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1.
Clinical Cancer Research ; 27(6 SUPPL 1), 2021.
Article in English | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-1816893

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this research is to provide evidence-based natural therapies and foods that will enhance the immune system to fight the virus SARS CoV-2 and cancer. Minority populations that include Black African Americans and Hispanics are experiencing higher mortality rates due to both socioeconomic and lifestyle factors in the US and globally. Successful lessons learned from controlling previous 1918 pandemic flu will be discussed. Hypotheses: We hypothesize that targeting lifestyle factors such as diet, exercise, and hydrothermal therapy that enhance the immune system can effectively control and reduce the risk to COVID-19 disease and cancer simultaneously. The target cells for the SARS CoV-2 virus contain the ACE2 and TMPRSS2 receptors which serve as portals of entry. They are expressed throughout the body including the nose, lungs, heart, bladder, pancreas, kidneys and brain found on the epithelial and vascular tissue cells of these organs. Covid-19 affects multiple organs in the body and disrupts the innate immune system, especially the natural killer cells, monocytes, and neutrophils. Studies have shown that countries where BCG was used have less than 10% of COVID-19 cases and countries that do not use the BCG vaccine such as the US and Italy had high cases. It was also seen that people who had higher natural killer cell activity had 100% survival rates. Enhancing the innate immune system through natural therapies has shown to enhance immune cells to fight COVID-19 as well as cancer and destroy it. Methodology: Our research is exploratory and is based on recently published literature on COVID-19 diseases. The following databases were searched: CINAHL, Web of Science, PubMed, EBSCOHost, Google Scholar, Academic Search Complete, AccessMedicine, MedlinePlus, Nutrition Care Manuel, JSTOR and Publons. Results: During the Spanish flu pandemic death rates of those who received the best medical care was 6.7% compared with those who received hydrotherapy at 1.34%. Hydrotherapy will increase the body temperature and stimulate the activity of the immune cells, which can kill the viruses. Increasing the body temperature to 39.5 degrees centigrade was shown to kill the virus. Following the hot water bath with cold treatment was shown to be even more effective. Many foods have been found to enhance the immune system and to fight the flu virus. Foods such as blueberries, garlic, and probiotics were shown to improve natural killer activity. Vitamin C, Vitamin D, Zinc, and selenium play a role in immunity. Foods rich in antioxidants such as kale, blueberries, red bell peppers, and all citrus fruits also help enhance the immune system. During the 1918 flu pandemic that received hydrotherapy and other natural remedies, out of the 120 students and staff exposed, there were 90 patients, none very sick, and there were no deaths. Natural remedies used in the Spanish flu pandemic and should be instituted to help enhance immunity and lessen the deadly impact of COVID-19 cancer patients.

2.
Journal of Economic Literature ; 60(1):85-131, 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1759809

ABSTRACT

We discuss and review literature on the macroeconomic effects of epidemics and pan-demics since the late twentieth century. First, we cover the role of health in driv -ing economic growth and well-being and discuss standard frameworks for assessing the economic burden of infectious diseases. Second, we sketch a general theoretical framework to evaluate the trade-offs policy makers must consider when addressing infectious diseases and their macroeconomic repercussions. In so doing, we emphasize the dependence of economic consequences on (i) disease characteristics;(ii) inequal-ities among individuals in terms of susceptibility, preferences, and income;and (iii) cross-country heterogeneities in terms of their institutional and macroeconomic environments. Third, we study pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical policies aimed at mitigating and preventing infectious diseases and their macroeconomic repercus-sions. Fourth, we discuss the health toll and economic impacts of five infectious dis-eases: HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, influenza, and COVID-19. Although major epidemics and pandemics can take an enormous human toll and impose a staggering economic burden, early and targeted health and economic policy interventions can often mitigate both to a substantial degree. (JEL E20, H50, I12, I14, I15, I18, J17)

3.
Non-conventional in English | National Technical Information Service, Grey literature | ID: grc-753584

ABSTRACT

The Department of Defense (DOD) needs to re-institutionalize horizon scanning for strategic shock and integrate this perspective into its strategy, plans, and risk assessment. Defense-relevant strategic shocks are disruptive, transformational events for DOD. Though their precise origin and nature are uncertain, strategic shocks often emerge from clear trends. Shocks are often recognized in advance on some level but are nonetheless shocking because they are largely ignored.

