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2.
Rev. Asoc. Odontol. Argent ; 108(2): 88-94, mayo-ago. 2020. tab
Article in Spanish | LILACS (Americas) | ID: covidwho-864469

ABSTRACT

La pandemia de enfermedad por coronavirus de 2019 (Covid-19) se ha convertido en un importante desafío de salud pública para todos los países. Las medidas de control de infecciones son necesarias para disminuir la circulación del virus y evitar que se siga propagando mundialmente. Debido a las características de los entornos odontológicos, el riesgo de infección cruzada entre los pacientes y los odontólogos es alto. Es por esto que se requieren protocolos de control de infecciones estrictos y efectivos. Elaborar estrategias de gestión del riesgo en salud en odontología permitirá brindar un entorno de seguridad para el paciente, el profesional y su equipo (AU)


The Covid-19 pandemic has become a major public health challenge all over the world. Infection control measures are necessary to prevent the virus from spreading further and to help to control the situation worldwide. Due to the characteristics of the dental environment, the risk of cross infection is high between patients and dentists. It is important to develop strict infection control protocols to provide a safety environment for the patient and the dental staff (AU)


Subject(s)
Humans , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Infection Control, Dental/methods , Dental Staff , Pandemics , Patient Safety , Risk Management , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Clinical Protocols , Dental Offices/standards
4.
Rev Fac Cien Med Univ Nac Cordoba ; 77(3): 168-175, 2020 08 21.
Article in Spanish | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-819574

ABSTRACT

Introduction: In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO published considerations regarding people with disabilities. The aim of this work was to know if these considerations can be fulfilled and if there are differences in their fulfillment between age groups. Method: Descriptive study aimed at people with disabilities in Argentina. A survey was conducted about the four WHO recommendations for this population in online mode, between the 28th and 39th days of preventive and compulsory social isolation. Statistical analysis was according to the nature of the variables, X2 with Fisher's correction was used to determine the differences between groups. Results: 309 surveys were collected from 18 provinces of Argentina. 230(74.4%[69.1-79.1]) were answered by caregivers and 79(25.5%[20.7-30.7]) by people with disabilities. Persons with disabilities were 138(44.7%[39.0-50.4]) children and adolescents and 171(55.3%[49.5-60.9]) adults and older adults. People with disabilities were able to comply with the WHO recommendations regarding reducing exposure to COVID-19 and to be prepared in case of contracting it. There were difficulties in the number of caregivers needed, since 266(66.6%[61.0-71.8]) have this possibility, and difficulties in 55(32.1%[25.1-39.6]) adults and older adults that do not carry out educational-therapeutic activities. There are feelings of anxiety, distress, or depression in people with disabilities and their caregivers. Conclusion: In Argentina, it is possible to comply with the WHO recommendations to avoid exposure to the virus and to be prepared in case of infection. Challenges remain to be solved in terms of accompanying people with disabilities in their physical and mental health.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Disabled Persons , Patient Compliance , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Argentina/epidemiology , Betacoronavirus , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Social Isolation , World Health Organization
5.
BMC Med ; 18(1): 316, 2020 10 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-813962

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Many low- and middle-income countries have implemented control measures against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, it is not clear to what extent these measures explain the low numbers of recorded COVID-19 cases and deaths in Africa. One of the main aims of control measures is to reduce respiratory pathogen transmission through direct contact with others. In this study, we collect contact data from residents of informal settlements around Nairobi, Kenya, to assess if control measures have changed contact patterns, and estimate the impact of changes on the basic reproduction number (R0). METHODS: We conducted a social contact survey with 213 residents of five informal settlements around Nairobi in early May 2020, 4 weeks after the Kenyan government introduced enhanced physical distancing measures and a curfew between 7 pm and 5 am. Respondents were asked to report all direct physical and non-physical contacts made the previous day, alongside a questionnaire asking about the social and economic impact of COVID-19 and control measures. We examined contact patterns by demographic factors, including socioeconomic status. We described the impact of COVID-19 and control measures on income and food security. We compared contact patterns during control measures to patterns from non-pandemic periods to estimate the change in R0. RESULTS: We estimate that control measures reduced physical contacts by 62% and non-physical contacts by either 63% or 67%, depending on the pre-COVID-19 comparison matrix used. Masks were worn by at least one person in 92% of contacts. Respondents in the poorest socioeconomic quintile reported 1.5 times more contacts than those in the richest. Eighty-six percent of respondents reported a total or partial loss of income due to COVID-19, and 74% reported eating less or skipping meals due to having too little money for food. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 control measures have had a large impact on direct contacts and therefore transmission, but have also caused considerable economic and food insecurity. Reductions in R0 are consistent with the comparatively low epidemic growth in Kenya and other sub-Saharan African countries that implemented similar, early control measures. However, negative and inequitable impacts on economic and food security may mean control measures are not sustainable in the longer term.


