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Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 19(1)2021 12 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1613755


This work aimed to apply the ARIMA model to predict the under-reporting of new Hansen's disease cases during the COVID-19 pandemic in Palmas, Tocantins, Brazil. This is an ecological time series study of Hansen's disease indicators in the city of Palmas between 2001 and 2020 using the autoregressive integrated moving averages method. Data from the Notifiable Injuries Information System and population estimates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics were collected. A total of 7035 new reported cases of Hansen's disease were analyzed. The ARIMA model (4,0,3) presented the lowest values for the two tested information criteria and was the one that best fit the data, as AIC = 431.30 and BIC = 462.28, using a statistical significance level of 0.05 and showing the differences between the predicted values and those recorded in the notifications, indicating a large number of under-reporting of Hansen's disease new cases during the period from April to December 2020. The ARIMA model reported that 177% of new cases of Hansen's disease were not reported in Palmas during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This study shows the need for the municipal control program to undertake immediate actions in terms of actively searching for cases and reducing their hidden prevalence.

COVID-19 , Leprosy , Brazil/epidemiology , Humans , Leprosy/epidemiology , Models, Statistical , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 24491, 2021 12 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1591547


There is an ongoing need for scientific analysis to help governments and public health authorities make decisions regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. This article presents a methodology based on data mining that can offer support for coping with epidemic diseases. The methodological approach was applied in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Manaus, the cities in Brazil with the most COVID-19 deaths until the first half of 2021. We aimed to predict the evolution of COVID-19 in metropolises and identify air quality and meteorological variables correlated with confirmed cases and deaths. The statistical analyses indicated the most important explanatory environmental variables, while the cluster analyses showed the potential best input variables for the forecasting models. The forecast models were built by two different algorithms and their results have been compared. The relationship between epidemiological and environmental variables was particular to each of the three cities studied. Low solar radiation periods predicted in Manaus can guide managers to likely increase deaths due to COVID-19. In São Paulo, an increase in the mortality rate can be indicated by drought periods. The developed models can predict new cases and deaths by COVID-19 in studied cities. Furthermore, the methodological approach can be applied in other cities and for other epidemic diseases.

COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/mortality , Data Mining/methods , Brazil/epidemiology , COVID-19/pathology , Cities/epidemiology , Humans , Models, Theoretical , Morbidity , Pandemics/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity
BMJ Open ; 11(11): e048073, 2021 11 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1583118


PURPOSE: This population-based open cohort study aims to investigate biological and sociodemographic drivers of malaria transmission in the main urban hotspot of Amazonian Brazil. PARTICIPANTS: Nearly 20% of the households in the northwestern town of Mâncio Lima were randomly selected and 2690 participants were enrolled since April 2018. Sociodemographic, housing quality, occupational, behavioural and morbidity information and travel histories were collected during consecutive study visits. Blood samples from participants>3 months old were used for malaria diagnosis and human genetic studies; samples from participants with laboratory-confirmed malaria have been cryopreserved for genetic and phenotypic characterisation of parasites. Serology was introduced in 2020 to measure the prevalence and longevity of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies. FINDINGS TO DATE: Malaria prevalence rates were low (up to 1.0% for Plasmodium vivax and 0.6% for P. falciparum) during five consecutive cross-sectional surveys between April-May 2018 and October-November 2020; 63% of infections diagnosed by microscopy were asymptomatic. Malaria risk is heterogeneously distributed, with 20% study participants contributing 86% of the overall burden of P. vivax infection. Adult males are at greatest risk of infection and human mobility across the urban-rural interface may contribute to sustained malaria transmission. Local P. vivax parasites are genetically diverse and fragmented into discrete inbred lineages that remain stable across space and time. FUTURE PLANS: Two follow-up visits, with similar study protocols, are planned in 2021. We aim to identify high-risk individuals that fuel onwards malaria transmission and represent a priority target for more intensive and effective control interventions. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03689036.

COVID-19 , Malaria, Falciparum , Malaria, Vivax , Malaria , Adult , Brazil/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Cross-Sectional Studies , Humans , Infant , Malaria/epidemiology , Malaria, Vivax/epidemiology , Male , Prevalence , SARS-CoV-2
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 24443, 2021 12 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1585775


We investigate, through a data-driven contact tracing model, the transmission of COVID-19 inside buses during distinct phases of the pandemic in a large Brazilian city. From this microscopic approach, we recover the networks of close contacts within consecutive time windows. A longitudinal comparison is then performed by upscaling the traced contacts with the transmission computed from a mean-field compartmental model for the entire city. Our results show that the effective reproduction numbers inside the buses, [Formula: see text], and in the city, [Formula: see text], followed a compatible behavior during the first wave of the local outbreak. Moreover, by distinguishing the close contacts of healthcare workers in the buses, we discovered that their transmission, [Formula: see text], during the same period, was systematically higher than [Formula: see text]. This result reinforces the need for special public transportation policies for highly exposed groups of people.

