Can CO2 be used as an indicator of the probability of cross-infection?

The validity of using CO2 as an indicator of airborne infection probability was studied. Tracer gas measurements were conducted in a field lab with two breathing thermal manikins resembling "infected” and "susceptible” persons seated at desks. The room was ventilated with a mixing air distribution. Experiments were performed at three ventilation rates. CO2 gas was dosed into the air exhaled by the manikins to simulate the metabolic CO2 generation by people. Simultaneously, nitrous oxide (N2O) tracer gas was dosed into the air exhaled by one of the manikins ("infected person”) to simulate the emission of exhaled infectious particles. CO2 and N2O concentrations were measured at several points. The probability of infection was calculated based on the concentration of CO2 and N2O measured in the air inhaled by the exposed manikin ("susceptible person”). The results did not confirm that CO2 can be used as a proxy to assess the infection probability. © 2022 17th International Conference on Indoor Air Quality and Climate, INDOOR AIR 2022. All rights reserved.

How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect SPECT myocardial perfusion scans?

Objectives: The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on myocardial perfusion scans (MPS) during the COVID-19 pandemic period. Method(s): We respectively reviewed single photon emission computed tomography myocardial perfusion scans (SPECT-MPS) performed between June and September 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic at the Nuclear Medicine Research Center at Mashhad University of Medical Sciences. The findings of stress SPECT-MPS studies acquired in the corresponding months of 2019 were also evaluated for direct comparison. Result(s): In COVID-19 pandemic compared to period prior to the pandemic, no difference was observed in terms of age range of patients under study or their cardiovascular risk factors, except smoking which underwent a significant increase during the COVID-19 pandemic ( 19% vs. 13% , p = 0.009). While the number of patients with non-angina (19% vs. 31%, p = 0.000) or typical (11% vs. 19%, p = 0.000) chest pain significantly decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic, atypical (42% vs. 25%, p = 0.000) chest pain cases showed an increasing number. By considering pretest probability of the patients (high, intermediate and low/very low), during the COVID-19 period, cases of high pretest probability decreased (6% vs. 18%, p = 0.000) and intermediate pretest probability patients also increased (64% vs. 55%, p = 0.005) while low/very low pretest probability cases showed no changes between the two periods. All types of MPS stress tests in the COVID-19 period were pharmacological compared to exercise stress test. No statistically significant difference on the myocardial ischemia or cardiomyopathy between patients between the two periods was observed. Summed stress score (SSS) and summed rest score (SRS) was similar over the two periods,while summed difference score (SDS) significantly increased over the course of COVID-19, confirming a non- increasing pattern of myocardial ischemia. Conclusion(s): Previous research underscores the fact that the number of stress SPECT-MPS studies was significantly reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the corresponding months prior to the pandemic [1, 2]. Our study concluded that all types of MPS stress tests in the COVID-19 period were pharmacological. This is due to the fact that all related recommendations published in the literature [3] highlighted the avoidance of exercise stress tests during the COVID-19 pandemic to reduce the risk of droplet exposure. During the COVID-19 pandemic, patients in two ends of the spectrum (e.g., non-angina & typical chest pain) were referred less for MPS. However, patients in the middle of the spectrum (e.g., atypical chest pain) underwentMPS less frequently. Myocardial ischemia and cardiomyopathy were not decreased or increased in patients over the COVID-19 period.

The value of probabilistic forecasting in emergency medical resource planning under uncertainty

PurposeMost epidemic transmission forecasting methods can only provide deterministic outputs. This study aims to show that probabilistic forecasting, in contrast, is suitable for stochastic demand modeling and emergency medical resource planning under uncertainty.Design/methodology/approachTwo probabilistic forecasting methods, i.e. quantile regression convolutional neural network and kernel density estimation, are combined to provide the conditional quantiles and conditional densities of infected populations. The value of probabilistic forecasting in improving decision performances and controlling decision risks is investigated by an empirical study on the emergency medical resource planning for the COVID-19 pandemic.FindingsThe managerial implications obtained from the empirical results include (1) the optimization models using the conditional quantile or the point forecasting result obtain better results than those using the conditional density;(2) for sufficient resources, decision-makers' risk preferences can be incorporated to make tradeoffs between the possible surpluses and shortages of resources in the emergency medical resource planning at different quantile levels;and (3) for scarce resources, the differences in emergency medical resource planning at different quantile levels greatly decrease or disappear because of the existing of forecasting errors and supply quantity constraints.Originality/valueVery few studies concern probabilistic epidemic transmission forecasting methods, and this is the first attempt to incorporate deep learning methods into a two-phase framework for data-driven emergency medical resource planning under uncertainty. Moreover, the findings from the empirical results are valuable to select a suitable forecasting method and design an efficient emergency medical resource plan.

