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1.
Finance Research Letters ; 52, 2023.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2311745

ABSTRACT

We investigate connectedness between energy cryptocurrencies and common asset classes, including oil, using TVP-VAR modeling, evidencing that energy cryptocurrencies, as diversifiers, normally have strong connections with bitcoin and nothing else. However, their connectedness to other assets changes rapidly during shocks such as COVID-19 and the start of the Russian-Ukraine war. Connectedness spiked in April 2020, when WTI oil prices fell to negative pricing. Economic policy uncertainty, Twitter-based uncertainty, and infectious disease-related uncertainty all have significant impact on the system's total connectedness. Energy cryptocurrencies, while normally diversifiers, are highly sensitive to shocks and changes in uncertainty.

2.
Energy Economics ; 121, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2305099

ABSTRACT

We present a weekly structural Vector Autoregressive model of the US crude oil market. Exploiting weekly data we can explain short-run crude oil price dynamics, including variations related with the COVID-19 pandemic and with the Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The model is set identified with a Bayesian approach that allows to impose restrictions directly on structural parameters of interest, such as supply and demand elasticizes. Our model incorporates both the futures-spot price spread to capture shocks to the real price of crude oil driven by changes in expectations and US inventories to describe price fluctuations due to unexpected variations of above-ground stocks. Including the futures-spot price spread is key for accounting for feedback effects from the financial to the physical market for crude oil and for identifying a new structural shock that we label expectational shock. This shock plays a crucial role when describing the series of events that have led to the spike in the price of crude oil recorded in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. © 2023 Elsevier B.V.

3.
3rd International Conference on Computer Vision and Data Mining, ICCVDM 2022 ; 12511, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2298748

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the correlation between bitcoin, oil price fluctuations and the DOW Jones Industrial Index in the time-frequency framework. Coherent wavelet method applied to recent daily data in the United States (1863 in total). Our research has several implications and supports for policy makers and asset managers. We find that oil prices lead the U.S. market at both low and high frequencies throughout the observation period. This result suggests that sanctions against Russia by a number of countries, including the U.S., are influencing oil prices, while oil remains a major source of systemic risk to the U.S. economy and economic uncertainty between the international level is exacerbated by tensions between Russia and Ukraine. © COPYRIGHT SPIE.

4.
Cogent Economics and Finance ; 11(1), 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2280786

ABSTRACT

The study uses wavelet power spectrum and wavelet coherence transformation methodologies to examine how geopolitical risk affected the returns on stocks, oil, and gold during the GFC, COVID-19, and Russia-Ukraine war-three disruptive events that affected the world's financial markets. For better diversification benefits during the turbulent times, we further investigate the degree of co-movement in frequency and time domains. We observe that GPR has high variations during Russia-Ukraine war period compared to COVID-19 period and is shown to have least variation during the GFC period. WTI crude oil and DJGI indexes are observed to have high variations during GFC, and COVID-19 periods followed by Russia-Ukraine war. We further observe that GOLD offers better diversification opportunity as well as leading movement against WTI and DJGI during disruptive events in financial markets. The results provide new understanding of how geopolitical risk affects financial assets for international investors, fund managers, and regulators, which would further aid to find risky and safer haven possibilities during the turmoil periods. © 2023 The Author(s). This open access article is distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) 4.0 license.

5.
Energies ; 16(5), 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2277316

ABSTRACT

After the economic shock caused by COVID-19, with relevant effects on both the supply and demand for energy assets, there was greater interest in understanding the relationships between key energy prices. In order to contribute to a deeper understanding of energy price relationships, this paper analyzes the dynamics between the weekly spot prices of oil, natural gas and benchmark ethanol in the US markets. The analysis period started on 23 June 2006 and ended on 10 June 2022. This study used the DMCA cross-correlation coefficient in a dynamic way, using sliding windows. Among the main results, it was found that: (i) in the post-pandemic period, oil and natural gas were not correlated, in both short- and long-term timescales;and (ii) ethanol was negatively associated with natural gas in the most recent post-pandemic period, especially in short-term scales. The results of the present study are potentially relevant for both market and public agents regarding investment diversification strategies and can aid public policies due to the understanding of the interrelationship between energy prices. © 2023 by the authors.

