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1.
Economic Modelling ; : 105984, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1966522

ABSTRACT

This study examines a unit root process in lower-bounded time series with additive outliers. A standard unbounded unit root test may be unsuitable when applied to nonnegative or lower-bounded data;therefore, lower-bounded unit root tests that handle outliers are proposed. The results demonstrate that these tests reject less frequently the null hypothesis of unit root because of a nuisance parameter associated with the lower bound. The empirical study of inflation and stock market volatility in South America reveals the presence of outliers related to the hyperinflation crisis and stock markets owing to multiple shocks, such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, these series cannot reject the unit root hypothesis if the lower bound is considered.

2.
Economic Alternatives ; 28(2):252-263, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1965154

ABSTRACT

This study explores market timing and stock selection by investment managers during the Covid-19 in Indonesia. By applying several sample criteria to the population of mutual funds registered at OJK, we found 55 stock mutual funds using the purposive sampling. We processed data using the STATA16 computer program. The Treynor-Mazuy conditional inflation and exchange rate model, according to the findings of this study, can show that market timing and stock selection for mutual fund managers have a positive and significant impact on improving the performance of equity fund portfolios during the pandemic in Indonesia. In Indonesia, there are 5 equities mutual funds having positive or market timing skills, accounting for 9.09 percent of all equity mutual funds, whereas the remaining 90.91 percent do not. The positive coefficient of the gamma variable shows that the investment manager’s ability to market time is expected to result in higher stock mutual fund returns. Positive or stock selectivity characteristics are available in 45 equity mutual funds, or 81.18 percent. The contribution of this study focuses on exchange rate and inflation. However, there needs to be a relevant follow-up comparison before the pandemic occurs. In addition, it is necessary to consider other elements in the macro-economy. © 2022, University of National and World Economy. All rights reserved.

3.
Webology ; 19(1):2341-2356, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1964722

ABSTRACT

Monetary coordination and macroeconomic stability are increasingly critical for domestic and fiscal policy in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. This research investigates the impact of monetary policy on financial and economic stability following the COVID-19 pandemic's economic lockdown. This article utilized a V.A.R. (Vector Autoregressive Models) estimator for time series data models. Quarterly statistics are gathered from the first quarter of 2004 to the first quarter of 2018. Using a V.A.R. model, the study investigates the causal connections between monetary policy instruments and economic stability. The findings suggest that Iraq's monetary policy is most efficient at maintaining a target growth rate for the money supply while simultaneously controlling inflation through an equalization cap (1.8 percent). Due to the rentier structure of the Iraqi economy, the money supply had a negligible influence. Monetary authorities must monetize oil earnings in order to finance public spending. Finally, an appropriate framework for monetary management must be created that ensures monetary independence and supremacy remain unimpaired. The findings give a thorough knowledge of the links between national monetary policies and economic stability, which can eventually aid in developing nations' formulation of good monetary and fiscal policies.

5.
Webology ; 19(2):9350-9362, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1957813

ABSTRACT

Role of money demand occupies a central place in regulating the monetary management of the economy and a topic of keen interest among researchers and academics (Sichei & Kamau, 2012). Growing money demand ensures an upsurge in the economic activity and vice versa. The present study analyzes the money demand function in Pakistan. The ARDL method to co-integration is used on data ranged between 1972 and 2018. The results showed that statistically significant effects of all main hypothesized factors including number of bank branches, population growth rate and agricultural output are found positive, negative and negative, respectively, both in the short-run and long- run. Whereas the effect of traditional factors viz., income and inflation rate on money demand appeared as positive, and statistically significant. The broad money demand function appeared to be stable in Pakistan. Policy to be focused on certain factors is discussed.

