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4.
PLoS One ; 17(1): e0261835, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1622345

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the reaction of stock markets to the Covid-19 pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 (GFC) and compares their influence in terms of risk exposures. The empirical investigation is conducted using the modified ICSS test, DCC-GARCH, and Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness analysis to examine financial contagion and volatility spillovers. To further reveal the impact of these two crises, the statistical features of tranquil and crisis periods under different time intervals are also compared. The test results show that although the outbreak's origin was in China, the US stock market is the source of financial contagion and volatility spillovers during the pandemic, just as it was during the GFC. The propagation of shocks is considerably higher between developed economies compared to emerging markets. Additionally, the results show that the COVID-19 pandemic induced a more severe contagious effect and risk transmission than the GFC. The study provides an extensive examination of the COVID-19 pandemic and the GFC in terms of financial contagion and volatility spillovers. The results suggest the presence of strong co-movements of world stock markets with the US equity market, especially in periods of financial turmoil.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Investments , COVID-19/economics , China , Commerce/economics , Humans , Investments/economics , Pandemics/economics , United States
5.
PLoS One ; 16(12): e0261615, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1592216

ABSTRACT

One of the most pressing challenges facing food systems in Africa is ensuring availability of a healthy and sustainable diet to 2.4 billion people by 2050. The continent has struggled with development challenges, particularly chronic food insecurity and pervasive poverty. In Africa's food systems, fish and other aquatic foods play a multifaceted role in generating income, and providing a critical source of essential micronutrients. To date, there are no estimates of investment and potential returns for domestic fish production in Africa. To contribute to policy debates about the future of fish in Africa, we applied the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agriculture Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) to explore two Pan-African scenarios for fish sector growth: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a high-growth scenario for capture fisheries and aquaculture with accompanying strong gross domestic product growth (HIGH). Post-model analysis was used to estimate employment and aquaculture investment requirements for the sector in Africa. Africa's fish sector is estimated to support 20.7 million jobs in 2030, and 21.6 million by 2050 under the BAU. Approximately 2.6 people will be employed indirectly along fisheries and aquaculture value chains for every person directly employed in the fish production stage. Under the HIGH scenario, total employment in Africa's fish food system will reach 58.0 million jobs, representing 2.4% of total projected population in Africa by 2050. Aquaculture production value is estimated to achieve US$ 3.3 billion and US$ 20.4 billion per year under the BAU and HIGH scenarios by 2050, respectively. Farm-gate investment costs for the three key inputs (fish feeds, farm labor, and fish seed) to achieve the aquaculture volumes projected by 2050 are estimated at US$ 1.8 billion per year under the BAU and US$ 11.6 billion per year under the HIGH scenario. Sustained investments are critical to sustain capture fisheries and support aquaculture growth for food system transformation towards healthier diets.


Subject(s)
Fisheries/economics , Africa , Commerce/economics , Commerce/legislation & jurisprudence , Employment , Fisheries/legislation & jurisprudence , Humans , Investments , Models, Economic
6.
PLoS One ; 16(12): e0261761, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1581732

ABSTRACT

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has impacted the world economy in various ways. In particular, the drastic shift to telework has dramatically changed how people work. Whether the new style of working from home (WFH) will remain in our society highly depends on its effects on workers' productivity. However, to the best of our knowledge, the effects of WFH on productivity are still unclear. By leveraging unique surveys conducted at four manufacturing firms in Japan, we assess within-company productivity differences between those who work from home and those who do not, along with identifying possible factors of productivity changes due to WFH. Our main findings are as follows. First, after ruling out the time-invariant component of individual productivity and separate trends specific to employee attributes, we find that workers who worked from home experienced productivity declines more than those who did not. Second, our analysis shows that poor WFH setups and communication difficulties are the major reasons for productivity losses. Third, we find that the mental health of workers who work from home is better than that of workers who are unable to work from home. Our result suggests that if appropriate investments in upgrading WFH setups and facilitating communication can be made, WFH may improve productivity by improving employees' health and well-being.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/economics , Teleworking/economics , Teleworking/trends , Adult , COVID-19/psychology , Commerce/economics , Efficiency , Female , Humans , Japan , Male , Middle Aged , Models, Theoretical , Pandemics/economics , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Surveys and Questionnaires
7.
PLoS One ; 16(11): e0259308, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1505876