6.
International Journal of Energy Sector Management ; 17(3):552-568, 2023.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2273440

ABSTRACT

PurposeThis paper aims to empirically investigate the extent to which interdependence in markets may be driven by COVID-19 effects.Design/methodology/approachThe current global COVID-19 pandemic is adversely affecting the oil market (West Texas Intermediate) and crypto-assets markets.FindingsThe authors find that the dependence structure changes significantly after the global pandemic, providing valuable information on how the COVID-19 crisis affects interdependencies. The results also prove that the performance of digital gold seems to be better compared to stablecoin.Originality/valueThe authors fit copulas to pairs of before and after returns, analyze the observed changes in the dependence structure and discuss asymmetries on propagation of crisis. The authors also use the findings to construct portfolios possessing desirable expected behavior.

7.
Ekonomika ; 101(2):125-145, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2265505

ABSTRACT

This paper probes the relationship between geopolitical risks (GPR), WTI oil, and gold prices utilizing the time-varying causality and quantile regression approaches. The sample period spans from January 1986 to January 2022, comprising 433 monthly observations and representing the longest common period of data availability. The results show that there is no causality between the pairs of GPR–WTI, and GPR–gold prices for the full sample period, while the causality between gold and WTI is unidirectional, running from gold to WTI. Using the rolling causality test, however, the findings show that the dynamic causal relations strengthen over time. The Granger causality from the gold prices to GPR and WTI is stronger than the other way around, suggesting that the gold market dominates the other two variables in terms of strength of the lead-lag structure of causality. Besides, the findings reveal the strongest causation effects between GPR and WTI spot prices. Before 2009, the causal relationship between WTI and GPR is mostly unidirectional while also a bidirectional linkage emerges, coinciding with the crisis periods including the Dot-Com and 2007 US Subprime crises. During the causal periods, these variables respond negatively to changes in others. For the COVID19 period, the direction of causality considerably changes in favor of WTI for the GPR–WTI pair whereas it is unchanged for the WTI–gold pair. The results indicate that WTI has positive and negative predictive powers for GPR and gold while it receives negative and positive causation effects from GPR and gold during the pandemic, respectively. The results, in overall, may offer important insights for investors and regulatory authorities in building portfolio and risk management strategies as well as pricing and trading activities and constructing monetary policies over various market conditions. Copyright © 2022 Erkan Kara, Remzi Gökb. Published by Vilnius University Press.

8.
Energy Economics ; 117, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2242535

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the impacts of crude oil-market-specific fundamental factors and financial indicators on the realized volatility of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price. A time-varying parameter vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) is applied to weekly data series spanning January 2008 to October 2021. It is found that the WTI oil price volatility responds positively to a shock in oil production, oil inventories, the US dollar index, and VIX but negatively to a shock in the US economic activity. The response to the EPU index was initially positive and then turned slightly negative before fading away. The VIX index has the most significant effect. Furthermore, the time-varying nature of the response of the WTI realized oil price volatility is evident. Extreme effects materialize during economic recessions and crises, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings can improve our understanding of the time-varying nature and determinants of WTI oil price volatility. © 2022

9.
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy ; 13(1):118-127, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2233512

ABSTRACT

This study examines the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the efficiency of oil markets from February 2nd, 2020 to August 4th, 2021. By relying on dynamic conditional correlation GARCH and Wavelet coherence techniques, we able to provide correlations between the variables across time and frequency domains. Our empirical findings point to significant yet weak correlations between COVID-19 recovery/death rates for the time period extending from early February to early May even though we observe strong correlations between WTI prices and COVID-19 health statistics in mid-April. Moreover, during this identified time period, the length of frequency cycles within the correlations decreases from 16 days to 8 days. Altogether, these findings imply that oil markets were inefficient between February and early May and have since turned market efficient for the remaining duration of the pandemic. © 2023, Econjournals. All rights reserved.

10.
Resources Policy ; 80:103199, 2023.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2165801

ABSTRACT

Using the wavelet TVP-VAR approach, this study looks at the static and dynamic connectedness between oil, gold, and global equity markets during several crises episodes, i.e., US subprime crisis of 2007, the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, European debt crisis of 2009–2012, oil crisis of 2014, China stock market crash 2015–16, and the Covid-19. The findings reveal that the connectedness among these markets varies across short vs. long run horizons and across various financial crisis episodes. The connectedness is observed to be high during the crisis's periods. We also perform the portfolio analysis for the pairs of oil, gold, and equity markets and find that gold and/or oil are useful for various equity markets for portfolio diversification and hedging in various market conditions and time horizons. We contend that the results will be valuable to investors, portfolio managers, and policy makers globally.

