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2.
Ann Med ; 53(1): 257-266, 2021 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1574445

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To appraise effective predictors for COVID-19 mortality in a retrospective cohort study. METHODS: A total of 1270 COVID-19 patients, including 984 admitted in Sino French New City Branch (training and internal validation sets randomly split at 7:3 ratio) and 286 admitted in Optical Valley Branch (external validation set) of Wuhan Tongji hospital, were included in this study. Forty-eight clinical and laboratory features were screened with LASSO method. Further multi-tree extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) machine learning-based model was used to rank importance of features selected from LASSO and subsequently constructed death risk prediction model with simple-tree XGBoost model. Performances of models were evaluated by AUC, prediction accuracy, precision, and F1 scores. RESULTS: Six features, including disease severity, age, levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), ferritin, and interleukin-10 (IL-10), were selected as predictors for COVID-19 mortality. Simple-tree XGBoost model conducted by these features can predict death risk accurately with >90% precision and >85% sensitivity, as well as F1 scores >0.90 in training and validation sets. CONCLUSION: We proposed the disease severity, age, serum levels of hs-CRP, LDH, ferritin, and IL-10 as significant predictors for death risk of COVID-19, which may help to identify the high-risk COVID-19 cases. KEY MESSAGES A machine learning method is used to build death risk model for COVID-19 patients. Disease severity, age, hs-CRP, LDH, ferritin, and IL-10 are death risk factors. These findings may help to identify the high-risk COVID-19 cases.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , Clinical Decision Rules , Hospitalization , Machine Learning , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , C-Reactive Protein/metabolism , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/metabolism , COVID-19/physiopathology , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , China/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Comorbidity , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology , Female , Ferritins/metabolism , Humans , Hypertension/epidemiology , Interleukin-10/metabolism , L-Lactate Dehydrogenase/metabolism , Male , Middle Aged , Prognosis , Reproducibility of Results , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Severity of Illness Index
3.
Nutrients ; 13(2)2021 Jan 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1574048

ABSTRACT

North of Italy was severely hit by the COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 19) pandemic. This induced the government to adopt severely restrictive measures to reduce the contagion risk, forcing most of the population to stop working and from leisure activities, and to remain at home for several weeks. Our study aimed to evaluate the effect of COVID-related quarantine on smoking and dietary habits of a well-characterized northern Italian rural population. For this purpose, while lockdown restrictions were in place (February-April 2020), 359 subjects from the Brisighella Heart Study cohort underwent a phone interview about their lifestyle habit changes during COVID-19-related quarantine. Quarantine did not significantly modify smoking habit nor body mass index. Subjects significantly increased daily carbohydrates consumption, all fresh vegetables, healthy vegetable oils, milk and yogurt, alcoholic drinks, sugars and sweets, and coffee. The weekly consumption of low-fat meat, cured meat other than ham, cheeses, eggs, nuts and mixed seed oils significantly increased, while the weekly intake of fish, mussels, and legumes significantly decreased during lockdown. The Dietary Quality Index was reduced from 42.4 ± 4.1 to 37.8 ± 4.7 (p < 0.03). In accordance with our findings, COVID-19-related quarantine might worsen the quality of diet, also leading to an increased intake of almost all food categories.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Feeding Behavior , Life Style , Quarantine , Rural Population , SARS-CoV-2 , Adult , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Cardiovascular Diseases/prevention & control , Female , Humans , Italy , Longitudinal Studies , Male , Middle Aged
7.
Adv Exp Med Biol ; 1318: 263-291, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1536207