ABSTRACT

The risk spillover among financial markets has been noticeably investigated in a burgeoning number of literature. Given those doctrines, we scrutinize the impact persistence of volatility spillover and illiquidity spillover of Chinese commodity markets in this paper. Based on the sample from 2010 to 2020, we reveal that there is a cross-market spillover of volatility and illiquidity in China and also, interactions between volatility and illiquidity in different financial markets are pronounced. More importantly, we demonstrate that different commodity markets have different responsiveness to stock market shocks, which embeds their market characteristics. Specifically, we discover that the majority of the traders in gold market might be hedger and therefore gold market is more sensitive to stock market illiquidity shock and thus the shock impact in persistent. On the other hand, agricultural markets like corn and soybean markets might be dominated by investors and thus those markets respond to the stock market volatility shocks and the shock impact in persistent over 10 periods given the first period of risk shock happening. In fact, different Chinese commodity markets' responsiveness towards Chinese stock market risk shocks indicates the stock market risk impact persistence in Chinese commodity markets. This result can help policymakers to understand the policy propagation effect according to this risk spillover channel and risk impact persistence mechanism in China.


Subject(s)
Agriculture/economics , Commerce/economics , Investments/economics , Marketing/economics , Metals/supply & distribution , Policy , China , Humans , Models, Statistical , Risk Factors
9.
PLoS Med ; 18(9): e1003729, 2021 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1470653

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Previous product placement trials in supermarkets are limited in scope and outcome data collected. This study assessed the effects on store-level sales, household-level purchasing, and dietary behaviours of a healthier supermarket layout. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This is a prospective matched controlled cluster trial with 2 intervention components: (i) new fresh fruit and vegetable sections near store entrances (replacing smaller displays at the back) and frozen vegetables repositioned to the entrance aisle, plus (ii) the removal of confectionery from checkouts and aisle ends opposite. In this pilot study, the intervention was implemented for 6 months in 3 discount supermarkets in England. Three control stores were matched on store sales and customer profiles and neighbourhood deprivation. Women customers aged 18 to 45 years, with loyalty cards, were assigned to the intervention (n = 62) or control group (n = 88) of their primary store. The trial registration number is NCT03518151. Interrupted time series analysis showed that increases in store-level sales of fruits and vegetables were greater in intervention stores than predicted at 3 (1.71 standard deviations (SDs) (95% CI 0.45, 2.96), P = 0.01) and 6 months follow-up (2.42 SDs (0.22, 4.62), P = 0.03), equivalent to approximately 6,170 and approximately 9,820 extra portions per store, per week, respectively. The proportion of purchasing fruits and vegetables per week rose among intervention participants at 3 and 6 months compared to control participants (0.2% versus -3.0%, P = 0.22; 1.7% versus -3.5%, P = 0.05, respectively). Store sales of confectionery were lower in intervention stores than predicted at 3 (-1.05 SDs (-1.98, -0.12), P = 0.03) and 6 months (-1.37 SDs (-2.95, 0.22), P = 0.09), equivalent to approximately 1,359 and approximately 1,575 fewer portions per store, per week, respectively; no differences were observed for confectionery purchasing. Changes in dietary variables were predominantly in the expected direction for health benefit. Intervention implementation was not within control of the research team, and stores could not be randomised. It is a pilot study, and, therefore, not powered to detect an effect. CONCLUSIONS: Healthier supermarket layouts can improve the nutrition profile of store sales and likely improve household purchasing and dietary quality. Placing fruits and vegetables near store entrances should be considered alongside policies to limit prominent placement of unhealthy foods. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03518151 (pre-results).