COVID-19/transmission , Contact Tracing/methods , Brazil/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Disease Outbreaks , Health Personnel/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Models, Theoretical , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Transportation
Rev Bras Ginecol Obstet ; 43(12): 932-939, 2021 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1585681


OBJECTIVE: To study maternal anxiety in pregnant women without comorbidities in the context of the COVID-19 outbreak in Brazil and to study maternal knowledge and concerns about the pandemic. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis from a national multicenter cross-sectional study performed in 10 cities, from June to August, 2020, in Brazil. Interviewed postpartum women, without medical or obstetrical comorbidities, were included in the present subanalysis. A structured questionnaire and the Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI) were applied. RESULTS: Out of the 1,662 women, 763 (45.9%) met the criteria for the current analysis and 16.1% presented with moderate and 11.5% with severe maternal anxiety. Moderate or severe maternal anxiety was associated with high school education (odds ratio [OR]:1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.04-2.40). The protective factor was cohabiting with a partner (OR: 0.46; 95%CI: 0.29-0.73). There was a positive correlation between the total BAI score and receiving information about care in the pandemic (rpartial 0.15; p < 0.001); concern about vertical transmission of COVID-19 (rpartial 0.10; p = 0.01); receiving information about breastfeeding (rpartial 0.08; p = 0.03); concerns about prenatal care (rpartial 0.10; p = 0.01), and concerns about the baby contracting COVID-19 (rpartial 0.11; p = 0.004). The correlation was negative in the following aspects: self-confidence in protecting from COVID-19 (rpartial 0.08; p = 0.04), having learned (rpartial 0.09; p = 0.01) and self-confidence in breastfeeding (rpartial 0.22; p < 0.001) in the context of the pandemic. CONCLUSION: The anxiety of pregnant women without medical or obstetrical comorbidities was associated to high school educational level and not living with a partner during the COVID-19 pandemic. Self-confidence in protecting against COVID-19 and knowledge about breastfeeding care during the pandemic reduced maternal anxiety.

Estudar a ansiedade materna em gestantes sem comorbidades no contexto do surto de COVID-19 no Brasil e estudar o conhecimento e as preocupações maternas sobre a pandemia. MéTODOS: Trata-se de análise secundária de um estudo transversal multicêntrico nacional realizado em 10 cidades, de junho a agosto de 2020, no Brasil. Mulheres no pós-parto entrevistadas, sem comorbidades médicas ou obstétricas, foram incluídas nesta subanálise. Foram aplicados um questionário estruturado e o Inventário de Ansiedade de Beck (BAI, na sigla em inglês). Das 1.662 mulheres, 763 (45,9%) atenderam aos critérios da análise atual e 16,1% apresentaram ansiedade materna moderada e 11,5% ansiedade materna grave. A ansiedade materna moderada ou grave foi associada à escolaridade no ensino médio (odds ratio [OR]: 1,58; intervalo de confiança [IC] 95%: 1,04­2,40). O fator protetor foi coabitar com companheiro (OR: 0,46; IC95%: 0,29­0,73). Houve correlação positiva entre a pontuação total do BAI e o recebimento de informações sobre cuidados na pandemia (rparcial 0,15; p < 0,001); preocupação com a transmissão vertical de COVID-19 (rparcial 0,10; p = 0,01); receber informações sobre amamentação (rparcial 0,08; p = 0,03); preocupações sobre cuidados pré-natais (rparcial 0,10; p = 0,01) e preocupações sobre o bebê contrair COVID-19 (rparcial 0,11; p = 0,004). A correlação foi negativa com os seguintes aspectos: ter autoconfiança para se proteger (rparcial 0,08; p = 0,04), aprender (rparcial 0,09; p = 0,01) e ter autoconfiança para amamentar (rparcial 0,22; p < 0,001) no contexto da pandemia. CONCLUSãO: A ansiedade de gestantes sem comorbidades médicas ou obstétricas esteve associada à escolaridade no ensino médio e não morar com companheiro durante a pandemia de COVID-19. A autoconfiança na proteção contra COVID-19 e o conhecimento sobre os cuidados com a amamentação durante a pandemia reduziram a ansiedade materna.

COVID-19 , Pregnant Women , Anxiety/epidemiology , Brazil/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Depression , Female , Humans , Pandemics , Pregnancy , SARS-CoV-2
BMC Infect Dis ; 21(1): 1260, 2021 Dec 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1582102


BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to sex and age group and evidence the level of disease before the Covid-19 pandemic in a TB high endemic city. METHODS: This was a time series study carried out in a city in northeast Brazil. The population was composed of cases of tuberculosis, excluding those with HIV-positive status, reported between the years 2002 and 2018. An exploratory analysis of the monthly rates of tuberculosis detection, smoothed according to sex and age group, was performed. Subsequently, the progression of the trend and prediction of the disease were also characterized according to these aspects. For the trends forecast, the seasonal autoregressive linear integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the usual Box-Jenkins method were used to choose the most appropriate models. RESULTS: A total of 1620 cases of tuberculosis were reported, with an incidence of 49.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in men and 34.0 per 100,000 in women. Regarding the incidence for both sexes, there was a decreasing trend, which was similar for age. Evidence resulting from the application of the time series shows a decreasing trend in the years 2002-2018, with a trend of stability. CONCLUSIONS: The study evidenced a decreasing trend in tuberculosis, even before the Covid-19 pandemic, for both sex and age; however, in a step really slow from that recommended by the World Health Organization. According to the results, the disease would have achieved a level of stability in the city next years, however it might have been aggravated by the pandemic. These findings are relevant to evidence the serious behavior and trends of TB in a high endemic scenario considering a context prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 , Tuberculosis , Brazil/epidemiology , Humans , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Tuberculosis/epidemiology
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 19(1)2021 12 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1580786


OBJECTIVE: To analyze the relationships between sociodemographic variables, intolerance to uncertainty (INT), social support, and psychological distress (i.e., indicators of Common Mental Disorders (CMDs) and perceived stress (PS)) in Brazilian men during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A cross-sectional study with national coverage, of the web survey type, and conducted with 1006 Brazilian men during the period of social circulation restriction imposed by the health authorities in Brazil for suppression of the coronavirus and control of the pandemic. Structural equation modeling analysis was performed. RESULTS: Statistically significant direct effects of race/skin color (λ = 0.268; p-value < 0.001), socioeconomic status (SES) (λ = 0.306; p-value < 0.001), household composition (λ = 0.281; p-value < 0.001), PS (λ = 0.513; p-value < 0.001), and INT (λ = 0.421; p-value < 0.001) were evidenced in the occurrence of CMDs. Black-skinned men with higher SES, living alone, and with higher PS and INT levels presented higher prevalence values of CMDs. CONCLUSIONS: High levels of PS and INT were the factors that presented the strongest associations with the occurrence of CMDs among the men. It is necessary to implement actions to reduce the stress-generating sources as well as to promote an increase in resilience and the development of intrinsic reinforcements to deal with uncertain threats.