ABSTRACT

We herein seek to expound on up-to-the-minute information regarding cardiovascular disease in the era of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by highlighting acute myocardial injury caused by COVID-19 and probing into its pathophysiology, clinical signs, diagnostic tests, and treatment modalities. We aim to share the latest research findings vis-à-vis cardiovascular disease patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 on the association between hypertension and this infectious disease along with the relevant recommendations; describe the mechanism of coronary artery disease in such patients together with the necessary measures in the setting of non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome, ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, and chronic coronary syndrome; discuss tachy- and bradyarrhythmias in the COVID-19 setting alongside their treatments; elucidate coagulopathies, venous thromboembolism, and its prophylactic measures in the context of this infection; set out the cardiopulmonary resuscitation protocol as well as the pertinent safety concerns during the current pandemic; and, finally, explicate drug-drug interactions between COVID-19 and cardiovascular medication in hypertension, acute coronary syndrome, heart failure, venous thromboembolism, and arrhythmias.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cardiovascular Diseases , ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction , Cardiovascular Diseases/diagnosis , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Humans , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
8.
Stud Health Technol Inform ; 287: 149-152, 2021 Nov 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1525369

ABSTRACT

One serious pandemic can nullify years of efforts to extend life expectancy and reduce disability. The coronavirus pandemic has been a perturbing factor that has provided an opportunity to assess not only the effectiveness of health systems for cardio-vascular diseases (CVD), but also their sustainability. The goal of our research is to analyze the influence of public health factors on the mortality from circulatory diseases using machine learning methods. We analysed a very large dataset that consisted of the information collected from the national registers in Russia. We included data from 2015 to 2021. It included 340 factors that characterize organization of healthcare in Russia. The resulting area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC of ROC) of the Random Forest based regression model was 92% with a testing dataset. The models allow for automated retraining as time passes and epidemiological and other situations change. They also allow additional characteristics of regions and health care organizations to be added to existing training datasets depending on the target. The developed models allow the calculation of the probability of the target for 6-12 months with an error of 8%. Moreover, the models allow to calculate scenarios and the value of the target indicator when other indicators of the region change.


Subject(s)
Cardiovascular Diseases , Coronavirus Infections , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Delivery of Health Care , Humans , Machine Learning , ROC Curve
9.
Blood Coagul Fibrinolysis ; 32(8): 544-549, 2021 Dec 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1526211

ABSTRACT

Standard biomarkers have been widely used for COVID-19 diagnosis and prognosis. We hypothesize that thrombogenicity metrics measured by thromboelastography will provide better diagnostic and prognostic utility versus standard biomarkers in COVID-19 positive patients. In this observational prospective study, we included 119 hospitalized COVID-19 positive patients and 15 COVID-19 negative patients. On admission, we measured standard biomarkers and thrombogenicity using a novel thromboelastography assay (TEG-6s). In-hospital all-cause death and thrombotic occurrences (thromboembolism, myocardial infarction and stroke) were recorded. Most COVID-19 patients were African--Americans (68%). COVID-19 patients versus COVID-19 negative patients had higher platelet-fibrin clot strength (P-FCS), fibrin clot strength (FCS) and functional fibrinogen level (FLEV) (P ≤ 0.003 for all). The presence of high TEG-6 s metrics better discriminated COVID-19 positive from negative patients. COVID-19 positive patients with sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score at least 3 had higher P-FCS, FCS and FLEV than patients with scores less than 3 (P ≤ 0.001 for all comparisons). By multivariate analysis, the in-hospital composite endpoint occurrence of death and thrombotic events was independently associated with SOFA score more than 3 [odds ratio (OR) = 2.9, P = 0.03], diabetes (OR = 3.3, P = 0.02) and FCS > 40 mm (OR = 3.4, P = 0.02). This largest observational study suggested the early diagnostic and prognostic utility of thromboelastography to identify COVID-19 and should be considered hypothesis generating. Our results also support the recent FDA guidance regarding the importance of measurement of whole blood viscoelastic properties in COVID-19 patients. Our findings are consistent with the observation of higher hospitalization rates and poorer outcomes for African--Americans with COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/blood , SARS-CoV-2 , Thrombophilia/diagnosis , Adult , African Americans/statistics & numerical data , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Biomarkers , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19 Testing , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Comorbidity , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology , Early Diagnosis , Female , Fibrin/analysis , Fibrin Clot Lysis Time , Fibrinogen/analysis , Hospitalization , Humans , Hyperlipidemias/epidemiology , L-Lactate Dehydrogenase/blood , Male , Middle Aged , Obesity/epidemiology , Organ Dysfunction Scores , Prognosis , Prospective Studies , Thrombelastography , Thrombophilia/blood , Thrombophilia/drug therapy , Thrombophilia/etiology , Treatment Outcome , /statistics & numerical data
11.
Biomed Res Int ; 2021: 6671291, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1518179

