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1.
Economic Change and Restructuring ; 56(1):265-295, 2023.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2209406

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to map the effects of the rapid spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) on stock price dynamics and markets selections based on data from March 22, 2021, to September 20, 2021. Options markets from 2020 to 2021, multiple kinds of critical COVID-19 data. The proposed hypothetical modal considers investors' behavior and errors caused by the level of sentiment elicited for stock markets and green categories. This paper another element (1) Covid-19 (2) feeling, and (3) networking websites, for example, Covid-19 influence on the green size, green direction, and impact on securities prices. This paper used google search data work also creates a proxy for emotions dependent on five main categories of Data: (1) Covid-19, pandemic effect (2) markets, (3) lockdown, (4) banking and government aid. Moreover, this paper Use (a) VIX index sentiment, (b) S& The P 500 index is a measure of how well a sentiment (c) Sentiment in the S& amp;P 500 bank index. The Projected to empirical Finding follow First Level during the Covid-19, effect on jump volatility, and variability level in persistence on the green stock market exceeds that on the options market. VIX index green financial level increases with the COVID green financial level increase with the COVID-19 market index, index banking index and lockdown index. Therefore, it concluded the Share market statistic, COVID-19 benchmark, and long-run volatility. The fraction of the leap government assistance reduced. We find that the outbreak of the Pandemic of COVID-19 effects of the S&P 500 Index and S&P 500 Banks Index decrease with highest values (39%) but only after a surge in volatility covid-19 Pandemic. These results comply with our model's expectations.

2.
Acta Universitatis Danubius. Oeconomica ; 18(5), 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2207509

ABSTRACT

Before the advent of the Russia-Ukraine war, Nigeria has been consistently experiencing short falls in meeting the OPEC quotas in the international market for crude oil. As one of the major players in this market, the persistent short falls could orchestrate price dynamics in the international oil market. Meanwhile, continuous rise in Covid-19 cases in 2020 in Nigeria led to the closure of the economic activities in the country, of which could spell doom for both the local and the global aggregate demand and supply of crude oil. Against this backdrop this study utilized the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model to research the influence of Covid-19 cases in Nigeria on global crude oil prices, utilizing information from the relevant sources from the period of 1st March, 2020 to 30th June, 2022. Consequently, this study's conclusions include the following;the confirmed cases and the death cases of Covid-19 in Nigeria had positively induced the global crude oil prices, though not in a significant way. Whereas, the Covid-19 recovery cases in Nigeria had negatively and significantly induced global crude oil prices. However, none of the variables is causally related to one another. From these findings, it is strategic to enunciate that any time the policymakers in OPEC wish to ensure stability in the prices of crude oil in the international market, the Nigerian government in particular and other crude oil exporting countries should take a pragmatic step in curbing the emergence of new waves of Covid-19 cases in their countries.

3.
Acta Universitatis Danubius. Oeconomica ; 17(5), 2021.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2207490

ABSTRACT

This paper analyses the response of stock markets to vaccine availability. Objective: the objective of this paper is to examine the differential effect of information about the arrival of COVID vaccine on the stock price performance of five main global stock market indexes. Prior work: the paper relies on the prior theory of Efficient Market Hypotheses (EMH). Method: data on stock price performance seven months before vaccine arrival and seven months within the vaccination period were from Trading Economics stock indexes archives for five main market indexes namely (Dow Jones, Shanghai, S&P, FTSE, and EURONEXT). The data were analysed using the t-test of mean difference in stock prices before and during vaccine at 5% alpha level. Findings: results for the five indexes analysis show that stock prices during the arrival of vaccine significantly outweigh the stock prices before vaccine arrival at p-values below 0.01, which are lower than the alpha value of 5%. The mean stock price increases during vaccine arrival ranges from 7% to over 20% for the different indexes. Implications: The paper provides practical information for investors who need to know how sensitive the various indexes are to vaccine information. The paper also provides an avenue for future research to expand on this initial research on vaccine effect on stock prices. Furthermore, the paper presents a veritable case study for economics and finance postgraduate students in the universities. Value: This paper fills existing gap in knowledge by being the first to analyse the effect of COVID vaccine arrival on the stock price of five main global stock indexes and contributes by indicating that stock indexes are sensitive to vaccine production with diverse percentages of sensitivity.