6.
Voprosy Ekonomiki ; 2022(5):5-25, 2022.
Article in Russian | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1955504

ABSTRACT

The inflation dynamics is a key factor in macroeconomic and social stability, having a direct impact on all structural proportions in the economy and the well-being of the population. This is especially noticeable during periods of acute shocks and crises. This article is an attempt to understand the inflationary consequences of the recent non-economic crisis associated with the coronavirus pandemic. The global nature of this crisis, as well as its impact on all sectors of the economy and spheres of economic relations, provide rich material for the analysis. The geo¬political aggravation and large-scale sanctions against Russia in 2022 have become a new shock for the entire economic system, creatinga trail of new inflationary effects at the global level and especially within Russia. The presence of a sig¬nificant number of similarities between the two crises retains the relevance of a rigorous analysis of the coronacrisis and its lessons, despite the radical change in the situation due to the onset of the sanctions crisis. © 2022, Russian Presidental Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. All rights reserved.

7.
Finance Research Letters ; : 103166, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1936443

ABSTRACT

Given the lack of activity in China's offline economy during the COVID-19 quarantine period, online prices provide new insights for analyzing the impacts of the pandemic on the economy. Using online prices from 107 websites in China and the DiD method to remove the Spring Festival effect, we show that the pandemic leads to a 0.4% surge in the overall inflation rate, a 20% decrease in the price change probability, and a 1% decline in the size of absolute price changes. Moreover, the pandemic had heterogeneous impacts on different sectors, leading to significant structural changes in inflation. Specifically, the pandemic hindered the price correction behavior after Spring Festival, and whether products could be consumed while customers stayed at home was an important factor affecting price adjustment and inflation dynamics.

8.
ENERGIES ; 15(13), 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1938742

ABSTRACT

It is generally known that violent oil price volatility will cause market panic;however, the extent to which is worthy of empirical test. Firstly, this paper employs the TVP-VAR model to analyze the time-varying impacts of oil price volatility on the panic index using monthly data from January 1990 to November 2021. Then, after using the SVAR model to decompose the oil price volatility, this paper uses the PDL model to analyze the heterogeneous impacts of oil price volatility from different sources. Finally, based on the results of oil decomposition, this paper uses the TARCH model to analyze the asymmetric impacts of oil price volatility in different directions. The results show that: (1) oil price volatility can indeed cause market panic, and these impacts exhibit time-varying characteristics;(2) oil price volatility from different sources has different impacts on the panic index, and the order from high to low is oil-specific demand shocks, supply shocks, and aggregate demand shocks;and (3) oil price volatility has asymmetric impacts on the panic index, and positive shocks have greater impacts than negative.

9.
Journal of Economic Surveys ; 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1937966

ABSTRACT

We survey approaches to macroeconomic forecasting during the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the unprecedented nature of the episode, there was greater dependence on information outside the econometric model, captured through either adjustments to the model or additional data. The transparency and flexibility of assumptions were especially important for interpreting real-time forecasts and updating forecasts as new data were observed. We revisit these themes with a time-varying parameter (TVP) vector autoregression (VAR), which attributes the large jumps primarily to increased volatility rather than changes in the type or propagation of shocks.

11.
Economic Affairs ; 42(2):288-306, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1932437

ABSTRACT

For most of the period since China started to reform and open its economy, falling goods prices in developed economies have been offset by rising service prices, but as a result of the COVID‐19 pandemic these relative price trends have been temporarily reversed. Separately from these relative price changes, the 2021–22 episode of inflation reflects broad money growth rates in many economies around the world since the start of the pandemic. The economies that are predicted to experience the greatest increase in inflation are those where monetary growth has increased most relative to the requirements to finance normal economic growth and the normal increase in demand for money balances (the inverse of income velocity).

