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1.
Finance Research Letters ; JOUR: 103483,
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2104947

ABSTRACT

There was a significant increase in the demand for physical money during the COVID-19 pandemic. This stood in stark contrast to the decline in demand witnessed during previous pandemics. However, the change was not uniform and varied significantly between countries. By employing the “national culture” framework to identify the drivers of this variation, this study found that uncertainty avoidance, as well as social norms regarding gratification, played a major role. This suggests that some central banks should hold larger cash reserves to mitigate the risk of uncertainty and that the national culture framework may prove useful in researching the international differences in past, present, and future money demand.

2.
Rev Med Interne ; 2022 Nov 09.
Article in French | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2105839

ABSTRACT

Uncertainty in inherent to every aspects of medical practice. As the concept of uncertainty in healthcare is still to explore, deciphering the determinants and the roots of this uncertainty would benefit from the insights of various disciplines, such as epistemology, sociology, mathematics, or philosophy. The urgent need to improve physician's ability to cope with uncertainty, has been recently highlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Besides, the concept of uncertainty tolerance has been proposed, and could serve as a relevant basis for approaching uncertainty, in medical education. Thus, we propose at first to discuss the uncertainty tolerance framework from Hillen et al. Then, from an educational perspective, we outline some avenues regarding how uncertainty tolerance could be thought, in a competence-based approach, and discuss several educational activities, which have proven efficient in promoting uncertainty tolerance among medical practitioners abroad.

3.
J Anxiety Disord ; 92: 102633, 2022 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2105256

ABSTRACT

A growing body of research examines the COVID-19 pandemic's effects on well-being. Only few studies focus on older adults or explore the predictors of COVID-19-related anxiety. Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) and some behaviors (e.g., avoidance, procrastination) are linked to anxiety among older adults and could both be relevant to consider in a pandemic context. This study measured the occurrence and anxiety levels among older adults and verified the possible role of IU and behaviors in predicting anxiety symptoms, impairment and distress related to COVID-19 health standards. It also examined the indirect effect of IU on symptoms, impairment and distress through behaviors. Participants aged 60 and over (N = 356) were recruited and administered questionnaires. Anxiety levels and symptom impairment were high and appeared to have increased since the beginning of the pandemic. IU and behavioral manifestations of anxiety were associated with higher anxiety symptoms, impairment and distress related to COVID-19 health standards. The indirect effects of IU on the tendency to worry and COVID-19-related anxiety through behavioral manifestations of anxiety were confirmed. This study provides knowledge on the relationship between COVID-19 and anxiety in older adults and identifies predictors relevant to this population.

4.
J Affect Disord ; 322: 15-23, 2022 Nov 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2105238

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Fear is an evolutionary adaptive emotion that serves to protect the organism from harm. Once a threat diminishes, fear should also dissipate as otherwise fear may become chronic and pathological. While actual threat of the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e., number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths) has substantially varied over the course of the pandemic, it remains unclear whether (subjective) fear has followed a similar pattern. METHOD: To examine the development of fear of COVID-19 during the pandemic and investigate potential predictors of chronic fear, we conducted a large online longitudinal study (N = 2000) using the Prolific platform between April 2020 and June 2021. Participants were voluntary response samples and consisted of residents of 34 different countries. The Fear of the Coronavirus Questionnaire (FCQ) and several other demographic and psychological measures were completed monthly. RESULTS: Overall, we find that fear steadily decreased since April 2020. Additional analyses showed that elevated fear was predicted by region (i.e., North America > Europe), anxious traits, gender, risks for loved ones, general health, and media use. LIMITATIONS: The interpretation of the results of this study is limited by the non-representativeness of the sample and the lack of data points between August 2020 and June 2021. CONCLUSIONS: This study helps to characterize the trajectory of fear levels throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and establish several relevant predictors of increased fear.