Predicting the infection probability distribution due to airborne and droplet transmission

In this study, a method was proposed to predict the infection probability distribution rather than the room-averaged value. The infection probability by airborne transmission was predicted based on the CO2 concentration. The infection probability by droplet transmission was predicted based on occupant position information. Applying the proposed method to an actual office confirmed that it could be used for quantitatively predicting the infection probability by integrating the ventilation efficiency and distance between occupants. The infection probability by airborne transmission was relatively high in a zone where the amount of outdoor air supply was relatively small. The infection probability by droplet transmission varied with the position of the occupants. The ability of the proposed method to analyze the relative effectiveness of countermeasures for airborne transmission and droplet transmission was verified in this study. © 2022 17th International Conference on Indoor Air Quality and Climate, INDOOR AIR 2022. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of infection probability in a multiroom office space using computational fluid dynamics coupled with Wells-Riley model

The current COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of health safety assessment in various indoor scenarios. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) combined with a modified Wells-Riley equation provides a powerful tool to analyse local infection probability in an indoor space. Compared to a single infection probability characterising the space in the traditional Wells-Riley model, the coupled approach provides a distribution of infection probability within the space. Furthermore, this approach avoids assuming a well-mixed state, usually related to Wells-Riley equation. This study compares displacement and mixing ventilation strategies with four different ventilation rates to assess the local quanta concentrations modelled using passive scalar transport approach. The simulation results are processed to also account for the effect of wearing masks and vaccinations. The result show that a well-designed displacement ventilation system can significantly reduce infection probability compared to mixing ventilation system at similar airflow rate. Additionally, the results emphasised the importance of wearing mask and getting vaccinated as a means of reducing infection probability. © 2022 17th International Conference on Indoor Air Quality and Climate, INDOOR AIR 2022. All rights reserved.

Clinicians' Levels of Experience and Roles Influence the Decisions Made in Telephone Clinic Consultations in Rheumatology

Background/Aims Since the outbreak of COVID-19, clinicians adapted by switching from face-to-face to remote consultations in order to limit transmission and continue delivering high-quality outpatient services. We aimed to investigate patient- and clinician-related factors which may affect outcomes in follow-up telephone consultations. Methods Patients who attended follow-up clinic appointments via telephone consultations in the month of March 2022 were retrospectively evaluated. Data collected were demographics, main active diagnosis, current treatment and the clinicians' grade. Factors associated with categorical outcomes i.e. decision to request a subsequent face-toface appointment, investigations, referrals to other specialties, and to discharge a patient, were assessed using univariate logistic regression analysis. Univariate linear regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with the length of follow-up intervals. Results 314 patients were included;218 (69%) female, median (IQR) age 63 (53- 72) years. The most common diagnosis was rheumatoid arthritis (39%). 66% of patients were on DMARDs and 16% were on steroids. There were 48 (15.3%) requests for a subsequent face-to-face appointment and 28 (8.9%) discharges. There were more investigations (20.4%) requested compared to referrals (4.5%). Specialist nurses (SpNs) were the single largest group who conducted the telephone consultations (46%). SpNs were more likely to request face-to-face appointments [odds ratio (OR) 2.16 95%CI (1.16, 4.12) P=0.017] and investigations [OR 1.77 (1.02, 3.11) P=0.043] compared to other clinicians. In contrast, consultants were less likely to request investigations [OR 0.34 (0.16, 0.66) P=0.002]. Other factors associated with a subsequent face-to-face appointment were steroid [OR 3.00 (1.45, 6.02) P=0.002] and conventional DMARD therapy [OR 2.90 (1.50, 5.92) P=0.002]. In terms of discharges, consultants were more likely to discharge a patient [OR 4.05 (1.83, 9.46) P<0.001]. Patients with a diagnosis of inflammatory arthritis [OR 0.01 (0.00, 0.06) P<0.001] and on conventional DMARDs [OR 0.03 (0.00, 0.14) P<0.001] have a lower probability of being discharged. In terms of specialty referrals, there were no significant factors identified. An analysis of 197 clinic letters which specified follow-up intervals found that consultants were more likely to request longer follow-up intervals [beta coefficient 0.32 (0.13, 0.50) P<0.001] whereas SpNs were more likely to request shorter follow-up intervals [beta coefficient -0.52 (-0.65, -0.39), P<0.001]. Conclusion These findings suggest that clinicians' experiences and roles may influence the decisions made following a telephone clinic consultation. For example, SpNs are usually involved in drugmonitoring and therefore, have a higher likelihood to request face-to-face reviews, shorter followup intervals and investigations. The consultant's level of experience may explain the higher probability of discharging patients and the lower probability of requesting investigations. Further studies over a longer duration are needed to determine other factors which may affect the clinical decisions made from telephone clinic consultations.

