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2.
PLoS Med ; 18(10): e1003831, 2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1477511

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: UNAIDS has established new program targets for 2025 to achieve the goal of eliminating AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. This study reports on efforts to use mathematical models to estimate the impact of achieving those targets. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We simulated the impact of achieving the targets at country level using the Goals model, a mathematical simulation model of HIV epidemic dynamics that includes the impact of prevention and treatment interventions. For 77 high-burden countries, we fit the model to surveillance and survey data for 1970 to 2020 and then projected the impact of achieving the targets for the period 2019 to 2030. Results from these 77 countries were extrapolated to produce estimates for 96 others. Goals model results were checked by comparing against projections done with the Optima HIV model and the AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) for selected countries. We included estimates of the impact of societal enablers (access to justice and law reform, stigma and discrimination elimination, and gender equality) and the impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Results show that achieving the 2025 targets would reduce new annual infections by 83% (71% to 86% across regions) and AIDS-related deaths by 78% (67% to 81% across regions) by 2025 compared to 2010. Lack of progress on societal enablers could endanger these achievements and result in as many as 2.6 million (44%) cumulative additional new HIV infections and 440,000 (54%) more AIDS-related deaths between 2020 and 2030 compared to full achievement of all targets. COVID-19-related disruptions could increase new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 10% in the next 2 years, but targets could still be achieved by 2025. Study limitations include the reliance on self-reports for most data on behaviors, the use of intervention effect sizes from published studies that may overstate intervention impacts outside of controlled study settings, and the use of proxy countries to estimate the impact in countries with fewer than 4,000 annual HIV infections. CONCLUSIONS: The new targets for 2025 build on the progress made since 2010 and represent ambitious short-term goals. Achieving these targets would bring us close to the goals of reducing new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% between 2010 and 2030. By 2025, global new infections and AIDS deaths would drop to 4.4 and 3.9 per 100,000 population, and the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) would be declining. There would be 32 million people on treatment, and they would need continuing support for their lifetime. Incidence for the total global population would be below 0.15% everywhere. The number of PLHIV would start declining by 2023.


Subject(s)
Disease Eradication , Global Health , Goals , HIV Infections/prevention & control , Models, Biological , Models, Theoretical , Public Health , Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/epidemiology , Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/prevention & control , Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/therapy , Adolescent , Adult , COVID-19 , Cause of Death , Epidemics , Female , HIV Infections/epidemiology , HIV Infections/therapy , Humans , Incidence , Male , SARS-CoV-2 , Social Determinants of Health , United Nations , Young Adult
3.
Int J Mol Sci ; 22(1)2020 Dec 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1027278

ABSTRACT

Infectious diseases represent a relevant issue in lung cancer patients. Bacterial and viral infections might influence the patients' prognosis, both directly affecting the immune system and indirectly impairing the outcome of anticancer treatments, mainly immunotherapy. In this analysis, we aimed to review the current evidence in order to clarify the complex correlation between infections and lung cancer. In detail, we mainly explored the potential impact on immunotherapy outcome/safety of (1) bacterial infections, with a detailed focus on antibiotics; and (2) viral infections, discriminating among (a) human immune-deficiency virus (HIV), (b) hepatitis B/C virus (HBV-HCV), and (c) Sars-Cov-2. A series of studies suggested the prognostic impact of antibiotic therapy administration, timing, and exposure ratio in patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors, probably through an antibiotic-related microbiota dysbiosis. Although cancer patients with HIV, HBV, and HCV were usually excluded from clinical trials evaluating immunotherapy, some retrospective and prospective trials performed in these patient subgroups reported similar results compared to those described in not-infected patients, with a favorable safety profile. Moreover, patients with thoracic cancers are particularly at risk of COVID-19 severe outcomes and mortality. Few reports speculated about the prognostic implications of anticancer therapy, including immunotherapy, in lung cancer patients with concomitant Sars-Cov-2 infection, showing, to date, inconsistent results. The correlation between infectious diseases and immunotherapy remains to be further explored and clarified in the context of dedicated trials. In clinical practice, the accurate and prompt multidisciplinary management of lung cancer patients with infections should be encouraged in order to select the best treatment options for these patients, avoiding unexpected toxicities, while maintaining the anticancer effect.


Subject(s)
Bacterial Infections/complications , COVID-19/complications , Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/complications , Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/therapy , Immunotherapy , Lung Neoplasms/complications , Lung Neoplasms/therapy , Virus Diseases/complications , Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/complications , Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/immunology , Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/pathology , Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/therapy , Anti-Bacterial Agents/administration & dosage , Bacterial Infections/drug therapy , Bacterial Infections/pathology , COVID-19/drug therapy , COVID-19/pathology , Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/microbiology , Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/virology , HIV/drug effects , Hepatitis B/complications , Hepatitis B/immunology , Hepatitis B/pathology , Hepatitis C/complications , Hepatitis C/drug therapy , Hepatitis C/pathology , Humans , Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors/therapeutic use , Lung Neoplasms/microbiology , Lung Neoplasms/virology , Microbiota/drug effects , Microbiota/immunology
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