4.
Journal of Energy and Development ; 47(2):155-175,333, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2207404

ABSTRACT

Due to the outbreak of Covid-19, crude oil demand fell significantly. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price turned negative for the first time in its history. Given the importance of crude oil as a natural resource and its intrinsic tie to the economy, the price fall may significantly impact crude oil participants. Even though the pandemic has become a new norm globally, crude oil price movements will assuredly remain a concern for crude oil participants. This study uses MATLAB software to model various conditional mean and variance models to address the impact of Covid-19 on WTI and Brent crude oil prices, forecasting returns and measuring potential Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall. Daily crude oil prices of WTI and Brent are obtained from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and cover from 4 January 2010 to 30 July 2021. The study period is divided into two periods to study the impact of Covid19 on crude oil prices. The conditional mean and variance models are evaluated by the Box-Jenkins methodology. This study found that both WTI and Brent returns do not follow a normal distribution, and the GJR(1,1) with student-t distribution outperformed the GARCH and EGARCH models. The best fit model of WTI is MA(1)-GJR(1,1), while the best fit model of Brent is MA(2)-GJR(1,1). The results reveal the impact of Covid-19 on crude oil prices and show a higher standard deviation during Covid-19 than before Covid-19. The high GARCH value indicates that the volatility is highly persistent and clustering. The forecast results reveal that the volatility of WTI and Brent crude oil prices will continue to rise in the future. Risk determination for both WTI and Brent was conducted, and the potential losses of WTI are found to be greater than that of Brent.

5.
Journal of Accounting, Finance and Auditing Studies ; 9(1):140-153, 2023.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2218093

ABSTRACT

Purpose: A notable observation in the literature of financial markets is the debate on market contagion and causality. During periods of financial distress, global financial markets experience record low market prices partly due to the spread of fear. It was therefore necessary to investigate market contagions using causality relationships during periods of financial distress. Methodology: A unit root test, Granger causality and Test for equality of means was used as the blueprint. The sample periods where December 1, 2007 to June 30, 2009 and January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021. Findings: Contrary to the perceptions that prevails in most stock markets during distress, there was little empirical evidence to support market contagions. Although very few markets are indeed related. Originality/Value: The implications of this study extends the efficient market hypothesis concept to market efficiency during periods of financial distress. It is evident that financial markets display greater efficiencies during periods of financial distress. This study is the first to investigate market contagion during periods of distress as per author's knowledge.

6.
European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies ; 14(2):119-132, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2217980

ABSTRACT

The property market in Central European Region countries share a number of common features among which privatization, restitution of property, massive regulation or underdeveloped financial market all of which contributed on persisting property market imbalances and continuous dynamic changes. These changes have recently been significantly exacerbated by the presence of the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and a significant increase in energy prices (heating of apartments and houses, production of building materials, etc.). It is currently difficult for investors and people looking for their own housing to predict the future development of housing prices and housing affordability. This article analyses the housing market trends in this region taking the example of the Czech Republic using unique primary statistical data. It offers a deeper insight into the trends present on this market, identifies significant determinants of housing prices and evaluates changes in housing affordability. Our research reveals why the property market trends may contribute to opening inequality scissors and thus economic stability. This research is based on primary statistical data mined by EVAL software which allows to gather information about the development of the real estate market from real estate advertising.

7.
Revista Historia-Debates E Tendencias ; 22(3):108-128, 2022.
Article in Spanish | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2217354

ABSTRACT

At the beginning of the 21st century, the agri-food sector entered a cycle of rising prices with frequent food crises. We critically approach the explanations for the 2008 and 2021/22 crises in order to expose the dynamics between medium- and short-term trends that underlie them. We consider the main factors that contribute to the explanation and expose the link between the low productivity of agricultural work, the increase in costs associated with hydrocarbons and the demand for biofuels as the combination that centrally accounts for the process underlying both episodes. We observe that certain disruptive factors in world trade such as the COVID-19 pandemic or the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, as well as climatic complications, can induce abrupt price increases when interacting with the aforementioned medium-term causes.

8.
International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making ; : 1-29, 2023.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2214016

ABSTRACT

In the past, it was believed that investors may generate abnormal returns (AR) for trading stocks by employing technical trading rules. However, since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, stock markets around the world seem to suffer a serious impact. Therefore, whether investors can beat the markets by applying technical trading rules during the period of COVID-19 pandemic becomes an important issue for market participants. The purpose of this study is to examine the profitability of trading stocks with the use of technical trading rules under the COVID-19 pandemic. By trading the constituent stocks of DJ 30 and NASDAQ 100, we find that almost all of the trading rules employed in this study fail to beat the market during the COVID-19 pandemic period, which is different from the results in 2019. The revealed findings of this study may shed light on that investors should adopt technical trading with care when stock markets are seriously affected by black swan events like COVID-19.