THE STUDY OF THE DYNAMICS OF CLINICAL AND LABORATORY-INSTRUMENTAL PARAMETERS IN HYPERTENSIVE PATIENTS WITH OBESITY WHO UNDERWENT COVID-19-ASSOCIATED PNEUMONIA

BACKGROUND: According to the results of the ESSE-RF study, the frequency of obesity in the population reached 29.7%. Obesity is one of the main risk factors for the development of cardiovascular diseases. Features of the course of COVID-19 in patients with obesity is a very urgent problem. AIM: The aim of the study was a comparative investigation of clinical and laboratory-instrumental parameters in AH patients with or without obesity who had COVID-19 associated pneumonia, to identify the role of obesity as a potential predictor of post-COVID cardiovascular complications 3 months after discharge from the hospital. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Materials and methods. The study included 174 patients with COVID-19-associated pneumonia. Group 1 included 78 patients with AH without obesity, group 2 - 96 patients with AH and obesity. All patients were tested with a blood sample at the time of admission and 3 months after discharge from the hospital. We assessed parameters of general blood test, biochemistry, hemostasis, inflammation biomarkers - concentration of C-reactive protein (CRP), highly sensitive CRP (hs-CRP), homocysteine, IL-6, etc. All patients initially underwent computed tomography of the chest. In both groups, 24-hour blood pressure monitoring was performed using BPLaB device, according to the standard protocol;echocardiography using an expert class ultrasound diagnostic system Vivid S70. The study is registered with the Clinical Trials.gov database Identifier: NCT04501822. RESULT(S): Results. The biomarker that significantly distinguished the both groups of patients, as well as subgroups according to the degree of obesity was the concentration of maxCRP and hs-CRP, which was significantly higher in group 2. In addition, the registered maximum values of MPO, NT-proBNP, IL-1,6, TNA-alpha and NRL parameters in group 2 of patients with 2-3 degrees of obesity, may indicate the highest probability of developing delayed adverse cardiovascular complications in this group of patients. Mean systolic blood pressure, variability of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and heart rate at night were significantly higher in AH patients with obesity. Numerous correlations of obesity with laboratory and instrumental parameters have been registered, which may indicate an increased likelihood of delayed unwanted cardiovascular complications in this particular group of patients. Multiple regression showed that obesity is an independent predictor of an increase in LDH, hs-CRP and right atrium. CONCLUSION(S): Dynamic control of the studied parameters in patients with AH and OB registered an increased concentration of CRP at the initial stage and 3 months after treatment, with a general trend towards a decrease in the increased initial structural parameters of ECHO CG. The logistic regression method showed that the presence of OB in patients with AH is an independent factor causing increased levels of immune inflammation (CRP), a marker of tissue destruction (LDH), and load on the right atrium.Copyright © Endocrinology Research Centre, 2022.