12.
American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine ; 205(1), 2022.
Article in English | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-1927866

ABSTRACT

Rationale: COVID-19 has inspired numerous studies on ventilated induced lung injury (VILI). To investigate the strains stimulating lung damage, animal lungs are often used as surrogate models for scarce human specimens. Such studies are restricted to bulk pressure and volume investigations instead of examining regional, real-time, and evolutionary pulmonary behavior offered by digital image correlation (DIC) techniques. Here we subject porcine lungs and a human lung case study to shared global loads and compare local strain distributions as yielded by DIC to assess the applicability of animal models to represent human pulmonary mechanics. Methods: One anonymized human cadaveric lung (854g) and four comparable sized Yorkshire Farm pig lungs (784-1218g) were tested ex vivo within 36hrs postmortem (no IACUC or IRB approval required). Specimens were ventilated at 15 breaths per minute to 675, 900 and 1350ml (6, 8, and 12mL/kg) using a recently established custom-designed electromechanical breathing apparatus interfaced with high resolution and high speed DIC cameras. Lungs were preloaded to 5cmH20 and preconditioned three times for reproducibility. The resulting local deformations associated with global ventilation loads were analyzed throughout the inflation cycle. Results: Similar peak inflation pressures were observed between human and porcine specimens (21-35 and 21±2 - 26±2cmH20 respectively) for the shared applied volumes. Despite comparable global mechanics, the topological strain distributions of human lungs were relatively reduced: when the applied global volume was doubled from 675 to 1350ml, the local averaged strain across the specimen surface increased from 19 to 28%, while porcine strains showed a greater increase from 21±4 to 42±4%. Also from 675 to 1350ml, the human lung surface strains were prominently homogenous with a range of 43 to 58%, compared to the observed heterogeneous porcine strain contours, quantified with a range of 92±15 to 124±24%. The maximum strain values of the human lung were also smaller than porcine specimens (58 versus 106±17%). Conclusion: Collateral ventilation and respective monopodial versus bipodial bronchial networks may explain the discrepancies noted between porcine and human lung strains. While a single human lung specimen is statistically inconclusive, pairing new DIC applications with conventional global metrics offers the ability to characterize the localized strain distribution of the breathing lung and evaluate the anisotropic and heterogenous deformation profiles correlated with VILI, previously uncharacterized to date. These results have implications for understanding the role of amplified strains in translational animal to human lung studies.

13.
VUZF Review ; 7(2):17-24, 2022.
Article in Bulgarian | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1925019

ABSTRACT

The article describes the measures taken by the central banks of the world's largest economies to combat high inflation. The authors give a definition of what exactly is considered high inflation, analyze the timeliness and effectiveness of taking anti-inflationary measures, and also answer the question of the need for the monetary authorities to react to inflation, which does not have an obvious monetary nature. In the article the particular attention is paid to the difference between the anti-inflationary policy of central banks in developed and emerging markets, as well as to the issues of coordination between the actions of the central bank and the government in the field of anti-inflationary policy. The authors point out the importance of increasing the efficiency of the transmission mechanism through the development of various segments of the financial market, including the derivatives market. As a result of the study, a hypothesis is put forward that there is a direct relationship between the development of the financial market, especially the capital market, and the costs of fighting inflation. Countries with less developed capital markets and smaller gold and foreign exchange reserves are forced to use the key rate of central banks to fight inflation, paying with their economic growth potential for the opportunity to have low inflation. The article also makes a fundamental conclusion that the risk of inflation has acquired global features, however has not yet affected all countries, bypassing those markets that traditionally struggled with the deflation factor, and their central banks had negative rates. As well, the article pays attention to the dependence of the foreign exchange rate on the difference between the levels of interest rates, and makes assumptions about the possibility of manipulating the foreign exchange rate through delaying anti-inflationary measures in order to stimulate exports.

14.
Ekonometri ve Istatistik Dergisi ; - (36):1-21, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1924928

ABSTRACT

This paper examines whether the causal relationship between the health care price index and the real exchange rate index is temporary or permanent. To do this, we first apply the Toda- Yamamoto causality test with a structural break and then continue with frequency domain causality tests based on the Toda-Yamamoto causality test with a structural break. The results of the Toda- Yamamoto causality test with a structural break indicates that there is causality running from the real exchange rate index to the health care price index. Moreover, the frequency domain causality test results based on the Toda-Yamamoto causality test with a structural break provide evidence that the real effective exchange rate causes temporarily (in the short-and medium term) to the health care price index. The effect of the real exchange rate index on the health care price index lasts between 2 months and 8.37 months. These findings imply that there is a significant exchange rate pass-through in health care inflation in the short-and medium term. Thus, the health authorities should take into account these findings when planning health care policies in Turkey, especially health care services heavily dependent on imported materials.

