Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Show: 20 | 50 | 100
Results 1 - 20 de 33
Filter
1.
Sustainability ; 14(19):12864, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2066471

ABSTRACT

The agricultural futures market plays an extremely important role in price discovery, hedging risks, integrating agricultural markets and promoting agricultural economic growth. China is the largest apple producer and consumer in the world. In 2017, Chinese apple futures were listed on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (CZCE) as the first fruit futures contract globally. This paper aims to study the efficiency of the apple futures market by using the Wild Bootstrapping Variance Ratio model to estimate the price discovery function, the ARIMA-GARCH model to estimate the risk-hedging function, and the ARDL-ECM model to estimate the cointegration relationship of the futures and spot market. Experimental results firstly demonstrate that the apple futures market conforms to the weak-form efficiency, which indicates that it is efficient in price discovery. Secondly, the apple futures market is not of semi-strong efficiency because it generated abnormal profit margins amid China–US trade friction, climate disaster, and COVID-19;in terms of the degree of impact, the COVID-19 pandemic had the greatest impact, followed by the rainstorm disaster and trade friction. Thirdly, the results of this study indicate that the cointegration relationships exist between the futures market and the spot markets of the main producing areas. This paper is not only conducive to sustainable development of the global fresh or fruit futures market, but also has potential and practical importance for China in developing the agricultural futures market, strengthening market risk management and promoting market circulation.

2.
Resour Policy ; 79: 103055, 2022 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2061819

ABSTRACT

Jumps in commodity prices can make asset risk management challenging. This study explores the influence feature of the COVID-19 epidemic on China's commodity price jumps, using 5-min intraday high-frequency futures data of three China's commodity markets (energy, chemical, and metal) from January 23, 2020 to June 10, 2022. We find that firstly the information spillover from the COVID-19 spread situation to China's energy price jumps is relatively weak, and the COVID-19 epidemic shows the most substantial jump information spillover pattern to China's chemical price. The information spillover pattern is time-varying across the COVID-19 spread situation phase. Secondly, there are co-movement patterns between China's commodity price and China/global COVID-19 confirmed cases. This co-movement feature mainly occurs at the medium- or long-run time scales, and varies across commodities. Thirdly, the demand elasticity for China's commodities and its dependence on imports and exports are the main factors influencing the sensitivity of its price jumps to the COVID-19 outbreak.

3.
Mathematics ; 10(17):3155, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2023887

ABSTRACT

As global public health events and regional conflicts have greater influence on supply chains nowadays, supplier default in procurement becomes more and more common in practice. However, there is less research on portfolio procurement purchasing decisions in the case of fixed-term contract supplier default. This paper focuses on the optimal purchasing decision of buyers by using a combination of fixed-term contracts and spot transactions, which is a beneficial extension of the classical newsvendor model. When supplier default is not considered, the optimal purchase quantity in the fixed-term contract is first obtained, which maximizes the buyer’s expected profits. Research shows that supplier default has an important impact on the optimal purchasing decision making in portfolio procurement. The optimal purchase quantity of the buyer in the fixed-term contract decreases with the increase in the default rate of the contract supplier, which implies that the default from the contract supplier inhibits a larger purchase quantity in the fixed-term contract. In addition, it is proved that the buyer’s expected profits from portfolio procurement increases with the decrease in the contract supplier’s default rate. Finally, numerical experiments and sensitivity analysis are conducted to prove the result, and some management opinions on the optimal decision-making in portfolio procurement with fixed-term contracts and spot transactions are put forward.

4.
Agriculture ; 12(8):1245, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2023054

ABSTRACT

Cotton plays an important role in China’s agricultural production structure and international trade;therefore, China has implemented a variety of cotton subsidy policies. Since China joined the WTO in 2001, WTO rules have become substantive constraints on its agricultural subsidy policy. Therefore, in order to prevent appeal cases of China’s cotton subsidy, in this article, we investigate the current situation and optimization countermeasures with respect to China’s cotton subsidies based on WTO rules. According to calculation of the level of China’s cotton subsidy support under WTO rules, it currently exceeds 8.5% of the cotton production value. Secondly, we estimate the change in cotton subsidy effect when the support level of China’s cotton subsidy policy is directly reduced to 8.5%;the results show that such a reduction would have a considerable impact on the production scale. However, due to the constraints of the political and economic goals of cotton subsidies, the Chinese government can only “box shift” subsidies by changing the subsidy method and object in order to comply with WTO rules. Finally, from the perspective of how to use cotton subsidies to improve the efficiency of production factors, the Chinese government should focus on optimizing the cotton subsidy policy according to three aspects: improving the Amber Box subsidies, expanding the Green Box subsidies and increasing the Blue Box subsidies so as to maintain the existing level of cotton subsidy support.