4.
Open Forum Infectious Diseases ; 8(SUPPL 1):S757-S758, 2021.
Article in English | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-1746294

ABSTRACT

Background. Acute respiratory tract infections (ARIs) are a significant cause of morbidity in adults. Influenza is associated with about 490,600 hospitalizations and 34,200 deaths in the US in the 2018-2019 season. The burden of rhinovirus among adults hospitalized with ARI is less well known. We compared the burden of influenza and rhinovirus from 2 consecutive winter respiratory viral seasons in hospitalized adults and healthy controls pre-COVID-19 and one season mid-COVID-19 to determine the impact of rhinovirus as a pathogen. Methods. From Oct 2018 to Apr 2021, prospective surveillance of adults ≥50 years old admitted with ARI or COPD/CHF exacerbations at any age was conducted at two Atlanta hospitals. Adults were eligible if they lived within an eightcounty region around Atlanta and if their symptom duration was < 14 days. In the seasons from Oct 2018 to Mar 2020, asymptomatic adults ≥50 years old were enrolled as controls. Standard of care test results were included and those enrolled contributed nasopharyngeal swabs that were tested for respiratory pathogens using BioFire® FilmArray® Respiratory Viral Panel (RVP). Results. During the first two seasons, 1566 hospitalized adults were enrolled. Rhinovirus was detected in 7.5% (118) and influenza was detected in 7.7% (121). Rhinovirus was also detected in 2.2% of 466 healthy adult controls while influenza was detected in 0%. During Season 3, the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, influenza declined to 0% of ARI hospitalizations. Rhinovirus also declined (p=0.01) but still accounted for 5.1% of all ARIs screened (Figure 1). Rhinovirus was detected at a greater rate in Season 3 than in asymptomatic controls in the first 2 seasons (p=0.008). In the first two seasons, Influenza was detected in 8.6% (24/276) of those admitted to the ICU. Rhinovirus was detected in 6.1% (17/276) of those admitted to the ICU but declined to 3.1% (8/258) in Season 3. Conclusion. Dramatic declines occurred in influenza in adults hospitalized with ARI, CHF, or COPD in Atlanta during the COVID-19 pandemic and with enhanced public health measures. Although rhinovirus declined during the COVID-19 pandemic, it continued to be identified at a rate higher than in historical controls. Additional data are needed to understand the role of rhinovirus in adult ARI, CHF, and COPD exacerbations.

5.
Economic Policy ; : 39, 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1722383

ABSTRACT

This paper uses a difference-in-differences (DID) framework to estimate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) used to fight the 1918 influenza pandemic and control the resultant mortality in 43 US cities. The results suggest that NPIs such as school closures and social distancing, as implemented in 1918, and when applied relatively intensively, might have reduced individual and herd immunity reducing the life expectancy of people with co morbidity, thereby leading to a significantly higher number of deaths in subsequent years. It would be difficult to draw any inference regarding the predicted impact of NPIs as implemented during the Covid-19 crisis as influenza and Covid-19 are two entirely different viruses and nowadays' pharmaceutical technologies can limit these medium-term impacts.

6.
Int J Infect Dis ; 2022 Feb 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1697884

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate class suspension and mass vaccination implemented among Taipei schoolchildren during the 2009 influenza pandemic and investigate factors affecting antibody responses. METHODS: We conducted two cohort studies on: (1) 972 schoolchildren from November 2009 - March 2010 to evaluate pandemic policies and (2) 935 schoolchildren from November 2011 - March 2012 to verify factors in antibody waning. Anti-influenza H1N1pdm09 hemagglutination inhibition antibodies (HI-Ab) were measured from serum samples collected before vaccination, and at 1- and 4-months post-vaccination. Factors affecting HI-Ab responses were investigated through logistic regression and generalized estimating equation. RESULTS: Seroprevalence of H1N1pdm09 before vaccination was significantly higher among schoolchildren who experienced class suspensions than those didn't (59.6% v.s. 47.5%, p<0.05). Participants in after-school activities (adjusted odds ratios [aOR]=2.47, p=0.047) and ≥ 3 hours/week of exercise (aOR=2.86, p=0.019) were significantly correlated with H1N1pdm09 infection. Two doses of the H1N1pdm09 vaccine demonstrated significantly better antibody persistence than one dose [HI-Ab-GMT: 132.5 vs 88.6, p=0.047]. Vaccine effectiveness after controlling pre-existing immunity was 86% [32-97%]. Exercise ≥ 3 hours/week and pre-existing immunity were significantly associated with antibody waning/maintenance. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to show exercise and pre-existing immunity may affect antibody waning. Further investigation is needed to identify immune correlates of protection.

