilidad del sistema comercial internacional y el comportamiento de las empresas en el entorno empresarial mundial. Por lo tanto, esta investigación proporciona información valiosa no sólo para la comunidad empresarial, sino también para los responsables de la política macroeconómica

4.
Ekonomika ; 100(2):84-100, 2021.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1924753

ABSTRACT

Considering the specifics of the Russian economy such as dependency on oil, gas drilling and production, including the current context of the Western sanctions, COVID-19 pandemic as well as distinct potential output development, the main aim of this paper is to quantify the recent output gap for Russia. We use three mainstream methodologies: the Hodrick-Prescott filter as a benchmark, the Kalman filter to follow and the Cobb-Douglas production function. The sample time span ranges from 1995Q1 until 2020Q3, while all calculations are performed on quarterly frequencies. The analysis suggests that given the low fixed investment ratios, limited R&D spending in non-military sectors and adverse demographic development, under a "no policy change" scenario, there might soon be even more downward pressures on the country's potential output growth. The economy may continue increasing only at a snail's pace even after a possible withdrawal of the Western sanctions and the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.

5.
Romanian Journal of European Affairs ; 22(1):85-103, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1918673

ABSTRACT

The 2008 economic recession, followed by the sovereign debt crisis, made it clear that the original design of EMU was unsustainable. Together with the most urgent adjustments, the need for a profound reform of the system has been on the agenda for more than a decade. Despite significant steps being taken, no comprehensive reform has yet been delivered. In this paper, the background and the focus of the EMU reform will be reviewed. The research argues that it is necessary to create a better balance between the common shock absorption instruments (i.e., risk sharing) and to give a greater role for markets as incentives for fiscal and financial discipline (i.e., risk reduction). A new synthesis of the two dominant narratives could form the conceptual core of EMU reform. In this way, the need to create a sustainable system of resilience (the ability to respond and adapt) can be the decisive factor. At the heart of the EMU reform there can be deeper economic and financial union, resilient structures, the increase of risk sharing and the reduction of inherited risk.

6.
Baltic Journal of Economics ; 22(1):1-27, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1908431

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to investigate the effects of various fiscal policy measures for small and open economies by analysing the implications of fiscal shocks in the Baltic countries based on data for the period from 1995 to 2018. For this purpose, we have chosen structural VAR estimation methods following Blanchard, O., & Perotti, R. (2002). An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4), 1329–1368, approach and relied on local projections for robustness checks. We find that the impact on growth of direct taxes, government consumption and public investment is strong and persistent in the analysed cases. Although the responses of FDI to fiscal shocks are less consistent as compared to output, in most cases, we get strong and persistent negative reactions in FDI to increasing tax burden.

7.
Journal of Institutional Economics ; 18(4):621-636, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1908061

ABSTRACT

In a novel experimental design, we investigate the impact of exogenous variation in economic growth and inequality on trusting behaviour. In addition to a control with uniform endowment, three treatments were implemented where the initial endowment is exogenously changed to produce inequality and three growth scenarios where average endowments increase (boom), decrease (recession) or remain unaltered (steady state). We find that aggregate trust and trustworthiness both decrease due to the induced heterogeneity in endowments. Also, trust (but not trustworthiness) decreases (increases) due to recessions (booms). The impact of inequality on trust is greatest in a recession and absent in a boom. These aggregate effects are driven mainly by the reactions of those who, after treatment, end up at the bottom of the endowment distribution. These findings are close in sign and in the order of magnitude to those reported in observational studies on the relationship between growth, inequality and trust.

8.
Review of Integrative Business and Economics Research ; 11(3):20-37, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1905340

ABSTRACT

Studies have shown that the accuracy of univariate models tends to perform better than linear regression models, yet the latter is relevant for knowing the relation of each variable to crude oil prices. [...]Russia and nine other countries had joined forces with the 13-member OPEC in 2016. Eight macroeconomic explanatory variables were chosen: production, consumption, net import, ending stock, utilization rate of refineries, interest rates (U.S.), an oil futures contract from NYMEX and the S&P 500 index. [...]its revenues are highly dependent on oil exports, which constitutes 44% of the national budget.

9.
International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis ; 15(4):833-851, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1901360

ABSTRACT

Purpose>This paper aims to identify the external factors that have the greatest impact on housing prices in Lithuania.Design/methodology/approach>The econometric analysis includes stationarity test, Granger causality test, correlation analysis, linear and non-linear regression modes, threshold regression and autoregressive distributed lag models. The analysis is performed based on 137 external factors that can be grouped into macroeconomic, business, financial, real estate market, labour market indicators and expectations.Findings>The research reveals that housing price largely depends on macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product growth and consumer spending. Cash and deposits of households are the most important indicators from the group of financial indicators. The impact of financial, business and labour market indicators on housing price varies depending on the stage of the economic cycle.Practical implications>Real estate market experts and policymakers can monitor the changes in external factors that have been identified as key indicators of housing prices. Based on that, they can prepare for the changes in the real estate market better and take the necessary decisions in a timely manner, if necessary.Originality/value>This study considerably adds to the existing literature by providing a better understanding of external factors that affect the housing price in Lithuania and let predict the changes in the real estate market. It is beneficial for policymakers as it lets them choose reasonable decisions aiming to stabilize the real estate market.