5.
Sibirskiy Psikhologicheskiy Zhurnal-Siberian Journal of Psychology ; JOUR(85): 190-204,
Article in Russian | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2100557

ABSTRACT

The aim of the study is to develop and test an express diagnostic method for determining psychosemantic markers of self-regulation components deficiency in clients during an online counseling situation. The article describes the specifics of the population's appeals to psychological services from universities for psychological help since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. It shows that people's requests have a different focus: problems with behavior, problems with cognitive functions, problems with emotions, will, motivation, etc. However,a common component in all requests is a pronounced lack of self-regulatory resources in solving problems that arise in situations of increasing uncertainty. The study results of psychosemantic markers of components deficiency in human selfregulation during situations of increasing uncertainty are presented. The relevance of the results of the components deficiency in human self-regulation is determined by the fact that self-regulation is an important resource of an individual, which contributes to successful adaptation to various life difficulties and situations, including situations of forced increasing uncertainty such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the analysis of various theoretical works and empirical studies, 4 main groups of deficits (deficiencies) of self-regulation, characteristic of people in a situation of increasing uncertainty, were identified: deficiency of the operational component of self-regulation, deficiency of the emotional-volitional component of selfregulation, deficiency of the motivational component of self-regulation and deficiency in the individual-personal component of self-regulation. This empirical study of psychosemantic markers of deficiency in self-regulation components was carried out using the method of content analysis of requests from people who applied for help to the TSU psychological service during the COVID-19 pandemic. It was noted that the number of deficiencies in different people are both minimal (only 1 type of deficiency occurs) and maximum (all 4 identified types of deficiency occur). Thus, the predominant type of deficiency among people who applied for help to the psychological service of TSU was the deficit of the emotional-volitional component of self-regulation, namely, problems with the regulation of fear, anxiety and aggression. This fact indicates that the situation of uncertainty to a greater extent affected the emotional component of the psyche. In addition, it is the self-regulation of emotions that is one of the most complex types of self-regulation, and this is probably why there are more related requests to it. The deficit of the operational component of self-regulation was the least common. The novelty of the study is the indications psychosemantic tools, which allows collecting diagnostic information in the course of working with a client on an online consultative platform.

6.
Ricerche Di Psicologia ; JOUR(2), 45.
Article in Italian | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2099085

ABSTRACT

The Covid-19 pandemic has represented and continues to represent a moment of crisis for many societies worldwide. During times of emergency like this, conspiracy theories spread very quickly as they provide simple explanations to complex events giving the illusion of being in control of an unknown and often frightening reality. Recently there has been an increase in the spread, especially online, of conspiracy theories connected both to the Covid-19 pandemic and to other social events. However, the spread of conspiracy theories can have very serious social consequences such as favoring the flourishing of forms of radicalization. In the present cross-sectional research conducted in Italy (N = 197) we used the Significance Quest Theory (SQT;Kruglanski et al., 2017) to describe how radicalization is connected to the quest for significance that can lead people to embrace a conspiracy mentality which in turn can support radicalized cognitions and behaviors. The results of this study reveal that the relationships between quest for significance and the tendency to radicalization and forms of prejudice towards immigrants, are partly explained by conspiracy thinking. The theoretical-practical implications of this research take into consideration the developments of SQT applied to the understanding of conspiracy thinking and the prefiguration of educational actions to be designed in a transformative perspective.

7.
The European Journal of Finance ; JOUR: 1-19,
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2096977

ABSTRACT

We forecast realized variance (RV) of Real Estate Investment Trusts for 10 leading markets and regions, derived from 5-minutes-interval intraday data, based on the information content of two alternative metrics of daily oil-price uncertainty. Based on the period of the analysis covering January 2008 to July 2020, and using variants of the popular MIDAS-RV model, augmented to include oil market uncertainties, captured by its RV (also derived from 5-minute intraday data) and implied volatility (i.e. the oil VIX), we report evidence of significant statistical and economic gains in the forecasting performance. The result is robust to the size of the forecasting samples, including that of the COVID-19 period, lag-length, nonlinearities, asymmetric effects, and forecast horizon. Our results have important implications for investors and policymakers.