A Rare Cause of Enteritis in an Adult Male

Introduction: IgA vasculitis is more commonly seen in the pediatric population than in adults. Rarely IgA vasculitis is associated with malignancy, most commonly solid tumor malignancies, although there are case reports of association with hematologic malignancies. We report a case of large B-cell lymphoma mimicking IgA vasculitis in a 33-year-old immunosuppressed male with a prior history of IgA vasculitis. Case Description/Methods: A 33-year-old Caucasian male post renal transplant from reflux nephropathy on chronic immunosuppression was hospitalized for postprandial epigastric abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea. Two years prior, he was admitted for the same symptoms, palpable purpura of the lower extremities and elevated serum IgA. Enteroscopy had shown duodenal and jejunal ulceration with biopsies staining positive for IgA, confirming IgA vasculitis. He had complete resolution with a steroid taper. His current presentation had resulted in multiple hospital admissions, but empiric trial of steroids failed to alleviate symptoms. Vitals were normal and exam was notable for epigastric tenderness. Labs were notable for WBC 19.00 x103/cmm with normal differential, hemoglobin 9.2 gm/dL (prior 11.0 gm/dL), CRP 20.7 mg/L, serum creatinine 2.7 mg/dL (prior 1.5 mg/dL), and urinalysis with proteinuria, sterile pyuria, and hematuria. CTA abdomen/pelvis revealed thickening of the duodenum with shotty mesenteric lymph nodes without ischemia. Enteroscopy revealed an erythematous duodenum and jejunum (figure A). Jejunal biopsy (figure B) revealed CD20 positive cells consistent with DLCBL (figure C). He was seen by oncology and treated with R-CHOP but later unfortunately expired due to COVID-19 complications. Discussion(s): Non small cell lung cancer and renal cell carcinoma are most commonly associated with IgA vasculitis. It may also be seen in both Hodgkin and Non-Hodgkin lymphomas in adult patients. If IgA vasculitis occurs after a malignancy is diagnosed, it may indicate that metastasis has occurred. Malignancy associated IgA vasculitis is more likely to have an incomplete response to steroids and requires treatment of the underlying malignancy to achieve remission. Our case illustrates posterior probability error and premature closure cognitive biases. We should consider alternative diagnoses rather than anchor on prior diagnoses even when presentations are similar. Our case also highlights the importance of considering occult malignancy in adults with diagnosis of IgA vasculitis.

Girft in Action: Advanced Practice Physiotherapist and Advanced Practice Nurse Expertise Provides Valuable Triage and Assessment Clinics for Non-Urgent Rheumatology Referrals

Background/Aims Rheumatology referrals classified as non-urgent/routine are commonly non-inflammatory conditions or medically non-urgent and can have significant waiting times for appointments. These waits were further escalated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Early intervention for noninflammatory conditions can be crucial to good outcomes and long wait-times can have significant adverse impacts while appropriate care pathways are determined. Recent UK GIRFT recommendations include using non-medical health professional expertise in assessment and management pathways to support right place, right time, right care. This study evaluated effectiveness, impacts and patient experiences of Advanced Practice Physiotherapist (APP) and Advanced Practice Nurse (APN) Triage and Assessment Clinics for routine new referrals. Methods The non-urgent/routine referral waiting list was e-triaged by a Rheumatology APP and APN supported by clinical record searches. Patients were contacted by telephone to update on clinical status and appointment requirements determined. Triage criteria were applied to determine new referrals suitable for APP and APN Rheumatology clinics, which included low likelihood of inflammatory disease or new referrals for known diagnosis/stable conditions. Clinics were undertaken with collocated Consultant clinical supervision. Assessment findings were discussed and management agreed, or seen if needed. With waiting list attrition, clinics were expanded to include Consultantdetermined stable condition reviews and follow-up reviews for nonsuspected inflammatory disease. Results At 01 July 2021, 214 new routine referrals were waiting a Consultant appointment (n=103 over 2yrs). Since service initiation, clinic outcomes to date include: 69% (n=243/358) new routine referrals discharged to GP or directed to right pathway with information, advice and self-management resources;8% (n=29) escalated to urgent;3% (11/358) with medical complexity remained on Consultant waitlist. Most common presentations seen included: Osteoarthritis (general or hand);Back and other spinal pain;Fibromyalgia;Persistent Fatigue and Widespread Pain;JHS/hEDS;Positive ANA without clinical features;Musculoskeletal conditions- other. To date, no patients have been re-referred and 329 new patient and 89 follow-up Consultant direct consultations have been spared. There is currently no wait-time for non-urgent/routine appointments. Patient experience feedback on the service has offered a 100% recommendation to continue and expressed highly positive experiences with the MDT approach. Patients value the breadth of expertise and care support, and the timely, thorough and professional service provided. Conclusion Rheumatology non-urgent/routine new referrals with low probability of underlying autoimmune conditions may be effectively and efficiently managed in a collaborative model using an advanced practice physiotherapist and nurse. This innovation has expanded a traditionally medical pathway to an MDT model utilising value-adding nonmedical expertise in service delivery. It has enhanced interdisciplinary learning and is a valued, collaborative approach to patient care. The initiative provides support to GIRFT recommendations of using an MDT skill-set to support improved patient access, service efficiencies and earlier intervention.

