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1.
SSRN;
Preprint in English | SSRN | ID: ppcovidwho-346202

ABSTRACT

We examine the structure, recent and expected performance, and fiscal implications of the local lodging tax. Lodging taxes have become a uniquely important and interesting local revenue source as the pandemic has restructured many long-standing assumptions about the relationship between place and economic activity. We find that recent hotel revenue performance—a key proxy for lodging tax revenues—varies considerably across regions. Markets focused primarily on leisure travel have recovered to and often exceeded their pre-pandemic levels, where markets focused on commercial travel have generally not returned to their pre-pandemic levels. We show that this leisure vs. commercial market distinction is also a strong predictor of hotel revenue recovery since the pandemic. Local lodging taxes are a comparatively small share of general local revenues, but have noteworthy local fiscal implications nonetheless. In many jurisdictions they are equivalent to more than one-quarter of total non-property tax revenues. We also find that lodging taxes support roughly $14 billion in outstanding municipal debt, including several large bond issues in markets where lodging tax revenues have recovered slowly.

2.
International Economics ; 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2069171

ABSTRACT

This paper empirically analyses fiscal policy behavior in the European Union (EU) Member States and assesses how it has changed during the recent pandemic crisis compared to previous crisis periods. Based on panel estimations, we find that the fiscal reaction has been different this time, both concerning the policy direction as well as its magnitude. We argue that fiscal policy has turned from formally pro-cyclical design prior to COVID-19 period to counter-cyclical in the pandemic years, on average. While this is naturally driven by the wide roll-out of fiscal support measures during the pandemic, including health care expenditures and spending on job security, the change in the fiscal reaction function is still visible if these effects are taken away from the budget, even though the move is less pronounced and signifies a change from a pro-cyclical to an a-cyclical fiscal regime.

3.
SSRN; 2022.
Preprint in English | SSRN | ID: ppcovidwho-344254

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we analyze the impacts of COVID-19 and the policy response to it in Korea based on a version of a Macro-SIR model with labor friction, and with multiple types of jobs and households. Due to substantial uncertainty in the model and parameters that govern the interaction between epidemiological and macroeconomic developments, we rely on a prior predictive analysis when simulating the model. We nd that the model successfully predicts an endogenous rise in the number of con rmed cases in the second half of 2020, and a sharp decline in economic activity followed by a temporary recovery caused by the government transfer program. It also turns out that low-wealth households are more damaged from the pandemic due to larger losses in terms of labor income. In addition, it is shown that the consumption multiplier of the universal transfer program is around 0.09.

4.
Economic Change and Restructuring ; 55(4):2215-2235, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2059925

ABSTRACT

This study seeks to evaluate the efficacy of macroeconomic revamping policies operationalized after the pandemic by fiscal and monetary regulators to fight the pandemic in China. This study aims to assess what the Chinese economic recovery implies after the pandemic regarding economic expansion and energy consumption of different economies utilizing an econometric approximation relying on data throughout the COVID-19 phase. Within the extended stage, Chinese economic development spillover impacts attain the same effect on upper-middle-income nations' economic expansion of 0.18 percent, next to the economic development, of lower-middle-income countries of 0.15 percent and high-income nations. We discover proofs of robust direct provincial spillovers, implying that provinces tend to construct a cluster of high-performing and low-performing areas, a procedure that accentuates regional earnings variances. Applying the experience of revamping previous financial crisis, we replicate the impact of the pandemic on the competence of these, and by far, other upper limit income nations to build back better from the pandemic to jobs occasioned by proofs of the pandemic. The spillover impact of China’s economic revival past the pandemic phase's carries a critical effect on the expansion in energy consumption in high-income nations, subsequently middle-income nations. As total factor productivity headwinds underpin economic growth, fiscal policy is the only policy that probably sustains the pollution intensities and concurrently advances household well-being regarding consumption and jobs.