10.
Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business ; 25(1):95-110, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1892563

ABSTRACT

For a long time, tourism has been considered a social, economic and environmental phenomenon that provides products and services whose consumption is supposed to surge in periods of economic growth and wane in periods of slowdown, thereby acting procyclical. To examine this hypothesis, we have explored the exact behavior of tourism activity before and after the last big economic crisis – the Great Recession 2008 followed by the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. We have applied a methodology of business cycle analysis to investigate the relationship between the cyclical components of GDP and tourism nights spent by the residents of 23 EU member states in the 1996-2018 period. We report an important structural change in the relationship between tourism and business cycles. The relationship became apparently weaker over time and finally became insignificant after the end of the crisis, suggesting a smooth structural change. Our findings suggest uncertainty as to how tourism activity would restore its usual dynamics following the end of the current COVID-19 pandemic recession.

11.
Social Enterprise Journal ; 18(3):489-502, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1891385

ABSTRACT

Purpose>This study aims to outline the importance of distinguishing between different types of societal crises and the role that plays in how social enterprises may respond to crises at hand.Design/methodology/approach>Previous literature is used to distinguish between various types of societal crises discussed in the study. Social enterprise responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, economic recession and the racial uprising in the USA that all erupted at the start of the 2020 decade are explored to illustrate the need for different responses to each.Findings>The origin and manifestation of crises differ in that they may have public health, natural, economic or even intentionally man-made origins. In addition, in times of crisis, social enterprises must be prepared to innovate, adapt or at least manage the effects of one or more crises on their organizations. These innovations may be social, technology or economic innovations.Research limitations/implications>This study contributes to knowledge about the role and value of social enterprise as a tool for addressing societal issues. The three types of crises explored in this paper will likely reoccur and evolve to manifest in new ways. As such, it is imperative that research on the efficacy of social enterprises during times of crisis are conducted to inform practice, policy and future research.Practical implications>This study aims to inform and encourage institutions, particularly social enterprises, to recognize that “winter always comes.” Crises always happen in life and how organizations respond to such crises will differ based on the type of crisis at hand. This study particularly contributes to knowledge by emphasizing the need for social enterprises to think about both economic uncertainty and the role they play in addressing crises in the long-term, not just when they occur.Originality/value>To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is one of the first to explore the role and value of social enterprises as a tool for combatting major social crises such as racism, pandemics and recessions.

12.
Advances in Decision Sciences ; 26(1):1-25, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1888151

ABSTRACT

Purpose: The primary objective of this paper is to identify the best forecasting model for China exports, especially during the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methodology: We used the data of China exports to the United States and different economic regions from January 2014 to January 2021 to compare models using various criteria and selected the best exports forecast model. The hybrid model is employed to conduct the analysis. The combination of the hybrid model consists of six different models: ARIMA, ETS, Theta, NNAR, seasonal and trend decomposition, and TBATS model. Findings: Our results showed that the hybrid and ANN outperformed the remaining models in forecasting China exports to the world, considering the shock created by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. This paper underscores the importance of using the specified models in forecasting exports during this period. The results also demonstrate that the magnitude of China exports to all groups decreased and will continue to decline for the next few months. Practical Implication: Forecasting of the export data is presented for the subsequent nine months, thereby providing insights to all policymakers, governments, and investors to be proactive in designing their strategies to avoid any delay/disruption in the imports from China, which could enhance the smooth flow of raw material and sustain industrial production.

13.
Revista de Stiinte Politice ; - (74):53-63, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1887765

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to explain some current considerations and approaches about the credit activity in Albania compared to the other countries in the Western Balkan's region in terms of bank-specific indicators. During 2020 and in the first half of 2021, the evolution of bank credit in the Western Balkan countries continued to be positive, influenced by monetary easing, support for credit risk reduction and other support policies offered by central banks. The balance sheet of banks in the region has improved over the period, and the non-performing loan rate has declined compared to a year ago in most countries. Among the various lending measures, the study of credit activity will be focused on bank credit (loans and advances) to the private sector, one of the most important indicators of bank development. Using a qualitative and quantitative analysis, the main objective of this paper is to generate and explain through a descriptive and graphical analysis, the evolution of the bank credit to the private sector for the six countries of the Western Balkans, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. Countries in the region have benefited from a substantial inflow of foreign funds and cross-border loans before the crisis. When the financial crisis broke out, credit growth declined dramatically and did not begin to recover, in part due to the banking sector's reversal in external financing. The COVID-19 pandemic also brought a sudden negative revision of expectations.