5.
Business Excellence ; 16(1):33-54, 2022.
Article in English | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-1994822

ABSTRACT

Pricing management is part of farm management with the purpose of increasing profitability and competitiveness. It is based on the production cost and purchase price which difference affects to the financial result. The aim of this research is to identify milk price volatility at the Croatian and EU level, international trade, as well as to identify trends for the period from 2016 to 2020 and to simulate changes for the next period from 2021 to 2025. The analyzed data were taken from the Eurostat and processed using time and harmonized index. Milk production in the EU-27 for 2020 is 23 mil. tons of milk and averages 65 kilograms milk consumption per capita. The lowest average production price of milk in the analyzed period at the EU-27 level was in 2016 (28 per 100 kg of milk) and in following years it is up to 35 per 100 kg. The market situation reflects the consequence of the abolition of quotas in the dairy industry (2015) and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In period from 2021 to 2025, a slight growth and slowdown in milk production of 2.83% compared to 2020 and an increase in the average producer milk prices in 2025 by 9.6% compared to 2020 are projected. This research contributes to identifying the sources of difficulties in managing prices. The guidelines have been developed for more efficient price management in order to improve the competitiveness and market positioning.

6.
CoRe ; 6(2):108-119, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1964929

ABSTRACT

Companies under investigation for anticompetitive behaviour in breach of the competition rules face heavy fines, high legal costs, loss of future profits and reputational damage. In addition, listed companies also seem to (temporarily) experience negative shocks in their stock market value. This article provides a descriptive analysis of the impact of the European Commission’s press release, announcing an antitrust investigation, on the stock market performance of the companies involved. Furthermore, we discuss the influence of the press release covering the Commission’s decision and accompanying fine. Reviewing four cases for each of these two moments, we conclude that an antitrust investigation or fine can be linked to a substantial negative shock to the stock market value of the companies concerned. While the drop is sizeable and thus clearly visible for almost all companies, the effect also seems to be relatively short-lived. Interestingly, the effects mostly seem more pronounced for the announcement of the investigation than for the fine, with some cases barely showing an effect of the latter. This could indicate that the stock market already accounts for the full effects around the time of the initial announcement. Keywords: antitrust;cartel investigation;impact assessment;stock market performance

7.
Global Oils & Fats: Business Magazine ; 18(4):28-32, 2021.
Article in English | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-1958437

ABSTRACT

This article looks at the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global palm oil market as well as the post-pandemic outlook for the market. It is indicated that, in the long-term, the post-pandemic outlook for the palm oil industry remains bright. Since the last quarter of 2019, palm oil supply and demand are back in balance, while stocks are declining. Prices have been relatively high for most of 2020 and 2021. Also discussed are the proven benefits of palm oil and the opportunity of the palm oil sector to achieve UN goals.

8.
Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia ; 10(1):159-168, 2022.
Article in Indonesian | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-1934942

ABSTRACT

The pandemic Covid-19 has impacted global economy, including Indonesia. In response to dealing with the spread of Covid-19 cases, Indonesian government has imposed social restrictions which directly impacts people's economic activities including food sector. Considering rice as the main food product for most Indonesian people, this study aimed to analyze the transmission of rice prices from the producer level to the consumer level during the Covid-19 pandemic. Price transmission describes the impact of changes in the price of an item at one market level on changes in the price of the item at another market level. The data used is daily time series data from March 2020 to March 2021. The data analyzed using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach. The VAR estimation results show that producer prices and consumer prices do not affect each other. The absence of price transmission between producers and consumers may indicate that government intervention to maintain rice prices during the Covid-19 pandemic has been effective.

