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1.
J Infect Dis ; 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2189170

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Immune protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can be induced by natural infection or vaccination or both. Interaction between vaccine-induced immunity and naturally acquired immunity at the population level has been understudied. METHODS: We used regression models to evaluate whether the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines differed across states with different levels of naturally acquired immunity from March 2021 to April 2022 in the United States. Analysis was conducted for 3 evaluation periods separately (Alpha, Delta, and Omicron waves). As a proxy for the proportion of the population with naturally acquired immunity, we used either the reported seroprevalence or the estimated proportion of the population ever infected in each state. RESULTS: COVID-19 mortality decreased as coverage of >/=1 dose increased among people >/=65 years of age, and this effect did not vary by seroprevalence or proportion of the total population ever infected. Seroprevalence and proportion ever infected were not associated with COVID-19 mortality, after controlling for vaccine coverage. These findings were consistent in all evaluation periods. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination was associated with a sustained reduction in mortality at state level during the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron periods. The effect did not vary by naturally acquired immunity.

2.
Infectious diseases (London, England) ; : 1-5, 2023.
Article in English | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-2187933

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on the rates of the waning of antibody levels after two-dose and booster vaccination according to the different platforms of COVID-19 vaccines. METHOD(S): We enrolled healthcare workers (HCWs) in a tertiary care hospital who received homologous two-dose vaccination, followed by a homologous or heterologous booster mRNA vaccine. SARS-CoV-2 S1-specific IgG was measured using ELISA. A linear mixed regression model was used to compare the slope from the peak antibody titre to the lowest antibody titres 3months after vaccination. RESULT(S): A total of 113 HCWs (BNT162b2 (n=48 [42%]), ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (n=52 [46%]) or mRNA-1273 (n=13 [12%])) were enrolled in this prospective cohort study. More gradual antibody waning was observed over 3months with the two-dose ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (ChAdOx1) than with the two-dose BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 (p<0.001 and p=0.001, respectively). In addition, homologous mRNA-1273 booster induced a more durable antibody response than homologous BNT162b2 booster (p<0.001) or heterologous ChAdOx1-BNT162b2 booster (p<0.001). CONCLUSION(S): Two-dose homologous ChAdOx1 vaccination or homologous mRNA-1273 booster appears to induce more-durable antibody responses than 2-dose homologous mRNA vaccination, homologous BNT162b2 booster, or 2-dose ChAdOx1 followed by BNT62b2 booster, although our findings are based on the relatively short term (3-month) follow-up after the vaccinations and the evaluation of the slopes from different antibody peak levels. Further studies on long-term durability depending on the types of vaccines are needed.

3.
Trends in Molecular Medicine ; 2023.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2181694

ABSTRACT

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination significantly reduces morbidity and mortality, but has less impact on viral transmission rates, thus aiding viral evolution;and the longevity of vaccine-induced immunity rapidly declines. Immune responses in respiratory tract mucosal tissues are crucial for early control of infection, and can generate long-term antigen-specific protection with prompt recall responses. However, currently approved SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are not amenable to adequate respiratory mucosal delivery, particularly in the upper airways, which could account for the high vaccine breakthrough infection rates and limited duration of vaccine-mediated protection. In view of these drawbacks, we outline a strategy that has the potential to enhance both the efficacy and durability of existing SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, by inducing robust memory responses in the upper respiratory tract mucosa.

4.
Journal of Theoretical Biology ; 559:111384, 2023.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2159361

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) booster vaccination has been implemented globally in the midst of surges in infection due to the Delta and Omicron variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The objective of the present study was to present a framework to estimate the proportion of the population that is immune to symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection with the Omicron variant (immune proportion) in Japan, considering the waning of immunity resulting from vaccination and naturally acquired infection. We quantified the decay rate of immunity against symptomatic infection with Omicron conferred by the second and third doses of COVID-19 vaccine. We estimated the current and future vaccination coverage for the second and third vaccine doses from February 17, 2021 to August 1, 2022 and used data on the confirmed COVID-19 incidence from February 17, 2021 to April 10, 2022. From this information, we estimated the age-specific immune proportion over the period from February 17, 2021 to August 1, 2022. Vaccine-induced immunity, conferred by the second vaccine dose in particular, was estimated to rapidly wane. There were substantial variations in the estimated immune proportion by age group because each age cohort experienced different vaccination rollout timing and speed as well as a different infection risk. Such variations collectively contributed to heterogeneous immune landscape trajectories over time and age. The resulting prediction of the proportion of the population that is immune to symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection could aid decision-making on when and for whom another round of booster vaccination should be considered. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics”.