7.
Safety and Health at Work ; 13:S222, 2022.
Article in English | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-1677152

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Influenza seasonal infection claims half a million lives in the world every year due to complications. The most effective tool to prevent the seasonal flu infection is with an annual Influenza vaccine. Healthcare workers (HCW) are part of a high-risk occupational category, since they contact directly with flu patients, therefore the vaccination of these workers is paramount. After the breakout of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the prevention of the viral respiratory infections resurfaced to the public attention, including to HCW. The aim of this study is to evaluate the Influenza vaccination coverage of HCW in a general hospital located in Portugal (Centro Hospitalar do Baixo Vouga, Aveiro), in a 9-year timeframe. Material and Methods: This study determined the percentage of our hospital HCW who received the Influenza vaccine by our Occupational Health and Work Medicine Service, from 2012 to 2020. Results and Conclusions: Data shows a record-high vaccination coverage in 2020, the same year which the COVID-19 pandemic reached Portugal. Comparing to the previous year, data shows a 30% increase in the percentage of vaccinated HCW from all types (48,5% vs 37,4%). In comparison to 2019, the percentage of vaccinated nurse practitioners increased 24% (44,9% vs 36,1%) and the percentage of vaccinated physicians increased 46% (64,0% vs 43,9%). Although is not possible to assume causality, this study suggests a correlation between the breakout of the COVID-19 pandemic and the increase in HCW Influenza vaccination coverage of this hospital.

8.
Safety and Health at Work ; 13:S39, 2022.
Article in English | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-1676950

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Corteva is an Agriscience company with 21,000 employee in more than 140 countries producing both crop protection chemicals, seeds, and digital agriscience solutions. The global COVID-19 pandemic posed some unique issues, requiring some novel solutions, given the rural, remote and seasonal nature of the workforce. Materials & Methods: A case study of how a large global Agriscience company managed through a coronavirus pandemic to maintain the health & safety of employees and maintain business continuity. Results: Corteva had a multidisciplinary Pandemic and Infectious Disease Planning Team in place since the inception of the company in 2019. This team had produced plans and guidelines in anticipation of an influenza pandemic. This meant when the COVID-19 pandemic started Corteva was able to quickly modify these materials for use in a coronavirus pandemic. Workers who could work from home were quickly allowed to do so and only those who were required to work from site eg operators at production facilities, were allowed on site and followed strict infection control measures. Conclusion: Pre-pandemic planning was essential to being able to respond to a pandemic rapidly to protect worker health and business continuity. Some unique challenges required some novel solutions and these were worked out in a process that included health, safety, managers and workers.

9.
Am J Infect Control ; 2022 Feb 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1664607

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The 2009 Influenza A(H1N1) pandemic prompted one of the largest public health responses in history. The continuous emergence of new and deadly pathogens has highlighted the need to reflect upon past experiences to improve pandemic preparedness. The aim of this study was to examine the development and rollout of 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic vaccine and knowledge challenges for the effective implementation of vaccination programs for COVID-19 and future influenza pandemics. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted searching EMBASE (inception to current date) and PUBMED (from January 2009 to current date) databases for relevant published studies about influenza A(H1N1) pandemic vaccines. A Google search was conducted to identify relevant documents from gray literature. Selected Studies were reviewed and summarized. RESULTS: A total of 22, comprising of 12 original studies and 10 relevant documents met the inclusion criteria. Fourteen papers reported an initial high demand that outweighed production capacity and caused vaccine shortages. Vaccine procurement and supply were skewed toward high-income countries. Low vaccination rates of about 5%-50% were reported in all studies mainly due to a low-risk perception of getting infected, safety concerns, and the fear of adverse effects. CONCLUSIONS: Safety concerns about the approved H1N1 vaccines resulted in many unsuccessful vaccination campaigns worldwide. Understanding the factors that influence people's decision to accept or refuse vaccination, effective risk communication strategies, adequate resources for vaccine deployment initiatives and building local capacities through shared knowledge and technology transfer may help to improve COVID-19 vaccine uptake and accelerate pandemic control.