Subject(s)
Commerce , Consumer Behavior , Diet, Healthy , Food , Nutritive Value , Supermarkets , Adolescent , Adult , Candy , Choice Behavior , Commerce/economics , Consumer Behavior/economics , Diet, Healthy/economics , England , Female , Food/adverse effects , Food/economics , Food Preferences , Frozen Foods , Fruit , Humans , Interrupted Time Series Analysis , Middle Aged , Pilot Projects , Prospective Studies , Time Factors , Vegetables , Young Adult
11.
J Appl Psychol ; 106(8): 1188-1201, 2021 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1368913

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths in the U.S. As chief strategists of their respective firms, how do Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) react to mortality salience associated with the number of new daily COVID deaths in the U.S.? To answer this question, we integrate terror management theory (TMT) with regulatory focus theory to examine how CEOs respond to mortality salience. Based on a sample of CEOs of S&P 500 firms, we found that mortality salience was associated with CEOs' increased other-orientation, and this association was more pronounced among those with high prevention focus. Mortality salience also was associated with CEOs' decreased self-orientation, particularly among those with high promotion focus. We also found that CEOs' self-orientation was negatively related to the likelihood of their firms' making community donations. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Commerce/economics , Death , Fear/psychology , Models, Psychological , Pandemics , Adult , COVID-19/epidemiology , Charities , Female , Humans , Male , Motivation , Organizational Culture , SARS-CoV-2
12.
Nutrients ; 13(8)2021 Aug 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1367877

ABSTRACT

Evidence for effective government policies to reduce exposure to alcohol's carcinogenic and hepatoxic effects has strengthened in recent decades. Policies with the strongest evidence involve reducing the affordability, availability and cultural acceptability of alcohol. However, policies that reduce population consumption compete with powerful commercial vested interests. This paper draws on the Canadian Alcohol Policy Evaluation (CAPE), a formal assessment of effective government action on alcohol across Canadian jurisdictions. It also draws on alcohol policy case studies elsewhere involving attempts to introduce minimum unit pricing and cancer warning labels on alcohol containers. Canadian governments collectively received a failing grade (F) for alcohol policy implementation during the most recent CAPE assessment in 2017. However, had the best practices observed in any one jurisdiction been implemented consistently, Canada would have received an A grade. Resistance to effective alcohol policies is due to (1) lack of public awareness of both need and effectiveness, (2) a lack of government regulatory mechanisms to implement effective policies, (3) alcohol industry lobbying, and (4) a failure from the public health community to promote specific and feasible actions as opposed to general principles, e.g., 'increased prices' or 'reduced affordability'. There is enormous untapped potential in most countries for the implementation of proven strategies to reduce alcohol-related harm. While alcohol policies have weakened in many countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, societies may now also be more accepting of public health-inspired policies with proven effectiveness and potential economic benefits.


Subject(s)
Alcohol Drinking/legislation & jurisprudence , Alcoholic Beverages/legislation & jurisprudence , Health Policy , Public Health , Alcohol Drinking/adverse effects , Alcoholic Beverages/economics , COVID-19/epidemiology , Canada , Commerce/economics , Commerce/standards , Costs and Cost Analysis , Government Programs , Government Regulation , Humans , Pandemics , Product Labeling/legislation & jurisprudence , Public Policy , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification
13.
PLoS One ; 16(6): e0252729, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1256045

ABSTRACT

This paper estimates the benefits and costs of state suppression policies to "bend the curve" during the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States. We employ an approach that values benefits and costs in terms of additions or subtractions to total production. Relative to a baseline in which only the infected and at-risk populations mitigate the spread of coronavirus, we estimate that total benefits of suppression policies to economic output are between $632.5 billion and $765.0 billion from early March 2020 to August 1, 2020. Relative to private mitigation, output lost due to suppression policies is estimated to be between $214.2 billion and $331.5 billion. The cost estimate is based on the duration of nonessential business closures and stay-at-home orders, which were enforced between 42 and 65 days. Our results indicate that the net benefits of suppression policies to slow the spread of COVID-19 are positive and may be substantial. We discuss uncertainty surrounding several parameters and employ alternative methods for valuing mortality benefits, which also suggest that suppression measures had positive net benefits.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/economics , Quarantine/economics , Commerce/economics , Cost-Benefit Analysis/methods , Humans , Physical Distancing , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , United States
14.
PLoS One ; 16(5): e0251752, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1243845