14.
Small Business Economics ; 59(1):117-142, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1877921

ABSTRACT

During the economic slowdown caused by the financial crisis in 2008, grants for entrepreneurs were made available to support economic development. Whether such a policy instrument is effective for business development is a highly relevant question in the aftermath of the COVID-19. We evaluate the causal effects of small business development matching grants using a quasi-experimental approach. The grants were exclusively targeted to women entrepreneurs and provided during the recession after the financial crisis. Our findings demonstrate an increase in bank loans and a positive impact on turnover, value-added, capital, employment, and overall factor productivity for more experienced women entrepreneurs. As the grants are too small to have direct economic effects or indirect effects via the certification effect, they alleviate time and information constraints of women entrepreneurs. The cost-benefit analysis shows an increase in value-added that outweighs the scheme-related costs.Plain English SummaryThis study evaluates the effect of small public grants for women entrepreneurs. Grants were used for childcare and business consultancy costs to alleviate time and information constraints of women entrepreneurs. Benefiting from these grants resulted in higher bank loans. The women entrepreneurs on average invested more money in capital and had better performance measures like turnover and value-added. The effect was particularly evident among more experienced women entrepreneurs. The cost-benefit analysis shows grant-induced increase in value-added outweighs the scheme-related costs. The study implies small public grants for women entrepreneurs increase small firms’ growth, and these grants are in addition a cost-effective policy tool.

15.
Economic and Social Development: Book of Proceedings ; : 62-74, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1877213

ABSTRACT

In an uncertain context related to the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as several other headlines (for example: climate change, multiple social movements...), the world economy has been seriously affected by a recession which has cast its shadows over the national economy, as well as on businesses and enterprises. This paper aims to address the principles and professions of socio-economic management control, which plays a strategic role in decision-making, and especially after the obligation of the remote working (or distance work) which involves companies to digitize. In this framework, we will try to find the answers to the following questions: How can we know if a company has the right person at the right place, and has the right resources, in the right places? How to measure the contribution of skills acquired through training and education, or even more, the gain in productivity? What does the coordination between the management controller and the HRD bring to the company? what are the tools and impacts of digitalization on business performance?

16.
Sustainability ; 14(10):6326, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1871943

ABSTRACT

The construction sector plays a significant role in contributing to uplifts in economic stability by generating employment and providing standardized social development. Economic sustainability in the construction sector has been less addressed despite its wide applicability in the economy. This study aimed to perform a comparative analysis to determine the application of a circular economy in the construction sector toward economic sustainability, along with its long-term forecasting. A time series analysis was used on the construction sector of the United States of America (USA), China, and the United Kingdom (UK) from 1970 to 2020, by taking into account individual effects to propose a framework with global validity. Statistical analysis was performed to analyze the dependence of the construction sector and determine its short- and long-term contributions. The results revealed that the construction sectors in these countries tend to bounce back to equilibrium in the case of short-term effects;however, the construction sector behaves differently with respect to each sector after experiencing long-term effects. The results show that the explanatory power of the forecasting model (R2) was found to be 0.997, 0.992, and 0.996 for the USA, China, and the UK. Based on the concept of the circular economy, it was concluded that the USA will become a leader in attaining sustainability in construction owing to its ability to recover quickly from shocks, and that the USA will become the largest construction sector in terms of GDP, with a USD 0.3 trillion higher GDP than that of the Chinese sector. Meanwhile, there will be no significant change in the construction GDP of the UK up to the end of 2050. Moreover, the speeds of the construction sector toward equilibrium in the long run in the USA, China, and the UK, and regaining of their original positions, is 0.267%, 1.04%, and 0.41% of their original positions, respectively. This study has a significance in acting as a guideline for introducing economic and environmental sustainability in construction policies, because of the potential of the construction sectors to recover from possible recessions in their respective countries.