5.
J Infect Dis ; 2022 Nov 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2135336

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Understanding the immunity against omicron infection and severe outcomes conferred by Covid-19 vaccination, prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, and monoclonal antibody therapy will inform intervention strategies. METHODS: We considered 295,691 patients who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 at Cleveland Clinic between October 1, 2021 and January 31, 2022. We used logistic regression to investigate the association of vaccination and prior infection with the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and used Cox regression to investigate the association of vaccination, prior infection and monoclonal antibody therapy with the risks of intensive care unit (ICU) stay and death. RESULTS: Vaccination and prior infection were less effective against omicron than delta infection but provided strong protection against ICU admission and death. Boosting greatly increased vaccine effectiveness against omicron infection and severe outcomes, though the effectiveness waned rapidly over time. Monoclonal antibody therapy considerably reduced the risks of ICU admission and death. Finally, the relatively low mortality of the omicron variant was due to both the reduced lethality of this variant and the increased population immunity acquired from booster vaccination and previous infection. CONCLUSIONS: Booster vaccination and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection provide strong protection against ICU admission and death from omicron infection. Monoclonal antibody therapy is also beneficial.

6.
J Infect Dis ; 2022 Nov 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2135332

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The impact variant-specific immune evasion and waning protection have on declining COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness remains unclear. Using whole-genome-sequencing (WGS), we examined the contribution of these factors on the decline observed following the introduction of the Delta variant. Further, we evaluated the utility of calendar-period-based classification as an alternative to WGS. METHODS: We conducted a test-negative-case-control study among people who received SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing in the Yale New Haven Health System between April 1 and August 24, 2021. Variant classification was performed using WGS and calendar-period. RESULTS: Overall, 2,029 cases (RT-PCR positive, sequenced samples [infections]) and 343,985 controls (negative RT-PCRs) were included. VE 14-89 days after 2nd dose was significantly higher against WGS-classified Alpha-infection (84.4%, CI: 75.6-90.0%) than Delta-infection (68.9%, CI: 58.0-77.1%, p-value = 0.013). The odds of WGS-classified Delta-infection were significantly higher 90-149 than 14-89 days after 2nd dose (p-value = 0.003). VE estimates against calendar-period-classified infections approximated estimates against WGS-classified infections, however, calendar-period-based classification was subject to outcome misclassification (35%: Alpha-period, 4%: Delta-period). CONCLUSIONS: Both waning protection and variant-specific immune evasion contributed to the lower effectiveness. While VE estimates against calendar-period-classified infections mirrored those against WGS-classified infections, our analysis highlights the need for WGS when variants are co-circulating and misclassification is likely.

7.
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering ; 20(1):179-212, 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2110346

ABSTRACT

Three safe and effective vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have played a major role in combating COVID-19 in the United States. However, the effectiveness of these vaccines and vaccination programs has been challenged by the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. A new mathematical model is formulated to assess the impact of waning and boosting of immunity against the Omicron variant in the United States. To account for gradual waning of vaccine-derived immunity, we considered three vaccination classes that represent high, moderate and low levels of immunity. We showed that the disease-free equilibrium of the model is globally-asymptotically, for two special cases, if the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Simulations of the model showed that vaccine-derived herd immunity can be achieved in the United States via a vaccination-boosting strategy which entails fully vaccinating at least 59% of the susceptible populace followed by the boosting of about 72% of the fully-vaccinated individuals whose vaccine-derived immunity has waned to moderate or low level. In the absence of boosting, waning of immunity only causes a marginal increase in the average number of new cases at the peak of the pandemic, while boosting at baseline could result in a dramatic reduction in the average number of new daily cases at the peak. Specifically, for the fast immunity waning scenario (where both vaccine-derived and natural immunity are assumed to wane within three months), boosting vaccine-derived immunity at baseline reduces the average number of daily cases at the peak by about 90% (in comparison to the corresponding scenario without boosting of the vaccine-derived immunity), whereas boosting of natural immunity (at baseline) only reduced the corresponding peak daily cases (in comparison to the corresponding scenario without boosting of natural immunity) by approximately 62%. Furthermore, boosting of vaccine-derived immunity is more beneficial (in reducing the burden of the pandemic) than boosting of natural immunity. Finally, boosting vaccine-derived immunity increased the prospects of altering the trajectory of COVID-19 from persistence to possible elimination.