9.
Q Rev Econ Finance ; 86: 118-123, 2022 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1914946

ABSTRACT

This paper analyses the possible effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the degree of persistence of US monthly stock prices and bond yields using fractional integration techniques. The model is estimated first over the period January 1966-December 2020 and then a recursive approach is taken to examine whether or not persistence has changed during the following pandemic period (up to February 2021). We find that the unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected for stock prices while for bond yields the results differ depending on the maturity date and the specification of the error term. In general, bond yields appear to be more persistent, although there is evidence of mean reversion in case of 1-year yields under the assumption of autocorrelated errors. The recursive analysis shows no impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the persistence of stock prices, whilst there is an increase in the case of both 10- and 1- year bond yields but not of their spread.

10.
Water ; 14(12):1924, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1911740

ABSTRACT

The present study analyzes the market access of the biggest fish market at Chattogram coastal region of Bangladesh affected by COVID-19. The food chain was reduced locally, regionally, and globally as supply chains were disturbed and international seafood exports were halted for a certain period. For data collection several qualitative data collection tools, such as individual interviews as well as secondary document analysis were employed. To realize the overarching aim of this research the whole market system was analyzed including the supplier, wholesaler, retailer, as well as the consumer of the domestic market in the Chattogram district. The result shows that the pandemic slowed the supply and demand in the domestic fish market, and as a consequence the price of fish was distinctly reduced in the whole market system. The result highlights that the most affected stages of the supply chains are the supply quantity, the interval of the supply, and the quantity of fish sales. Furthermore, the principally affected stages of the demand chains are consumer demand and alternation in the preference of the consumer. To overcome such situation, this study recommends governmental financial support to trades to ensure the smooth flow of the supply and demand and create an alternative market system for the consumer. The pandemic and the measures to address the pandemic have created significant new challenges for market access and controlling pricing in domestic markets. Regularly engage of the policymakers are thus the prerequisite to overcome the compensation of trades and ensure food security in this sector.

11.
Veterinary Practitioner ; 22(2):165-171, 2021.
Article in English | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-1905059

ABSTRACT

An attempt was made to analyze the impact of seasonal changes, disease scare situations and festivals on the prices of broilers across India. Prices of broilers were collected for the period from 2017 to 2021 from the various secondary sources like Karnataka Poultry Farmers and Breeders Association (KPFBA), TS AP Broiler Co-Ordination Committee (TSAPBCC), Poultry Bazaar etc. The seasonal index analysis for the last 10 years data revealed that the average broiler prices had grown significantly from 2011 to 2014, later prices gradually declined in 2015 due to the outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) in the month of February, 2015. Prices bounced back and increased from 2016 to 2019. Again there was decline of prices in the middle of January 2020 due to outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) and Covid-19 pandemic. The prices of broilers have been recovering and gradually increasing since March, 2021 onwards. The consumption of chicken during winter season is high and this led to high prices in the market. Whereas the demand for chicken during hot climate months of March, April and May become slack in all the market centers of India resulting lowest price for chicken. Also, the increased demand on account of festivals viz., Christmas and New Year attributed to the rise in prices in the months of November and December.

12.
Turkish Journal of Agriculture Food Science and Technology ; 10(4):549-554, 2022.
Article in English | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-1893608

ABSTRACT

The new coronavirus, emerged in Wuhan, China in December 2019, turned into a major global pandemic and has caused many deaths around the world. Covid-19 pandemic has adversely affected every aspect from economy, education to health system. During Covid-19 pandemic, access to foodstuffs has become even more important, and some countries have imposed restrictions on exports of basic food items for fear of food shortages. These restrictions and quotas are feared to disrupt the flows of trade for staple foods such as wheat, corn and rice, which has deepened the concerns for food security. This study was conducted to examine the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on wheat price, production and trade and to review the policies of wheat exporter countries. According to the results of the study, Covid-19 did not cause fear in wheat markets, and no shortages of wheat are expected in the short term. Although countries have reduced the measures they have taken as of May, uncertainties regarding food safety still persist for the coming years. World economies have shrunk significantly as a result of the drastic measures they have taken against covid-19, which could worsen the situation for low income households.