COVID-19 , Psychological Distress , Brazil/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Humans , Male , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Social Support , Stress, Psychological/epidemiology , Uncertainty
Cad. Saúde Pública (Online) ; 37(9): e00028321, 2021. tab, graf
Article in English | LILACS (Americas) | ID: covidwho-1574301


Abstract: We aim to examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the ethnoracial disparities in hospitalizations due to dementia and its related outcomes, in Brazil. A longitudinal panel study was carried out with data extracted from the Hospital Information Systems of the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SIH/SUS). We assessed the number of hospital admission per 100,000 inhabitants, mean inpatient spending, and inpatient mortality rate due to dementia during the first semester of 2019 and 2020. Data were stratified by geographic region and ethnoracial groups (black, mixed, and white) based on skin color. We observed an overall reduction in hospital admissions, mean inpatient spending, and mortality rate between the first semester of 2019 and 2020. However, the reduction of hospitalization rates among black and mixed people was 105.3% and 121.1% greater than in whites, respectively. Mortality rate was decreased by 9% in whites and was increased by 65% and 43% in the black and mixed population, respectively. In the first semester of 2020, black and mixed patients had a higher risk of losing their lives due to dementia than white people. This disparity was not observed in the same period of 2019. In 2020, the inpatient mortality ratio reached the highest values among black individuals in all regions but the North (no data available). Since the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil, ethnoracial disparity in hospital admissions and mortality rates due to dementia has been heightened. Governmental actions and policies to mitigate this indirect effect of the pandemic on the Brazilian population are urgent.

Resumo: O estudo teve como objetivo examinar o efeito da pandemia da COVID-19 sobre disparidades étnico-raciais nas hospitalizações e desfechos relacionados à demência no Brasil. Foi realizado um estudo de painel longitudinal com dados extraídos do Sistema de Informações Hospitalares do Sistema Único de Saúde (SIH/SUS). Avaliamos o número de internações hospitalares por 100 mil habitantes, média de gastos hospitalares e taxa de mortalidade por demência durante o primeiro semestre de 2019 e de 2020. Os dados foram estratificados por região geográfica e grupo étnico-racial (preto, pardo e branco) com base na cor da pele. Observamos uma redução geral nas internações, média de gastos hospitalares e taxa de mortalidade entre o primeiro semestre de 2019 e o mesmo período em 2020. Entretanto, as reduções nas taxas de hospitalização entre pretos e pardos foram 105,3% e 121,1% maiores que em brancos, respectivamente. A taxa de mortalidade diminuiu em 9% entre brancos e aumentou em 65% e 43% entre pretos e pardos, respectivamente. No primeiro semestre de 2020, pacientes pretos e pardos tiveram um risco mais alto de perder a vida por demência quando comparados aos brancos, disparidade essa não havia sido observada no mesmo período de 2019. Em 2020, a razão de mortalidade hospitalar atingiu os níveis mais altos em indivíduos pretos em todas as regiões exceto a Norte (dados não publicados). Desde o início da epidemia de COVID-19 no Brasil, aumentou a disparidade étnico-racial nas internações e taxas de mortalidade por demência. São necessárias medidas e políticas governamentais para mitigar esse efeito indireto da pandemia sobre a população brasileira.

Resumen: El objetivo fue examinar el efecto de la pandemia de COVID-19 respecto a las disparidades étnico-raciales en hospitalizaciones, así como los resultados informados de las mismas, debido a la demencia en Brasil. Se trata de un estudio longitudinal en panel, realizado con datos extraídos del Sistema de Informaciones Hospitalarias del Sistema Único de Salud (SIH/SUS). Evaluamos el número de admisiones hospitalarias por 100.000 habitantes, la media del gasto hospitalario, además de la tasa de mortalidad hospitalaria, debido a la demencia, durante el primer semestre de 2019 y 2020. Los datos fueron estratificados por región geográfica y grupos étnico-raciales (negros, mestizos, y blancos), basados en su color de piel. Observamos en general una reducción en las admisiones hospitalarias, media del gasto hospitalario, y tasa de mortalidad entre el primer semestre de 2019 y 2020. No obstante, la reducción de las tasas de hospitalización entre negros y mestizos fue 105.3% y 121.1% superior, respecto a la de los blancos, respectivamente. La tasa de mortalidad decreció un 9% en blancos y aumentó en un 65% y un 43% en la población negra y mestiza, comparativamente. En el primer semestre de 2020, los pacientes negros y mestizos tenían un riesgo más alto de fallecer, debido a la demencia que la gente blanca, esta disparidad no se observó en el mismo periodo de 2019. En 2020, la ratio de mortalidad hospitalaria alcanzó los valores más altos entre individuos negros en todas las regiones, salvo en el Norte (no había datos disponibles). Desde el principio de la epidemia de COVID-19 en Brasil, la disparidad étnico-racial en las admisiones hospitalarias y tasas de mortalidad, debido a la demencia, se ha incrementado. Son urgentes acciones gubernamentales y políticas para mitigar este efecto indirecto de la pandemia en la población brasileña.