5.
Current Issues and Empirical Studies in Public Finance ; : 11-33, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2057795

ABSTRACT

This study investigated the dimensions of health financing needs arising in Turkey due to the COVID-19 crisis. It was explained what kind of fiscal policy should be implemented to strengthen the health systems with increasing financing needs. The study's main purpose is to investigate how the health system financing in Turkey can benefit from fiscal policies to meet the cost of the COVID-19 crisis on health systems. In this context, in the first part of the study, after a short introduction about the importance of the subject in the second part, the economic effects of the COVID-19 crisis and the course of health expenditures were investigated. It has been observed that developing countries lag behind in overcoming the effects of the crisis due to their own structural problems. The crisis has brought up the need to increase the expenditures for health financing worldwide. Turkey has the lowest rate among OECD countries in terms of GDP ratio of health expenditures with 4.4 %. The third part has been researched how the financing of health services in Turkey is provided. The most important sources of financing are taxes, social security premiums, private insurance premiums, and out-of-pocket payments. In the research, it has been observed that this deficit, which the Social Security System has given deficit since the 1990s in Turkey, is covered by the financial transfer from the budget. The share allocated to the Ministry of Health from the central government budget for the last four years is nearly only 5 %. In the fourth chapter, in this case, the designs that governments can make on how to strengthen the health system with taxes, public expenditures, and subsidies using fiscal policy are explained. Examples of fiscal policies for health are taxes on tobacco, tobacco products, and alcohol, subsidies on certain food products, and tax incentives for health care purchases. © 2022 Peter Lang AG. All rights reserved.

6.
Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research ; 56(3):87-100, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2056868

ABSTRACT

This paper uses text mining to model 21,403 Chinese news items related to the free treatment of the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and constructs China’s free treatment policy index, which overcomes the difficulty a short data time span poses to in-depth analysis on the economic impact of public health emergencies. In addition, the causal network model is selected to study 52 listed companies in the health industry to test whether there is market failure in the field of public health and the effect of intervention measures. The study found that if the government only relies on market regulation and monetary policy (such as interest rate policy and exchange rate policy), market failure will emerge in the public health sector, yielding an increase in the number of infected people. Therefore, on the basis of market self-regulation, the government should use not only monetary policy but also free treatment policy to make up for the market failure in the public health sector, control the spread of COVID-19 and promote the development of the health industry. © 2022, Bucharest University of Economic Studies. All rights reserved.

7.
Journal of Globalization and Development ; 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2054451

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a massive increase in global debt levels and exacerbated the trade-offs between the benefits and costs of accumulating government debt. This paper examines these trade-offs by putting the recent debt boom into a historical context. It reports three major findings. First, during the 2020 global recession, both global government and private debt levels rose to record highs, and at their fastest single-year pace, in five decades. Second, the debt-financed, massive fiscal support programs implemented during the pandemic supported activity and illustrated the benefits of accumulating debt. However, as the recovery gains traction, the balance of benefits and costs of debt accumulation could increasingly tilt toward costs. Third, more than two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies are currently in government debt booms. On average, the current booms have already lasted three years longer, and are accompanied by a considerably larger fiscal deterioration, than earlier booms. About half of the earlier debt booms were associated with financial crises in emerging market and developing economies. © 2022 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston 2022.

8.
Journal of Globalization and Development ; 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2054447

ABSTRACT

In 2009, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reformed its lending arrangements and conditionality. Thereafter, it has pursued "parsimony,"emphasizing headline fiscal adjustments rather than detailed budgetary changes. This paper analyzes the extent to which these reforms have resulted in changes to the overall austerity required by IMF agreements. We create a new variable measuring the level of fiscal consolidation required in each IMF program from 2001 through 2021 the IMF Fiscal Adjustment Indicator (IMF FAI). We explore whether IMF austerity eased after the financial crisis and the later COVID-19 pandemic. We also estimate the economic and political determinants that help explain varying levels of IMF austerity across IMF programs during this period. We find that IMF conditions were less austere for the years of 2009 and 2020, but quickly returned to their previous levels, echoing the IMF's advice to "keep the receipts"during crises. However, these temporary relaxations were not statistically significant, pointing to overarching continuity. We find that countries that were granted relatively more lenient conditionality were found to be those with closer relations with major shareholders of the IMF: Western Europe and the United States. In contrast, countries with close diplomatic relations with China face higher IMF austerity. © 2022 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston 2022.