10.
Journal of the Mexican Chemical Society ; 66(1):130-153, 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1631396

ABSTRACT

Covid-19 has resulted in a worldwide epidemic (pandemic) with high morbidity and mortality, which has generated efforts in various areas of research looking for safe and effective treatments to combat the virus that generates this disease: SARS-CoV-2. However, several viruses have been emerged/adapted in the last few decades, also affecting the respiratory system. According to the world health organization (WHO), lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) are one of the leading causes of death worldwide, and viruses are playing important roles as the cause of these infections. In contrast to the vast repertoire of antibiotics that exist to treat bacteria-caused LRTIs, there are a very few antivirals approved for the treatment of virus-caused LRTIs, whose approach consists mainly of drug reuse. This minireview deals on the main viral pathogens that cause LRTIs and some of the most relevant antivirals to counter them (available drugs and molecules in research/clinical trials), with concise comments of their mechanism of action.

11.
Risk Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy ; : 22, 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1627159

ABSTRACT

Research on the societal costs of disaster-related US school closures has focused, and due to COVID-19 will likely continue to focus, on pandemics, with very limited research on closures from natural hazards. This is surprising given that school closures occur frequently to protect children, teachers, and staff pre-event as well as post-disaster to convert facilities into emergency shelters, etc. This study investigates the secondary effects from post-flooding, temporary school closures after the catastrophic 2015 flash flood in Richland County, South Carolina. Lost productivity from school closures was quantified using the Human Capital Method. Out of the 208 completed surveys, 75% of households had children that missed school. Post-stratifying survey results on race produced an average of $437 in lost productivity due to school closures and an overall $2175 in lost productivity due to flood-related impacts in general. Expressed in FEMA benefit-cost analysis terms, our study shows that schools have a standard value of $215 per household and per day for the unweighted sample ($180 for the race-weighted sample). Furthermore, households' disutility for a late start is almost as great as their disutility for a school closure. These exploratory findings suggest that unplanned school closures should be minimized, and community characteristics carefully considered to avoid unintended socioeconomic consequences.

12.
Annals of Clinical and Analytical Medicine ; 12(8):835-839, 2021.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1619174

ABSTRACT

Aim: The aim of this study was to determine the perceptions of individuals concerning the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey and to try to slip out of this perception of the relationship between anxiety and avoidance behavior. Material and Methods: A snowball sampling method was used in this study. Data were collected through an online questionnaire between March 26 and April 1, 2020. A total of 834 persons were surveyed from 81 cities in Turkey. The demographic questions created by the researchers and a perception scale about COVID-19 were used. The data were analyzed with SPSS 25.0 statistical program. Results: Risk perception and anxiety levels of the participants during the COVID-19 pandemic were found to be statistically associated with gender, employment status, income level, general health insurance and the presence of chronic disease (p <0.05). The majority of the participants (83.3%) considered the disease fatal and 59.1% were anxious. The anxiety levels of the participants played a mediator role between perceived risks and avoidance behaviors. Participants' risk perception for the COVID-19 pandemic was 4.22 +/- 0.63, and their anxiety levels were above the average of 3.92 +/- 0.71. Discussion: The perceptions, beliefs, attitudes and psychological responses of communities with increased uncertainty and epidemic effects can act as a "vector" in the transmission of the disease.

