Infectious diseases and social distancing under state-dependent probabilities.

We analyze the implications of infectious diseases and social distancing in an extended SIS framework to allow for the presence of stochastic shocks with state dependent probabilities. Random shocks give rise to the diffusion of a new strain of the disease which affects both the number of infectives and the average biological characteristics of the pathogen causing the disease. The probability of such shock realizations changes with the level of disease prevalence and we analyze how the properties of the state-dependent probability function affect the long run epidemiological outcome which is characterized by an invariant probability distribution supported on a range of positive prevalence levels. We show that social distancing reduces the size of the support of the steady state distribution decreasing thus the variability of disease prevalence, but in so doing it also shifts the support rightward allowing eventually for more infectives than in an uncontrolled framework. Nevertheless, social distancing is an effective control measure since it concentrates most of the mass of the distribution toward the lower extreme of its support.

Infectious disease, the climate, and the future.

Emergence and resurgence of infectious diseases are serious threats to population health. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused an enormous human toll and health crisis. Responses to the pandemic are significantly affecting the global economy. What is most concerning about COVID-19 is not the virus itself, but rather that it may compound with other and more serious crises. Climate change will likely affect human health, economy, and the society more than disease outbreaks. Governments at all levels, from local to international, can chart a greener, healthier, and equitable course for the future, investing in strategies and technologies that minimize and prevent risks, including those posed by climate change and the pandemic, promoting obligations to drastically reduce emissions, enhancing societal equality, improving community resilience, and achieving sustainable development goals.

Comparative Study of Chemosensory Dysfunction in COVID-19 in 2 Geographically Distinct Regions.

OBJECTIVE: To directly compare the prevalence of chemosensory dysfunction (smell and taste) in geographically distinct regions with the same questionnaires. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was performed to evaluate the self-reported symptoms among adults (older than 18 years) who underwent COVID-19 testing at an ambulatory assessment center in Canada and at a hospital in Israel between March 16, 2020, and August 19, 2020. The primary outcome was the prevalence of self-reported chemosensory dysfunction (anosmia/hypomsia and dysgeusia/ageusia). Subgroup analysis was performed to evaluate the prevalence of chemosensory deficits among the outpatients. RESULTS: We identified a total of 350 COVID-19-positive patients (138 Canadians and 212 Israelis). The overall prevalence of chemosensory dysfunction was 47.1%. There was a higher proportion of chemosensory deficits among Canadians compared to Israelis (66.7% vs 34.4%, P < .01). A subgroup analysis for outpatients (never hospitalized) still identified a higher prevalence of chemosensory dysfunction among Canadians compared to Israelis (68.2% vs 36.1%, P < 0.01). A majority of patients recovered their sense of smell after 4 weeks of symptom onset. CONCLUSION: Although the prevalence of chemosensory deficit in COVID-19 was found to be similar to previously published reports, the prevalence can vary significantly across different geographical regions. Therefore, it is important to obtain regionally specific data so that the symptom of anosmia/dysgeusia can be used as a guide for screening for the clinical diagnosis of COVID-19.

Increase in Motor Vehicle Crash Severity: An Unforeseen Consequence of COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: The 2019 coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic led to stay-at-home (SAH) orders in Pennsylvania targeted at reducing viral transmission. Limitations in population mobility under SAH have been associated with decreased motor vehicle collisions (MVC) and related injuries, but the impact of these measures on severity of injury remains unknown. The goal of this study is to measure the incidence, severity, and outcomes of MVC-related injuries associated with SAH in Pennsylvania. MATERIALS & METHODS: We conducted a retrospective geospatial analysis of MVCs during the early COVID-19 pandemic using a state-wide trauma registry. We compared characteristics of patients with MVC-related injuries admitted to Pennsylvania trauma centers during SAH measures (March 21-July 31, 2020) with those from the corresponding periods in 2018 and 2019. We also compared incidence of MVCs for each zip code tabulation area (ZCTA) in Pennsylvania for the same time periods using geospatial mapping. RESULTS: Of 15,550 trauma patients treated during the SAH measures, 3486 (22.4%) resulted from MVCs. Compared to preceding years, MVC incidence decreased 10% under SAH measures with no change in mortality rate. However, in ZCTA where MVC incidence decreased, there was a 16% increase in MVC injury severity. CONCLUSIONS: Stay-at-home orders issued in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Pennsylvania were associated with significant changes in MVC incidence and severity. Identifying such changes may inform resource allocation decisions during future pandemics or SAH events.

