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1.
Economies ; 11(5), 2023.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-20240634

ABSTRACT

This study employs the panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model to examine the spillover effect of US unconventional monetary policy on inflation and non-inflation targeting emerging markets post credit crunch and during COVID-19 from 2000Q1 to 2020Q4. Unlike other analyses, this paper adds to the existing body of knowledge by employing a dummy variable to represent the United States' quantitative easing. Other included control variables are equity prices, the federal reserve rate, the exchange rate, central bank assets and the short-term interest rate. This paper estimated two-panel VARs, Model one and Model two, for inflation and non-inflation targeting emerging markets, respectively. Model one consists of eight inflation-targeting markets, and Model two consists of four non-inflation-targeting countries. Other included control variables are equity prices, the federal reserve rate, the nominal effective exchange rate, and the central bank policy rate. According to the empirical results, the US unconventional monetary policy induces a surge in the exchange rate and a decrease in the central bank policy rate for both inflation and non-inflation targeting emerging markets. However, there was no significant impact on the equity prices. The empirical results are statistically significant, robust, and consistent with previous studies except for the response of equity prices. Unconventional monetary policy is effective in steering macroeconomic variables in developed economies. The monetary policymakers in emerging markets must also use the currency reserve to stabilise the macroeconomic variables in response to US unconventional monetary policy shocks.

2.
Accounting, Economics, and Law ; 13(2):169-215, 2023.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-20234538

ABSTRACT

Two major economic crises in the early twenty-first century have had a serious impact on monetary policy and CB independence. Disruption in financial intermediation and associated deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 and European financial crisis of 2010–2015 pushed central banks (CBs) in major currency areas towards adoption of unconventional monetary policy measures, including large-scale purchase of government bonds (quantitative easing). The same approach has been taken by CBs in response to the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 even if the characteristics of this crisis differ from the previous one. As a result of both crises, CBs have become major holders of government bonds and de facto – main creditors of governments. Against rapidly deteriorating fiscal balances, CBs have become hostages of fiscal policies, which compromises their independence. Risks to the CB independence also come from their additional mandates (beyond price stability) and populist political pressures.

3.
Journal of Economic Surveys ; 37(3):890-914, 2023.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-20233132

ABSTRACT

In response to the Covid‐19 crisis, the European Central Bank (ECB) has relaunched a massive asset purchase programme within its combined‐arms monetary strategy. This paper surveys and discusses the theory and the evidence of the central bank's unconventional monetary tools for the euro area. It analyses the role of the asset purchase programmes in the ECB's toolkit and the associated risks, focusing specifically on the gradual unwinding of these unconventional initiatives. Finally, the paper offers some insight into the possible evolution of the ECB's monetary policy.

4.
Review of International Economics ; 2023.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-20231293

ABSTRACT

We study the impact of the COVID-19 shock on the portfolio exposures of euro area investors. The analysis "looks-through" holdings of investment fund shares to first gauge euro area investors' full exposures to global debt securities and listed shares by sector at end-2019 and to subsequently analyse the portfolio shifts in the first and second quarters of 2020. We show heterogeneous patterns across asset classes and sectors, but also across less and more vulnerable euro area countries. In particular, we find a broad-based rebalancing towards domestic sovereign debt at the expense of extra-euro area sovereigns in the first quarter of 2020, consistent with heightened home bias, which however levelled off in the second quarter. On the contrary, for listed shares we find that euro area investors rebalanced away from domestic towards extra-euro area securities in both the first and the second quarter, which may be associated with better relative foreign stock market performance. Many of these shifts were only due to indirect holdings, corroborating the importance of investment funds in assessing investors' exposures-especially for households, insurance companies and pension funds-in particular in times of large shocks. We also confirm the important intermediation role played by investment funds in an analysis focusing on the large-scale portfolio rebalancing observed between 2015 and 2017 during the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme.