ABSTRACT

Background: With the COVID-19 epidemic breakout in China, up to 25% of diagnosed cases are considered to be severe. To effectively predict the progression of COVID-19 via patients' clinical features at an early stage, the prevalence of these clinical factors and their relationships with severe illness were assessed. Methods: In this study, electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Chinese database) were searched to obtain relevant studies, including information on severe patients. Publication bias analysis, sensitivity analysis, prevalence, sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio, diagnosis odds ratio calculation, and visualization graphics were achieved through software Review Manager 5.3, Stata 15, Meta-DiSc 1.4, and R. Results: Data of 3.547 patients from 24 studies were included in this study. The results revealed that patients with chronic respiratory system diseases (pooled positive likelihood 6.07, 95% CI: 3.12-11.82), chronic renal disease (4.79, 2.04-11.25), cardiovascular disease (3.45, 2.19-5.44), and symptoms of the onset of chest tightness (3.8, 1.44-10.05), shortness of breath (3.18, 2.24-4.51), and diarrhea (2.04, 1.38-3.04) exhibited increased probability of progressing to severe illness. C-reactive protein, ratio of neutrophils to lymphocytes, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate increased a lot in severe patients compared to nonsevere. Yet, it was found that clinical features including fever, cough, and headache, as well as some comorbidities, have little warning value. Conclusions: The clinical features and laboratory examination could be used to estimate the process of infection in COVID-19 patients. The findings contribute to the more efficient prediction of serious illness for patients with COVID-19 to reduce mortality.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/etiology , C-Reactive Protein/analysis , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Comorbidity , Cough/virology , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology , Female , Fever/virology , Hematologic Tests , Humans , Hypertension/epidemiology , Male , Severity of Illness Index
12.
Nat Med ; 27(4): 601-615, 2021 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1517636

ABSTRACT

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the pathogen responsible for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which has resulted in global healthcare crises and strained health resources. As the population of patients recovering from COVID-19 grows, it is paramount to establish an understanding of the healthcare issues surrounding them. COVID-19 is now recognized as a multi-organ disease with a broad spectrum of manifestations. Similarly to post-acute viral syndromes described in survivors of other virulent coronavirus epidemics, there are increasing reports of persistent and prolonged effects after acute COVID-19. Patient advocacy groups, many members of which identify themselves as long haulers, have helped contribute to the recognition of post-acute COVID-19, a syndrome characterized by persistent symptoms and/or delayed or long-term complications beyond 4 weeks from the onset of symptoms. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of the current literature on post-acute COVID-19, its pathophysiology and its organ-specific sequelae. Finally, we discuss relevant considerations for the multidisciplinary care of COVID-19 survivors and propose a framework for the identification of those at high risk for post-acute COVID-19 and their coordinated management through dedicated COVID-19 clinics.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/complications , SARS-CoV-2 , Acute Disease , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/ethnology , COVID-19/therapy , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Cardiovascular Diseases/therapy , Humans , Patient Advocacy , Syndrome , Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome/epidemiology , Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome/therapy , Venous Thromboembolism/epidemiology , Venous Thromboembolism/prevention & control
13.
Chemosphere ; 286(Pt 1): 131615, 2022 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1509647