Progress towards ending HIV transmission in England by 2030

Background: England is committed to ending HIV transmission by 2030. The HIV Action Plan (2021) set an interim ambition to reduce HIV transmission by 80% to 600 new diagnoses first made in England by 2025. Here we present the progress between 2019 (baseline) and 2021, interpreted in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Method(s): People newly diagnosed with HIV were reported to the HIV and AIDS Reporting Section (HARS). The annual number of people having an HIV test in all sexual health services (SHS) including online testing were reported using GUMCAD. HIV diagnoses among people previously diagnosed abroad were excluded (25%). Result(s): New HIV diagnoses first made in England fell by 32% from 2,986 in 2019 to 1,987 in 2020, but plateaued in 2021 (2,023). Among gay/bisexual men, HIV diagnoses plateaued in 2021 (721) after a fall of 45% between 2019 and 2020, from 1,262 to 699. After a fall in HIV testing in 2020 (from 156,631 in 2019 to 144,800 in 2020), the number of people tested in 2021 (178,466) exceeded pre-COVID-19 levels. This suggests a decline in HIV incidence supported by a CD4 back calculation model (80% probability of a decline for the period 2019-2021), but at a slowing rate. Among heterosexual adults, new HIV diagnoses first made in England in 2021 also plateaued (798) following a 31% decrease (from 1,109 in 2019 to 761 in 2020). However, HIV testing coverage has not recovered to pre- COVID-19 levels (628,607 in 2019, 441,017 in 2020 and 489,727 in 2021). This provides no evidence of a fall in incidence in this population. Conclusion(s): A reduction by 360 new diagnoses first made in England year on year from 2022 onwards is required to meet the HIV Action Plan ambition. Despite an estimated 4,500 people with undiagnosed HIV and extremely high levels of antiretroviral therapy and viral suppression, PrEP access remains unequal. HIV testing numbers, which were affected by COVID-19 pandemic, have recovered in gay/bisexual men, but not among heterosexual adults. While the interim ambition is within reach for gay/bisexual men, PrEP and testing levels must be scaled up in heterosexual adults.

Case Report on a Rare Malignancy: Anorectal Melanoma

Introduction: Melanoma of the rectum is an extremely rare disease. The median survival rate is 2-5 years. Current treatment for this aggressive cancer is resection if possible and consider adjuvant or neoadjuvant radiotherapy;immunotherapy in nonresectable cases. Given the rapid spread of disease due to its submucosal growth and metastasis pattern, there is low success rates with treatments. Case Description/Methods: An 84-year-old male presented to the emergency department with an acute COVID-19 infection. The patient was also found to have gram-negative septicemia on blood cultures, so a CT abdomen/pelvis was performed (Figure 1a). The CT showed rectal wall thickening. A flexible sigmoidoscopy was planned for a future outpatient visit after recovering from his acute infection. The patient, however, developed an acute onset of dyspnea and had a high probability V/Q scan while in the hospital. He was started on anticoagulation, and shortly after starting therapy the patient developed bright red rectal bleeding. Due to the new onset of rectal bleeding it was decided to expedite the sigmoidoscopy. The sigmoidoscopy was performed in the hospital showing an ulcerated partially black pigmented non- obstructing medium-sized mass that was partially circumferential involving one-third of the lumen (Figure 1b). A biopsy of the lesion was taken using cold-forceps. The pathology stained positive for S100 consistent with melanoma. The diagnosis of anorectal melanoma was made, and colorectal surgery was consulted. The patient was deemed not to be a surgical candidate secondary to age and active COVID-19 infection. Oncology was consulted, and it was decided to start the patient on radiation and immunotherapy with a PD-1 inhibitor. Discussion(s): The symptoms of anorectal melanoma can be subtle and in this case report completely asymptomatic. Symptoms to be aware of are rectal bleeding and tenesmus. Diagnosing melanoma on sigmoidoscopy can be challenging as most tumors are not pigmented. Biopsies should be taken and sent for immunohistochemical staining for S100, if positive the patient should have a PET scan. Treatment choices for the tumor are based on staging. In a resectable tumor sphincter-saving local excision with radiotherapy to the site of the tumor and the pericolic and inguinal lymphatics is recommended. For unresectable tumors or tumors with distant metastasis, immunotherapy with PD-1 inhibitors (nivolumab and ipilimumab) is an emerging treatment choice.