Respiratory syncytial virus outbreak DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC. How has it changed?

INTRODUCTION: The epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection has changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our objectives were to describe the RSV epidemic in 2021 and compare it with the previous years to the pandemic. METHODS: Retrospective study performed in Madrid (Spain) in a large paediatric hospital comparing the epidemiology and clinical data of RSV admissions during 2021 and the two previous seasons. RESULTS: 899 children were admitted for RSV infection during the study period. During 2021, the outbreak peaked in June and the last cases were identified in July. Previous seasons were detected in autumn-winter. The number of admissions in 2021 was significantly lower than in previous seasons. There were no differences between seasons regarding age, sex or disease severity. CONCLUSION: RSV hospitalizations during 2021 in Spain moved to summer with no cases in autumn and winter 2020-2021. Unlike other countries, clinical data were similar between epidemics.

[Influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the epidemiology of acute Bronchiolitis.] / Influencia de la pandemia COVID-19 sobre la epidemiología de la bronquiolitis aguda.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the circulation of some viruses associated with acute bronchiolitis. We analyzed the epidemiology of bronchiolitis admissions during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with 8 previous epidemic seasons. METHODS: An observational and ambispective study was performed, including infants admitted with bronchiolitis in a tertiary hospital during 2 periods: COVID-19 pandemic (15th March 2020 to 3st August 2021) and pre-pandemic (1st September 2012 to 14th March 2020). Demographic, clinical data and etiologies were collected. RESULTS: Five hundred ten patients were hospitalized with bronchiolitis: 486 in the pre-pandemic period with an average of 61 admissions per season vs 24 during the pandemic, observing a 60.7% reduction in bronchiolitis admissions. During the pandemic, bronchiolitis outbreak was delayed until spring-summer 2021. Respiratory syncytial virus was the most frequent etiological agent in both periods. CONCLUSION: We observed a change in the seasonality of bronchiolitis during the pandemic COVID-19, possibly influenced by control measures against SARS-CoV-2.

Alcohol consumption and maxillofacial fractures in times of Covid-19: a cross-sectional study in a cuban university hospital / Consumo de alcohol y fracturas maxilofaciales en tiempos de Covid-19: un estudio transversal en un hospital universitario cubano

Introduction: The consumption of alcoholic beverages reduces the body's ability to deal with dangerous situations and exposes people to trauma. Objective: To determine the association between the consumption of alcoholic beverages and the characteristics of maxillofacial fractures treated at a Cuban university hospital in the context of COVID-19. Material and Methods: An observational, analytical, and cross-sectional study was carried out in the Maxillofacial Surgery unit at the "Carlos Manuel de Céspedes" General University Hospital during the year 2020. Prevalence ratios, 95% confidence intervals and p-values were obtained using generalized linear models. Results: In 58.23% of the cases, fractures were related to the consumption of alcoholic beverages. The fundamental etiology was interpersonal violence (47.75%), regardless of the consumption of alcoholic beverages. There was a prevalence of patients with nasal fractures (n=98; 55.06%), among which, 35.71% had consumed alcoholic beverages at the time of the trauma. Being male (p=0.005), the lack of university studies (p=0.007), the need for surgical treatment (p<0.001), the fractures of the zygomaticomaxillary complex (p=0.023), and the traumas that occurred during the weekends (p<0.001) or during the month of June (p=0.029) were factors associated with a higher frequency of fractures related to the consumption of alcoholic beverages. There was a lower frequency of fractures associated with alcohol consumption during the months of January (p=0.006) and March (p=0.001). Conclusion: Six out of ten cases were under the influence of alcoholic beverages. There was a greater number of young and male patients, mainly due to interpersonal violence.