8.
BMC Infect Dis ; 22(1): 816, 2022 Nov 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2108747

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The elderly are highly vulnerable to severe COVID-19. Waning immunity and emergence of Omicron have caused concerns about reduced effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. The objective was to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against severe COVID-19 among the elderly. METHODS: This nationwide, register-based cohort analysis included all residents aged 70 years and over in Finland. The follow-up started on December 27, 2020, and ended on March 31, 2022. The outcomes of interest were COVID-19-related hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) admission timely associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. VE was estimated as one minus the hazard ratio comparing the vaccinated and unvaccinated and taking into account time since vaccination. Omicron-specific VE was evaluated as the effectiveness observed since January 1, 2022. RESULTS: The cohort included 896,220 individuals. Comirnaty (BioNTech/Pfizer) VE against COVID-19-related hospitalization was 93% (95% CI 89-95%) and 85% (95% CI 82-87%) 14-90 and 91-180 days after the second dose; VE increased to 95% (95% CI 94-96%) 14-60 days after the third dose. VE of other homologous and heterologous three dose series was similar. Protection against severe COVID-19 requiring ICU treatment was even better. Since January 1, 2022, Comirnaty VE was 98% (95% CI 92-99%) and 92% (95% CI 87-95%) 14-90 and 91-180 days after the second and 98% (95% CI 95-99%) 14-60 days after the third dose. CONCLUSIONS: VE against severe COVID-19 is high among the elderly. It waned slightly after two doses, but a third restored the protection. VE against severe COVID-19 remained high even after the emergence of Omicron.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Aged , Humans , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Vaccines , Finland/epidemiology , Vaccine Efficacy , SARS-CoV-2
9.
J Travel Med ; 2022 Nov 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2107532

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Waning protection against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants by pre-existing antibodies elicited due to current vaccination or natural infection is a global concern. Whether this is due to the waning of immunity to SARS-COV-2 remains unclear. AIM: We aimed to investigate the dynamics of antibody isotype responses among vaccinated naïve (VN) and naturally infected (NI) individuals. METHODS: We followed up antibody levels in COVID-19 mRNA-vaccinated subjects without prior infection (VN, n = 100) in two phases: phase-I (P-I) at ~ 1.4 and phase-II (P-II) at ~ 5.3 months. Antibody levels were compared to those of unvaccinated and naturally infected subjects (NI, n = 40) at ~ 1.7 (P-1) and 5.2 (P-II) months post-infection. Neutralizing antibodies (NTAb), anti-S-RBD-IgG, -IgM, and anti-S-IgA isotypes were measured. RESULTS: The VN group elicited significantly greater antibody responses (p < 0.001) than the NI group at P-I, except for IgM. In the VN group, a significant waning in antibody response was observed in all isotypes. There was about ~ a 4-fold decline in NTAb levels (p < 0.001), anti-S-RBD-IgG (~5-folds, p < 0.001), anti-S-RBD-IgM (~6-folds, p < 0.001), and anti-S1-IgA (2-folds, p < 0.001). In the NI group, a significant but less steady decline was notable in S-RBD-IgM (~2-folds, p < 0.001), and a much smaller but significant difference in NTAb (<2-folds, p < 0.001) anti-S-RBD IgG (<2-folds, p = 0.005). Unlike the VN group, the NI group mounted a lasting anti-S1-IgA response with no significant decline. Anti-S1-IgA, which were ~ 3 folds higher in VN subjects compared to NI in P-1 (p < 0.001), dropped to almost the same levels, with no significant difference observed between the two groups in P-II. CONCLUSION: While double-dose mRNA vaccination boosted antibody levels, vaccinated individuals' 'boost' was relatively short-lived.

