The Impact of Ukrainian Crisis on the Connectedness of Stock Index in Asian Economies

The main aim of this study is to measure the dynamic connectedness and spillover effects among emerging stock markets in Asia and the developed stock markets of the US and Europe in the ongoing Ukrainian crisis. The paper also aims to provide a comparative analysis of return and volatility spillovers during the global financial crisis in 2008, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Ukrainian crisis. This paper utilizes the multiple structural beak test of Bai & Perron (2003) and also depicts the risk and return transmissions among these markets using the Diebold & Yilmaz (2012) method. The main outcomes of this study indicate that the stock markets in Asia are less affected by the political crisis in Ukraine as compared to the previous effects during the GFC and COVID-19 periods. The results also show that sensitivity of Asian financial markets to global shocks has been weakened in the wake of the Ukrainian crisis in favour of increased resilience of Asian stock indices to external shocks. These results carry an important implication for international and local investors as well as for policy makers in Asia, where investors have greater potentials for portfolio diversify and risk reduction across Asian markets. © 2023 by the authors. Licensee ESJ, Italy. This is an open access article under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Examining contagion effects between global crude oil prices and the Southeast Asian stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic

Many previous studies identify the contagion effect among various types of assets, defined as the increase in correlation of these assets during a financial or economic crisis. During the COVID-19 outbreak, a historic fall in global fuel demand and oil prices has been witnessed. Because crude oil has a strategic position among the export products of the Southeast Asian economies, even a tiny global oil price change leads to a plunge in these stock markets. This study addresses the spillovers of the volatility between the West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices and stock indices across six ASEAN emerging economies. Besides, the study examines whether a contagion connecting the global energy prices and these stock markets exists during the coronavirus pandemic. The empirical results are acquired by applying the Bayesian test for equality of means on the dynamic conditional correlations computed from DCC-GARCH models. The findings present positive volatility transmission from crude oil prices toward these emerging equity markets. During the health crisis, co-movements intensify, indicating the occurrence of contagion effects. The empirical results provide valid implications for policymakers and international investors because a precise volatility forecast is vital for managing portfolio risk. © Mien Thi Ngoc Nguyen, 2023.

Forecasting the Asian stock market volatility: Evidence from WTI and INE oil futures

This study investigates whether China's crude oil futures (INE) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) markets hold valuable information for estimating the realized volatility of seven Asian stock markets. This study has several notable findings. First, China's oil futures can trigger forecast accuracy for three equity indices (Nikkei 225, NSEI, and FT Straits Times), whereas WTI helps forecast the volatility of the two indices (KSE 100 and KOSPI). Second, comparing China's crude oil futures with WTI's crude oil futures, we find that the former could be an effective indicator for all seven Asian stock markets during a high-volatility period, while WTI information is helpful in forecasting the volatility of the KSE 100, NSEI, and FT Strait Times during the low-volatility period. Further, information of both oil futures is ineffective for the Hang Seng and SSEC equity indices. Our results are robust in several robustness checks, including alternative evaluation methods, recursive window approach, and alternative realized measures, even during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Commodity dynamism in the COVID-19 crisis: Are gold, oil, and stock commodity prices, symmetrical?

The current research intends to examine the commodities' dynamism connection with stock prices under the COVID-19 crisis. DCC-GARCH modeling was applied to the data of Asian economies, including China, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Pakistan to achieve the study objectives. The study's results indicated a significant connection between gold prices with stock prices and oil prices for all Asian stock markets. The results of the study constructs were symmetrical. In general, the connection grows with the frequency. The lowest frequency months contributed the most to the total relationship, followed by more than 12 months. Overall, gold and oil prices influence the Asian stock markets. These research findings can avoid contagion in times of economic uncertainty. This study also suggested policy implications for better decision-making of key stakeholders. Dynamic coefficient values were about 0.8 of ß2 because nations' internal markets were more closely linked. There are also dynamic relationship factors between crude oil and foreign currency markets, where the correlations in India and China have always been around 0.

A Giant Falls: The Impact of Evergrande on Asian Stock Indexes

The economic growth of China has been driven by the development of its real estate market, especially after the 2008 crisis. This growth is mostly related to the huge housing bubble and growing amounts of sovereign debt that have been redirected to corporations in the sector. Evergrande is one of those corporations;it is a Chinese company in the construction and real estate sector, a global giant with investments in many parts of the world. Its bond default in September 2021 sounded alerts in financial markets. Several news outlets spoke of the “next Lehman Brothers”, and apprehension was very high, especially in Asian markets. This research work aims to evaluate the impact of Evergrande’s bond default on six Asian stock markets, using an event study approach. The results show a strong reaction from the markets towards the event in study, even anticipating it. Furthermore, it is worth mentioning a quick reversion to “normal” behavior, indicating the rapid absorption of information by the markets.

Co-movement of asian stock markets: An empirical study

This study employs the TVP-VAR connectedness method to explore the stock market interdependence among nine Asian major economies from 2010 to 2020. From the results, I observe that the interdependence level in the system varies in different years corresponding to global events. For example, the stock markets are more closely connected during the covid-19 pandemic. Moreover, each country has distinctive influence power on other countries, which also fluctuates with time. There exists great heterogeneity in terms of pairwise connectedness between every two countries. The findings have instructive meanings for investors to construct the optimal investing portfolio. The results are also meaningful for policymakers in terms of taking measures to stabilize the stock market in turbulent times. © 2021 ACM.