9.
Gender and Development ; 30(1-2):283-309, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2050960

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the dynamics and implications of gendered austerity in Ecuador in the context of the fiscal consolidation framework recommended in the country's International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programme, through three channels. First, that of the public health sector and the experiences of women public health workers. Second, that of unpaid care work and significant augmentations in home-based health care of family members as well as education support. And third, increases in consumer debt incurred by women through extractive short-term lenders. To illustrate the lived experiences of women, interviews were conducted with a leader of a nurses' union in the capital city of Quito and results collected from external published focus group surveys with women engaged in unpaid and paid care work as well as in community savings organizations. Two key theoretical frameworks are employed within feminist political economy. First, the social provisioning approach, where economic activity encompasses unpaid and paid work, human well-being is the yardstick of economic success, and power inequities, agency and economic outcomes are shaped by gender. Second, the literature on gender, care work and. © 2022 Oxfam KEDV.

10.
Working Paper - Groupe de Recherche en Economie et Developpement International (GREDI) 2020. (20-10):34 pp. 30 ref. ; 2020.
Article in French | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-2045283

ABSTRACT

We examine the effects of fiscal policy on the Quebec territory using data from Q1-1981 to Q1-2020. To do so, we estimate VAR models and extract government spending shocks according to the sign restriction method proposed by Uhlig (2005). The impulse responses of real GDP, household consumption, private non-residential investment, and the household confidence index to a temporary and positive government spending shock are all significantly positive in the short run. We find high multipliers for total government spending shocks-they are above 2 in the short run, while government investment spending is above 3.5 and shows greater persistence. The possible consequences of the pandemic and the stimulus package on Quebec's debt trajectory complete the analysis. Lastly, government investment spending is the best way to get the economy going and even lower the debt ratio to meet the goals for 2026.

11.
African Journal of Economic and Management Studies ; 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2042680

ABSTRACT

Purpose This study examined the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19-induced economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in Nigeria. The study considered the effects of three related shocks: EPU, COVID-19 and correlated economic policy uncertainty and COVID-19 shock. Design/methodology/approach First, the study presented VAR evidence that fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty depresses real output. Thereafter, a nonlinear DSGE model with second-moment fiscal and monetary policy shocks was solved using the third-order Taylor approximation method. Findings The authors found that EPU shock is negligible and expansionary. By contrast, COVID-19 shocks have strong contractionary effects on the economy. The combined shocks capturing the COVID-19-induced EPU shock were ultimately recessionary after an initial expansionary effect. The implication is that the COVID-19 pandemic-induced EPU adversely impacted macroeconomic outcomes in Nigeria in a non-trivial manner. Practical implications The result shows the importance of policies to cushion the effect of uncertain fiscal and monetary policy path in the aftermath of COVID-19. Originality/value The originality of the paper lies in examining the impact of COVID-19 induced EPU in the context of a developing economy using the DSGE methodology.

12.
Public Sector Economics ; 46(3):321-354, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2039651

ABSTRACT

The Croatian authorities’ response to the pandemic crisis was considerably greater in size and scope than their reaction to the 2008-09 global financial crisis. This paper aims to identify the main factors that allowed the authorities to respond so ambitiously this time. In particular, the paper explains how solid macroeconomic fundamentals backed by a steady inflow of EU funds enabled the Croatian government and the Croatian National Bank to take bold steps to restore stability in key financial markets and provide liquidity support to the economy without compromising currency stability and fiscal sustainability. In addition, as an EU member state, Croatia was in a position to benefit from a currency swap line with the ECB, as well as from the EU’s common recovery facility, which reduced concerns about the pandemic- induced rise in government debt. Finally, the paper identifies some positive external factors that were beneficial for all emerging market economies. © 2022, Public Sector Economics. All rights reserved.

13.
Studia Universitatis Babes-Bolyai ; 67(2):1-20, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2039623

ABSTRACT

Fiscal policy has been used by various governments to promote economic growth. The effectiveness of government expenditure on economic growth depends on recipient sector of government expenditure. This study contributes to this research area by investigating the effect of government agricultural expenditure on economic growth in the Kingdom of Lesotho. The government of Lesotho identified the agricultural sector as a productive sector that is central to the achievement the economic growth goal and development plan. Descriptive statistics and inferential econometric techniques (ARDL, DOLS and VEC Granger causality) over time-series data for the period 1982-2019 were utilized in this study. The results suggest that while current level and pattern of government agriculture expenditure cannot stimulate the desired economic growth and prosperity in the country, domestic investment appear to be a stimulant of the desired economic prosperity. Consequently, any economic growth policy or strategy that is premised on government agricultural sector expenditure would fail. Thus study recommends that countries including Lesotho should prioritize sustained increase in domestic investment.