10.
Viruses ; 14(11)2022 Oct 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2099850

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Investigating antibody titers in individuals who have been both naturally infected with SARS-CoV-2 and vaccinated can provide insight into antibody dynamics and correlates of protection over time. METHODS: Human coronavirus (HCoV) IgG antibodies were measured longitudinally in a prospective cohort of qPCR-confirmed, COVID-19 recovered individuals (k = 57) in British Columbia pre- and post-vaccination. SARS-CoV-2 and endemic HCoV antibodies were measured in serum collected between Nov. 2020 and Sept. 2021 (n = 341). Primary analysis used a linear mixed-effects model to understand the effect of single dose vaccination on antibody concentrations adjusting for biological sex, age, time from infection and vaccination. Secondary analysis investigated the cumulative incidence of high SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike IgG seroreactivity equal to or greater than 5.5 log10 AU/mL up to 105 days post-vaccination. No re-infections were detected in vaccinated participants, post-vaccination by qPCR performed on self-collected nasopharyngeal specimens. RESULTS: Bivariate analysis (complete data for 42 participants, 270 samples over 472 days) found SARS-CoV-2 spike and RBD antibodies increased 14-56 days post-vaccination (p < 0.001) and vaccination prevented waning (regression coefficient, B = 1.66 [95%CI: 1.45-3.46]); while decline of nucleocapsid antibodies over time was observed (regression coefficient, B = -0.24 [95%CI: -1.2-(-0.12)]). A positive association was found between COVID-19 vaccination and endemic human ß-coronavirus IgG titer 14-56 days post vaccination (OC43, p = 0.02 & HKU1, p = 0.02). On average, SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike IgG concentration increased in participants who received one vaccine dose by 2.06 log10 AU/mL (95%CI: 1.45-3.46) adjusting for age, biological sex, and time since infection. Cumulative incidence of high SARS-CoV-2 spike antibodies (>5.5 log10 AU/mL) was 83% greater in vaccinated compared to unvaccinated individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms that vaccination post-SARS-CoV-2 infection provides multiple benefits, such as increasing anti-spike IgG titers and preventing decay up to 85 days post-vaccination.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19/prevention & control , Antibody Formation , SARS-CoV-2 , Prospective Studies , COVID-19 Vaccines , Antibodies, Viral , Vaccination , Immunoglobulin G
11.
Expert Rev Vaccines ; : 1-16, 2022 Nov 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2097134

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 vaccines have been highly effective in reducing morbidity and mortality during the pandemic. However, the emergence of the Omicron variant and subvariants as the globally dominant strains have raised doubts about the effectiveness of currently available vaccines and prompted debate about potential future vaccination strategies. AREAS COVERED: Using the publicly available IVAC VIEW-hub platform, we reviewed 52 studies on vaccine effectiveness (VE) after booster vaccinations. VE were reported for SARS-CoV-2 symptomatic infection, severe disease and death and stratified by vaccine schedule and age. In addition, a non-systematic literature review of safety was performed to identify single or multi-country studies investigating adverse event rates for at least two of the currently available COVID-19 vaccines. EXPERT OPINION: Booster shots of the current COVID-19 vaccines provide consistently high protection against Omicron-related severe disease and death. Additionally, this protection appears to be conserved for at least 3 months, with a small but significant waning after that. The positive risk-benefit ratio of these vaccines is well established, giving us confidence to administer additional doses as required. Future vaccination strategies will likely include a combination of schedules based on risk profile, as overly frequent boosting may be neither beneficial nor sustainable for the general population.

12.
Vaccines (Basel) ; 10(11)2022 Oct 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2090396

ABSTRACT

Several studies have reported the waning effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. This study aims to demonstrate the applicability of the screening method for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) in a pandemic. We report VE in Hungary, estimated with the screening method, in 2021, covering a period of Alpha and the Delta variant, including the booster dose roll-out. Hungary is in a unique position to use six different vaccines in the same population. All vaccines provided a high level of protection initially, which declined over time. While the picture is different in each age group, the waning of immunity is apparent for all vaccines, especially in the younger age groups and the Sinopharm, Sputnik-V, and AstraZeneca vaccines, which performed similarly. This is clearly reversed by booster doses, more prominent for those three vaccines, where the decline in protection is more evident. Overall, two vaccines, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, tend to produce the best results in all age groups, even with waning immunity considered. Using the screening method in future pandemic waves is worthwhile, especially in countries struggling with a lack of resources or when there is a need to deliver VE results within a short timeframe due to urgent decision-making.