Humans , Dementia/epidemiology , COVID-19 , Brazil/epidemiology , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Hospitalization
Cad. Saúde Pública (Online) ; 37(9): e00242320, 2021. tab, graf
Article in English | LILACS (Americas) | ID: covidwho-1573779


On March 24, 2020, a partial lockdown was decreed in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, as a measure to hinder the spread of COVID-19, which consisted in prohibiting crowding and advising people to stay home, except for urgent or extremely necessary matters. Based on studies performed in other countries, this study aims to assess the impacts of the lockdown on the air quality of five cities in the state of São Paulo. Our study was conducted by using particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide as air quality indicators, and by correlating the contaminants concentrations with weather data. The results showed an increase in these contaminants in all cities within the first weeks after the lockdown compared with the weeks before the decree and with the same period in previous years. This result is inconsistent with the literature. Therefore, a secondary goal was set to investigate the possible cause (or causes) of such deterioration in air quality, which led to the increased number of wildfires. The anomalous dry weather favored the burning of vegetation in agricultural rural areas and in small, vegetated areas near the municipalities, and limited pollution scavenging by rainfall, both of which contributed to higher pollution concentration. We hypothesize the possible effects of worse air quality on the aggravation of COVID-19, but further research is necessary to obtain a complete assessment.

Em 24 de março de 2020, foi decretado confinamento parcial no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, como medida para desacelerar a disseminação da COVID-19. O decreto consistia na proibição de aglomerações e na recomendação para as pessoas permanecerem em casa, exceto em situações urgentes ou de extrema necessidade. Na esteira de estudos realizados em outros países, o artigo busca avaliar os impactos do confinamento na qualidade do ar em cinco cidades no Estado de São Paulo. Nosso estudo foi realizado com o material particulado e dióxido de nitrogênio enquanto indicadores da qualidade do ar e pela correlação das concentrações dos contaminantes com dados meteorológicos. Os resultados mostraram um aumento desses contaminantes em todas as cinco cidades dentro das primeiras semanas depois do confinamento, comparado às semanas que antecederam o decreto e com o mesmo período em anos anteriores. O resultado é inconsistente com os achados usualmente relatados em outros estudos. Portanto, foi definido um objetivo secundário a fim de investigar a possível causa (ou causas) da piora na qualidade do ar, o que revelou um aumento no número de incêndios. O tempo anormalmente seco favoreceu a queima de vegetação nas áreas agrícolas rurais e em pequenas áreas de vegetação próximas às cidades, além do limitado escoamento da poluição pela chuva, o que contribuiu à maior concentração de poluentes. Os achados sugerem hipóteses sobre os possíveis efeitos dessa situação de pior qualidade do ar sobre o agravamento de casos de COVID-19, porém são necessários mais estudos para uma avaliação completa.

El 24 de marzo de 2020 se decretó un confinamiento parcial en el estado de São Paulo, Brasil, como medida para evitar la propagación de la COVID-19, que consistió en prohibir aglomeraciones de personas y avisar a la gente que permaneciera en casa, salvo para asuntos urgentes o extremadamente necesarios. Siguiendo algunos estudios realizados en otros países, el objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar los impactos del confinamiento en la calidad del aire de ciudades en el estado de São Paulo. Nuestro estudio fue realizado usando material particulado y dióxido de nitrógeno, como indicadores de la calidad del aire, y mediante la correlación de las concentraciones de contaminantes con los datos meteorológicos. Los resultados mostraron un incremento en estos contaminantes en todas las ciudades dentro de las primeras semanas tras el confinamiento, comparando las semanas antes del decreto y dentro del mismo periodo en los años previos. Este resultado es inconsistente con aquellos que han sido informados en otros estudios. Por ello, un objetivo secundario fue investigar la posible causa (o causas) de tal deterioro en la calidad del aire, que conduce a un incremento en el número de incendios. La climatología seca anómala favoreció la quema de vegetación en las áreas rurales agrícolas, y en áreas con poca vegetación cerca de las ciudades, y la eliminación limitada de la contaminación gracias a la lluvia, ambos contribuyeron a una mayor concentración de contaminación. Se especula que los posibles efectos de esta situación de una peor calidad del aire podrían afectar en el agravamiento de los casos de COVID-19, pero son quizás necesarias más investigaciones para conseguir una evaluación completa.

Humans , Air Pollutants/analysis , Air Pollutants/adverse effects , Air Pollution/analysis , Air Pollution/adverse effects , COVID-19 , Brazil/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control , Environmental Monitoring , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
PLoS One ; 16(3): e0248580, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1575655


BACKGROUND: Brazil became the epicenter of the COVID-19 epidemic in a brief period of a few months after the first officially registered case. The knowledge of the epidemiological/clinical profile and the risk factors of Brazilian COVID-19 patients can assist in the decision making of physicians in the implementation of early and most appropriate measures for poor prognosis patients. However, these reports are missing. Here we present a comprehensive study that addresses this demand. METHODS: This data-driven study was based on the Brazilian Ministry of Health Database (SIVEP-Gripe) regarding notified cases of hospitalized COVID-19 patients during the period from February 26th to August 10th, 2020. Demographic data, clinical symptoms, comorbidities and other additional information of patients were analyzed. RESULTS: The hospitalization rate was higher for male gender (56.56%) and for older age patients of both sexes. Overall, the lethality rate was quite high (41.28%) among hospitalized patients, especially those over 60 years of age. Most prevalent symptoms were cough, dyspnoea, fever, low oxygen saturation and respiratory distress. Cardiac disease, diabetes, obesity, kidney disease, neurological disease, and pneumopathy were the most prevalent comorbidities. A high prevalence of hospitalized COVID-19 patients with cardiac disease (65.7%) and diabetes (53.55%) and with a high lethality rate of around 50% was observed. The intensive care unit (ICU) admission rate was 39.37% and of these 62.4% died. 24.4% of patients required invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), with high mortality among them (82.98%). The main mortality risk predictors were older age and IMV requirement. In addition, socioeconomic conditions have been shown to significantly influence the disease outcome, regardless of age and comorbidities. CONCLUSION: Our study provides a comprehensive overview of the hospitalized Brazilian COVID-19 patients profile and the mortality risk factors. The analysis also evidenced that the disease outcome is influenced by multiple factors, as unequally affects different segments of population.