13.
Cogent Medicine ; 8, 2021.
Article in English | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-1617071

ABSTRACT

Background: There is little data available on vaccine hesitancy rates in Irish parents, particularly in relation to the influenza vaccine (InV). Evidence to date would suggest that the morbidity from COVID-19 is lower in paediatric populations than that from influenza. Vaccination strategies are likely to be required for both infections, and as such, understanding parental perception of both vaccines is essential. Aims: We hoped to identify vaccination hesitancy rates for routine childhood vaccines (RCV) and for the influenza vaccine (InV). We then sought to identify intended uptake rates of the InV and any potential paediatric COVID-19 vaccine and review this data to try to identify trends in vaccination perceptions. Methods: A 10 item anonymised questionnaire was distributed to parents of all patients admitted under the General Paediatric team in a large tertiary centre in Dublin for 4 weeks during November 2020. Results were compiled and analysed, with scoring averages used to determine perceived vaccine efficacy scores (PVES) from a minimum of 1 to a maximum of 5 amongst the population and its subgroups. Results: A total of 214 questionnaires were analysed. The average age was 59.45 months, with the median being 34 months. Of those due to have commenced their RCV schedule, 92.98% were up to date, with 2.7% having received no vaccinations. The average PVES for RCV and the InV was 4.67 and 4.31, respectively. Of those eligible to receive the InV this year (n=143), 37.8% were either very likely or likely to receive the vaccine, with 47.6% unsure, unlikely, or very unlikely. PVES decreased steadily with increasing hesitancy, to a nadir of 4.13 for RCH and 3 for the InV in the very unlikely subgroup. The average likelihood to receive a COVID-19 vaccination, if one were available, was 3.67. Only 23.83% were likely or very likely to vaccinate against influenza and COVID-19 simultaneously. With regards to preferable vaccination, 22.9% would prefer COVID-19 vaccination, 20.56% would prefer Influenza vaccination, 41.59% had equal preference, and 13.55% wanted neither. Discussion: Our study showed high PVES for both RCV and InV as well as high vaccination rates, but comparatively low intended rates of uptake of the Influenza vaccine and a potential COVID-19 vaccination. More research as to the reasoning behind this is needed in order to plan potential vaccination strategies.

14.
Gastroenterology ; 160(6):S-391, 2021.
Article in English | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-1597588

ABSTRACT

Background: Vaccination rates remain low among patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) despite guideline recommendations and evidence-based publications. Reported barriers include perceived lack of benefit, fear of side effects, and inconvenience. At our IBD center we follow approximately 1700 patients. During the 2019-2020 influenza season, our vaccination rate for the entire IBD population was 40.3% and 45.5% for those receiving biologic therapies at our infusion center (n=772). We developed a quality improvement initiative to evaluate vaccination practices and to determine effective strategies to increase vaccine uptake. As a first-step, we targeted our most vulnerable and accessible population: patients receiving biologic infusions. Methods: Our initiative began in August 2020. Plan-do-study-act cycles included creation of a multi-disciplinary team to review vaccination barriers and distribution of a survey to caregivers or IBD patients >=18 years to explore vaccination decision making process, awareness of recommendations, and impact of vaccine availability in the infusion center on uptake. The next phase was optimizing access among patients receiving biologic therapies at our infusion center. The strategies we implemented included educational sessions with the division providers and infusion center nurses, creation of an Epic EMR order set, active phone screening of our population prior to infusion visits, at which point unvaccinated patients were offered the vaccine during the appointment. Chi squared analysis compared survey responses between caregivers and patients. Two proportion sample test identified differences in vaccination rates between the two influenza seasons. Results: The survey was answered by 14.4% (n=269 caregivers and n=60 patients), with 71.3% on either anti-TNF alpha (infliximab, adalimumab) or vedolizumab. Of respondents, 13.4% were unvaccinated in 2019-2020. Top reasons for non-vaccination included “unsure of safety” (31.8%), “unsure of benefit” (29.5%), and “forgot to schedule” (13.6%). Patients and caregivers had similar vaccine impressions, with no statistically significant differences (Figure 1). For the 2020-2021 season, 88.75% plan to get vaccinated and 51.7% expressed interest in receiving the vaccine during their infusion appointment. Since implementing our initiative, the vaccination rate has already increased to 59.2% compared to 45.5% (p=0.001). Conclusions: Our initiative increased vaccination rates in patients receiving biologic infusions by 13.7% thus far. Particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, the influenza vaccine is essential to protect this vulnerable population and decrease the burden on the healthcare system. We have identified pre-screening prior to appointments and providing access in conjunction to scheduled appointments as the most effective strategies to optimize vaccination uptake.(figure presented)

15.
Journal of Policy Research in Tourism Leisure and Events ; : 15, 2021.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1585299