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Systematic evaluations of the cumulative effects and mortality displacement of ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution on deaths are lacking. We aimed to discern the cumulative effect profile of PM exposure, and investigate the presence of mortality displacement in a large-scale population. METHODS: We conducted a time-series analysis with different exposure-lag models on 13 cities in Jiangsu, China, to estimate the effects of PM pollution on non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality (2015-2019). Over-dispersed Poisson generalized additive models were integrated with distributed lag models to estimate cumulative exposure effects, and assess mortality displacement. RESULTS: Pooled cumulative effect estimates with lags of 0-7 and 0-14 days were substantially larger than those with single-day and 2-day moving average lags. For each 10 µg/m3 increment in PM2.5 concentration with a cumulative lag of 0-7 days, we estimated an increase of 0.50 % (95 % CI: 0.29, 0.72), 0.63 % (95 % CI: 0.38, 0.88), and 0.50 % (95 % CI: 0.01, 1.01) in pooled estimates of non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. Both PM10 and PM2.5 were associated with significant increases in non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality with a cumulative lag of 0-14 days. We observed mortality displacement within 30 days for non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that risk assessment based on single-day or 2-day moving average lag structures may underestimate the adverse effects of PM pollution. The cumulative effects of PM exposure on non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality can last up to 14 days. Evidence of mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths was found.


Subject(s)
Air Pollutants , Air Pollution , Cardiovascular Diseases , Air Pollutants/analysis , Air Pollutants/toxicity , Air Pollution/analysis , Air Pollution/statistics & numerical data , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , China/epidemiology , Environmental Exposure/analysis , Environmental Exposure/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Mortality , Particulate Matter/analysis , Particulate Matter/toxicity
14.
Heart Surg Forum ; 24(5): E906-E908, 2021 Oct 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1502125

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a highly contagious respiratory disease that threatens global health. During the pandemic period of COVID-19, the task for prevention in the general ward of cardiovascular surgery is fairly arduous. The present study intends to summarize our experience with infection control, including ward setting, admission procedures, personnel management, health education, and so on, to provide references for clinical management.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , Cardiac Surgical Procedures/standards , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Guidelines as Topic , Pandemics/prevention & control , Patients' Rooms/standards , Tertiary Care Centers , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cardiovascular Diseases/surgery , China/epidemiology , Comorbidity , Humans , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
16.
Aging (Albany NY) ; 13(20): 23459-23470, 2021 10 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1498163

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Since April 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 (B.1.167) Delta variant has been rampant worldwide. Recently, this variant has spread in Guangzhou, China. Our objective was to characterize the clinical features and risk factors of severe cases of the Delta variant in Guangzhou. METHODS: A total of 144 patients with the Delta variant were enrolled, and the data between the severe and non-severe groups were compared. Logistic regression methods and Cox multivariate regression analysis were used to investigate the risk factors of severe cases. RESULTS: The severity of the Delta variant was 11.1%. Each 1-year increase in age (OR, 1.089; 95% CI, 1.035-1.147; P = 0.001) and each 1-µmol/L increase in total bilirubin (OR, 1.198; 95% CI, 1.021-1.406; P = 0.039) were risk factors for severe cases. Moreover, the risk of progression to severe cases increased 13.444-fold and 3.922-fold when the age was greater than 58.5 years (HR, 13.444; 95% CI, 2.989-60.480; P = 0.001) or the total bilirubin level was greater than 7.23 µmol/L (HR, 3.922; 95% CI, 1.260-12.207; P = 0.018), respectively. CONCLUSION: Older age and elevated total bilirubin were independent risk factors for severe cases of the Delta variant in Guangzhou, especially if the age was greater than 58.5 years or the total bilirubin level was greater than 7.23 µmol/L.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/therapy , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Adult , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Vaccines , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , China/epidemiology , Comorbidity , Cough/etiology , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology , Female , Fever/etiology , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Hypertension/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Severity of Illness Index
17.
IEEE Pulse ; 12(5): 2-5, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1494330

ABSTRACT

In late February 2020, a time when severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, or COVID-19) still felt like an abstraction in the United States, New York City's first infected patient was admitted to Mount Sinai Hospital's emergency room. Working a few doors down was Sean Pinney, the Director of Advanced Heart Failure and Transplantation. Little did he know, but "that night was the beginning of hell," he said.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , New York/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2
18.
Expert Rev Clin Immunol ; 17(11): 1211-1220, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1483218