COVID-19/mortality , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Brazil/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , Child , Child, Preschool , Databases, Factual , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Infant , Intensive Care Units , Male , Middle Aged , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Young Adult
PLoS One ; 16(3): e0247794, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1575402


BACKGROUND: Identified in December 2019 in the city of Wuhan, China, the outbreak of COVID-19 spread throughout the world and its impacts affect different populations differently, where countries with high levels of social and economic inequality such as Brazil gain prominence, for understanding of the vulnerability factors associated with the disease. Given this scenario, in the absence of a vaccine or safe and effective antiviral treatment for COVID-19, nonpharmacological measures are essential for prevention and control of the disease. However, many of these measures are not feasible for millions of individuals who live in territories with increased social vulnerability. The study aims to analyze the spatial distribution of COVID-19 incidence in Brazil's municipalities (counties) and investigate its association with sociodemographic determinants to better understand the social context and the epidemic's spread in the country. METHODS: This is an analytical ecological study using data from various sources. The study period was February 25 to September 26, 2020. Data analysis used global regression models: ordinary least squares (OLS), spatial autoregressive model (SAR), and conditional autoregressive model (CAR) and the local regression model called multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR). FINDINGS: The higher the GINI index, the higher the incidence of the disease at the municipal level. Likewise, the higher the nurse ratio per 1,000 inhabitants in the municipalities, the higher the COVID-19 incidence. Meanwhile, the proportional mortality ratio was inversely associated with incidence of the disease. DISCUSSION: Social inequality increased the risk of COVID-19 in the municipalities. Better social development of the municipalities was associated with lower risk of the disease. Greater access to health services improved the diagnosis and notification of the disease and was associated with more cases in the municipalities. Despite universal susceptibility to COVID-19, populations with increased social vulnerability were more exposed to risk of the illness.

COVID-19/epidemiology , Nurses/statistics & numerical data , Brazil/epidemiology , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/mortality , Cities/epidemiology , Demography , Female , Humans , Incidence , Male , Risk Factors , Socioeconomic Factors , Spatial Analysis , Spatial Regression
Rev Med Virol ; 31(6): e2231, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1574317


The Spike protein is the target of both antibody-based therapeutics (convalescent plasma, polyclonal serum, monoclonal antibodies) and vaccines. Mutations in Spike could affect efficacy of those treatments. Hence, monitoring of mutations is necessary to forecast and readapt the inventory of therapeutics. Different phylogenetic nomenclatures have been used for the currently circulating SARS-CoV-2 clades. The Spike protein has different hotspots of mutation and deletion, the most dangerous for immune escape being the ones within the receptor binding domain (RBD), such as K417N/T, N439K, L452R, Y453F, S477N, E484K, and N501Y. Convergent evolution has led to different combinations of mutations among different clades. In this review we focus on the main variants of concern, that is, the so-called UK (B.1.1.7), South African (B.1.351) and Brazilian (P.1) strains.

Antibodies, Monoclonal/therapeutic use , Antibodies, Neutralizing/therapeutic use , COVID-19/therapy , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/genetics , Antibodies, Monoclonal/chemistry , Antibodies, Monoclonal/metabolism , Antibodies, Neutralizing/chemistry , Antibodies, Neutralizing/metabolism , Antibodies, Viral/chemistry , Antibodies, Viral/metabolism , Antibodies, Viral/therapeutic use , Brazil/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/immunology , COVID-19/virology , COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage , Gene Expression , Humans , Immune Evasion , Immunization, Passive/methods , Mutation , Phylogeny , Protein Binding , Risk Assessment , SARS-CoV-2/classification , SARS-CoV-2/drug effects , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , South Africa/epidemiology , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/immunology , United Kingdom/epidemiology
Environ Res ; 204(Pt D): 112369, 2022 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1574591


Brazil, the country most impacted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the southern hemisphere, use intensive care admissions per day, mobility and other indices to monitor quarantines and prevent the transmissions of SARS-CoV-2. In this study we quantified the associations between residential mobility index (RMI), air pollution, meteorology, and daily cases and deaths of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil. We applied a semiparametric generalized additive model (GAM) to estimate: 1) the association between RMI and COVID-19, accounting for ambient particulate matter (PM2.5), ozone (O3), relative humidity, temperature and delayed exposure between 4 and 21 days, and 2) the association between COVID-19 and exposure to for ambient particulate matter (PM2.5), ozone (O3), accounting for relative humidity, temperature and mobility. We found that an RMI of 45.28% results in 1212 cases (95% CI: 1189 to 1235) and 44 deaths (95% CI: 40 to 47). Increasing the isolation from 45.28% to 50% would avoid 438 cases and 21 deaths. Also, we found that an increment of 10 µg⋅m-³ of PM2.5 results in a risk of 1.140 (95% CI: 1.021 to 1.274) for cases and 1.086 (95% CI: 1.008 to 1.170) for deaths, while O3 produces a relative risk of 1.075 (95% CI: 1.006 to 1.150) for cases and 1.063 (95% CI: 1.006 to 1.124) for deaths, respectively. We compared our results with observations and literature review, finding well agreement. Policymakers can use such mobility indices as tools to control social distance activities. Spatial distancing is an important factor to control COVID-19, however, measuring face-mask usage would enhance the understanding the pandemic dynamic. Small increments of air pollution result in an increased number of COVID-19 cases and deaths.