11.
Energy Economics ; : 106474, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2158775

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the impacts of crude oil-market-specific fundamental factors and financial indicators on the realized volatility of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price. A time-varying parameter vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) is applied to weekly data series spanning January 2008 to October 2021. It is found that the WTI oil price volatility responds positively to a shock in oil production, oil inventories, the US dollar index, and VIX but negatively to a shock in the US economic activity. The response to the EPU index was initially positive and then turned slightly negative before fading away. The VIX index has the most significant effect. Furthermore, the time-varying nature of the response of the WTI realized oil price volatility is evident. Extreme effects materialize during economic recessions and crises, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings can improve our understanding of the time-varying nature and determinants of WTI oil price volatility.

12.
Finance Research Letters ; : 103389, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2061179

ABSTRACT

We investigate connectedness between energy cryptocurrencies and common asset classes, including oil, using TVP-VAR modeling, evidencing that energy cryptocurrencies, as diversifiers, normally have strong connections with bitcoin and nothing else. However, their connectedness to other assets changes rapidly during shocks such as COVID-19 and the start of the Russian-Ukraine war. Connectedness spiked in April 2020, when WTI oil prices fell to negative pricing. Economic policy uncertainty, Twitter-based uncertainty, and infectious disease-related uncertainty all have significant impact on the system's total connectedness. Energy cryptocurrencies, while normally diversifiers, are highly sensitive to shocks and changes in uncertainty.

13.
Ann Oper Res ; 313(1): 77-103, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1919836

ABSTRACT

Investigating the co-movements between crude oil futures helps to understand the integration of the global markets. This paper focuses on Shanghai crude oil futures (INE) and study its co-movements with the international benchmarks of WTI and Brent crude oil futures in intra-day day and night trading sessions. A complex network model framework is proposed to analyse the intra-day co-movement patterns labelled by a functional data clustering approach on intra-day return curves. Our findings indicate INE is more integrated with the global market during the night session, but it shows a regional fractional effect during the day session. Based on the revealed dynamics of co-movement patterns, we further design a pairs trading strategy between INE crude oil futures and the international benchmarks. The simulation results show that the pairs trading strategy can be promisingly profitable, even during market turmoil phases.

14.
International Review of Financial Analysis ; 82, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1873095

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the directional causal relationship and information transmission among the returns of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent, major cryptocurrencies, and stablecoins by drawing on daily data from July 2019 to July 2020. Applying effective transfer entropy, a non-parametric statistic, the results show that the direction of the causal relationship and the nature of information spillovers changed after the COVID-19 pandemic. More precisely, our findings reveal that WTI and Brent are leading the prices of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. Conversely, Bitcoin futures and stablecoins (TrueUSD and USD Coin) are leading WTI and Brent prices. In addition, the stablecoin Tether became a leader against Brent prices after the pandemic, although it is still following WTI prices. Moreover, Ethereum and USD coin preserved their position as leaders against Brent prices. Interestingly, our results also reveal that Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple preserved their position as leaders of WTI prices. The change in the nature of directional causality and the spillover effect after the COVID-19 crisis provide valuable information for practitioners, investors, and policymakers on how the ongoing pandemic influences the connection and network correlation among the energy, cryptocurrency, and stablecoin markets. © 2022 Elsevier Inc.

15.
International Journal of Energy Sector Management ; : 17, 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1868466

ABSTRACT

Purpose This paper aims to empirically investigate the extent to which interdependence in markets may be driven by COVID-19 effects. Design/methodology/approach The current global COVID-19 pandemic is adversely affecting the oil market (West Texas Intermediate) and crypto-assets markets. Findings The authors find that the dependence structure changes significantly after the global pandemic, providing valuable information on how the COVID-19 crisis affects interdependencies. The results also prove that the performance of digital gold seems to be better compared to stablecoin. Originality/value The authors fit copulas to pairs of before and after returns, analyze the observed changes in the dependence structure and discuss asymmetries on propagation of crisis. The authors also use the findings to construct portfolios possessing desirable expected behavior.