8.
J Theor Biol ; : 111337, 2022 Nov 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2095715

ABSTRACT

During the SARS-CoV2 pandemic, epidemic models have been central to policy-making. Public health responses have been shaped by model-based projections and inferences, especially related to the impact of various non-pharmaceutical interventions. Accompanying this has been increased scrutiny over model performance, model assumptions, and the way that uncertainty is incorporated and presented. Here we consider a population-level model, focusing on how distributions representing host infectiousness and the infection-to-death times are modelled, and particularly on the impact of inferred epidemic characteristics if these distributions are misspecified. We introduce an SIR-type model with the infected population structured by 'infected age', i.e. the number of days since first being infected, a formulation that enables distributions to be incorporated that are consistent with clinical data. We show that inference based on simpler models without infected age, which implicitly misspecify these distributions, leads to substantial errors in inferred quantities relevant to policy-making, such as the reproduction number and the impact of interventions. We consider uncertainty quantification via a Bayesian approach, implementing this for both synthetic and real data focusing on UK data in the period 15 Feb-14 Jul 2020, and emphasising circumstances where it is misleading to neglect uncertainty. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

9.
Children (Basel) ; 9(11)2022 Oct 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2090020

ABSTRACT

Abundant research indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic has been negatively affecting mental health in adolescence. Few works, however, benefit from data from the same sample before and after the onset of the pandemic. The present longitudinal study involved a non-clinical group of 136 Italian adolescents (Mage = 16.3 years ± 1.08, 67% girls) to investigate their psychological response to the first lockdown and explore the role of a protective trait (i.e., Positivity) in moderating the effect of Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) on internalizing symptoms before and during the COVID-19 outbreak. Participants completed self-report questionnaires assessing psychopathological symptoms, psychological well-being, IU, and Positivity on three separate occasions: October 2019 (T1), January 2020 (T2), and April 2020 (T3). The results showed that internalizing and externalizing symptoms as well as psychological well-being did not vary significantly over time. Positivity was found to significantly moderate the relationship between IU and internalizing symptoms at T3 (i.e., during the COVID-19 lockdown) only. Overall, our findings suggest that the teenagers' good adjustment to the initial phase of the pandemic might have been associated with the enhanced weight of the Positivity trait, which may have encouraged a positive attitude towards self, life, and the future.

10.
(2022) Academic resilience: Personal stories and lessons learnt from the COVID-19 experience xviii, 160 pp Bingley, United Kingdom: Emerald Publishing|United Kingdom ; CHAP
Article in English | APA PsycInfo | ID: covidwho-2087966

ABSTRACT

In this work for academics, international contributors in education, communication, new media, digital learning, and organization studies describe the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on academics in higher education, and their institutions. The book highlights the personal and professional experiences of academics across varying career stages. Four chapters are devoted to personal stories of sustained resilience in the face of the obstacles and uncertainty of the pandemic. Others chapters demonstrate collective resilience and collaboration, with examples from around the world. In addition, the book presents a conceptual framework, the Academic Resilience Model. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)

11.
Academic resilience: Personal stories and lessons learnt from the COVID-19 experience ; CHAP: 3-22,
Article in English | APA PsycInfo | ID: covidwho-2087958

ABSTRACT

The pressures brought about by the COVID-19 global pandemic in 2020 have amplified the significance of academic resilience and highlight the importance of a shared insights into academics' experiences. The responses to academic work within this context has received little research attention despite its universality during the pandemic. Failing to recognise, or 'invisibilising' the roles and needs of academics during a pandemic, is a significant concern. This chapter explores this uncharted terrain, and presents stories of resilience-being a postdoc in a foreign country (de los Reyes), negotiating (yet another) contract (Mahat), navigating research in a different context (Cohrssen), and digital engagement in academia (Blannin)-from academics in different career stages and global contexts. These stories provide points of reflection for those navigating the complex world of academia during these uncertain times. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)

12.
R Soc Open Sci ; 9(10): 220021, 2022 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2087952

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) forecasts from over 100 models are readily available. However, little published information exists regarding the performance of their uncertainty estimates (i.e. probabilistic performance). To evaluate their probabilistic performance, we employ the classical model (CM), an established method typically used to validate expert opinion. In this analysis, we assess both the predictive and probabilistic performance of COVID-19 forecasting models during 2021. We also compare the performance of aggregated forecasts (i.e. ensembles) based on equal and CM performance-based weights to an established ensemble from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Our analysis of forecasts of COVID-19 mortality from 22 individual models and three ensembles across 49 states indicates that-(i) good predictive performance does not imply good probabilistic performance, and vice versa; (ii) models often provide tight but inaccurate uncertainty estimates; (iii) most models perform worse than a naive baseline model; (iv) both the CDC and CM performance-weighted ensembles perform well; but (v) while the CDC ensemble was more informative, the CM ensemble was more statistically accurate across states. This study presents a worthwhile method for appropriately assessing the performance of probabilistic forecasts and can potentially improve both public health decision-making and COVID-19 modelling.