Introducción: La ingestión de bebidas alcohólicas disminuye la capacidad del organismo para enfrentar situaciones de peligro y lo predispone a sufrir traumatismos diversos. Objetivo: Determinar la asociación entre el consumo de bebidas alcohólicas y las características de las fracturas maxilofaciales atendidas en un hospital universitario cubano en el contexto de la COVID-19. Material y Métodos: Estudio observacional, analítico y transversal realizado en el servicio de Cirugía Maxilofacial del Hospital General Universitario "Carlos Manuel de Céspedes" durante el 2020. Se obtuvieron razones de prevalencia, intervalos de confianza a 95% y valores p mediante modelos lineales generalizados. Resultados: En el 58.23% de los casos las fracturas se relacionaron con la ingestión de bebidas alcohólicas. La etiología fundamental fue la violencia interpersonal (47.75%), independientemente del consumo o no de bebidas alcohólicas. Predominaron los pacientes con fracturas nasales (n=98; 55.06%), en los que el 35.71% había consumido bebidas alcohólicas en el momento del trauma. El sexo masculino (p=0.005), la carencia de estudios universitarios (p=0.007), la necesidad de tratamiento quirúrgico (p<0.001), las fracturas del complejo cigomático-maxilar (p=0.023), los traumas sucedidos durante los fines de semanas (p<0.001) o durante el mes de junio (p=0.029) fueron factores asociados a una mayor frecuencia de fracturas relacionadas con el consumo de bebidas alcohólicas. Hubo menor frecuencia de fracturas asociadas a este consumo durante los meses de enero (p=0.006) y marzo (p= 0.001). Conclusión: Seis de cada diez casos estuvieron bajo los efectos de la ingestión de bebidas alcohólicas. Existió una mayor afectación de pacientes jóvenes, masculinos, a causa principalmente de la violencia interpersonal.

SARS-CoV-2 cross-sectional seroprevalence study among public school staff in Metro Vancouver after the first Omicron wave in British Columbia, Canada.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among school workers within the Greater Vancouver area, British Columbia, Canada, after the first Omicron wave. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study by online questionnaire, with blood serology testing. SETTING: Three main school districts (Vancouver, Richmond and Delta) in the Vancouver metropolitan area. PARTICIPANTS: Active school staff enrolled from January to April 2022, with serology testing between 27 January and 8 April 2022. Seroprevalence estimates were compared with data obtained from Canadian blood donors weighted over the same sampling period, age, sex and postal code distribution. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody testing results adjusted for test sensitivity and specificity, and regional variation across school districts using Bayesian models. RESULTS: Of 1850 school staff enrolled, 65.8% (1214/1845) reported close contact with a COVID-19 case outside the household. Of those close contacts, 51.5% (625/1214) were a student and 54.9% (666/1214) were a coworker. Cumulative incidence of COVID-19 positive testing by self-reported nucleic acid or rapid antigen testing since the beginning of the pandemic was 15.8% (291/1845). In a representative sample of 1620 school staff who completed serology testing (87.6%), the adjusted seroprevalence was 26.5% (95% CrI 23.9% to 29.3%), compared with 32.4% (95% CrI 30.6% to 34.5%) among 7164 blood donors. CONCLUSION: Despite frequent COVID-19 exposures reported, SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among school staff in this setting remained no greater than the community reference group. Results are consistent with the premise that many infections were acquired outside the school setting, even with Omicron.

Epidemiological and Clinical Characteristics of Measles in Jinan, Shandong Province, China, from 1991 to 2022.