16.
Finance Research Letters ; : 102723, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1709570

ABSTRACT

We investigate volatility spillovers from West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to carbon emission allowance futures, focusing on the period surrounding the WTI negative pricing event of April 2020. Results evidence, pre-negative WTI, a doubling of directional spillover from WTI oil to carbon allowance futures upon the global spread of COVID-19, with a sharp elevation of directional spillover from WTI oil to carbon allowances during the specific period of negative WTI. This extraordinary rise in directional spillover continued past the near-term contract through several ensuing contracts. Results suggest that carbon futures markets are highly sensitive to periods of fragility.

17.
Energy Strategy Reviews ; 39:11, 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1664919

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 epidemic has severely affected the world economy and energy markets. In order to alleviate the shock, stabilize the financial market, and promote economic recovery, the Fed announced an unlimited QE policy. In order to understand the impact of the policy on the energy market under the extreme events, the study selected WTI crude oil and coal prices from January 1, 2018 to May 7, 2021 as the research objects. Taking the two years before the epidemic, the epidemic stage was further divided into four small stages according to the three peaks of the epidemic in the US. The MF-DCCA model calculations show that coal and WTI crude oil have an interactive relationship. The risks between them are not just averaged and superimposed, but transmitted and interacted.The MF-DFA model calculation results show that due to the disorder of energy supply and demand under the epidemic, market efficiency in the first quarter of 2020 has dropped rapidly. However, market effi-ciency decoupled from the development of the epidemic in the second half of 2020. Especially after the announcement of the QE policy, market efficiency has improved significantly. However, under the excessive monetary policy, market efficiency declined in the first half of 2021. This shows that the policy has a certain effect on alleviating the impact of the epidemic on the energy market. But this improvement is not sustainable from the long term. As prices rise, inflation continues. In the future, the volatility and risk of the energy futures market will increase.

18.
Financ Res Lett ; 37: 101773, 2020 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1023571

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we investigate how the relationship between oil and the US stock market has changed after the onset of Covid-19 crisis. To do so, we compute upside and downside correlations between the two markets. Our findings are as follows. First, we document the correlation asymmetry: the downside correlation is higher than the upside correlation. Second, we find that both upside and downside correlations increased after the crisis. This indicates that after the start of the Covid-19 crisis, a positive (negative) oil shock is even better (worse) news for the stock market than an equivalent shock before the crisis.

19.
Financ Res Lett ; 38: 101703, 2021 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-676165

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the causal relationship between crude oil and gold spot prices to assess how the economic impact of COVID-19 has affected them. We analyze West Texas Light crude oil (WTI) and gold prices from January 4, 2010, to May 4, 2020. We detect common periods of mild explosivity in WTI and gold markets. More importantly, we find a bilateral contagion effect of bubbles in oil and gold markets during the recent COVID-19 outbreak.

20.
Chaos Solitons Fractals ; 139: 110084, 2020 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-640134

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has seriously affected world economies. In this regard, it is expected that information level and sharing between equity, digital currency, and energy markets has been altered due to the pandemic outbreak. Specifically, the resulting twisted risk among markets is presumed to rise during the abnormal state of world economy. The purpose of the current study is twofold. First, by using Renyi entropy, we analyze the multiscale entropy function in the return time series of Bitcoin, S&P500, WTI, Brent, Gas, Gold, Silver, and investor fear index represented by VIX. Second, by estimating mutual information, we analyze the information sharing between these markets. The analyses are conducted before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The empirical results from Renyi entropy indicate that for all market indices, randomness and disorder are more concentrated in less probable events. The empirical results from mutual information showed that the information sharing network between markets has changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. From a managerial perspective, we conclude that during the pandemic (i) portfolios composed of Bitcoin and Silver, Bitcoin and WTI, Bitcoin and Gold, Bitcoin and Brent, or Bitcoin and S&P500 could be risky, (ii) diversification opportunities exist by investing in portfolios composed of Gas and Silver, Gold and Silver, Gold and Gas, Brent and Silver, Brent and Gold, or Bitcoin and Gas, and that (iii) the VIX exhibited the lowest level of information disorder at all scales before and during the pandemic. Thus, it seems that the pandemic has not influenced the expectations of investors. Our results provide an insight of the response of stocks, cryptocurrencies, energy, precious metal markets, to expectations of investors in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of information ordering and sharing.

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