15.
Zbornik Radova Ekonomski Fakultet u Rijeka ; 40(1):29-61, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1924803

ABSTRACT

This research aims to provide an empirical assessment of the relationship between fiscal policy sustainability factors, like fiscal deficit and economic growth in the Western Balkan countries and East European Union Countries, using panel-level data for the yearly time span from 2000-2021. The empirical model provides the impact of fiscal deficit, alongside other control variables like inflation, schooling, total investments, trade openness, and output gap on economic growth in the selected group of countries. For the purpose of research, we employed Static and dynamic panel estimation techniques like Fixed Effects with Driscol and Kraay standard errors and system GMM. The findings confirm that fiscal deficit has significantly affected the growth level in both groups of countries. In addition, when the fiscal deficit has interacted with the COVID-19 dummy, it appears as a growth-enhancing factor. However, when the fiscal deficit interacts with the Eurozone debt crisis period, it becomes a growth-deteriorating factor. Other control variables like inflation, trade openness, total investments, and the output gap are found important factors in explaining the growth performance of the Central East European and Western Balkan countries.Alternate :Ovo istraživanje ima za cilj utvrditi empirijsku procjenu odnosa izmeðu čimbenika održivosti fiskalne politike, poput fiskalnog deficita i gospodarskog rasta u zemljama zapadnog Balkana i zemljama Istočne Europske unije koristeći panel baze podataka za godišnji vremenski raspon od 2000. do 2021. godine. Empirijski model istražuje utjecaj fiskalnog deficita, uz ostale kontrolne varijable poput inflacije, školovanja, ukupnih ulaganja, otvorenosti trgovine i proizvodnog jaza na gospodarski rast u odabranoj skupini zemalja. Za potrebe istraživanja koristili smo statičku i dinamičku panel procjenu tehnike poput fiksnih učinaka s Driscol i Kraay standardnim greškama i sustav GMM. Nalazi potvrðuju da je fiskalni deficit značajno utjecao na razinu rasta u obje skupine zemalja. Osim toga, kada se fiskalne varijable dovedu u interakciju s COVID-19 dummy varijablama, fiskalni deficit rezultira značajnim i pozitivnim učinkom na gospodarski rast. Meðutim, kada je fiskalni deficit u interakciji s razdobljem dužničke krize u Euro-zoni, on postaje čimbenik koji pogoršava rast. Ostale kontrolne varijable poput inflacije, otvorenosti trgovine, ukupnih ulaganja i proizvodnog jaza smatraju se važnim čimbenicima u objašnjavanju uspješnost rasta zemalja srednje i istočne Europe i zapadnog Balkana.

16.
Economics and Philosophy ; 38(2):315-320, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1921526

ABSTRACT

The book is well-written, well-structured (if a bit repetitive), and, surprisingly, even entertaining. [...]taken with a pinch of salt, it might even disabuse its less knowledgeable readers of some basic misunderstandings about public finance. [...]Kelton approvingly quotes former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, who during a 2005 congressional hearing on the financial sustainability of the US Social Security system, responded to Former House Representative Paul Ryan’s worry about the Social Security system becoming insolvent by saying that ‘there’s nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody’ (182). According to MMT, those limits are primarily a function of the economy’s capacity to put the newly issued money to productive use. According to MMT, the point of taxing or borrowing is not to collect revenues to finance government spending (after all the government could ‘print’ all the money it needs).