13.
Empir Econ ; : 1-20, 2022 Oct 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2085332

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to investigate whether the predictive performance and behaviour of professional forecasters are different during the COVID-19 pandemic as compared with the global financial crisis of 2008 and normal times. To this end, we use a survey of professional forecasters in Singapore collated by the central bank to analyse the forecasting records for GDP growth and CPI inflation for the period 2000Q1-2021Q4. We first examine the point forecasts to document the extent of forecast failure during the two crises and explore various explanations for it, such as leader-following and herding behaviour. Then, using percentile-based summary measures of probability distribution forecasts, we study how the degree of consensus and extent of subjective uncertainty among forecasters were affected by crisis conditions. A trend break is observed in the subjective uncertainty associated with growth projections after the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. In contrast, both subjective uncertainty and the degree of consensus in inflation projections were essentially unchanged in crises, suggesting that the short-term inflation expectations of forecasters were strongly anchored.

14.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis ; JOUR: 1-29,
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2082986

ABSTRACT

We study how the market return depends on the time of the day using E-mini S&P 500 futures actively traded around the clock. Strikingly, 4 hours around European open account for the entire average market return. This period's returns have a 1.6 Sharpe ratio and remain high after transaction costs. Average returns are a noisy zero during the remaining 20 hours. High returns are consistent with European investors processing information accumulated overnight and thus resolving uncertainty. Indeed, uncertainty reflected by VIX futures prices rises overnight and falls around European open. The results are stronger during the 2020 COVID crisis.

15.
International Review of Financial Analysis ; JOUR: 102416,
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2082857

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the quantile connectedness between uncertainties and green bonds in the US, Europe, and China by using a quantile VAR model-based connectedness approach. The empirical findings suggest that the spillover effect under extreme market conditions is significantly higher than that under normal market conditions. We also show that stock market uncertainty (VIX) and oil market uncertainty (OVX) have a greater impact on green bonds, especially in extreme upward markets. In addition, the US is the dominant transmitter of spillovers in other green bond markets, while China is always the net receiver of spillovers. Further research, meanwhile, demonstrates that the connectedness between green bonds and uncertainties is time-varying and that the spillover effects at extreme upper and lower quantiles are asymmetric and heterogeneous, especially in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings provide investors and policymakers with systematic insights into the risk resistance of different green bond markets.

16.
Non-conventional in English | APA PsycInfo | ID: covidwho-2078029

ABSTRACT

This book examines creative approaches to mental health literacy. In the wake of COVID-19, and the onslaught of major war breaking out once again in Europe, the mental health of young people is at stake, with increasing numbers struggling with anxiety, depression, and other psychological challenges. It provides an accessible, lively, and creative entry point to mental health literacy and young people at a time of unprecedented challenges to their psychological health, with increased uncertainty about physical survival, rising cases of anxiety, depression, stress, and loneliness, all compounded by hampered social connectedness, losses in educational attainment, and concerns for future employment opportunities. The book introduces the reader unfamiliar with this concept to the ways that the creative arts not only contribute to positive mental health, but may also be the best chance to advance understanding of and responses to mental health challenges. The first part focuses on improving upstream knowledge about and responses to the difficult transitional period young people aged 17-24 face to reduce or counter the development of specific mental health disorders downstream. The second part examines downstream mental health literacy when particular disorders are already part of the lives of young people given that 50% of mental disorders begin by age 14 with 75% beginning by age 26. The book concludes with a short review of creative and coproductive strategies for advancing mental health literacy with and for young people upstream and downstream. It should be of interest to young people in secondary and higher education, parents, teachers, caregivers, coaches, clergy, and more. It will also be of interest to undergraduates, postgraduates, academic researchers, clinicians, educators, charitable bodies and the wider public interested in the mental health of young people and/or the application of creative practices to enhance health and wellbeing. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)