9.
IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems ; : 1-12, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2213376

ABSTRACT

One of the problems experienced by micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) during this pandemic is that most MSME actors do not understand plan-making during a crisis. This situation was exacerbated by erratic commodity prices, which resulted in several MSME players choosing to temporarily close because their turnover got a drastic decline. To help MSME actors maintain their business by knowing commodity price predictions, we propose a deep learning model using the long short-term memory (LSTM) method to predict commodity prices in Indonesia. LSTM is a type of recurrent neural network (RNN) with a memory cell to store information and solve the vanishing gradient problem in RNN. Furthermore, multivariate LSTM leverages the model to predict datasets with more than one feature. This study used a dataset collected from the Pusat Informasi Harga Pangan Strategis Nasional (PIHPS Nasional) managed by the Indonesian Ministry of Finance and Bank Indonesia consisting of significantly contributed food commodities to the formation of (strategic) inflation rates in Indonesia. The time range of commodity prices is from August 1, 2017, to July 30, 2021. There are 11 commodity price features in the dataset, namely, rice, chicken meat, eggs, onions, garlic, large red chilies, curly red chilies, red chilies, green chilies, cooking oil, and sugar. The lowest mean absolute error (MAE) on prediction is up to 255.998 obtained by the attention multivariate LSTM model with the Adam optimizer, adding batch normalization (Batchnorm) layer, reducing LSTM layer, hidden size, and grouped features. It makes the prediction more accurate and avoids overfitting and underfitting in this case. IEEE

10.
China Agricultural Economic Review ; 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2213041

ABSTRACT

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effects of price and income changes on food and nutrient demand of rural households by including own-produced food and production-side effects in the demand estimation to correct potential measurement bias in the income and price elasticities for rural households in underdeveloped areas. Simulation results of income and grain price changes on food and nutrition security are provided for economic nutrition security policy applications.Design/methodology/approachThis study analyzes survey data of 1,555 households from underdeveloped rural areas of China to find out how price and income changes affect food and nutrition insecurity of rural households. The authors employ the quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS) in a two-stage budgeting framework, using quality adjusted prices that were retrieved with regressions of the difference between the unit value surveyed at household level and its village average on household characteristics. The bias correction is implemented by using an augmented IV (instrumental variable) method, in which each market price is instrumented with farm-specific variables. Important macro- and micronutrient elasticities are computed for (a) households with agriculture as main income and (b) other households (of which still many have agriculture as a side business). Finally, the authors use these elasticities to simulate how changes in income or grain prices affect the food and nutrition security in the studied areas.FindingsIn general, food income elasticities of agricultural households are at a higher level than those for other households, and so are the food price elasticities. Income changes also have a greater nutritional effect on agricultural households than on other households. Nutrient income elasticities ranged from 0.22 (energy) to 0.27 (Vitamin A) for agricultural households and from 0.19 (energy) to 0.23 (Vitamin A) for other households. Grain price increases have greater effect on nutritional status of non-agricultural households, while a grain price reduction is not clearly favoring the nutritional situation of a particular household group.Originality/valueThis demand study contributes to the literature by taking into account differences in consumption of own production between households and the potential endogeneity of prices resulting thereof. The authors also demonstrate that merely reporting nutrient elasticities might not be sufficient for policy recommendations, and simulations should be reported as a valuable addition.

11.
Resources Policy ; : 103317, 2023.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2211339

ABSTRACT

This article explores the impact of fuel price movements on the stock market return of 2020 during the Covid-19 disruptions. In doing so, a monthly data of seven selected stock market indices representing developed and emerging economies globally was used for analysis. The study used a time-varying parameter VAR model to examine a time-varying causal association between oil prices and stock market returns and a novel quantile-causality approach to capture the fluctuations of these markets under Covid-19's varying market conditions. The study further utilises the entropy transfer approach to capture the Granger-causal relationship in the presence of nonlinearities of the data series. The results indicate a high information flow from fuel prices to the FTSE-100, Pacific, and European stock indicies, but not the other way round. The results show that, for the FTSE-100 and the European region, there is a two-way information flow between equities and natural gas, and vice-versa. However, a one-way information flow was established from the stock market to the Pacific and emerging economies.