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: In daily practice management of psoriasis, evaluation of risk factors for infections is having a growing influence. Indeed, in psoriatic patients, risk of infections may be due to psoriasis itself, immunomodulatory therapy, and comorbidities that may increase this risk and patient hospitalization. AREAS COVERED: Given the greater understanding of psoriasis pathogenesis and the increasing number of treatment options, it is particularly important to customize therapy according to each, single patient; psoriasis features and comorbidities are also essential to tailor treatment goals. EXPERT OPINION: In this perspective, the current knowledge on the infectious risk in psoriatic patient, related to comorbidities, such as diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary, to 'special populations,' to chronic infections, such as latent tuberculosis, chronic hepatitis B and C, and HIV, and to the most recent Covid-19 pandemic scenario, is reviewed and discussed in order to suggest the most appropriate approach and achieve the best available therapeutic option.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , Psoriasis/therapy , Risk Assessment/methods , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Comorbidity , Humans , Pandemics , Psoriasis/epidemiology , Risk Assessment/statistics & numerical data , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2/physiology , Virus Diseases/epidemiology
19.
Methodist Debakey Cardiovasc J ; 17(4): 68-78, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1481240

ABSTRACT

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been the defining healthcare issue since its outbreak, consuming healthcare systems and disrupting all aspects of human life throughout 2020 and continuing through 2021. When reviewing cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, the first tendency may be to focus on the negative disruption. Months of quarantine, isolation, and missed healthcare visits or delayed care may have exacerbated the epidemic of CVD in the United States. Looking back, however, perhaps it wasn't a lost year as much as a health crisis that better prepared us for the battle to improve cardiovascular health. The pandemic brought new platforms for interacting with patients eager to engage, presenting a unique opportunity to reset how we approach preventive care. In this review, we discuss what the pandemic has taught us about caring for those vulnerable patients who were most afflicted-older adults, persons of color, and people facing adverse socioeconomic circumstances-and who continue to be impacted by CVD. We also identify opportunities for enhanced CVD prevention now boosted by the overnight adoption of telemedicine and other innovative cardiac care models. Lastly, we discuss how the COVID-19 pandemic has motivated physicians and patients alike to prioritize our health above all else, if only transiently, and how we can leverage this increased health awareness and investment into long-term, meaningful disease prevention.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cardiovascular Diseases , Telemedicine , Aged , Cardiovascular Diseases/diagnosis , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Cardiovascular Diseases/prevention & control , Delivery of Health Care , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2 , United States/epidemiology
20.
BMC Public Health ; 21(1): 1533, 2021 08 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1477304

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD), one of the most common comorbidities of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has been suspected to be associated with adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients, but their correlation remains controversial. METHOD: This is a quantitative meta-analysis on the basis of adjusted effect estimates. PubMed, Web of Science, MedRxiv, Scopus, Elsevier ScienceDirect, Cochrane Library and EMBASE were searched comprehensively to obtain a complete data source up to January 7, 2021. Pooled effects (hazard ratio (HR), odds ratio (OR)) and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated to evaluate the risk of the adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients with CVD. Heterogeneity was assessed by Cochran's Q-statistic, I2test, and meta-regression. In addition, we also provided the prediction interval, which was helpful for assessing whether the variation across studies was clinically significant. The robustness of the results was evaluated by sensitivity analysis. Publication bias was assessed by Begg's test, Egger's test, and trim-and-fill method. RESULT: Our results revealed that COVID-19 patients with pre-existing CVD tended more to adverse outcomes on the basis of 203 eligible studies with 24,032,712 cases (pooled ORs = 1.41, 95% CIs: 1.32-1.51, prediction interval: 0.84-2.39; pooled HRs = 1.34, 95% CIs: 1.23-1.46, prediction interval: 0.82-2.21). Further subgroup analyses stratified by age, the proportion of males, study design, disease types, sample size, region and disease outcomes also showed that pre-existing CVD was significantly associated with adverse outcomes among COVID-19 patients. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrated that pre-existing CVD was an independent risk factor associated with adverse outcomes among COVID-19 patients.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cardiovascular Diseases , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Comorbidity , Humans , Male , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2
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