Objective: This study aimed to analyze the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of measles in Jinan, Shandong, China, over a 32-year stage to facilitate measles prevention in the future. Methods: Data on measles cases from 1991 to 2022 were obtained from the public health department and medical records of patients at Shandong Public Health Clinical Center. Retrospective analysis was conducted on the distribution of measles cases in different years, months, and age groups, and observation of the differences in clinical manifestations and complications among different age groups. Results: From January 1991 to December 2022, 7531 measles cases were recorded at Shandong Public Health Clinical Center. During the 32-year period, there were two outbreaks of measles in 2008 and 2016, respectively. During the COVID-19 pandemic period from 2020 to 2022, the number of cases reached the lowest point in the past 30 years. The number and percentage of cases in the 0-1y groups was significantly higher than in other age groups, and 97.75% patients in this group did not receive measles vaccine. Complications such as pneumonia and myocarditis appeared more frequent in patients under 12 years of age, but liver function damage is more common in adult patients. Conclusion: Although the measles epidemic has been greatly controlled since the use of measles vaccine, intermittent outbreaks still exist, so there is still a long way to go to eliminate measles. The proportion of infants under the age of 1 without measles vaccine and adults over 24 years old accounts for nearly 80% of the total. This group of people should be of concern, and feasible measures should be designated to protect these susceptible populations.

Trends in Tuberculosis Mortality Across India: Improvements Despite the COVID-19 Pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had significant health implications across the globe. India is a country that has faced a double burden of COVID-19 and tuberculosis (TB) since 2020. There is a need to understand the impacts of COVID-19 on tuberculosis control programs in India. Therefore, our study aimed to determine the changes in TB mortality across India between 2019 and 2021. METHODS: In our study, we described trends in TB and COVID-19 cases reported across India. Next, we compared death totals for TB between 2019, 2020, and 2021 in India at the national and state level. We considered total TB deaths, as well as deaths by TB for tribal populations, and for those living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Percent changes were calculated. RESULTS: In 2020, compared to 2019, there was a 15.4% decrease in TB death totals, with 28 out of India's 36 states showing a decrease during this time period. While total deaths increased in 2021 compared to 2020, decreases did occur in 2021 compared to 2019. Deaths by TB for individuals living with HIV decreased by 16.0% across India. At a national level, there was a notable rise in TB deaths among tribal populations, though this was not universal across states. CONCLUSION: While the majority of the world has seen an increase in new TB cases and TB deaths annually since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, there have instead been decreases in India during this time period. More research is required to understand the factors that have led to this decrease in TB deaths. Furthermore, additional allocation of resources is required to better support vulnerable populations in states where TB death totals have increased, especially among tribal populations.

Wastewater early warning system for SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks and variants in a Coruña, Spain.

Wastewater-based epidemiology has been widely used as a cost-effective method for tracking the COVID-19 pandemic at the community level. Here we describe COVIDBENS, a wastewater surveillance program running from June 2020 to March 2022 in the wastewater treatment plant of Bens in A Coruña (Spain). The main goal of this work was to provide an effective early warning tool based in wastewater epidemiology to help in decision-making at both the social and public health levels. RT-qPCR procedures and Illumina sequencing were used to weekly monitor the viral load and to detect SARS-CoV-2 mutations in wastewater, respectively. In addition, own statistical models were applied to estimate the real number of infected people and the frequency of each emerging variant circulating in the community, which considerable improved the surveillance strategy. Our analysis detected 6 viral load waves in A Coruña with concentrations between 103 and 106 SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies/L. Our system was able to anticipate community outbreaks during the pandemic with 8-36 days in advance with respect to clinical reports and, to detect the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants in A Coruña such as Alpha (B.1.1.7), Delta (B.1.617.2), and Omicron (B.1.1.529 and BA.2) in wastewater with 42, 30, and 27 days, respectively, before the health system did. Data generated here helped local authorities and health managers to give a faster and more efficient response to the pandemic situation, and also allowed important industrial companies to adapt their production to each situation. The wastewater-based epidemiology program developed in our metropolitan area of A Coruña (Spain) during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic served as a powerful early warning system combining statistical models with mutations and viral load monitoring in wastewater over time.