ABSTRACT

The great majority of people in developing countries depend on the informal economy for their livelihoods. In countries that rely heavily on tourism, pandemics and related confinements make these individual even more socioeconomically vulnerable. This paper critically explores the immediate socioeconomic effects on the informal tourism economy of confinement measures associated with the corona virus-19 pandemic, as seen from a social vulnerability perspective. Mexico is one of the countries that depends the most on tourism and the informal economy, so this nation was selected for an exploratory case study. The results suggest that many workers in the informal tourism sector were affected immediately by - and their vulnerability increased because of - pandemic-related confinements. These restrictive measures' imposition on the entire population highlighted Mexico's deep social inequalities. Recommendations are offered of how to protect vulnerable individuals involved in the informal tourism economy.

16.
Reviews in Medical Microbiology ; 33(1):E161-E179, 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1583946

ABSTRACT

Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in December 2019 in Wuhan province, China. SARS-CoV-2 causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) has an essential role as a receptor in the entry of the SARS-CoV-2 into the host cells. It has been declared, ACE2 expresses in the lungs, heart, kidneys, placenta, and liver. This study reviews the liver's markers' characteristics in patients with COVID-19 to achieve novel insights in improving clinical treatment. Liver disease and chronic kidney disease patients are susceptible to COVID-19. There is limited information about the effects of SARS-COV-2 on patients with preexisting liver associated disorders, including chronic hepatitis B virus or hepatitis C virus, primary biliary cirrhosis, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, and more are yet to be understood. By considering conducted studies in this manner since ACE2 receptors, which are the primary receptors for SRAS-CoV-2, exist on the liver and lungs, heart, kidneys, and placenta, SRAS-CoV-2 can infect liver cells too. Consequently, this infection will have resulted in liver function tests' escalated levels and total bilirubin as biochemical biomarkers. Further investigations need to be done to point out the hepatic manifestations of COVID-19's infected patients with chronic liver disease and improve clinical management and more stringent preventive measures for this type of infected patients. Copyright (C) 2021 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

17.
Acta Medica Mediterranea ; 36(6):3747-3752, 2020.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1579547

ABSTRACT

Background and Purpose: Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a highly contagious disease which continuously and rapidly circulating around the world now. The patients with severe COVID-19 have relatively high mortality. Therefore, there is an urgent need for methods to assess mortality risk in patients with COVID-19 accurately. Materials and methods: We conducted a retrospective study focusing on the clinical characteristics of 194 confirmed cases of severe COVID-19. Personal information, clinical data and laboratory information of patients with COVID-19 were collected by consulting case records so as to investigate the risk of death related to COVID-19. Results: In the 194 patients with COVID-19, there was no difference in prevalence between men and women. Comorbidities (such as hypertension, cerebral infarction) associated with severe clinical features and mortality are prevalent in non-survivors. 86.1% of patients with severe COVID-19 had fever and 46.9% coughed, and the proportion of chest tightness, airlessness and dyspnea in non-survivors was significantly higher than that in survivors. There were multiple laboratory indicator differences between survivors and non-survivors. Non-survivors had significantly lower lymphocyte count (including T lymphocyte). Changes in liver (aspartate aminotransferase, AST), kidney [Urea, creatinine (Cr)], and heart [lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), creatine kinase (CK), B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP)] damage markers, coagulation, and inflammation indicators in severe patients were related to their risk of death. Multivariable logistic regression model revealed that age (OR 1.082, 95% CI 1.024-1.357), interleukin-6 (IL-6). (OR 1.568, 95% CI 1.149-2.138), D-dimer (OR 1.327, 95% CI 1.087-1.621) were associated significantly with risk of death, whereas CD4 count was associated with a lower risk (OR 0.972, 95% CI 0.953-0.992). Conclusion: This study found that age, IL-6, D-dimer and CD4 counts are closely related to mortality risk in patients with severe COVID-19, and they are useful in assessing the prognosis of patients.