Air Pollutants , Air Pollution , COVID-19 , Air Pollutants/analysis , Air Pollutants/toxicity , Air Pollution/analysis , Air Pollution/statistics & numerical data , Brazil/epidemiology , Humans , Particulate Matter/analysis , Particulate Matter/toxicity , SARS-CoV-2
Clin Infect Dis ; 73(Suppl_5): S442-S453, 2021 12 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1574211


BACKGROUND: Minimally invasive autopsies, also known as minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), have proven to be an alternative to complete diagnostic autopsies (CDAs) in places or situations where this procedure cannot be performed. During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, CDAs were suspended by March 2020 in Brazil to reduce biohazard. To contribute to the understanding of COVID-19 pathology, we have conducted ultrasound (US)-guided MITS as a strategy. METHODS: This case series study includes 80 autopsies performed in patients with COVID-19 confirmed by laboratorial tests. Different organs were sampled using a standardized MITS protocol. Tissues were submitted to histopathological analysis as well as immunohistochemical and molecular analysis and electron microscopy in selected cases. RESULTS: US-guided MITS proved to be a safe and highly accurate procedure; none of the personnel were infected, and accuracy ranged from 69.1% for kidney, up to 90.1% for lungs, and reaching 98.7% and 97.5% for liver and heart, respectively. US-guided MITS provided a systemic view of the disease, describing the most common pathological findings and identifying viral and other infectious agents using ancillary techniques, and also allowed COVID-19 diagnosis confirmation in 5% of the cases that were negative in premortem and postmortem nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swab real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. CONCLUSIONS: Our data showed that US-guided MITS has the capacity similar to CDA not only to identify but also to characterize emergent diseases.

COVID-19 , Autopsy , Brazil/epidemiology , COVID-19 Testing , Humans , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Ultrasonography, Interventional
Viruses ; 13(12)2021 12 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1572657


The current COVID-19 pandemic demands massive testing by Real-time RT-PCR (Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction), which is considered the gold standard diagnostic test for the detection of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. However, the virus continues to evolve with mutations that lead to phenotypic alterations as higher transmissibility, pathogenicity or vaccine evasion. Another big issue are mutations in the annealing sites of primers and probes of RT-PCR diagnostic kits leading to false-negative results. Therefore, here we identify mutations in the N (Nucleocapsid) gene that affects the use of the GeneFinder COVID-19 Plus RealAmp Kit. We sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes from 17 positive samples with no N gene detection but with RDRP (RNA-dependent RNA polymerase) and E (Envelope) genes detection, and observed a set of three different mutations affecting the N detection: a deletion of 18 nucleotides (Del28877-28894), a substitution of GGG to AAC (28881-28883) and a frameshift mutation caused by deletion (Del28877-28878). The last one cause a deletion of six AAs (amino acids) located in the central intrinsic disorder region at protein level. We also found this mutation in 99 of the 14,346 sequenced samples by the Sao Paulo state Network for Pandemic Alert of Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants, demonstrating the circulation of the mutation in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Continuous monitoring and characterization of mutations affecting the annealing sites of primers and probes by genomic surveillance programs are necessary to maintain the effectiveness of the diagnosis of COVID-19.

COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing , COVID-19/diagnosis , Coronavirus Nucleocapsid Proteins/genetics , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Brazil/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , Coronavirus RNA-Dependent RNA Polymerase/genetics , DNA Primers , False Negative Reactions , Genome, Viral/genetics , Humans , Mutation , Phosphoproteins/genetics , RNA, Viral/genetics , SARS-CoV-2/genetics
Viruses ; 13(12)2021 12 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1572655


In December 2019, a novel coronavirus was detected in Wuhan, China, and rapidly spread worldwide. In Brazil, to date, there have been more than 20,000,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 550,000 deaths. The purpose of the current study was to determine the clinical and epidemiological profile of the population affected by COVID-19 that have attended referral hospitals in Southern region of Bahia State, to better understand the disease and its risk factors in order to enable more appropriate conduct for patients. An observational, descriptive, cross-sectional, exploratory study was conducted using secondary data collected from the Laboratório de Farmacogenômica e Epidemiologia Molecular, Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz (LAFEM/UESC). Chi-squared and Fisher's exact tests were applied to determine the association between clinical symptoms and laboratory results, and to identify risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 3135 individuals with suspected severe respiratory illness were analyzed and 41.4% of them tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Male individuals and having comorbidities were risk factors significantly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR = 1.17 and OR = 1.37, respectively). Interestingly, being a healthcare professional was a significantly protective factor (OR = 0.81, p < 0.001). Our findings highlight the importance of routinely testing the population for early identification of infected individuals, and also provide important information to health authorities and police makers to improve control measures, management, and screening protocols.