13.
Studies in Economics and Finance ; 39(4):722-734, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1891384

ABSTRACT

Purpose>This study aims to analyze the impact of the crude oil market on the Toronto Stock Exchange Index (TSX).Design/methodology/approach>The focus is on detecting nonlinear relationship based on monthly data from 1970 to 2021 using Markov-switching vector auto regression (VAR) model.Findings>The results indicate that TSX return contains two regimes: positive return (Regime 1), when growth rate of stock index is positive;and negative return (Regime 2), when growth rate of stock index is negative. Moreover, Regime 1 is more volatile than Regime 2. The findings also show the crude oil market has a negative effect on the stock market in Regime 1, while it has a positive effect on the stock market in Regime 2. In addition, the authors can see this effect in Regime 1 more significantly in comparison to Regime 2. Furthermore, two-period lag of oil price decreases stock return in Regime 1, while it increases stock return in Regime 2.Originality/value>This study aims to address the effect of oil market fluctuation on TSX index using Markov-switching approach and capture the nonlinearities between them. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study to assess the effect of the oil market on TSX in different regimes using Markov-switching VAR model. Because Canada is the sixth-largest producer and exporter of oil in the world as well as the TSX as the Canada’s main stock exchange is the tenth-largest stock exchange in the world by market capitalization, this paper’s framework to analyze a nonlinear relationship between oil market and the stock market of Canada helps stock market players like policymakers, institutional investors and private investors to get a better understanding of the real world.

14.
2nd IEEE International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, ICAI 2022 ; : 140-146, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1878954

ABSTRACT

Predicting the Covid-19 spread and its impact on the stock market is an important research challenge these days. In order to obtain the best forecasting model, we have exploited neuro-evolutionary technique Cartesian genetic programming evolved artificial neural network (CGPANN) based solution to predict the future cases of COVID-19 up to 6-days in advance. This helps authorities and paramedical staff to take precautionary measures on time which helps in counteracting the spreading of the virus. The rising number of COVID cases has caused a significant impact on the stock market. CGPANN being the best performer for the time series prediction model seems ideal for the case under consideration. The proposed model achieved an accuracy as high as 98% predicting COVID-19 cases for the next six days. When compared with other contemporary models CGPANN seems to perform well ahead in terms of accuracy. © 2022 IEEE.

15.
Eurasian Journal of Business and Management ; 10(1):19-26, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1876243

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to investigate overreaction and underreaction from the six main sectors in the Johannesburg stock exchange due to the significant impact of Covid-19 on economic activities and financial markets globally. Using a Threshold GARCH model, the findings revealed the presence of overreaction mostly in the healthcare, industrial and telecom sector. However, very few stocks in the banking and tech portrayed overreaction while none of the stocks in the consumer goods sector revealed the presence of overreaction or underreaction because the coefficient of the leverage term was statistically insignificant. From these findings, there is a high risk of investing in healthcare, industrial and telecom stocks, which is not compensated by additional returns. Investors can minimize risk in this sectors by adding healthcare, industrial and telecom stocks in a well- diversified portfolio and assigning a risk coefficient to their pricing. This study adds to the body of knowledge on market anomalies by looking at overreaction and underreaction during the coivid-19 pandemic, which is an important concept in behavioral finance. This study is significant to market participants that are willing to trade on the Johannesburg stock exchange as it provides valuable insights on behavioral pattern and anomalies.

16.
16th Annual IEEE International Systems Conference, SysCon 2022 ; 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1874340

ABSTRACT

The stock market is one of the most important investment opportunities for small and large investors. Stock market fluctuations provide opportunities and risks for investors. However, some fluctuations are considered as enormous threats for most investors;significantly when the stock market has fallen sharply due to external factors and does not reach its previous point in a long time. For example, at the beginning of 2020, financial market indices, especially the stock market, fell sharply due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and for a long time, the indices did not grow significantly. Many investors suffered huge losses during this period. Although much research has been done in stock market forecasting and very efficient models have been proposed so far, no special effort has been made to build a model resistant to the collapse of financial markets. We propose a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-based ensemble model that is highly resilient to the stock market crash, especially at the beginning of the COVID-19 period. The proposed model not only avoids losing money in financial crises but can bring significant returns to investors. Experimental results show that the ensemble CNN models using Gramian Angular Fields (GAF) has greatly improved the resistance of the model in critical market conditions. © 2022 IEEE.