14.
International Journal of Development Issues ; 21(3):347-366, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2037669

ABSTRACT

Purpose>This study aims to explore the sustainability of Jamaica’s public debt over a highly volatile period of time.Design/methodology/approach>The authors use a suite of econometric tools, including, unit root testing, cointegration testing and estimating a fiscal reaction function. The authors control for structural breaks in the regression analysis.Findings>The authors find that whilst reschedulings might be indicative of cash-flow problems in Jamaica, fiscal policy has responded effectively to increase the public debt, thereby making the debt sustainable. Notwithstanding the political economy and social demands of the population prior to the impact of the pandemic, the implications of higher debt stocks (higher debt-servicing and lower social expenditures) might make this approach to fiscal policy and debt management infeasible. As a result, the authors recommend that the government will need to take an active approach in managing its debt position to facilitate responses to shocks and provide conditions within which maintaining fiscal discipline is feasible.Originality/value>To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to explore fiscal sustainability in Jamaica over this time period whilst taking into consideration structural breaks caused by the global financial crisis and debt restructurings. The authors also take into consideration variables such as exchange rates and the occurrence of elections, which have not been included in previous studies.

15.
International Economics ; 172:77-90, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2031364

ABSTRACT

This paper analyses the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on stock market returns and their volatility in the case of the G20 countries. In contrast to the existing empirical literature, which typically focuses only on either Covid-19 deaths or lockdown policies, our analysis is based on a comprehensive dynamic panel model accounting for the effects of both the epidemiological situation and restrictive measures as well as of fiscal and monetary responses;moreover, instead of Covid-19 deaths it uses a far more sophisticated Covid-19 index based on a Balanced Worth (BW) methodology, and it also takes into account heterogeneity by providing additional estimates for the G7 and the remaining countries (non-G7) separately. We find that the stock markets of the G7 are affected negatively by government restrictions more than the Covid-19 pandemic itself. By contrast, in the non-G7 countries both variables have a negative impact. Further, lockdowns during periods with particularly severe Covid-19 conditions decrease returns in the non-G7 countries whilst increase volatility in the G7 ones. Fiscal and monetary policy (the latter measured by the shadow short rate) have positive and negative effects, respectively, on the stock markets of the G7 countries but not of non-G7 ones. In brief, our evidence suggests that restrictions and other policy measures play a more important role in the G7 countries whilst the Covid-19 pandemic itself is a key determinant in the case the non-G7 stock markets.

16.
Independent Journal of Management and Production ; 13(3):s310-s328, 2022.
Article in English | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-2025736

ABSTRACT

The article reveals the importance of state financial regulation as one of the most important tools for economic growth and ensuring the competitiveness of industries and the economy of Ukraine. The studies of domestic and foreign scientists on the subject of research are analyzed in detail. The state of enterprises of the agricultural sector of Ukraine for the period 2013- 2020 has been determined. The study was carried out on the factors of providing agricultural producers with financial resources in terms of the size of the forms of management. The share of unprofitable enterprises in the industry for the same period is also analyzed. The achievements of the agricultural sector are described according to the statistical analysis of the state of socio-economic development of the regions in the period 2020-2021. The methodology for monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of the implementation of the state regional policy in accordance with legislative regulations is described. This made it possible to establish that at the present stage, the financial regulation of the agricultural sector of Ukraine is carried out without proper scientific justification and, as a rule, responds slowly to the requirements of economic practice, especially in the context of deepening the penetration of global processes into the national economy. Approaches to the assessment of the competitive environment of the agrarian sector of Ukraine and the direction of its state regulation are proposed. Theoretical, methodological, and practical aspects of assessing the competitiveness of the sector are disclosed. The necessity and possibility of forming a competitive environment by fiscal policy measures, primarily budgetary regulation, is proved. The problems of forming a competitive environment in the context of the current crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the place of Ukraine in the world competitiveness ranking are identified, and methodological approaches to the development strategy are proposed. It is proved that the competitive strategy is based on the existing resources of the industry (material, financial and intellectual), the level of development of various forms of management, the structure of production, marketing, processing, the formation of value chains and a bilateral state-market regulator. The directions for improving the quality of the competitive environment, arising from the paradigm of innovative development of the agricultural sector, are summarized and provide for the stimulation of small business in niche and organic production and large-scale industrial production in terms of the main indicators of food security, as well as the development of land, financial, credit and resource markets and the formation of equal access to them all agricultural producers.