Method for Quantitative Assessment of Protective Immunity against Sars-Cov-2, Its Duration and Antibody Dynamics

The level and duration of protective immunity are often analyzed qualitatively or semi-quantitatively. The same strategy is applied to the analysis of antibody dynamics. At some point in time t after exposure or immunization, the presence of immunity against the infection is inferred from the level of specific antibodies by comparing it to a reference value. This approach does not account for the stochastic nature of human disease after exposure to a pathogen. At the same time, it is not fully clear what antibody level should be considered protective. The aim of this study was to develop a mathematical model for quantitative determination of protective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 and its duration. We demonstrate that the problem of describing protective immunity in quantitative terms can be broken down into 2 interrelated problems: describing the quantitative characteristics of a pathogen's virulence (in our case, the pathogen is SARS-CoV-2) and describing the dynamics of antibody titers in a biological organism. Below, we provide solutions for these problems and identify parameters of the model which describes such dynamics. Using the proposed model, we offer a theoretical solution to the problem of protective immunity and its duration. We also note that in order to quantitatively determine the studied parameters in a homogenous population group, it is necessary to know 5 parameters of the bivariate probability density function for correlated continuous random variables: the infective dose of the pathogen and the antibody titer at which the disease develops and which are still unknown.Copyright © Extreme Medicine.All right reserved.

Probability of Infectious Disease in Humans during Epidemic

Popular SIR models and their modifications used to generate predictions about epidemics and, specifically, the COVID-19 pandemic, are inadequate. The aim of this study was to find the laws describing the probability of infection in a biological object. Using theoretical methods of research based on the probability theory, we constructed the laws describing the probability of infection in a human depending on the infective dose and considering the temporal characteristics of a given infection. The so-called generalized time-factor law, which factors in the time of onset and the duration of an infectious disease, was found to be the most general. Among its special cases are the law describing the probability of infection developing by some point in time t, depending on the infective dose, and the law that does not factor in the time of onset. The study produced a full list of quantitative characteristics of pathogen virulence. The laws described in the study help to solve practical tasks and should lie at the core of mathematical epidemiological modeling.Copyright © 2022 Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproduction. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Intravenous Ozonated Normal Saline in the Treatment of Severe COVID-19 Disease: A randomized control trial

Background: There is still no specific treatment strategy for COVID-19 other than supportive management. The potential biological benefits of ozone therapy include reduced tissue hypoxia, decreased hypercoagulability, modulated immune function by inhibiting inflammatory mediators, improved phagocytic function, and impaired viral replication. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of intravenous ozonated normal saline on patients with severe COVID-19 disease. Method(s): In this study, a single centralized randomized clinical trial was conducted on 80 hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19. The patients were selected by random allocation method and divided into two groups A and B. In group A (control group), patients were given standard drug treatment, and in group B (intervention group), patients received ozonated normal saline in addition to the standard drug treatment. In the intervention group, 400 mL of normal saline was weighed by 40 mug/ kg of body weight and was injected into patients within 15 to 30 minutes (80 to 120 drops per minute). This process was done daily every morning for a week. Primary and secondary outcomes of the disease included changes in the following items: length of hospital stay, inflammatory markers including C-reactive protein (CRP), clinical recovery, arterial blood oxygen status, improvement of blood disorders such as leukopenia and leukocytosis, duration of ventilator attachment, and rapid clearance of lung lesions on CT scans. The need for intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalization, the length of ICU stay, and the mortality rate in patients of the two groups was compared. Result(s): According to the results of the initial outcome variable analysis, the probability of discharge of patients who received the normal ozonated saline intervention was 33% higher than patients who did not receive this intervention;however, this relationship was not statistically significant (HR = 0.67, 95%, CI = 0.42-1.06, P value = 0.089). The chance of ICU hospitalization in patients of the intervention group was three times more than that of the comparison group, but this relationship was not significant (odds ratio = 4.4 95% CI = 1.32-14.50, P value = 0.016). The use of ozonated normal saline was found to increase the risk of death by 1.5 times but this relationship was not statistically significant (odds ratio = 1.5, 95% CI = .24-9.75, P value = 0.646). Ozonated normal saline had a significant effect on changes in respiration rate (in the intervention group the number of breaths was decreased) and the erythrocyte sedimentation rate (in the intervention group the erythrocyte sedimentation rate was increased);however, it had no significant effect on other indicators. Conclusion(s): The present study showed that ozone therapy in hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19 could help improve some primary and secondary outcomes of the disease. Governments and health policymakers should make ozone therapy an available care service so that the need for advanced treatment facilities decreases;consequently, this measure may improve patient safety, prevent lung tissue destruction, and control cytokine storms in patients. Additionally, health decision-makers need to aim for the effective clinical improvement of patients, especially severe ones, and the reduction of their mortality. However, further large-scale multicenter studies with larger sample sizes considering drug side effects and other variables influencing the clinical course of COVID-19 can provide more information on the effectiveness and importance of ozone therapy.Copyright © 2023 The Author(s);Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

Accelerated Failure Time (Aft) Model: Determining the Factors Associated in the Recovery of Patients Diagnosed with Covid-19