COVID-19/epidemiology , Secondary Care Centers/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Brazil/epidemiology , COVID-19/diagnosis , Child , Child, Preschool , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Health Personnel , Humans , Infant , Male , Middle Aged , Population Surveillance , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Young Adult
Cad. Saúde Pública (Online) ; 37(10): e00049821, 2021. tab, graf
Article in Portuguese | LILACS (Americas) | ID: covidwho-1558983


Em um contexto de transmissão comunitária e escassez de vacinas, a vacinação contra a COVID-19 deve focar na redução direta da morbidade e da mortalidade causadas pela doença. Portanto, é fundamental a definição de grupos prioritários para a vacinação pelo Programa Nacional de Imunizações (PNI), baseada no risco de hospitalização e óbito pela doença. Para tal, calculamos o sobrerrisco por sexo, faixa etária e comorbidades por meio dos registros de hospitalização e óbito por síndrome respiratória aguda grave com confirmação de COVID-19 (SRAG-COVID) em todo o Brasil nos primeiros seis meses de epidemia. Apresentaram maior sobrerrisco pessoas do sexo masculino (hospitalização = 1,1 e óbito = 1,2), pessoas acima de 45 anos para hospitalização (SRfe variando de 1,1 a 8,5) e pessoas acima de 55 anos para óbitos (SRfe variando de 1,5 a 18,3). Nos grupos de comorbidades, doença renal crônica, diabetes mellitus, doença cardiovascular e pneumopatia crônica conferiram sobrerrisco, enquanto para asma não houve evidência. Ter doença renal crônica ou diabetes mellitus e 60 anos ou mais mostrou-se um fator ainda mais forte, alcançando sobrerrisco de óbito 14 e 10 vezes maior do que na população geral, respectivamente. Para todas as comorbidades, houve um sobrerrisco mais alto em idades maiores, com um gradiente de diminuição em faixas mais altas. Esse padrão se inverteu quando consideramos o sobrerrisco em relação à população geral, tanto para hospitalização quanto para óbito. O presente estudo forneceu evidências a respeito do sobrerrisco de hospitalização e óbito por SRAG-COVID, auxiliando na definição de grupos prioritários para a vacinação contra a COVID-19.

En un contexto de transmisión comunitaria y escasez de vacunas, la vacunación contra la COVID-19 debe enfocarse en la reducción directa de la morbilidad y de la mortalidad causadas por la enfermedad. Por lo tanto, es fundamental la definición de grupos prioritarios para la vacunación por el Programa Nacional de Inmunizaciones (PNI), basada en el riesgo de hospitalización y óbito por la enfermedad. Para tal fin, calculamos el sobrerriesgo por sexo, franja de edad y comorbilidades mediante los registros de hospitalización y óbito por síndrome respiratorio agudo grave con confirmación de COVID-19 (SRAG-COVID) en todo Brasil, durante los primeros seis meses de epidemia. Presentaron mayor sobrerriesgo personas del sexo masculino (hospitalización = 1,1 y óbito = 1,2), personas por encima de 45 años para hospitalización (SRfe variando de 1,1 a 8,5) y personas por encima de 55 años para óbitos (SRfe variando de 1,5 a 18,3). En los grupos de comorbilidades, enfermedad renal crónica, diabetes mellitus, enfermedad cardiovascular y neumopatía crónica ofrecieron sobrerriesgo, mientras que para el asma no hubo evidencia. Sufrir una enfermedad renal crónica o diabetes mellitus y tener 60 años o más mostró un factor todavía más fuerte, alcanzando sobrerriesgo de enfermedad 14 y 10 veces mayor que en la población general, respectivamente. Para todas las comorbilidades, hubo un sobrerriesgo más alto en edades mayores, con un gradiente de disminución en franjas más altas. Este patrón se invirtió cuando consideramos el sobrerriesgo en relación con la población general, tanto para hospitalización como para óbito. El presente estudio proporcionó evidencias respecto al sobrerriesgo de hospitalización y óbito por SRAG-COVID, ayudando en la definición de grupos prioritarios para la vacunación contra la COVID-19.

In a context of community transmission and shortage of vaccines, COVID-19 vaccination should focus on directly reducing the morbidity and mortality caused by the disease. It was thus essential to define priority groups for vaccination by the Brazilian National Immunization Program (PNI in Portuguese), based on the risk of hospitalization and death from the disease. We calculated overrisk according to sex, age group, and comorbidities using hospitalization and death records from severe acute respiratory illness with confirmation of COVID-19 (SARI-COVID) in all of Brazil in the first 6 months of the epidemic. Higher overrisk was associated with male sex (hospitalization = 1.1 and death = 1.2), age over 45 years for hospitalization (OvRag ranging from 1.1 to 8.5), and age over 55 year for death (OvRag ranging from 1.5 to 18.3). In the groups with comorbidities, chronic kidney disease, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, and chronic lung disease were associated with overrisk, while there was no such evidence for asthma. Chronic kidney disease or diabetes and age over 60 showed an even stronger association, reaching overrisk of death 14 and 10 times greater than in the general population, respectively. For all the comorbidities, there was higher overrisk at older ages, with a downward gradient in the oldest age groups. This pattern was reversed when examining overrisk in the general population, for both hospitalization and death. The current study provided evidence of overrisk of hospitalization and death from SARI-COVID, assisting the definition of priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination.

Humans , Male , Infant , Aged , COVID-19 Vaccines , COVID-19 , Brazil/epidemiology , Comorbidity , Vaccination , SARS-CoV-2 , Hospitalization , Middle Aged
Int J Gynaecol Obstet ; 155(3): 524-531, 2021 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1562319


OBJECTIVE: To compare the outcomes of adolescent versus adult women during pregnancy and puerperium admitted to a dedicated intensive care unit (ICU) in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study, we retrieved data from the medical charts of 557 adolescent (<20 years) and adult (≥20 years) women. The association between demographic and clinical variables and the outcomes were compared in univariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: The maternal severity index (MSI) of adult women was significantly higher than in adolescents. In univariate log-binomial regression analysis, pneumothorax and circulatory dysfunction were positively associated with the composite primary outcome of death or transfer (for more complex care), whereas eclampsia was negatively associated. Being an adolescent was not associated with this outcome, not even when adjusting for potential confounders. Conversely, being an adolescent was associated with fewer complications (secondary outcome) even after adjusting for potential confounders (type of admission, eclampsia, pre-eclampsia, surgical site infection, abdominal hemorrhage, drug abuse, metabolic syndrome, malnutrition, pneumothorax, or circulatory dysfunction). CONCLUSION: In Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil, adult women admitted to the ICU because of gestational or birth complications had worse outcomes compared with adolescents.