17.
6th International Conference on Computational Intelligence in Data Mining, ICCIDM 2021 ; 281:433-443, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1872355

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 has impacted the world unlike any other world event in our recent memory. Entire humanity has been afflicted by this pandemic. As a consequence of the pandemic, the governments around the world have decided to impose lockdowns restricting economic interactions and relationships in a scale and form which has not been witnessed by the modern man ever in his memory. The general assumption here is that growing COVID-19 patient and mortality counts give rise to a greater sense of uncertainty, and this greatly impacts the prices. It is imperative thus for both the researcher community to observe and investigate the influence of COVID-19 patient and mortality counts on geopolitical and economic index indicators as well as the influence of these COVID-19 indicators upon important economic indicators such as the gold price as well as stock market prices. For this specific purpose, this work investigates the influence of COVID-19 patient and monthly death counts on the economic indicators of gold and stock market prices. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

18.
Energies ; 15(10):3510, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1870852

ABSTRACT

There has always been a complex relationship between uncertainty and crude oil prices. Three types of uncertainty, i.e., economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk uncertainty, and climate policy uncertainty (EPU, GPR, and CPU for short), have exacerbated abnormal fluctuations in the energy market, making crude oil prices volatile more and more frequently, especially from the perspective of the financial attribute of crude oil. Based on the time-series data related to uncertainties and crude oil prices from December 2001 to March 2021, this paper uses the quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) method to explore the overall impact of various uncertainties on crude oil prices. Moreover, this paper adopts the QQR method based on the wavelet transform to investigate the heterogeneous effects of various uncertainties on crude oil prices at different time scales. The following conclusions are obtained. First, there are significant differences in the overall impact of the three types of uncertainties on crude oil prices, and this heterogeneity is reflected in quantiles of the peak impact intensity, the impact direction, and the fluctuation change. Second, the impact intensities of the three types of uncertainties on crude oil prices are significantly different at different time scales. This is mainly reflected in the different periods of significant impact of the three uncertainties on crude oil prices. Third, the impact directions and fluctuations of the three types of uncertainties on crude oil prices are heterogeneous at different time scales.

19.
Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development ; 22(1):443-456, 2022.
Article in English | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-1864032

ABSTRACT

Poor market integration affects market liberalization and handling of shocks such as covid-19. This study, therefore, investigates the market integration of tomato and its determinants in Nigeria. Johansen co-integration techniques, autoregressive distributed lag, the error correction model, bootstrapping regression and granger causality test were used to achieve the objectives of the study. The results revealed that most tomato markets in Nigeria were not integrated. This shows that tomato prices in most markets in different regions of Nigeria were not well integrated which could affect the transmission of price. From the Granger causality test results, ten tomato producing states Granger caused the demanding states, while only two demanding states granger caused the producing states. The adjustment term (-0.849924) shows that the reversion to long-run equilibrium is at an adjustment speed of 84.9924%. Distance, population and self-sufficiency had a negative influence on tomato market integration while the telephone had a positive influence on tomato market integration. Thus, the distance between two markets, population and self-sufficiency inhibits the flow and transmission of price information among tomato markets across the country which, in turn, lower market integration. The presence of telephone in Nigerian markets enhanced the flow of price information from one market to others and consequently increase market integration. These findings call for upgrading and investing in infrastructure, such as roads, and regulating information and telephone services by the government.

20.
CARD Agricultural Policy Review ; 2021.
Article in English | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-1824577

ABSTRACT

This article shows how the agricultural commodity markets and the land market have gained noticeable strength since fall 2020 due to COVID-19. Record government support, historically low interest rates, and surging agricultural exports led to a near-10% hike in farmland values for almost all Midwestern states. The two most recent quarterly surveys on farmland values of agricultural lenders by the Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City and Chicago are presented in this paper. Moreover, the surging crop and land prices offer optimism to landowners, producers, and agricultural professionals, and once again proves the resiliency of agricultural real estate values. The estimates from an online survey on land value trends and crop prices for corn and soybean in Iowa were provided. Overall, agricultural professionals expect a continuation of the growth spree in farmland values in their local service areas over the next 18 months.

SELECTION OF CITATIONS
SEARCH DETAIL