In this survival study, the range on the days of observation is from January 2020 to December 2020 consisting of the patients diagnosed with COVID-19. An accelerated failure time (AFT) model is used to identify covariates associated with recovery time (days from result of test to death/recovery of patients). AFT models with five different distributions (exponential, log-normal, Weibull, generalized gamma, and log-logistic) are generated. Akaike's information criterion (AIC) is used to identify the most suitable model. The total number of patients used in this study is 66142 and is broken into 2116 events and 64026 censored patients. This study shows that generalized gamma having the lowest AIC value made the best fit of the model. The covariates used in determining the factors associated to the recovery of patient are age, sex, admitted and quarantined. The model shows that when patients are being quarantined, the recovery time of patients increases.

Characterizations of COVID-19 risk: review and suggestions for improvement of current practices

To handle the risks related to coronavirus and the COVID-19 disease, governments worldwide have adopted different policies and strategies. These policies and strategies build on various approaches and methods to assess and convey the risks. This paper looks more closely into these approaches and methods. We review and discuss practices in four countries (Norway, the UK, the US and Sweden), focusing on the approaches, methods and models used to assess and describe the risks related to COVID-19. The main aims are to present some current thinking, reveal differences and suggest areas for improvement. The paper concludes that current practices can be enhanced by incorporating ideas and approaches from contemporary risk science, particularly in relation to how to treat uncertainties and reflect degrees of knowledge.

Challenges in the Diagnosis and Investigation of Giant Cell Arteritis during Covid- 19 Pandemic Restrictions: Does the Southend Pretest Probability Score Help to Guide Clinical Diagnosis?

Background/Aims During 2020-2021 many usual hospital services were affected as focus turned towards managing COVID-19. Elective outpatient surgery ceased and rheumatology staff were redeployed to covid wards. This reduced the availability of temporal artery biopsy (TAB) and temporal artery ultrasound (TAUS) to aid in diagnosing giant cell arteritis (GCA). The rheumatology team making diagnoses of GCA or not-GCA were doing so often based entirely on clinical and laboratory findings. We aimed to determine referral patterns and investigations for suspected GCA during the covid pandemic, compare diagnoses at 6 months after initial assessment and retrospectively apply the Southend Pretest Probability Score (PTPS) and correlate with the diagnosis of GCA or not-GCA. Methods We reviewed all electronic referrals for suspected GCA from July 2020 - June 2021. Clinical details and investigations reviewed. PTPS applied giving a result of low, intermediate or high probability of GCA. Results 84 referrals for suspected GCA over 12 months. 20 diagnosed GCA/ large vessel vasculitis (LVV), 64 not-GCA. Peak referral months Nov 2020 and April 2021 with 13 and 16 referrals. Lowest in October 2020 with 1 referral. 57 female, 27 male. Mean age 70.1 years. 19% male referrals diagnosed GCA, 26% female diagnosed GCA. All LVV and PMR diagnoses were female. 27 TAUS, 6 TAB, 7 PET, 13 CT, 3 MRI performed. 30 patients had no additional investigations. Of 20 GCA;14 had supporting investigations, 6 were clinical diagnoses. All GCA diagnoses were consistent at 6 months. One not-GCA case was subsequently diagnosed with LVV on CTPET. All other not-GCA diagnoses were consistent at 6 months. The PTPS was retrospectively applied based on available clinical information in all except 2 cases, and compared to GCA/not-GCA diagnosis and investigations undertaken. Conclusion Referral numbers for suspected GCA were higher than previous years however the number of actual GCA diagnoses was similar. With limitations on diagnostic investigations due to covid, diagnoses of GCA with and without additional tests were accurate at 6 months, and correlated with a high probability score. The PTPS is a therefore valuable clinical tool in the assessment of GCA. (Table Presented).

Academic Framing of Computational Representations in the Virtual Classroom during Covid-19

