Productivity and firm exit during the COVID-19 crisis: cross-country evidence

This paper examines whether the economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic exhibits a Schumpeterian "cleansing” of less productive firms. Using firm-level data collected for 34 economies up to 18 months into the crisis, the study finds that less productive firms have a higher probability of permanently closing during the crisis, suggesting that the process of cleansing out unproductive activities is occurring. The paper also uncovers strong and negative relationships of firm exit with digital presence and with innovation. These relationships are driven by small firms. The study further finds that a burdensome business environment increases the probability of firm exit, also driven by small firms, and that a negative relationship exists between firm exit and age. Finally, evidence shows that the cleansing process is disrupted in countries which have introduced policies imposing a moratorium on insolvency procedures.Plain English SummaryThe purpose of this analysis is to investigate whether firms that are more productive are less likely to cease operation during the economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. To verify this hypothesis, the paper uses data on firm characteristics, productivity, and status of operation from 34 countries. The data on firm characteristics and productivity were collected before the crisis, while data on the operating status were collected within 18 months since the appearance of the coronavirus. The results of the paper show that indeed, more productive firms are more likely to survive the crisis. In addition, businesses that have been in operation for longer, or ones which have a website or have introduced a new product in the years before the crisis are more likely to continue existing. The positive role of digitalization and innovation is true especially for small firms. Conversely, those businesses which have to spend more time in compliance with government regulations are less likely to survive. The policy implications show the importance of digitalization and innovation, the vulnerabilities of small firms, and the significance of good governance.

Productivity growth over the business cycle: cleansing effects of recessions

This paper investigates the impact of recent recessions on the origins of productivity growth. We show how business cycles affect productivity growth, with particular attention for the impact of job reallocation and labor hoarding. We find evidence that recessions induce productivity enhancing job reallocation in manufacturing but not in services industries and show that labor hoarding mitigates this cleansing effect of recessions. Furthermore, we show how entry and exit of firms and industry dynamics shape the evolution of aggregate productivity.Plain English SummaryDuring recessions, governments support firms via temporary unemployment programs to save jobs. A side effect is that job reallocation and exit of low-productive firms can be distorted, while such cleansing effects typically spur productivity growth. This paper investigates how recessions affect productivity growth, with particular attention for the impact of job reallocation and labor hoarding. We find evidence that recessions induce productivity enhancing job reallocation in manufacturing but not in services industries and show that labor hoarding mitigates this cleansing effect of recessions. Furthermore, we show how entry and exit of firms and industry dynamics shape the evolution of aggregate productivity. As many developed economies struggle with a slowdown in productivity growth, it is important that policy makers understand the impact of recessions on the micro origins of productivity growth and are aware of how temporary policies during recessions could affect long-term productivity growth.