12.
Marine Policy ; : 105496, 2023.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2211116

ABSTRACT

This paper explores the effect of the perceived risk of the Swedish people of Covid-19 on daily auctioned shrimp prices from the start of the pandemic to the end of the year 2021. This topic is of interest to see whether the government intervention in the shrimp market to aid fishers with possible losses was justified. The Swedish shrimp fishery was for a long time managed by Regulated Open Access, but in January 1, 2017, it was transformed to a Strong User Rights Fishery by the introduction of Individual Transferable Quotas (ITQs). We use empirical data from the period from 2018-2021. We find that auction prices were negatively affected by covid-19 cases by SEK 19.83/kg (-9.37%), and that fishers have suffered a loss of SEK 21.5 million.

13.
Resour Policy ; 79: 103033, 2022 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2182738

ABSTRACT

The current research intends to examine the commodities' dynamism connection with stock prices under the COVID-19 crisis. DCC-GARCH modeling was applied to the data of Asian economies, including China, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Pakistan to achieve the study objectives. The study's results indicated a significant connection between gold prices with stock prices and oil prices for all Asian stock markets. The results of the study constructs were symmetrical. In general, the connection grows with the frequency. The lowest frequency months contributed the most to the total relationship, followed by more than 12 months. Overall, gold and oil prices influence the Asian stock markets. These research findings can avoid contagion in times of economic uncertainty. This study also suggested policy implications for better decision-making of key stakeholders. Dynamic coefficient values were about 0.8 of ß2 because nations' internal markets were more closely linked. There are also dynamic relationship factors between crude oil and foreign currency markets, where the correlations in India and China have always been around 0.

14.
Resour Policy ; 79: 103024, 2022 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2182737

ABSTRACT

Gold and crude oil are the influential commodities of the stock markets and real economy of the world in financial crises as well as in COVID-19 periods. However literature mainly focused on the effects of these commodities' prices only, and the volatilities in the prices of these commodities altogether with the prices got little attention. To fill in a major research gap, our study intends to estimate the dynamic relationship between oil prices, gold prices, oil prices volatilities and gold prices volatilities on the stock market of China. Using daily data over the period from 2009 to 2021, the study applied Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test approach for the purpose of empirical estimation. Moreover, Non linear ARDL and asymmetric Causality analysis has also been applied for more comprehensive asymmetric estimation. The findings of our study indicated that gold prices and oil prices negatively affect stock market of China in the long run. In terms of implied volatility index of these commodities, study finds negative impact of price volatility of oil but positive impact of the price volatility of gold on the country's stock market in the long run. However, in the short run, only oil price and gold prices have significant effect on the China's stock market. On the basis of our findings, we recommend the investors to make rational decisions in response to the uncertainties in these markets and should consider gold as a safe haven to hedge themselves in times of uncertainty. Policymakers should take appropriate actions and adopt proper mechanisms for dealing with the quick uncertainty flow of information from the oil to the stock market.

15.
J Urban Econ ; : 103487, 2022 Jul 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2181101

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the effect of COVID-19 on both housing prices and housing price gradients in China using transaction level data from 60 Chinese cities. After using a difference-in-differences (DID) specification to disentangle the confounding effects of China's annual Spring Festival, we find that housing prices decreased by two percent immediately after the COVID-19 outbreak but gradually recovered by September 2020. Moreover, our findings suggest that COVID-19 flattens the horizontal housing price gradient, reduces the price premium for living in tall buildings, and changes the vertical gradient within residential buildings. This is likely explained by the changing household preferences towards low-density areas associated with lower infection risk.

16.
Indian Research Journal of Extension Education ; 22(5):8-12, 2022.
Article in English | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-2207170

ABSTRACT

The study was undertaken to know perception of veterinary students on impact of COVID-19 lockdown on livestock and poultry sectors and suggestions to manage the lockdown impact. Data were collected through google form from 73 veterinary undergraduate students on July 2021. The data was analysed by descriptive statistics, Rank Based Quotient (RBQ) and results were interpreted. Our results revealed that veterinary students strongly agreed with increased prices for concentrate feed and limited supply (50.70%), limited availability of veterinary doctors for private practices (39.70%), declined livestock sales owing to livestock transportation constraints (41.10%) and declined demand for meat/livestock due to consumer unreadiness (28.80%) toward the livestock sectors. Further, the study reported that veterinary students had greater perception on price drop of eggs and broiler chicken during lockdown's initial period (47.90%), rise in consumption of country chicken meat and eggs (61.60%) and farm labour shortages (47.90%) in the poultry sector. These participants suggested, expansion of milk collection centres;and sell milk and meat via a mobile van (RBQ 47.06);give COVID-19 vaccination priority to farm labour;employ family labour for farm maintenance (RBQ 36.76);and promote COVID-19 measures through prominent local leaders (RBQ 35.29) to manage COVID-19 impact on livestock.