Keywords: Agenda;Framing;Social representations;Expectations;Computer Introduction The development of research projects often requires the competition of computers, software and data analysis techniques, but the acceptance, appropriation and intensive use of them presents limitations in terms of utility and risk expectations [1]. Some explanatory models of human capital formation suggest that the formation of talent or intellectual capital in intangible assets of organizations is due to habitus [3]. [...]the predictive models of the social representations of these determinants have not been observed in the explanation of the relations with the intensive use of technologies, devices and electronic networks. [...]the objective of the present work was to establish the academic link relative to the social representations of computer computers, considering the dimensions of the organizational, educational and cognitive models. Methodology A documentary, retrospective and exploratory study was carried out with a selection of sources indexed to international repositories Table 1, considering the indexing period from 2019 to 2021, as well as the search by allusive keywords for negative (stigma, risk, rejection) and positive (utility, acceptance, appropriation) (Table 1) Content analysis and opinion matrices were used, considering the inclusion of findings, ratings and comparisons of coded data such as;-1 for negative dimensions (stigma, risk and rejection) and +1 for positive dimensions (utility, acceptance and appropriation) The qualitative data analysis package was used, considering equation (1) in which the contingency relations and the proportions of probabilities of taking risks in permissible thresholds of human capital formation stand out The contrast of the null hypotheses was made from the estimation of these parameters.

Placing Antimicrobial Resistance in the Context of Competing Public Health Priorities in Sub-Saharan Africa, a Perspective from Malawi

Antimicrobial resistance is a major threat to human health that is predicted to impact most heavily on sub-Saharan Africa, however there is a lack of clinical outcome data from drug-resistant infections in this setting. There are reasons to expect the COVID-19 pandemic to have both positive and negative impacts on AMR in Africa. We have recruited a series of prospective longitudinal cohorts from Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital (QECH), Blantyre, Malawi and the surrounding communities in the Southern Region of Malawi. The data from these cohorts has been used to describe the aetiology of febrile illness, the burden of antimicrobial resistance in this setting and the distribution of extended spectrum beta-lactamase producing bacteria in humans, animals and the environment. Amongst a cohort of patients presenting to QECH unwell with febrile illness, 67% were living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We identified a diagnosis in 145 of 225 (64%) participants, most commonly tuberculosis (TB;34%) followed by invasive bacterial infections (17%), arboviral infections (13%), and malaria (9%). In a second cohort with drug resistant infection, resistance to third-generation cephalosporins was associated with an increased probability of in-hospital mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.44, 95% CI 1.02-2.04), longer hospital stays (1.5 days, 1.0-2.0) and decreased probability of discharge alive (HR 0.31, 0.22-0.45). In the community cohorts, a paucity of environmental health infrastructure and materials for safe sanitation was identified across all sites and ESBL-Enterobacterales were isolated from 41.8% of human stool, 29.8% of animal stool and 66.2% of river water samples and was associated with the wet season, living in urban areas, advanced age and in household-animal interactions. Life threatening febrile illness is common in Blantyre however, diagnostics are few, however the COVID-19 pandemic has led to rapid expansion of diagnostic capacity. We are, however frequently treating the wrong bugs with ceftriaxone, further there was significant expansion of azithromycin demand and usage during the pandemic. Current management of sepsis has not been optimised and ceftriaxone use is promoting carriage of ESBL bacteria out of the hospital and ESBL E. coli and K. pneumoniae are ubiquitous in the community, where environmental hygiene infrastructure and community antimicrobial stewardship are critically lacking.Copyright © 2023

Post-COVID anxiety and its associated factors in Egyptian patients

Context Anxiety is one of the mood changes that occur postcoronavirus disease-2019 (post-COVID-19) and interfere with patients' daily activity. After supposed clinical and radiological improvement to COVID-19, some still experience somatic complaints such as sensation of dyspnea. Aims Evaluating the relation between COVID-19 survivors and anxiety and to what extent this could affect their functional status. Settings and design Ain Shams University Hospital, survey study. Patients and methods The survey included 120 patients post-COVID-19 one month or more and free symptoms attending Ain Shams University Hospitals Chest Outpatient Clinic for follow-up, 45% of them were in the age group 35-55 years, 56.7% were females, 78.3% had high education, and 27.5% were smokers. All included study participants were subjected to computed tomography of chest, oxygen saturation, State Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) Arabic version, and Modified Medical Research Council (MMRC) Dyspnea Scale. chi 2 -test (or Fisher's exact test) was used to compare data between different groups. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the correlation between the features of individuals and their degree of anxiety. Results The most annoying COVID-19 symptoms as reported by this study participants were body pains (32.5%). About 61.7% of participants had high-state anxiety and 51.7% had high-trait anxiety. The age group 20-34 years was significantly associated with higher frequency of moderate or high-state anxiety (P0.05), male sex was significantly associated with lower frequency of moderate or high-state anxiety compared with females (P0.05). Conclusions Age and sex were important association factors with the prevalence of anxiety in post-COVID-19 patients. Higher grades of dyspnea were associated with higher probability of development of moderate or severe post-COVID anxiety.Copyright © 2023 Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications. All rights reserved.