Developing Supply Chain Capabilities Through Digitalization and Viability for Controlling the Ripple Effect

The COVID-19 pandemic affected all industries and presented manufacturing firms with enormous challenges, with considerable changes in consumer demand for goods and services. Supply chain management disruption caused by the COVID-19 outbreak resulted in several socio-economic roadblocks. The slow propagation of disruption risk results in a ripple effect along the entire chain. The lack of resilience and risk management capability is the prime cause, attributed to the unavailability of digital resources, skills, and knowledge. The main objective of this article is to develop supply chain capability for disruption risk management and supply chain resilience for competitive gain in terms of controlling the ripple effect. The resource-based view approach was used to develop the theoretical structure in this article. Supply chain digitalization and viability provide necessary resources to develop the capability for managing risk and resilience to tackle the impact of disruptions due to pandemics, war, recession, and other such massive challenges on the supply chain. Seven hypotheses were proposed and evaluated for relevance using structural equation modeling (SEM). In total, 199 valid responses to a survey on SEM were gathered and examined using the AMOS V-21 software. Our research findings supported all the proposed hypotheses, thereby generating positive theoretical evidence for practitioners to digitalize their supply chain for enhanced supply chain capabilities and effective control of the ripple effect. IEEE

Exiting the COVID-19 pandemic: after-shock risks and avoidance of disruption tails in supply chains.

Entering the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on supply chains. Reacting to the pandemic and adaptation in the "new normal" have been challenging tasks. Exiting the pandemic can lead to some after-shock effects such as "disruption tails." While the research community has undertaken considerable efforts to predict the pandemic's impacts and examine supply chain adaptive behaviors during the pandemic, little is known about supply chain management in the course of pandemic elimination and post-disruption recovery. If capacity and inventory management are unaware of the after-shock risks, this can result in highly destabilized production-inventory dynamics and decreased performance in the post-disruption period causing product deficits in the markets and high inventory costs in the supply chains. In this paper, we use a discrete-event simulation model to investigate some exit strategies for a supply chain in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our model can inform managers about the existence and risk of disruption tails in their supply chains and guide the selection of post-pandemic recovery strategies. Our results show that supply chains with postponed demand and shutdown capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic are particularly prone to disruption tails. We then developed and examined two strategies to avoid these disruption tails. First, we observed a conjunction of recovery and supply chain coordination which mitigates the impact of disruption tails by demand smoothing over time in the post-disruption period. Second, we found a gradual capacity ramp-up prior to expected peaks of postponed demand to be an effective strategy for disruption tail control.

Typhoon eye effect versus ripple effect: the role of family size on mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: The recent outbreak of COVID-19 has impacted adversely upon the mental health of millions of people worldwide. Impacts on the mental health conditions and the associated predictors relating to adults in Pakistan, the fifth most populous country in the world, during the COVID-19 remain understudied. Our aim was to investigate distress, anxiety, and overall mental health and their associated predictors among Pakistani adults in this pandemic. We specifically examine mental health issues based on the distance from the epicenter, (a predictor that has revealed opposing evidence in other countries) based on the theories of typhoon eye effect and ripple effect. The sample consisted of 601 adults who were surveyed online about 2.5 months into the outbreak across Pakistan with varying distances from the epicenter of COVID-19 of Karachi. RESULTS: The results showed that 9.2 and 19.0% of the participants surpassed the cut-off criteria for distress and anxiety disorders, respectively. Overall, the distance from the epicenter positively predicted the mental health of adults in Pakistan, and family size negatively moderated this effect. The distance from the epicenter negatively predicted distress and anxiety disorders for adults in large families, which are quite common in Pakistan. CONCLUSION: The evidence of the study interestingly finds that the prediction of the mental health of people by their distance from the epicenter depends on family size. The evidence of this study can help to provide initial indicators for mental health care providers to screen vulnerable groups in Pakistan, a populous country that continues struggling to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ripple effect in the supply chain network: Forward and backward disruption propagation, network health and firm vulnerability.