17.
Administratie si Management Public ; - (38):6-30, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1871621

ABSTRACT

Effective regulation of the labour market depends to a large extent on the quality of public administration. The Covid-19 pandemic highlighted the problem of unemployment in regions, which led to the spread of the shadow economy. The article aims to research the relationship between the unemployment rate and the shadow economy in Lithuanian regions over the period 2000-2019, to reveal the regional disparities in terms of the above-mentioned economic variables and submit recommendations to municipal authorities on how to reduce the strength of the relationship under consideration. Pearson and MCD correlation coefficients revealed that the relationship between the unemployment rate and the shadow economy is negative in all Lithuanian regions. An increase/decrease in the unemployment rate leads to a decrease/increase in the size of the shadow economy. The hypothesis proposing that the municipalities with a high unemployment rate tend to have a stronger relationship with the size of the shadow economy was only partly confirmed. The strongest relationships between the unemployment rate and the size of the shadow economy were found in Visaginas and Marijampolė municipalities, meanwhile only the calculated median values indicated that the unemployment rate in Visaginas amounted to 11.8 percent, and in Marijampolė - to 11.2 percent over the period under consideration. The two abovementioned municipalities are among the municipalities with the highest unemployment rate, but lag behind Lazdynai (15 percent), Ignalina (14.9 percent.), Kalvarija (14.6 percent), Akmenė (14.5 percent), Jurbarkas (14 percent), and Zarasai (14 percent) municipalities. Considering the results, cooperation between the Employment Service and Lithuanian municipalities should be improved with a view to identifying whether a person registered with the Employment Service has applied to a municipality for social support;the State Labour Inspectorate, the Employment Service and the State Tax Inspectorate should also improve their cooperation to establish the principles for exchange of the data on the activities of the labour force assigned to risk groups.

18.
Wirtschaftsdienst ; 102(5):347-353, 2022.
Article in German | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1859013

ABSTRACT

ZusammenfassungDie deutsche Wirtschaft steuert durch schwieriges Fahrwasser. Die Auftriebskräfte durch den Wegfall der Pandemiebeschränkungen, die Nachwehen der Coronakrise und die Schockwellen durch den Krieg in der Ukraine sorgen für gegenläufige konjunkturelle Strömungen. Allen Einflüssen gemeinsam ist ihre preistreibende Wirkung.Alternate :The German economy is steering through difficult waters. Tail winds from fading pandemic restrictions, supply-side bottlenecks in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis, and shock waves caused by the war in Ukraine are dragging the economy in opposing directions. The common factor is the price-driving effect. Abruptly stopping gas deliveries from Russia to the European Union would drive the German economy into a deep recession. In this case, the accumulated loss of overall economic output would amount to 220 billion euro by the end of 2023.

19.
SSRN; 2022.
Preprint in English | SSRN | ID: ppcovidwho-336307

ABSTRACT

Background: How are economic downturns and suicide related? Objective: This study examines the link between economically driven austerity measures implemented during a recent economic downturn—the Greek debt crisis—and suicide for the population as a whole, as well as for men and women separately. Methods: Utilizing a 50-nation panel containing annual suicide counts and population demographics for the years 1995–2015 from the World Health Organization's Mortality archive, the analysis employs a synthetic control design, a quasi-experimental approach that allows us to causally model the relationship between Greece's International Monetary Fund-imposed austerity measures and suicide, something that has hampered prior research efforts. Results: Findings show austerity policies corresponded with increased suicide rates in Greece for the population as a whole and for men and women. Robustness tests confirm these results. Conclusions: We discuss the implications of the findings for the current economic crisis associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

20.
Real Estate Issues ; 45(18):1-4, 2021.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1848826

ABSTRACT

The "headline numbers" flowing from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Census Bureau, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and other agencies provide ambiguous information unless put under the microscope. [...]holding Fed-managed interest rates near the "zero bound" and keeping its balance sheet expanded at nearly $8 trillion in assets places structural pressures on monetary policy in an economy whose outlook remains unpredictable.8 Fiscal policy, meanwhile, has its own challenges, some of which are economic but most of which are political. Conversation around Federal spending has been couched in terms of "stimulus" and "recovery", but both of those terms are mistaken - reflecting the misapprehension that the pandemic disruption can be viewed as a typical recession susceptible to the usual remedies. Besides the continuing epidemiological risk, the ongoing structural problems of income inequality, technological displacement, housing insecurity, and infrastructure decay are areas where fiscal policy could and should make a lasting positive difference. According to CBRE, office net absorption in the first quarter of 2021 was negative 34.8 million square feet, and vacancy rose even more steeply than in the worst year of the Great Recession.9 With more than 111 million square feet still in the construction pipeline, office owners are braced for more bad news later this year and into 2022.10 Retail real estate was hammered long before COVID-19 arrived, as the sector has been "overstored" throughout the 21st century and was threatened by e-commerce even prior to the population being required to shelter in place in 2020. [...]cap rates ranging, on average, from 5.0 percent (for apartments) to 6.6 percent (for retail) are keeping pricing rich compared with the risk inherent in that underwriting uncertainty.12 We are observing many investors increasing their focus on property management aimed at retaining tenants and defending cash flow, while selectively seeking "value-add" properties amenable to active asset management.

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