5.
International Journal of Economic Policy Studies ; 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2324151

ABSTRACT

The primary contribution of modern economics to policy analysis may be the recognition of the crucial role of expectations in policy intervention. The essence of expectations is to think about others' thinking. We argue that policymakers need recursive thinking, that is, the ability to think about thinking and review three policy episodes related to the lack of recursive thinking. We see that the disciplinary divide or the limited scope of recursive thinking on the side of policymakers can cause huge damage to social welfare in times of crisis. Finally, we consider two examples of future agendas in the recursive approach. © 2023, The Author(s).

6.
Finance Research Letters ; : 103994, 2023.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2315881

ABSTRACT

We analyse the impact of unconventional monetary policy measures undertaken by central banks in response to COVID-19 crisis on asset prices in money markets. Using novel primary issue-level data of commercial papers (CPs) in India and a staggered difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we examine the effects of On-Tap Targeted Long-Term Repo Operations (On Tap TLTRO) on CP yields of issuers belonging to the targeted sectors. We find that the repo operations lead to a significant reduction of around 30 basis points in the borrowing costs of targeted sectors' issuers. The findings highlight the effectiveness of interest rate and bank lending channels of transmission of unconventional monetary policy.

7.
Emerging Markets, Finance & Trade ; 59(5):1591-1606, 2023.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2302000

ABSTRACT

This study examines the impacts of India's unconventional monetary policy on the exchange rate, stock market, and bond market during the COVID-19 crisis. The Reserve Bank of India announced an asset purchase programs (APPs) four times during the pandemic. Using daily data from January 1, 2019, to August 13, 2021, and applying the EGARCH methodology, this study finds that the APPs effectively reduced the yield rate in the bond market and its volatility. However, the first two announcements did not impact the financial market significantly. In contrast, the third and fourth announcements helped to compress the yield rate and its volatility. Further, the AAPs also helped to restrain the exchange rate depreciation and its volatility. Overall findings suggest that APPs had a desired impact on the targeted variables.

8.
Emerging Markets, Finance & Trade ; 59(5):1572-1590, 2023.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2299084

ABSTRACT

Using an event study design, this paper examines the effects of announcements of financial policies, especially monetary policies, on a measure of financial stress in some advanced and emerging economies during the COVID-19 pandemic period. We construct a daily financial stress index for 15 countries during the period from April 1, 2019 to September 30, 2021 . Our results show that announcing financial policies of any type increased financial stress on the day the policy was announced but the effect faded away rather quickly. Moreover, different types of financial policy announcements had different effects on the financial stress subindices. We also find that each component of financial stress responds to the announcement of financial policies differently and announcements of financial policies affect financial stress in most of the countries in our sample, but to different degrees.

9.
Canadian Public Policy ; 48(4):490-502, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2259449

ABSTRACT

The Bank of Canada's purchases of securities under quantitative easing are tantamount to an exchange of a fixed interest rate expense for a floating rate paid on certain liabilities of the Bank of Canada. They also imply that the Government of Canada remains liable for potential losses on these assets. This significantly increases the proportion of federal government debt financed in the money market, exposing the Government of Canada to higher interest rate risk than indicated in the budget documents and has resulted in significant losses to date. The exit from quantitative easing in an anti-inflationary environment poses significant challenges for monetary policy and points to a difficult fiscal situation. © Canadian Public Policy/Analyse de politiques, December/décembre 2022.

10.
Review of Social Economy ; 81(1):154-171, 2023.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2257191

ABSTRACT

In recent decades, and in particular since the shift towards independent central banks, there has been no explicit coordination of fiscal and monetary policy. In the Eurozone, this lack of coordination represents an important flaw, especially since the Eurozone is not an optimal currency area. Complementing monetary union with a transfer union represents one possible solution. This paper argues that the negative impact of post-2008 and post-Covid-19 unconventional monetary policy on income inequalities provides a second reason to coordinate fiscal and monetary policy. Among various institutional arrangements to implement such coordination, the paper defends the idea that the European Central Bank should be sensitive to distributive considerations when formulating its monetary policy. Such an arrangement would help both to contain the distributive side-effects of monetary policy and to at least partially remedy the flaw at the heart of the Eurozone as long as an outright transfer union remains unfeasible.