Subject(s)
Communicable Disease Control , Coronavirus Infections , Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control , Interpersonal Relations , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral , Adult , Betacoronavirus , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Communicable Disease Control/organization & administration , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Coronavirus Infections/economics , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Female , Humans , Kenya/epidemiology , Male , Outcome Assessment, Health Care , Pandemics/economics , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/economics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Poverty/statistics & numerical data , Social Isolation , Socioeconomic Factors , Surveys and Questionnaires
6.
BMJ Open ; 10(10): e038390, 2020 10 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-810675

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: In order to avoid unnecessary hospital admission and associated complications, there is an urgent need to improve the early detection of infection in nursing home residents. Monitoring signs and symptoms with checklists or aids called decision support tools may help nursing home staff to detect infection in residents, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic.We plan to conduct a survey exploring views and experiences of how infections are detected and managed in practice by nurses, care workers and managers in nursing homes in England and Sweden. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: An international cross-sectional descriptive survey, using a pretested questionnaire, will be used to explore nurses, care workers and managers views and experiences of how infections are detected and managed in practice in nursing homes. Data will be analysed descriptively and univariate associations between personal and organisational factors explored. This will help identify important factors related to awareness, knowledge, attitudes, belief and skills likely to affect future implementation of a decision support tool for the early detection of infection in nursing home residents. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved using the self-certification process at the University of Surrey and Linköping University ethics committee (Approval 2018/514-32) in 2018. Study findings will be disseminated through community/stakeholder/service user engagement events in each country, publication in academic peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations. A LAY summary will be provided to participants who indicate they would like to receive this information.This is the first stage of a plan of work to revise and evaluate the Early Detection of Infection Scale (EDIS) tool and its effect on managing infections and reducing unplanned hospital admissions in nursing home residents. Implementation of the EDIS tool may have important implications for the healthcare economy; this will be explored in cost-benefit analyses as the work progresses.


Subject(s)
Communicable Disease Control , Coronavirus Infections , Medical Overuse/prevention & control , Nursing Homes/statistics & numerical data , Pandemics , Patient Care Management , Pneumonia, Viral , Skilled Nursing Facilities/statistics & numerical data , Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Communicable Disease Control/organization & administration , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Cross-Sectional Studies , England/epidemiology , Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice , Health Personnel/standards , Hospitalization , Humans , Patient Care Management/economics , Patient Care Management/methods , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Practice Management/economics , Research Design , Sweden/epidemiology
7.
PLoS One ; 15(9): e0239554, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-810247

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Without any pharmaceutical intervention and vaccination, the only way to combat Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is to slow down the spread of the disease by adopting non-pharmaceutical public health interventions (PHIs). Patient isolation, lockdown, quarantine, social distancing, changes in health care provision, and mass screening are the most common non-pharmaceutical PHIs to cope with the epidemic. However, there is neither systematic evidence on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical PHIs in controlling the COVID-19 nor on how these interventions work in different contexts. Therefore, in this study we will address two main objectives: 1) to assess the effectiveness of the non-pharmaceutical PHIs in controlling the spread of COVID-19 using a systematic review and meta-analyses; 2) to explore why, how, and for whom these interventions work using a realist review. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This review study has two main phases. In the first phase of this study, we will extract data from two main types of studies including quasi-experimental studies (such as quasi-randomized trials, controlled before-after studies (CBAs) and interrupted time series studies (ITSs)) and observational studies (such as cohort, case-control, and cross-sectional studies), written in the English language. We will explore effectiveness of the non-pharmaceutical PHIs targeted either suppression or mitigation strategies (or a combination of both) in controlling the COVID-19 epidemics in the community level. Effectiveness will be considered as the changes in mortality rate, incidence rate, basic reproduction number rate, morbidity rate, rates of hospitalization, rates of intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalization, and other health outcomes where possible. We will perform random-effects meta-analyses, if possible, using CMA software. In the second phase, we will conduct a realist review to find out how, why, for whom, and in what circumstances the non-pharmaceutical PHIs work. At the realist review, we will identify and explore Context-Mechanism-Outcome configurations to provide a robust explanation on the effectiveness of the interventions in different contexts using Pawson's 5-step realist review template including: "clarify scope; search for evidence; appraise primary studies and extract data; synthesize evidence and draw conclusions; and disseminate, implement and evaluate". Although the steps are presented in a linear manner, in practice, we will follow them in iterative stages to fill any potential overlap. DISCUSSION: The findings of this research will provide a crucial insight into how and in which context the non-pharmaceutical PHIs work in controlling the spread of COVID-19. Conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis in line with a realist review will allow us to draw a robust conclusion on the effects and the way in which the interventions work. Understanding the role of contextual factors in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical PHIs and the mechanism of this process could enable policymakers to implement appropriate policies and manage the COVID-19 epidemics more efficiently. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: CRD42020186855.