17.
Autism ; : 13623613221119749, 2022 Oct 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2079320

ABSTRACT

LAY ABSTRACT: More and more research shows us that autistic individuals are at risk of experiencing mental health problems in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, little is known about why this is the case. At two timepoints during the pandemic, we asked 149 autistic and 147 non-autistic adults about feelings of anxiety, depression, and stress, and about characteristics that may explain why some (autistic) people have a larger chance of developing anxiety and depression during this pandemic. In our study, autistic adults experienced more anxiety and depression than non-autistic adults. Across autistic and non-autistic individuals, the people who experienced more stress at timepoint 1 experienced more anxiety and depression 4 months later. This was especially the case for those individuals who use maladaptive coping styles, such as denial or venting, and for those who have difficulties dealing with uncertain situations. Our findings show the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mental health of autistic adults. Interventions to support autistic adults during and after the pandemic are needed, and they may want to focus on the negative impact of stress and teach autistic (and non-autistic) adults more adaptive ways to cope with stressful circumstances.

18.
Eval Rev ; : 193841X221132125, 2022 Oct 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2079149

ABSTRACT

Uncertainty is an overarching aspect of life that is particularly pertinent to the present COVID-19 pandemic crisis; as seen by the pandemic's rapid worldwide spread, the nature and level of uncertainty have possibly increased due to the possible disconnects across national borders. The entire economy, especially the tourism industry, has been dramatically impacted by COVID-19. In the current study, we explore the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and pandemic uncertainty (PU) on inbound international tourism by using data gathered from Italy, Spain, and the United States for the years 1995-2021. Using the Quantile on Quantile (QQ) approach, the study confirms that EPU and PU negatively affected inbound tourism in all states. Wavelet-based Granger causality further reveals bi-directional causality running from EPU to inbound tourism and unidirectional causality from PU to inbound tourism in the long run. The overall findings show that COVID-19 has had a strong negative effect on tourism. So resilient skills are required to restore a sustainable tourism industry.

19.
Siyasal-Journal of Political Sciences ; 31(1):73-89, 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2072439

ABSTRACT

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, causes negative consequences for states in terms of political, economic, sociological, psychological and security. Due to the problems that have occured during the pandemic period, the capacities of states are under pressure. Terrorist organizations aim to put pressure on governments in line with their political objectives by creating anxiety, fear, and panic on the civilian population with their attacks. This study investigates how the COVID-19 process affects terrorism, and tries to answer the question whether there is a relationship between trust in authority and terrorist activities during this period, or not. Just as states were unprepared for terrorism, they were also caught unprepared for the pandemic. The responses of some states to COVID-19 may further broaden public concern and create conditions that are favorable to terrorism. According to the study, it is explicit that this anxiety environment created by COVID-19 is regarded as an opportunity by terrorist organizations, and it is also obvious that the concern among the population is used and led by terrorist organizations. Curfews and travel restrictions also create mitigating conditions for the terrorist threats in most parts of the world during the COVID-19 pandemic.

20.
IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management ; : 1-15, 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2070470

ABSTRACT

Vaccine hesitancy refers to a delay in getting or refusing vaccinations for efficacy reviews from early vaccinated individuals (e.g., social learning). However, no reviews occur if everyone delays. To overcome vaccine hesitancy, we first introduce social learning to characterize this undesirable behavior in two-period vaccine market (composed of a government, a manufacturer, and individuals). Then, designing subsidy policies are in three aspects: subsidy recipients (who should be subsidized, individuals or manufacturer), subsidy times (when subsidy policies should be set, preannounced or responsive), and subsidy paths (how the subsidy level should be adjusted over two periods, increasing or decreasing). Some results are yielded. First, if subsidy recipients are individuals, sales subsidies occur, and their equilibrium subsidy paths hinge on subsidy times. When sales subsidies are preannounced in the first period, a decreasing path is always optimal. In contrast, when these subsidies are responsive in two periods, an increasing path may be optimal. Second, these optimal sales subsidies can counter vaccine hesitancy and, further, utilize social learning to enhance vaccine coverage with different levels. Their differences are affected by two factors (government budgets and uncertain vaccine efficacy levels) that have asymmetric roles. Finally, if subsidy recipients are shifted from individuals to the manufacturer, cost subsidy occurs but it fails to overcome vaccine hesitancy.

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