17.
Journal of Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality ; 4(2):109-117, 2022.
Article in English | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-2206920

ABSTRACT

Covid-19 outbreak, which emerged in December 2019, deeply affected the economies. During the Covid-19 outbreak, there was a significant decline in restaurant revenues, foreign currency inflows and employment. Moreover, the outbreak has caused radical changes in lifestyles and consumer behaviors. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the user comments on the TripAdvisor website regarding Safe Tourism Certified restaurants in Turkey during the Covid-19 outbreak. The universe considered in this study comprised users who ate at Safe Tourism Certified restaurants in Turkey and commented on the Tripadvisor website. The content analysis method, which is used in qualitative research methodologies, was applied. In this context, a total of 922 reviews for 98 Safe Tourism Certified restaurants on the Tripadvisor website over the period of 11 March 2020- 20 April 2022 were examined with the help of Nvivo 12 program. It was revealed that 80.6% of the customer comments were positive. The most emphasized factors in the comments were taste, price, attitude and behavior of the employee, view, food and beverage quality, cleanliness, punctuality, employee care and Covid-19 security measures. These findings can assist in understanding the nature of consumer perceptions during pandemic.

18.
Xinan Jiaotong Daxue Xuebao/Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University ; 57(5):562-573, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2206245

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 outbreak caused a slowdown in the Indonesian economy, as it did in many other impacted nations. Consequently, the housing market in Indonesia, along with other industries, deteriorated. Other post-pandemic issues displace the property industry's priorities in Indonesia. Determining a fair property price is a problem occurring because of the economic slowdown. Property sellers expected their property selling prices to be the same before the pandemic or even increase, but property agents hoped the properties would be selling fast, creating a sense of distrust between the seller and the property agents. This work aims to develop a machine learning-based prediction model for real estate agents to use in determining property prices, with the expectation that the resulting predictions will be more accurate and supported by the data, increasing seller and buyer confidence. Following the suggestion from previous studies, several supervised algorithms such as Linear Regression, Decision Tree, and Random Forest were used to develop the model. Training data were collected from five property agents in Surabaya and as well as web scraping from the online home sales portals. Findings from the study show that Random Forest performs best in predicting with the highest coefficient of determination and lowest error. Using evaluation measures such as Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), the error was calculated to be 23%, which is acceptable for prediction. © 2022 Science Press. All rights reserved.

19.
International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues ; 12(6):173-179, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2205918

ABSTRACT

The petrol price plays an important role in all types of business and economic activities, especially in South Africa. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the volatility of the exchange rate are some of the current challenges in the South African economy and these factors might have significant implications on domestic petrol fuel prices. In the last two years, the petrol price has experienced a drastic increase in the South African commodity market. The current study investigated the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and exchange rate fluctuations on petrol prices in South Africa for the period between March 2020 and June 2022. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was employed to establish the long-run and short-run relationship between COVID-19 new infections, exchange rate and petrol price in South Africa. The result revealed that both exchange rate and COVID-19 infections negatively influence the petrol price in the long run. However, in the short-run exchange rate has a positive impact on petrol price while the latter is negatively affected by increases in COVID-19 new cases of infection. To maintain a steady state of petrol prices and reduce the impact of petrol price fluctuations, the study recommends the implementation of monetary policies that strengthen the domestic currency accompanied by social awareness programmes on COVID-19 management.

20.
Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Brasov Economic Sciences Series V ; 15(2):83-90, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2205899

ABSTRACT

The paper presents some aspects about indicators related to the standard of living in the European Union in general. The indicators took into consideration were government deficit/surplus, debt and associated data, percentage of gross domestic product, harmonised indices of consumer prices, annual average index, harmonised indices consumer prices-monthly data, annual rate of change, and food price monitoring tool. The results showed an increase of government deficit in almost all European Union countries as well as an increase of the inflation rate especially for commodity products like food.

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