Incorporating resilience when assessing pandemic risk in the Arctic: a case study of Alaska.

The discourse on vulnerability to COVID-19 or any other pandemic is about the susceptibility to the effects of disease outbreaks. Over time, vulnerability has been assessed through various indices calculated using a confluence of societal factors. However, categorising Arctic communities, without considering their socioeconomic, cultural and demographic uniqueness, into the high and low continuum of vulnerability using universal indicators will undoubtedly result in the underestimation of the communities' capacity to withstand and recover from pandemic exposure. By recognising vulnerability and resilience as two separate but interrelated dimensions, this study reviews the Arctic communities' ability to cope with pandemic risks. In particular, we have developed a pandemic vulnerability-resilience framework for Alaska to examine the potential community-level risks of COVID-19 or future pandemics. Based on the combined assessment of the vulnerability and resilience indices, we found that not all highly vulnerable census areas and boroughs had experienced COVID-19 epidemiological outcomes with similar severity. The more resilient a census area or borough is, the lower the cumulative death per 100 000 and case fatality ratio in that area. The insight that pandemic risks are the result of the interaction between vulnerability and resilience could help public officials and concerned parties to accurately identify the populations and communities at most risk or with the greatest need, which, in turn, helps in the efficient allocation of resources and services before, during and after a pandemic. A resilience-vulnerability-focused approach described in this paper can be applied to assess the potential effect of COVID-19 and similar future health crises in remote regions or regions with large Indigenous populations in other parts of the world.

Hospital-treated serious and invasive aspergillosis and candidiasis infections during the COVID-19 pandemic: a retrospective analysis of Hospital Episode Statistics data from England.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the impact of COVID-19 on the burden of hospital-treated Aspergillus and Candida infections in England. DESIGN: A retrospective study using Hospital Episodes Statistics data to estimate the burden of serious and invasive fungal infections (SIFIs) in all patients admitted in England during March 2018-February 2020 (pre-COVID-19) and during March 2020-October 2021 (the COVID-19 period). SETTING: Hospitals in England. POPULATION: All patients with codes corresponding to serious and invasive aspergillosis and candidiasis in any diagnosis position during their admission pre-COVID-19 and during the COVID-19 period. OUTCOME MEASURES: Age, spells, patient counts, mean length of stay, admission to critical care unit (CCU), length of stay in CCU, 30-day readmissions, failed discharges (readmission within 7 days) and comorbidities. RESULTS: During the COVID-19 period, hospitalisation spells with an invasive candidiasis code fell by 3.2% and spells with an aspergillosis code by 24.8%. Mean length of stay was higher for patients with aspergillosis with or without COVID-19 and candidiasis with or without COVID-19 during the pandemic than before the pandemic. During the pandemic, mean length of stay was higher for patients with aspergillosis with COVID-19 than those with aspergillosis alone but slightly lower for patients with candidiasis with COVID-19 than for those with candidiasis alone. Of patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19, 52.5% with aspergillosis and 60.0% with candidiasis were treated in CCU compared with 13.2% and 37.1%, respectively, without a COVID-19 diagnosis. The percentage of 30-day readmissions and failed discharges for patients with SIFI was higher for those with COVID-19 than for those without. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of aspergillosis and candidiasis has been affected by COVID-19. Aspergillosis diagnoses fell among hospitalised patients during the pandemic, while candidiasis continued to fluctuate in patterns similar to pre-COVID-19. A higher burden for patients with SIFI was observed, whether or not they also had a diagnosis of COVID-19. Our findings highlight extra considerations and burden on management of serious SIFI as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Molecular Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 during Five COVID-19 Waves and the Significance of Low-Frequency Lineages.