ABSTRACT

During periods of market stress, risk-averse investors reallocate their investments from stocks to gold in a bid to hedge risks. Market participants interpret the induced gold price increase as an indication of safe-haven purchases and a signal of increased uncertainty in the general economic and financial conditions, thereby causing higher gold price volatility. The aim of this paper is to analyze whether this flight to safety effect can be observed during the COVID-19 crisis, which is considered to be a one-of-a-kind crisis and obviously of different origin compared to previous (financial) crises. By examining the interactions between the (option-implied) volatilities of the stock market (VIX) and of the gold (GVZ) and oil (OVX) markets, the main findings indicate that there is a granger causality in general between the equity market and the gold as well as the oil market. During the COVID-19 crisis, a stronger influence of the equity market on the oil market can be observed. Based on symmetric causality tests that are typically employed in the literature, this cannot be observed for the gold market. However, once we control for asymmetric causal interactions, we find that positive shocks in VIX cause positive shocks in GVZ. Hence, the typical flight to safety effect, similar to the one observed during other (financial) crises can also be identified for the COVID-19 crisis. The causality between the equity and oil market is triggered by political factors as well as the economic impact of the crisis which induces a sharp drop in demand for oil.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/pathology , Commerce/economics , Investments/economics , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification
15.
PLoS One ; 16(5): e0251728, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1238766

ABSTRACT

Under conditions of the rapidly developing e-commerce sector especially during pandemic, ensuring high quality of courier service is essential both for clients, as well as courier companies. However, the literature lacks research linking the perspective of clients and organization in the context of courier service quality. The study aims to identify the factors determining courier service quality, their functions and interrelationships in business-to-customer (B2C) e-commerce. The main effect of research is the relational model, which is an original and complex approach to courier service quality considering the multi-stakeholder perspective of an online shop, a courier company and an e-customer. Apart from scientific contribution, the model can be used into managerial practice to formulate the recommendations for e-commerce and courier service sector. The research process involved using the quantitative method (electronic surveys conducted among e-shops and e-clients) and the qualitative method (in-depth-interviews carried out among courier enterprises). Finally, based on the empirical research results, the structural analysis was used to develop the model. As a result, the following groups of factors were distinguished that determine the quality of courier services: crucial, determinant, result, autonomous and external factors.


Subject(s)
Commerce/statistics & numerical data , Consumer Behavior/statistics & numerical data , Internet/organization & administration , Quality Improvement , Commerce/economics , Commerce/organization & administration , Humans , Internet/economics , Internet/statistics & numerical data , Qualitative Research , Surveys and Questionnaires/statistics & numerical data
16.
PLoS One ; 16(5): e0250938, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1236585

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic seems to be the most important phenomenon observed from March 2020 in virtually all countries of the world. The necessity to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and keep health care systems efficient resulted in the forced, drastic limitation of economic activity. Many service sectors were hit particularly hard with this but industry and agriculture were also affected. In particular, the pandemic substantially influenced financial markets and we can observe that some markets or instruments vary in stability since they have been affected in the different degree. In the paper, we present the problem of stability of stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the low number of works related to CEE countries during the pandemic, we analyze the Warsaw Stock Exchange, which is one of the most important markets in the CEE. Our main goal was to find how various industries represented by stock market indices have reacted to the COVID-19 shock and consequently which sectors turned out to keep stability and remained resistant to the pandemic. In our investigation, we use two clustering methods: the K-means and the Ward techniques with the criterion of maximizing the silhouette coefficient and six indicators describing stability in terms of profitability, volume, overbought/oversold conditions and volatility. The results of the research present that during the pandemic it was possible to identify 5 clusters of sector indices in the short term and 4 in the medium term. We found that the composition of the clusters is quite stable over time and that none of the obtained clusters can be univocally considered the most or the least stable taking into account all the analyzed indicators. However, we showed that the obtained clusters have different stability origins, i.e. they vary from each other in terms of the investigated indicators of stability.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/economics , Commerce/economics , Investments/economics , Pandemics/economics , Humans , Models, Economic
17.
Ann Glob Health ; 87(1): 42, 2021 04 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1225916