18.
Azerbaijan Journal of Mathematics ; 11(2):183-195, 2021.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1567501

ABSTRACT

In this study, a treatment argument is provided as a discrete two-player game related to an epidemiological dynamics, so-called, Susceptible- Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. Here, a simple discrete version of the dynamics of SIR model is considered within a treatment structure in such a way to control the behaviour of each candidate: population of the susceptible, infected and recovered people, respectively. In this regard, several two-player game models are proposed, where one player follows its own existed policy where as the other tries to track its opponent's treatment schedule as close as possible. In this regard, different strategies are built for one player to catch the other in a two-player game environment, where one player determines the total number of susceptible or infected people at a given period, in the meantime, the other tries to build its corresponding treatment policy to get closer to its opponent's counting schedule. The main contribution of this work is to build a better treatment schedule by using a game theoretical point of view to cure the population suffered from an infectious disease. At the end, the work is related to pursuer-evasion discrete games and the idea could be implemented on compartmental models like COVID-19 and transportation problems.

19.
Epidemics ; 36: 100478, 2021 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1274235

ABSTRACT

National influenza pandemic plans have evolved substantially over recent decades, as has the scientific research that underpins the advice contained within them. While the knowledge generated by many research activities has been directly incorporated into the current generation of pandemic plans, scientists and policymakers are yet to capitalise fully on the potential for near real-time analytics to formally contribute to epidemic decision-making. Theoretical studies demonstrate that it is now possible to make robust estimates of pandemic impact in the earliest stages of a pandemic using first few hundred household cohort (FFX) studies and algorithms designed specifically for analysing FFX data. Pandemic plans already recognise the importance of both situational awareness i.e., knowing pandemic impact and its key drivers, and the need for pandemic special studies and related analytic methods for estimating these drivers. An important next step is considering how information from these situational assessment activities can be integrated into the decision-making processes articulated in pandemic planning documents. Here we introduce a decision support tool that directly uses outputs from FFX algorithms to present recommendations on response options, including a quantification of uncertainty, to decision makers. We illustrate this approach using response information from within the Australian influenza pandemic plan.


Subject(s)
Influenza, Human , Australia , Humans , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Pandemics/prevention & control , Policy
20.
Front Immunol ; 12: 593595, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1229174

ABSTRACT

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is a global health threat with the potential to cause severe disease manifestations in the lungs. Although COVID-19 has been extensively characterized clinically, the factors distinguishing SARS-CoV-2 from other respiratory viruses are unknown. Here, we compared the clinical, histopathological, and immunological characteristics of patients with COVID-19 and pandemic influenza A(H1N1). We observed a higher frequency of respiratory symptoms, increased tissue injury markers, and a histological pattern of alveolar pneumonia in pandemic influenza A(H1N1) patients. Conversely, dry cough, gastrointestinal symptoms and interstitial lung pathology were observed in COVID-19 cases. Pandemic influenza A(H1N1) was characterized by higher levels of IL-1RA, TNF-α, CCL3, G-CSF, APRIL, sTNF-R1, sTNF-R2, sCD30, and sCD163. Meanwhile, COVID-19 displayed an immune profile distinguished by increased Th1 (IL-12, IFN-γ) and Th2 (IL-4, IL-5, IL-10, IL-13) cytokine levels, along with IL-1ß, IL-6, CCL11, VEGF, TWEAK, TSLP, MMP-1, and MMP-3. Our data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 induces a dysbalanced polyfunctional inflammatory response that is different from the immune response against pandemic influenza A(H1N1). Furthermore, we demonstrated the diagnostic potential of some clinical and immune factors to differentiate both diseases. These findings might be relevant for the ongoing and future influenza seasons in the Northern Hemisphere, which are historically unique due to their convergence with the COVID-19 pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cytokines , Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype , Influenza, Human , Matrix Metalloproteinase 1 , Matrix Metalloproteinase 3 , Receptors, Immunologic , Adult , Aged , COVID-19/blood , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/immunology , Cytokines/blood , Cytokines/immunology , Female , Humans , Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/immunology , Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/metabolism , Influenza, Human/blood , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/immunology , Male , Matrix Metalloproteinase 1/blood , Matrix Metalloproteinase 1/immunology , Matrix Metalloproteinase 3/blood , Matrix Metalloproteinase 3/immunology , Middle Aged , Prospective Studies , Receptors, Immunologic/blood , Receptors, Immunologic/immunology , Th1 Cells/immunology , Th2 Cells/immunology
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