A local disruption can propagate to forward and downward through the material flow and eventually influence the entire supply chain network (SCN). This phenomenon of ripple effect, immensely existing in practice, has received great interest in recent years. Moreover, forward and backward disruption propagations became major stressors for SCNs during the COVID-19 pandemic triggered by simultaneous and sequential supply and demand disruptions. However, current literature has paid less attention to the different impacts of the directions of disruption propagation. This study examines the disruption propagation through simulating simple interaction rules of firms inside the SCN. Specifically, an agent-based computational model is developed to delineate the supply chain disruption propagation behavior. Then, we conduct multi-level quantitative analysis to explore the effects of forward and backward disruption propagation, moderated by network structure, network-level health and node-level vulnerability. Our results demonstrate that it is practically important to differentiate between forward and backward disruption propagation, as they are distinctive in the associated mitigation strategies and in the effects on network and individual firm performance. Forward disruption propagation generally can be mitigated by substitute and backup supply and has greater impact on firms serving the assembly role and on the supply/assembly networks, whereas backward disruption propagation is normally mitigated by flexible operation and distribution and has bigger impact on firms serving the distribution role and on distribution networks. We further analyze the investment strategies in a dual-focal supply network under disruption propagation. We provide propositions to facilitate decision-making and summarize important managerial implications.

OR-methods for coping with the ripple effect in supply chains during COVID-19 pandemic: Managerial insights and research implications.

The COVID-19 pandemic unveils unforeseen and unprecedented fragilities in supply chains (SC). A primary stressor of SCs and their subsequent shocks derives from disruption propagation (i.e., the ripple effect) through related networks. In this paper, we conceptualize current state and future research directions on the ripple effect for pandemic context. We scrutinize the existing OR (Operational Research) studies published in international journals dealing with disruption propagation and structural dynamics in SCs. Our study pursues two major contributions in relation to two research questions. First, we collate state-of-the-art research on disruption propagation in SCs and identify a methodical taxonomy along with theories displaying their value and applications for coping with the impacts of pandemics on SCs. Second, we reveal and systemize managerial insights from theory used for operating (adapting) amid a pandemic and during times of recovery, along with becoming more resistant to future pandemics. Streamlining the literature allowed us to reveal several new research tensions and novel categorizations and classifications. The outcomes of our study show that methodical contributions and the resulting managerial insights can be categorized into three levels, i.e., network, process, and control. Our analysis reveals that adaptation capabilities play the most crucial role in managing the SCs under pandemic disruptions. Our findings depict how the existing OR methods can help coping with the ripple effect at five pandemic stages (i.e., Anticipation; Early Detection; Containment; Control and Mitigation; and Elimination) following the WHO classification. The outcomes and findings of our study can be used by industry and researchers alike to progress the decision-support systems guiding SCs amid the COVID-19 pandemic and toward recovery. Suggestions for future research directions are offered and discussed.

Impacts of epidemic outbreaks on supply chains: mapping a research agenda amid the COVID-19 pandemic through a structured literature review.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak shows that pandemics and epidemics can seriously wreak havoc on supply chains (SC) around the globe. Humanitarian logistics literature has extensively studied epidemic impacts; however, there exists a research gap in understanding of pandemic impacts in commercial SCs. To progress in this direction, we present a systematic analysis of the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on SCs guided by a structured literature review that collated a unique set of publications. The literature review findings suggest that influenza was the most visible epidemic outbreak reported, and that optimization of resource allocation and distribution emerged as the most popular topic. The streamlining of the literature helps us to reveal several new research tensions and novel categorizations/classifications. Most centrally, we propose a framework for operations and supply chain management at the times of COVID-19 pandemic spanning six perspectives, i.e., adaptation, digitalization, preparedness, recovery, ripple effect, and sustainability. Utilizing the outcomes of our analysis, we tease out a series of open research questions that would not be observed otherwise. Our study also emphasizes the need and offers directions to advance the literature on the impacts of the epidemic outbreaks on SCs framing a research agenda for scholars and practitioners working on this emerging research stream.

Geographical distance to the epicenter of Covid-19 predicts the burnout of the working population: Ripple effect or typhoon eye effect?

Covid-19 originated in Wuhan and rippled across China. We investigate how the geographical distance of working adults to the epicenter of Wuhan predicts their burnout - emotional, physical and mental exhaustion due to excessive and prolonged stress. Preliminary results of a survey of 308 working adults in 53 cities showed working adults' distance to the epicenter of Wuhan had an inverted U-shaped relationship with their burnout. Such results help to identify regions where people may need more psychiatric assistance, with direct implications for healthcare practitioners and policymakers.