SARS-CoV-2 lineages and variants of concern (VOC) have gained more efficient transmission and immune evasion properties with time. We describe the circulation of VOCs in South Africa and the potential role of low-frequency lineages on the emergence of future lineages. Whole genome sequencing was performed on SARS-CoV-2 samples from South Africa. Sequences were analysed with Nextstrain pangolin tools and Stanford University Coronavirus Antiviral & Resistance Database. In 2020, 24 lineages were detected, with B.1 (3%; 8/278), B.1.1 (16%; 45/278), B.1.1.348 (3%; 8/278), B.1.1.52 (5%; 13/278), C.1 (13%; 37/278) and C.2 (2%; 6/278) circulating during the first wave. Beta emerged late in 2020, dominating the second wave of infection. B.1 and B.1.1 continued to circulate at low frequencies in 2021 and B.1.1 re-emerged in 2022. Beta was outcompeted by Delta in 2021, which was thereafter outcompeted by Omicron sub-lineages during the 4th and 5th waves in 2022. Several significant mutations identified in VOCs were also detected in low-frequency lineages, including S68F (E protein); I82T (M protein); P13L, R203K and G204R/K (N protein); R126S (ORF3a); P323L (RdRp); and N501Y, E484K, D614G, H655Y and N679K (S protein). Low-frequency variants, together with VOCs circulating, may lead to convergence and the emergence of future lineages that may increase transmissibility, infectivity and escape vaccine-induced or natural host immunity.

Prevalence of Antibodies to COVID-19 Due to Infection or Vaccination in US Adults.

OBJECTIVE: -Determine the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination in a population applying for life insurance. SETTING: -This is a cross-sectional study of 2584 US life insurance applicants, to determine the seroprevalence of antibodies to COVID-19. This convenience sample was selected on two consecutive days April 25-26, 2022. RESULTS: -For COVID-19, 97.3% are seropositive, and 63.9% have antibodies to nucleocapsid protein, a marker of prior infection. An additional, 33.7% have been vaccinated with no serologic evidence of infection. METHODOLOGY: -Serum and urine samples from a nationwide group of insurance applicants for routine risk assessment were collected. The examination of applicants typically occurs, in their homes, their place of employment, or a clinic. The paramedic exam occurs 7-14 days after the insurance application. Before the exam, an office assistant calls the applicant and inquires if they have been in contact with a person with SARS-CoV-2, been ill within the last 2 weeks, felt sick, or recently had a fever. If the applicant answers yes, the exam is rescheduled. Before sample collection, the applicant reads and signs a consent form to release medical information and testing. Next, the examiner records the applicant's blood pressure, height, and weight. Then, a blood and a urine sample are collected and sent with the consent form to our laboratory via Federal Express. On April 25-26, 2022, we tested 2584 convenience samples from adult insurance applicants for the presence of antibodies to nucleocapsid and spike proteins from SARS-CoV-2. As a standard practice, we reported the client-specified test profile results to our life insurance carriers. In contrast, the COVID-19 test results were only available to the authors. Patient and Public Involvement.-There was no patient involvement in study design, reporting of results, or journal publication selection. There was patient consent to publish de-identified study results. No public involvement occurred in the creation or completion of the study. The authors thank the participants in this study for approving the use of their blood samples to further society's understanding of the SARS-CoV-19 pandemic. Ethics Review.-Western Institutional Review Board reviewed the study design and determined it to be exempt under the Common Rule and applicable guidance. Therefore, it is exempt under 45 CFR § 46.104(d)(4) from using de-identified study samples for epidemiologic investigation, WIRB Work Order #1-1324846-1. In addition, all test subjects had signed a consent allowing research of their blood and urine samples with the removal of personally identifiable information. RESULTS: -The combined seroprevalence for antibodies to nucleocapsid, a marker of prior infection, and antibodies to spike protein, an indicator of either previous infection or vaccination, was 97.3%. Higher infection rates occur in younger vs older age groups, with a non-statistical difference for vaccinated and acquired natural immunity. For the age group 16-84, the total estimated seroprevalence of COVID-19 in the US is 249 million cases. CONCLUSIONS: -The US population has widespread immune resistance to current variants of COVID-19 due to prior infection or vaccination. The infectivity of new variants and silent disease, independent of previous infection or vaccination, are the driving force behind the sporadic increase in clinical SARS-CoV-2 cases.