11.
Applied Economics ; 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2284870

ABSTRACT

We examine whether the COVID-19 pandemic-induced systemic shocks cause a change in the dynamics of monetary policy spillovers among developed economies. Results from our analysis under the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model indicate that: (i) variations in monetary policy actions are explained by monetary policy spillovers;(ii) shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic rocketed monetary policy spillovers;(iii) the Euro area and the US chiefly propagate monetary policy shocks to their counterpart developed economies;and (iv) New Zealand and Japan endure the highest monetary policy shocks. Our results evidence the need for synchronized monetary policy actions during systemic crises. © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

12.
Econ Model ; 121: 106222, 2023 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2272431

ABSTRACT

Although it is widely accepted that exchange rates are connected, what drives these connections remains an unsettled question. We examine the interconnections and spillovers of G10 currencies over the period from January 1, 2018 to June 17, 2021. We find that the Euro and Australian dollar serve as risk transmitters whereas the Japanese yen operates as a risk recipient. During the COVID-19 pandemic period, countries with higher infection cases experience currency depreciation and transmit more currency risk to others. In response to this crisis, the Fed adopted the large-scale asset purchase program that weakened the USD and increased the demand for high-yield currencies through the portfolio rebalancing channel. The appreciation of high-yield currencies further attracts carry trades and enhances their risk transmission to low-yield currencies. Furthermore, we provide evidence to show that the COVID-19 infection cases, the Fed's policy, and carry trades are crucial determinants of exchange rate spillovers.

13.
Journal of International Money and Finance ; 131, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2239813

ABSTRACT

Japanese realized and expected inflation has been below the Bank of Japan's two percent target for many years. We examine the impact of announcements of expansionary monetary and fiscal policy under COVID-19 on inflation expectations from an arbitrage-free term structure model of nominal and real yields. We find that both types of policies failed to lift inflation expectations, which instead declined notably over the pandemic period and are projected to only slowly revert back to Bank of Japan target levels. Our results therefore illustrate the challenges faced in raising well-anchored low inflation expectations. © 2022

14.
Journal of Financial Stability ; 65, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2230845

ABSTRACT

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) enhanced its large-scale asset purchases in October 2010 by purchasing equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This study is the first to demonstrate that the BOJ provides downside protection for stock prices through the countercyclical purchase of ETFs. The BOJ responds to a large negative stock return during the overnight and morning periods, and submits purchase orders during lunchtime. Using the BOJ's March 2020 announcement of doubling the annual purchase amount during the COVID-19 pandemic, this study also finds that the announcement effect is small and temporary. In contrast, the flow effect of the actual purchases is significant and increases. The BOJ's countercyclical ETF purchase prevents equity risk premia from rising during an economic downturn. © 2023 Elsevier B.V.

15.
Emerging Markets Review ; 54, 2023.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2230498

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the effects of macroeconomic policy announcements on financial markets in three Central European economies: Czechia, Hungary, and Poland (CE-3). We focus on the unprecedented stabilisation policies implemented from March to December 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, including unconventional monetary measures and large stimulus programs. Detailed categories of monetary and fiscal measures are introduced into vector autoregressions with exogenous regressors and dynamic conditional correlations, which we estimate using daily data. This allows us to control for policy spillovers from abroad, as well as global risk factors and pandemic-related variables. We find that, in general, macroeconomic policy measures implemented in the CE-3 countries played an important role in stabilising financial markets during the pandemic. We uncover several notable patterns in the reaction of markets to anti-crisis measures across the region. The impact of the monetary policy announcements on 10-year sovereign bond yields was more substantial than on stock market returns and exchange rate returns. The communication of the unconventional tools proved effective in lowering the bond yields. Interestingly, we document that the effects of non-standard measures for some variables, such as the exchange rate, can be qualitatively different from those resulting from a conventional monetary expansion. Even though the domestic monetary events became more important than the fiscal ones, the latter proved relevant for financial market returns, especially when large-scale immediate fiscal measures and tax deferrals were introduced. We also show that the CE-3 economies were subject to the cross-border transmission of policy announcement effects from the Euro Area and the US, although the magnitude of these effects was smaller than expected and varied across the CE-3 countries.