13.
Int J Epidemiol ; 2022 Oct 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2087786

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Several SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have been shown to provide protection against COVID-19 hospitalization and death. However, some evidence suggests that notable waning in effectiveness against these outcomes occurs within months of vaccination. We undertook a pooled analysis across the four nations of the UK to investigate waning in vaccine effectiveness (VE) and relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) against severe COVID-19 outcomes. METHODS: We carried out a target trial design for first/second doses of ChAdOx1(Oxford-AstraZeneca) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) with a composite outcome of COVID-19 hospitalization or death over the period 8 December 2020 to 30 June 2021. Exposure groups were matched by age, local authority area and propensity for vaccination. We pooled event counts across the four UK nations. RESULTS: For Doses 1 and 2 of ChAdOx1 and Dose 1 of BNT162b2, VE/rVE reached zero by approximately Days 60-80 and then went negative. By Day 70, VE/rVE was -25% (95% CI: -80 to 14) and 10% (95% CI: -32 to 39) for Doses 1 and 2 of ChAdOx1, respectively, and 42% (95% CI: 9 to 64) and 53% (95% CI: 26 to 70) for Doses 1 and 2 of BNT162b2, respectively. rVE for Dose 2 of BNT162b2 remained above zero throughout and reached 46% (95% CI: 13 to 67) after 98 days of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: We found strong evidence of waning in VE/rVE for Doses 1 and 2 of ChAdOx1, as well as Dose 1 of BNT162b2. This evidence may be used to inform policies on timings of additional doses of vaccine.

14.
Vaccine ; 40(49): 7141-7150, 2022 Nov 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2086812

ABSTRACT

The mass vaccination program has been actively promoted since the end of 2020. However, waning immunity, antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), and increased transmissibility of variants make the herd immunity untenable and the implementation of dynamic zero-COVID policy challenging in China. To explore how long the vaccination program can prevent China at low resurgence risk, and how these factors affect the long-term trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemics, we developed a dynamic transmission model of COVID-19 incorporating vaccination and waning immunity, calibrated using the data of accumulative vaccine doses administered and the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 in mainland China. The prediction suggests that the vaccination coverage with at least one dose reach 95.87%, and two doses reach 77.92% on 31 August 2021. However, despite the mass vaccination, randomly introducing infected cases in the post-vaccination period causes large outbreaks quickly with waning immunity, particularly for SARS-CoV-2 variants with higher transmissibility. The results showed that with the current vaccination program and 50% of the population wearing masks, mainland China can be protected at low resurgence risk until 8 January 2023. However, ADE and higher transmissibility for variants would significantly shorten the low-risk period by over 1 year. Furthermore, intermittent outbreaks can occur while the peak values of the subsequent outbreaks decrease, indicating that subsequent outbreaks boosted immunity in the population level, further indicating that follow-up vaccination programs can help mitigate or avoid the possible outbreaks. The findings revealed that the integrated effects of multiple factors: waning immunity, ADE, relaxed interventions, and higher variant transmissibility, make controlling COVID-19 challenging. We should prepare for a long struggle with COVID-19, and not entirely rely on the COVID-19 vaccine.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Antibody-Dependent Enhancement , COVID-19 Vaccines , Vaccination/methods , China/epidemiology
15.
Viruses ; 14(10)2022 10 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2071833

ABSTRACT

Using the recently proposed Susceptible-Asymptomatic-Infected-Vaccinated-Removed (SAIVR) model, we study the impact of key factors affecting COVID-19 vaccine rollout effectiveness and the susceptibility to resurgent epidemics. The SAIVR model expands the widely used Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) model for describing epidemics by adding compartments to include the asymptomatic infected (A) and the vaccinated (V) populations. We solve the model numerically to make predictions on the susceptibility to resurgent COVID-19 epidemics depending on initial vaccination coverage, importation loads, continuing vaccination, and more contagious SARS-CoV-2 variants, under persistent immunity and immunity waning conditions. The parameters of the model represent reported epidemiological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus such as the disease spread in countries with high levels of vaccination coverage. Our findings help explain how the combined effects of different vaccination coverage levels and waning immunity lead to distinct patterns of resurgent COVID-19 epidemics (either surges or endemic), which are observed in countries that implemented different COVID-19 health policies and achieved different vaccinated population plateaus after the vaccine rollouts in the first half of 2021.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Influenza Vaccines , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Vaccines , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Vaccination
16.
Expert Rev Vaccines ; 21(12): 1831-1841, 2022 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2070019