17.
National Institute Economic Review ; 259, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1921506

ABSTRACT

Despite forecasting GDP growth in 2021 and 2022 a bit weaker than we previously thought, our forecast for the world economy is still for an expansion of 5.7 per cent in 2021 and 4.2 in 2022 (Figure 1), marginally lower than our Autumn Outlook. Growth of the world economy is set to slow down further, to 3.5 per cent in 2023, with risks skewed to the downside due to the virus and supply chain disruptions. We estimate that the pandemic will result in the level of global GDP being about 3 per cent of GDP lower in 2025 than our pre-pandemic expectation, with the cumulative loss up to 2025 amounting to around $28 trillion. 

18.
Journal of Financial Planning ; 35(7):25, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1918591

ABSTRACT

People keep seeing news about inflation in the headlines. It is higher than it's been in over 40 years. And some people are very concerned about that. One particular group that is changing plans are soon-to-be retirees. During the first couple years of the pandemic, 2.4 million more people retired than expected, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Reasons ranged from losing their jobs to deciding they didn't want to risk contracting COVID-19 to caring for other family members. But now there's a new player in town that is causing almost the opposite effect. As of the time of writing, inflation is at 8.3 percent. That is down from 8.5 percent in March, but that is still higher than it's been in decades. Cummings and his wife often eat spaghetti, and they have seen the prices of spaghetti sauce going up by more than a dollar in the last couple of months. If inflation were only limited to spaghetti sauce, things wouldn't be so bad, but prices are up across the board.

19.
Value in Health ; 25(7):S406-S407, 2022.
Article in English | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-1914750

ABSTRACT

Objectives: Catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF) was a novel treatment in 1998. Today, ablations are commonplace and compete with rate/rhythm drugs as first-line therapies. While some ablations are performed as outpatient procedures, many require an overnight hospital stay. Ablations are expensive because they require substantial human and material resources as well as hospital facilities that are subject to inflationary pressures. The aim of this research is to compare hospital charges for catheter ablations performed in the State of Maryland during three consecutive calendar years prior to Covid. Methods: Retrospective analysis of inpatient and outpatient data from 2017, 2018, and 2019 was performed to determine the stability of hospital charges or the amount of change year to year. Charges account for all resources consumed, medical and surgical, in association with any ablation procedure for any form of AF – paroxysmal, persistent, long-term persistent, or permanent. Results: Median charges for ablations performed during a hospital visit without an overnight stay (outpatient) remained steady from year to year – $31,511 (2017), $31,520 (2018), $32,392 (2019). Median charges for an ablation performed during a hospital visit with at least one overnight stay (inpatient) were $47,793 (2017), $48,673 (2018), and $56,670 (2019), reflecting cost stability between 2017 and 2018 but a 15% increase, 2019 versus 2018. Patients undergoing a second ablation within one year were considered to have a repeat ablation. Repeat ablation rates increased from 7.3% to 9.2% for inpatient procedures and from 8.4% to 9.8% for outpatient procedures between 2017 and 2018. Repeat ablation charges covered by private payers were higher than those covered by Medicare. Conclusions: Inpatient charges for catheter ablations are rising in Maryland and so is the re-ablation rate. Cost-containment measures, improvements in ablation procedures and skills, as well as advances in electrophysiology technologies are needed to improve cost-efficiencies.

20.
Cybern Syst Anal ; : 1-10, 2021 Nov 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1906190

ABSTRACT

Empirical targeting by lowering inflation to the marginal level that causes monetary deflation and transition to depression is shown to increase the growth of the real GDP, while increasing inflation from the marginal level reduces the growth of the real GDP. The inflation is determined according to the theory of reproduction of the national economy by the mathematical function of the amount of money in circulation, foreign currency cash, interest rate, the cost of the utilized in production capital, the production input-output coefficient, and the unemployment rate. A model for regulating the economy by inflation targeting is developed, which allows the Central Bank of Ukraine to determine the target indicators for the period under consideration based on the statistical indicators of the previous period and through the nomogram of the inflation function of its arguments. The growth of the Ukrainian economy was modeled with an inflation target of four percent in 2021-2023 after the recession in 2020 caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

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