16.
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade ; 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2186867

ABSTRACT

Using an event study design, this paper examines the effects of announcements of financial policies, especially monetary policies, on a measure of financial stress in some advanced and emerging economies during the COVID-19 pandemic period. We construct a daily financial stress index for 15 countries during the period from April 1, 2019 to September 30, 2021 . Our results show that announcing financial policies of any type increased financial stress on the day the policy was announced but the effect faded away rather quickly. Moreover, different types of financial policy announcements had different effects on the financial stress subindices. We also find that each component of financial stress responds to the announcement of financial policies differently and announcements of financial policies affect financial stress in most of the countries in our sample, but to different degrees.

17.
The Journal of Economic Education ; : 1-18, 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2186753

ABSTRACT

The authors describe an undergraduate economics elective focused on the Great Recession and the recession resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. They have taught the course with great success at both liberal arts colleges and research universities and at all levels of the curriculum ranging from a first-year seminar to an upper-level elective. They present a roadmap for instructors interested in offering the class. Although intermediate macroeconomics is assumed as a prerequisite, the authors discuss how they have adapted the class for students with different backgrounds. The course is divided into seven units: the housing bubble and asset pricing, housing policy and history, propagation and panic, monetary policy, fiscal policy, aftermath and international perspectives, and the macroeconomics of COVID-19. Sample assignments and readings are both provided.

18.
Journal of Financial Stability ; : 101102, 2023.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2180508

ABSTRACT

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) enhanced its large-scale asset purchases in October 2010 by purchasing equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This study is the first to demonstrate that the BOJ provides downside protection for stock prices through the countercyclical purchase of ETFs. The BOJ responds to a large negative stock return during the overnight and morning periods, and submits purchase orders during lunchtime. Using the BOJ's March 2020 announcement of doubling the annual purchase amount during the COVID-19 pandemic, this study also finds that the announcement effect is small and temporary. In contrast, the flow effect of the actual purchases is significant and increases. The BOJ's countercyclical ETF purchase prevents equity risk premia from rising during an economic downturn.

19.
Journal of International Money and Finance ; : 102788, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2159290

ABSTRACT

Japanese realized and expected inflation has been below the Bank of Japan's two percent target for many years. We examine the impact of announcements of expansionary monetary and fiscal policy under COVID-19 on inflation expectations from an arbitrage-free term structure model of nominal and real yields. We find that both types of policies failed to lift inflation expectations, which instead declined notably over the pandemic period and are projected to only slowly revert back to Bank of Japan target levels. Our results therefore illustrate the challenges faced in raising well-anchored low inflation expectations.

20.
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade ; 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2151321

ABSTRACT

This study examines the impacts of India’s unconventional monetary policy on the exchange rate, stock market, and bond market during the COVID-19 crisis. The Reserve Bank of India announced an asset purchase programs (APPs) four times during the pandemic. Using daily data from January 1, 2019, to August 13, 2021, and applying the EGARCH methodology, this study finds that the APPs effectively reduced the yield rate in the bond market and its volatility. However, the first two announcements did not impact the financial market significantly. In contrast, the third and fourth announcements helped to compress the yield rate and its volatility. Further, the AAPs also helped to restrain the exchange rate depreciation and its volatility. Overall findings suggest that APPs had a desired impact on the targeted variables. © 2022 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

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