17.
Sustainability ; 14(16):10431, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2024165

ABSTRACT

This study analyzes the dynamics between public expenditure and economic growth in Peru for 1980Q1–2021Q4. We used quarterly time series of real GDP, public consumption expenditure, public expenditure, and the share of public expenditure to output. The variables were transformed into natural logarithms, wherein only the logarithm of public expenditure to output ratio is stationary and the others are non-stationary I1. The study of stationary time series assesses whether Wagner’s law, the Keynesian hypothesis, the feedback hypothesis, or the neutrality hypothesis is valid for the Peruvian case according to Granger causality. We found cointegration between real GDP and public expenditure, and public consumption expenditure and real GDP. Estimating error correction and autoregressive distributed lag models, we concluded that Wagner’s law and the Keynesian hypothesis are valid in the Peruvian case, expressed as dynamic processes that allow us to obtain short-run and long-run impacts, permitting the mutual sustainability of economic growth and public expenditure.

18.
Laws ; 11(4):57, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2023858

ABSTRACT

The unprecedented expansion of the digital economy has increased the intricacy of mobilising tax revenues from both domestic and international transactions. Tax evasion and avoidance are perpetuated by the invisible nature of digital transactions. To minimise the untapped revenues, countries all over the world are mapping policy strategies on how to collect revenue from this sector. African countries are not an exception. They have constructed digital tax policies to levy both direct and indirect taxes on digital transactions. This paper focuses on direct digital service taxes (DSTs). Direct digital service taxes have been an issue of debate among governments, policy makers, academics, tax bodies, and development organisations. Disagreements coalesce around their structure, their adherence to the canons of taxation, opportunities, and challenges as well as consequences of implementing them. Through a literature review, this paper assesses the legislative structure and administration of digital service taxes in relation to the canons of taxation. The findings of the review were conflicting. While certain aspects, motives, and possible outcomes of the taxes upheld the principles of taxation, some of these were conflicting with the principles. This could possibly be linked to variations in the economic, political, and social contexts in African countries and between developed and developing countries. The study recommends that while digital service taxes are an irrefutable necessity to tap tax revenues from the digital economy, African countries should ensure that equity, neutrality, economy, and efficiency among other principles are considered and balanced with the fundamental roles of tax policy.

19.
Journal of Risk and Financial Management ; 15(8):338, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2023841

ABSTRACT

We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the pandemic and then fell about half-way back to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021. Second, and in contrast, the 1-month VIX, a Twitter-based Economic Uncertainty Index, and macro forecaster disagreement all rose sharply in reaction to the pandemic but retrenched almost completely by mid-2021. Third, Categorical Policy Uncertainty Indexes highlight the changing sources of uncertainty—from healthcare and fiscal policy uncertainty in spring 2020 to elevated uncertainty around monetary policy and national security as of May 2022. Fourth, firm-level risk perceptions skewed heavily to the downside in spring 2020 but shifted rapidly to the upside from fall 2020 onwards. Perceived upside uncertainty remains highly elevated as of early 2022. Fifth, our survey evidence suggests that elevated uncertainty is exerting only mild restraint on capital investment plans for 2022 and 2023, perhaps because perceived risks are so skewed to the upside.

20.
European Politics and Society ; 23(4):548-562, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2017546

ABSTRACT

Many economists argue that fiscal balance (i.e. preventing fiscal deficits and establishing rules for government lending) positively affects the growth rate. Several studies document a strong correlation between these two variables based on the Ricardian equivalence theorem and the crowding-out effect. It may be argued that high growth rates lead to a positive fiscal balance, while lower/negative growth rates lead to deficits (but not vice versa). This study examines this cause-and-effect relationship via a sample of four EU countries that have been affected by the economic crisis. Specifically, a Granger causality analysis captures the linear interdependencies among multiple time series to determine the causal relation between the budget deficit and the GDP growth rates for Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. The results show that no clear rule governs the cause-and-effect relationship between the GDP growth rates and net government lending rates (as a percentage of GDP). Moreover, the literature supports the idea that fiscal improvement may lead to economic growth, while improving net government lending leads to an increase in the GDP growth rate. This study suggests some useful fiscal policies to apply during a crisis. Also, investigating government lending can be useful in a post-COVID-19 economic environment.

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