ABSTRACT

The Covid-19 pandemic has exposed critical inequities in global healthcare supply chains and the need for these systems to be analyzed and reoriented with an equity lens. Implementation research methodology can guide the use of evidence-based interventions to re-orient health supply chains towards equity and optimize health outcomes. Using this approach, private and public sector entities can adapt their strategies to focus not just on efficiency and cost savings but ensuring that vulnerable populations have access to essential medications, vaccines, and supplies. Findings can inform regulations that address supply chain inequities at the global level, strengthen existing systems to fill structural gaps at the national level, and address contextual challenges at the subnational level. This methodology can help account for historical practices from prior health initiatives, identify contemporary barriers and facilitators for positive change, and have applicability to the Covid-19 pandemic and ongoing vaccine distribution efforts. An implementation research approach is critical in equipping health supply chains with a path for more resilient and equitable distribution of necessary supplies, vaccines, and delivery of care.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Equipment and Supplies/supply & distribution , Health Equity , Implementation Science , Manufacturing and Industrial Facilities/supply & distribution , COVID-19/economics , Commerce/economics , Equipment and Supplies/economics , Humans , Manufacturing and Industrial Facilities/economics , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Vulnerable Populations
19.
PLoS One ; 16(4): e0249852, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1190167

ABSTRACT

This paper employs the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) model to estimate the nonlinear relationship between the money market rate and stock market liquidity in China from a multifractal perspective, leading to a better understanding of the complexity in the relationship between the interest rate and stock market liquidity. The empirical results show that the cross-correlations between the money market rate and stock market liquidity present antipersistence in the long run and that they tend to be positively persistent in the short run. The negative cross-correlations between the interest rate and stock market liquidity are more significant than the positive cross-correlations. Furthermore, the cross-correlations between the money market rate and stock market liquidity display multifractal characteristics, explaining the variations in the relationship between the interest rate and stock market liquidity at different time scales. In addition, the lower degree of multifractality in the cross-correlations between the money market rate and stock market liquidity confirms that it is effective for the interest rate to control stock market liquidity. The Chinese stock market liquidity is more sensitive to fluctuations in the money market rate in the short term and is inelastic in response to the money market rate in the long term. In particular, the positive cross-correlations between the money market rate and stock market liquidity in the short run become strong in periods of crises and emergencies. All the evidence proves that the interest rate policy is an emergency response rather than an effective response to mounting concerns regarding the economic impact of unexpected exogenous emergencies and that the interest rate cut policy will not be as effective as expected.


Subject(s)
Commerce/economics , Financial Management/economics , Models, Economic , China , Nonlinear Dynamics
20.
PLoS One ; 16(4): e0248818, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1183652

ABSTRACT

The implementation of large-scale containment measures by governments to contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus has resulted in large impacts to the global economy. Here, we derive a new high-frequency indicator of economic activity using empirical vessel tracking data, and use it to estimate the global maritime trade losses during the first eight months of the pandemic. We go on to use this high-frequency dataset to infer the effect of individual non-pharmaceutical interventions on maritime exports, which we use as a proxy of economic activity. Our results show widespread port-level trade losses, with the largest absolute losses found for ports in China, the Middle-East and Western Europe, associated with the collapse of specific supply-chains (e.g. oil, vehicle manufacturing). In total, we estimate that global maritime trade reduced by -7.0% to -9.6% during the first eight months of 2020, which is equal to around 206-286 million tonnes in volume losses and up to 225-412 billion USD in value losses. We find large sectoral and geographical disparities in impacts. Manufacturing sectors are hit hardest, with losses up to 11.8%, whilst some small islands developing states and low-income economies suffered the largest relative trade losses. Moreover, we find a clear negative impact of COVID-19 related school and public transport closures on country-wide exports. Overall, we show how real-time indicators of economic activity can inform policy-makers about the impacts of individual policies on the economy, and can support economic recovery efforts by allocating funds to the hardest hit economies and sectors.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/economics , Commerce/economics , Quarantine/economics , COVID-19/epidemiology , China/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control/economics , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Economics , Europe/epidemiology , Government , Humans , Middle East/epidemiology , Pandemics/economics , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Ships/economics
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