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: This meta-analysis aims to assess the effectiveness of the current Sars-Cov2 vaccine regimens against Omicron infection. A secondary endpoint aims to investigate the waning effectiveness of primary vaccination against symptomatic infection and related hospitalization. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The systematic review started on 1 December 2021 and was concluded on 1 March 2022. Random-effects frequentist meta-analyses and multiple meta-regressions were performed. RESULTS: In total, 15 studies are included in the quantitative synthesis. According to the meta-analysis results, the overall risk of Sars-Cov2 infection in vaccinated individuals is on average 31 · 5% lower than the infection risk in unvaccinated while vaccinated with one booster dose have a 70 · 4% risk reduction of Omicron infection compared to unvaccinated. In particular, one booster dose significantly decreases by 69% the risk of symptomatic Omicron infection with respect to unvaccinated. Six months after the primary vaccination, the average risk reduction declines to 22% against symptomatic infection and to 55% against hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Primary vaccination does not provide sufficient protection against symptomatic Omicron infection. Although the effectiveness of the primary vaccination against hospitalization due to Omicron remains significantly above 50% after 3 months, it dramatically fades after 6 months.

17.
Vaccine ; 40(49): 7115-7121, 2022 Nov 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2069775

ABSTRACT

Vaccination strategies to control COVID-19 have been ongoing worldwide since the end of 2020. Understanding their possible effect is key to prevent future disease spread. Using a modelling approach, this study intends to measure the impact of the COVID-19 Portuguese vaccination strategy on the effective reproduction number and explore three scenarios for vaccine effectiveness waning. Namely, the no-immunity-loss, 1-year and 3-years of immunity duration scenarios. We adapted an age-structured SEIR deterministic model and used Portuguese hospitalisation data for the model calibration. Results show that, although the Portuguese vaccination plan had a substantial impact in reducing overall transmission, it might not be sufficient to control disease spread. A significant vaccination coverage of those above 5 years old, a vaccine effectiveness against disease of at least 80% and softer non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as mask usage and social distancing, would be necessary to control disease spread in the worst scenario considered. The immunity duration scenario of 1-year displays a resurgence of COVID-19 hospitalisations by the end of 2021, the same is observed in 3-year scenario although with a lower magnitude. The no-immunity-loss scenario presents a low increase in hospitalisations. In both the 1-year and 3-year scenarios, a vaccination boost of those above 65 years old would result in a 53% and 38% peak reduction of non-ICU hospitalisations, respectively. These results suggest that NPIs should not be fully phased-out but instead be combined with a fast booster vaccination strategy to reduce healthcare burden.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines , COVID-19 , Humans , Child, Preschool , Aged , Portugal/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Vaccination , Vaccination Coverage
18.
Journal of Theoretical Biology ; : 111299, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2069413

ABSTRACT

One of the key features of any infectious disease is whether infection generates long-lasting immunity or whether repeated reinfection is common. In the former, the long-term dynamics are driven by the birth of susceptible individuals while in the latter the dynamics are governed by the speed of waning immunity. Between these two extremes a range of scenarios is possible. During the early waves of SARS-CoV-2, the underlying paradigm was for long-lasting immunity, but more recent data and in particular the 2022 Omicron waves have shown that reinfection can be relatively common. Here we investigate reported SARS-CoV-2 cases in England, partitioning the data into four main waves, and consider the temporal distribution of first and second reports of infection. We show that a simple low-dimensional statistical model of random (but scaled) reinfection captures much of the observed dynamics, with the value of this scaling, k, providing information of underlying epidemiological patterns. We conclude that there is considerable heterogeneity in risk of reporting reinfection by wave, age-group and location. The high levels of reinfection in the Omicron wave (we estimate that 18% of all Omicron cases had been previously infected, although not necessarily previously reported infection) point to reinfection events dominating future COVID-19 dynamics. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on “Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics”.