Epidemiology of Primary and Recurrent Healthcare-Associated and Community-Associated Pediatric Clostridioides difficile Infection in Canada, 2015-2020.

Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) among children remains a concerning cause of morbidity in hospital settings. We present epidemiological and molecular trends in healthcare- and community-associated CDI among children in Canadian inpatient and outpatient settings, including those who experienced recurrent infections.

Prevalence of respiratory pathogens and risk of developing pneumonia under non-pharmaceutical interventions in Suzhou, China.

This study aims to evaluate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the prevalence of respiratory pathogens among hospitalised children with acute respiratory infections (ARIs) in Suzhou. Children with ARIs admitted to the Children's Hospital of Soochow University between 1 September 2021 and 31 December 2022 and subjected to 13 respiratory pathogen multiplex PCR assays were included in the study. We retrospectively collected demographic details, results of respiratory pathogen panel tests, and discharge diagnostic information of the participants, and described the age and seasonal distribution of respiratory pathogens and risk factors for developing pneumonia. A total of 10,396 children <16 years of age, including 5,905 males and 4,491 females, were part of the study. The positive rates of the 11 respiratory pathogen assays were 23.3% (human rhinovirus (HRV)), 15.9% (human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV)), 10.5% (human metapneumovirus (HMPV)), 10.3% (human parainfluenza virus (HPIV)), 8.6% (mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP)), 5.8% (Boca), 3.5% (influenza A (InfA)), 2.9% (influenza B (InfB)), 2.7% (human coronavirus (HCOV)), 2.0% (adenovirus (ADV)), and 0.5% (Ch), respectively. Bocavirus and HPIV detection peaked during the period from September to November (autumn), and MP and HMPV peaked in the months of November and December. The peak of InfA detection was found to be in summer (July and August), whereas the InfB peak was observed to be in winter (December, January, and February). HRSV and HRV predominated in the <3 years age group. HRV and HMPV were common in the 3-6 years group, whereas MP was predominant in the ≥6 years group. MP (odds ratio (OR): 70.068, 95%CI: 32.665-150.298, P < 0.01), HMPV (OR: 6.493, 95%CI: 4.802-8.780, P < 0.01), Boca (OR: 3.300, 95%CI: 2.186-4.980, P < 0.01), and HRSV (OR: 2.649, 95%CI: 2.089-3.358, P < 0.01) infections were more likely to develop into pneumonia than the other pathogens. With the use of NPIs, HRV was the most common pathogen in children with ARIs, and MP was more likely to progress to pneumonia than other pathogens.

Spatio-temporal dynamic of the COVID-19 epidemic and the impact of imported cases in Rwanda.

INTRODUCTION: Africa was threatened by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to the limited health care infrastructure. Rwanda has consistently used non-pharmaceutical strategies, such as lockdown, curfew, and enforcement of prevention measures to control the spread of COVID-19. Despite the mitigation measures taken, the country has faced a series of outbreaks in 2020 and 2021. In this paper, we investigate the nature of epidemic phenomena in Rwanda and the impact of imported cases on the spread of COVID-19 using endemic-epidemic spatio-temporal models. Our study provides a framework for understanding the dynamics of the epidemic in Rwanda and monitoring its phenomena to inform public health decision-makers for timely and targeted interventions. RESULTS: The findings provide insights into the effects of lockdown and imported infections in Rwanda's COVID-19 outbreaks. The findings showed that imported infections are dominated by locally transmitted cases. The high incidence was predominant in urban areas and at the borders of Rwanda with its neighboring countries. The inter-district spread of COVID-19 was very limited due to mitigation measures taken in Rwanda. CONCLUSION: The study recommends using evidence-based decisions in the management of epidemics and integrating statistical models in the analytics component of the health information system.