Eclampsia , Intensive Care Units , Adolescent , Adult , Brazil/epidemiology , Eclampsia/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Pregnancy , Pregnant Women , Retrospective Studies
Cad. Saúde Pública (Online) ; 37(9): e00069521, 2021. tab
Article in English | LILACS (Americas) | ID: covidwho-1551342


The understanding of health care demands and possible access barriers may support policymaking and best practices targeting the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and related identities (LGBT+) population. The aims of the Brazilian LGBT+ Health Survey were to characterize the LGBT+ population during the COVID-19 pandemic and to specify the characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic in this population. This is a cross-sectional online study, with a convenience sample of 976 individuals identified as LGBT+, aged 18 years or older from Brazil. It allows investigations of sexuality, discrimination, internal homophobia, health-related behaviors, and health care access. The study adopts a conceptual framework (i.e., validated tools and measures) common to other epidemiological studies, allowing comparisons. We describe the study methodology, some descriptive results, and health-selected indicators compared with the Brazilian National Health Survey. Most of the respondents were from Southeast Region (80.2%), mean aged 31.3 (± 11.5 years). Regarding COVID-19, 4.8% tested positive. Both weekly episodes of discrimination (36%) and depression prevalence (24.8%) were high among the LGBT+ population in Brazil, highlighting mental health and homophobia as major concerns in the LGBT+ context during the pandemic. Although a decade has passed since the institution of the Brazilian National Policy for Comprehensive LGBT Health, appropriate training of health professionals to offer adequate services is still needed. Knowledge of the specific health demands of this group might guide person-centered best practices, promote sexual minority high-acceptance settings, and contribute to higher equity during the pandemic.

A compreensão das demandas de cuidados de saúde e das possíveis barreiras ao acesso pode apoiar a formulação de políticas e as melhores práticas voltadas para a população de lésbicas, gays, bissexuais, transgêneros e identidades relacionadas (LGBT+). O Inquérito Nacional de Saúde LGBT+ teve como objetivos caracterizar a população LGBT+ durante a pandemia da COVID-19 e especificar as características da pandemia da COVID-19 nessa população. Este é um estudo transversal online com uma amostra de conveniência de 976 indivíduos identificados como LGBT+ com idade 18 anos ou mais, no Brasil. O inquérito permite a investigação da sexualidade, discriminação, homofobia interna, comportamentos relacionados à saúde e acesso a cuidados de saúde. O inquérito adota um arcabouço conceitual (p.ex.: ferramentas e medidas validadas) comum a outros estudos epidemiológicos, o que permite comparações. O artigo descreve a metodologia do inquérito, alguns resultados descritivos e indicadores de saúde selecionados, em comparação com a Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde. A maioria dos participantes era do Sudeste (80,2%), com média de idade de 31,3 (± 11,5 anos). Com relação à COVID-19, 4,8% testaram positivos. As taxas de episódios semanais de discriminação (36%) e de prevalência de depressão (24,8%) eram altas na população LGBT+ brasileira, o que destaca a saúde mental e a homofobia como preocupações no contexto LGBT+ durante a pandemia. Embora tenha transcorrido uma década desde a implementação da Política Nacional de Saúde Integral LGBT, ainda é necessário treinamento de profissionais de saúde para oferecer serviços adequados. O conhecimento das demandas específicas de saúde nesse grupo pode orientar melhores práticas centradas na pessoa, promover ambientes de acolhimento de minorias sexuais e contribuir para maior equidade durante a pandemia.

La compresión de las demandas de cuidados de salud y las posibles barreras de acceso a los mismos pueden apoyar en la creación de políticas y realización de mejores prácticas, enfocando a la población lesbiana, gay, bisexual, transgénero e identidades relacionadas (LGBT+). Los objetivos de la Encuesta Brasileña sobre la Salud LGBT+ fueron caracterizar a la población LGBT+ durante la pandemia de COVID-19 y especificar las características de la pandemia COVID-19 en esta población. Se trata de un estudio transversal en línea, con una muestra de conveniencia de 976 individuos brasileños identificados con el colectivo LGBT+, con una edad comprendida entre 18 años o más. Permite investigaciones de sexualidad, discriminación, homofobia interna, comportamientos relacionados con la salud, y acceso a cuidados de salud. El estudio adopta un marco conceptual común (p.ej., herramientas validadas y medidas) respecto a otros estudios epidemiológicos, permitiendo comparaciones. Expusimos la metodología de estudio, algunos resultados descriptivos, así como indicadores de salud seleccionados comparados con la Encuesta Nacional de Salud. La mayoría de quienes respondieron eran originarios de la región sureste (80,2%), la media de edad fue 31,3 (± 11,5 años). Respecto al COVID-19, 4,8% dieron positivo tras las pruebas. Tanto los episodios semanales de discriminación (36%) y prevalencia depresión (24,8%) fueron altos entre la población LGBT+ en Brasil, resaltando la salud mental y la homofobia como principales preocupaciones en el contexto LGBT+ durante la pandemia. A pesar de que ha pasado una década desde la institución de la Política Nacional de Salud Integral LGBT, sigue siendo necesario un entrenamiento apropiado de profesionales de salud para ofrecer servicios adecuados. El conocimiento de las demandas específicas de salud de este grupo puede llevar a mejores prácticas centradas en estas personas, promover contextos de alta aceptación de minorías sexuales, así como contribuir a una equidad más alta durante la pandemia.

Humans , Female , Adult , Transgender Persons , Sexual and Gender Minorities , COVID-19 , Brazil/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Health Services Accessibility