19.
Expert Rev Vaccines ; 21(7): 899-907, 2022 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2062689

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Despite high vaccination coverage among children and adolescents, pertussis remains a public health problem, with large outbreaks occurring periodically in the US and other developed countries. AREAS COVERED: We examine lessons learned more than 20 years after implementation of programs which use only acellular pertussis vaccines and propose avenues for possible effective use of acellular pertussis vaccine to prevent large outbreaks. EXPERT OPINION: Acellular pertussis vaccines were introduced more than 20 years ago, yet the incidence of pertussis has been increasing over the past decade, with periodic large outbreaks marked by notable shifts in disease burden from infants and young children toward fully vaccinated adolescents and young adults. This age shift is mainly driven by the waning of vaccine immunity. To better protect adolescents against pertussis, modification of the current acellular pertussis vaccination schedule or adoption of new vaccination strategies should be considered. For infants not yet eligible to be vaccinated, maternal vaccination against pertussis during pregnancy is an effective way to protect infants from infection, severe disease and death. Implementation of maternal vaccination programs should be encouraged in countries without one or efforts to improve coverage should be supported in countries with existing program.


Subject(s)
Diphtheria-Tetanus-acellular Pertussis Vaccines , Whooping Cough , Adolescent , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Humans , Infant , Pertussis Vaccine , Pregnancy , Vaccination , Vaccine Efficacy , Whooping Cough/epidemiology , Whooping Cough/prevention & control , Young Adult
20.
Applied Mathematical Modelling ; 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2060401

ABSTRACT

The effectiveness of control interventions against COVID-19 is threatened by the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. We present a mathematical model for studying the transmission dynamics of two of these variants (Delta and Omicron) in the United States, in the presence of vaccination, treatment of individuals with clinical symptoms of the disease and the use of face masks. The model is parameterized and cross-validated using observed daily case data for COVID-19 in the United States for the period from November 2021 (when Omicron first emerged) to March 2022. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium of the model is locally-asymptotically stable when the control reproduction number of the model (denoted by Rc) is less than one. This equilibrium is shown to be globally-asymptotically stable for a special case of the model, where disease-induced mortality is negligible and both vaccine-derived immunity in fully-vaccinated individuals and natural immunity do not wane, when the associated reproduction number is less than one. The epidemiological implication of the latter result is that the combined vaccination-boosting strategy can lead to the elimination of the pandemic if its implementation can bring (and maintain) the associated reproduction number to a value less than one. An analytical expression for the vaccine-derived herd immunity threshold is derived. Using this expression, together with the baseline values of the parameters of the parameterized model, we showed that the vaccine-derived herd immunity can be achieved in the United States (so that the pandemic will be eliminated) if at least 68% of the population is fully-vaccinated with two of the three vaccines approved for use in the United States (Pfizer or Moderna vaccine). Furthermore, this study showed (as of the time of writing in March 2022) that the control reproduction number of the Omicron variant was approximately 3.5 times that of the Delta variant (the reproduction of the latter is computed to be ≈0.2782), indicating that Delta had practically died out and that Omicron has competitively-excluded Delta (to become the predominant variant in the United States). Based on our analysis and parameterization at the time of writing of this paper (March 2022), our study suggests that SARS-CoV-2 elimination is feasible by June 2022 if the current baseline level of the coverage of fully-vaccinated individuals is increased by about 20%. The prospect of pandemic elimination is significantly improved if vaccination is combined with a face mask strategy that prioritizes moderately effective and high-quality masks. Having a high percentage of the populace wearing the moderately-effective surgical mask is more beneficial to the community than having low percentage of the populace wearing the highly-effective N95 masks. We showed that waning natural and vaccine-derived immunity (if considered individually) offer marginal impact on disease burden, except for the case when they wane at a much faster rate (e.g., within three months), in comparison to the baseline (estimated to be within 9 months to a year). Treatment of symptomatic individuals has marginal effect in reducing daily cases of SARS-CoV-2, in comparison to the baseline, but it has significant impact in reducing daily hospitalizations. Furthermore, while treatment significantly reduces daily hospitalizations (and, consequently, deaths), the prospects of COVID-19 elimination in the United States are significantly enhanced if investments in control resources are focused on mask usage and vaccination rather than on treatment.

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