Subject(s)
Communicable Disease Control/methods , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Basic Reproduction Number , Betacoronavirus , Controlled Before-After Studies , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Interrupted Time Series Analysis , Meta-Analysis as Topic , Non-Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic , Observational Studies as Topic , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Research Design , Systematic Reviews as Topic
10.
Rev Fac Cien Med Univ Nac Cordoba ; 77(3): 168-175, 2020 08 21.
Article in Spanish | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-809516

ABSTRACT

Introduction: In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO published considerations regarding people with disabilities. The aim of this work was to know if these considerations can be fulfilled and if there are differences in their fulfillment between age groups. Method: Descriptive study aimed at people with disabilities in Argentina. A survey was conducted about the four WHO recommendations for this population in online mode, between the 28th and 39th days of preventive and compulsory social isolation. Statistical analysis was according to the nature of the variables, X2 with Fisher's correction was used to determine the differences between groups. Results: 309 surveys were collected from 18 provinces of Argentina. 230(74.4%[69.1-79.1]) were answered by caregivers and 79(25.5%[20.7-30.7]) by people with disabilities. Persons with disabilities were 138(44.7%[39.0-50.4]) children and adolescents and 171(55.3%[49.5-60.9]) adults and older adults. People with disabilities were able to comply with the WHO recommendations regarding reducing exposure to COVID-19 and to be prepared in case of contracting it. There were difficulties in the number of caregivers needed, since 266(66.6%[61.0-71.8]) have this possibility, and difficulties in 55(32.1%[25.1-39.6]) adults and older adults that do not carry out educational-therapeutic activities. There are feelings of anxiety, distress, or depression in people with disabilities and their caregivers. Conclusion: In Argentina, it is possible to comply with the WHO recommendations to avoid exposure to the virus and to be prepared in case of infection. Challenges remain to be solved in terms of accompanying people with disabilities in their physical and mental health.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Disabled Persons , Patient Compliance , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Argentina/epidemiology , Betacoronavirus , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Social Isolation , World Health Organization
11.
BMJ Open ; 10(9): e039749, 2020 09 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-808388

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: The growth of COVID-19 infections in England raises questions about system vulnerability. Several factors that vary across geographies, such as age, existing disease prevalence, medical resource availability and deprivation, can trigger adverse effects on the National Health System during a pandemic. In this paper, we present data on these factors and combine them to create an index to show which areas are more exposed. This technique can help policy makers to moderate the impact of similar pandemics. DESIGN: We combine several sources of data, which describe specific risk factors linked with the outbreak of a respiratory pathogen, that could leave local areas vulnerable to the harmful consequences of large-scale outbreaks of contagious diseases. We combine these measures to generate an index of community-level vulnerability. SETTING: 91 Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) in England. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We merge 15 measures spatially to generate an index of community-level vulnerability. These measures cover prevalence rates of high-risk diseases; proxies for the at-risk population density; availability of staff and quality of healthcare facilities. RESULTS: We find that 80% of CCGs that score in the highest quartile of vulnerability are located in the North of England (24 out of 30). Here, vulnerability stems from a faster rate of population ageing and from the widespread presence of underlying at-risk diseases. These same areas, especially the North-East Coast areas of Lancashire, also appear vulnerable to adverse shocks to healthcare supply due to tighter labour markets for healthcare personnel. Importantly, our index correlates with a measure of social deprivation, indicating that these communities suffer from long-standing lack of economic opportunities and are characterised by low public and private resource endowments. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence-based policy is crucial to mitigate the health impact of pandemics such as COVID-19. While current attention focuses on curbing rates of contagion, we introduce a vulnerability index combining data that can help policy makers identify the most vulnerable communities. We find that this index is positively correlated with COVID-19 deaths and it can thus be used to guide targeted capacity building. These results suggest that a stronger focus on deprived and vulnerable communities is needed to tackle future threats from emerging and re-emerging infectious disease.


Subject(s)
Communicable Disease Control , Coronavirus Infections , Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control , Health Resources/supply & distribution , Health Services Accessibility/standards , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral , Betacoronavirus , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Communicable Disease Control/organization & administration , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , England/epidemiology , Health Status Disparities , Humans , Needs Assessment , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Prevalence , Public Health/methods , Public Health/trends , Quality Improvement/organization & administration , Risk Factors , Spatial Analysis
12.
BMJ Open ; 10(9): e042867, 2020 09 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-807755

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To determine any change in referral patterns and outcomes in children (0-18) referred for child protection medical examination (CPME) during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with previous years. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study, analysing routinely collected clinical data from CPME reports in a rapid response to the pandemic lockdown. SETTING: Birmingham Community Healthcare NHS Trust, which provides all routine CPME for Birmingham, England, population 1.1 million including 288 000 children. PARTICIPANTS: Children aged under 18 years attending CPME during an 18-week period from late February to late June during the years 2018-2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Numbers of referrals, source of disclosure and outcomes from CPME. RESULTS: There were 78 CPME referrals in 2018, 75 in 2019 and 47 in 2020, this was a 39.7% (95% CI 12.4% to 59.0%) reduction in referrals from 2018 to 2020, and a 37.3% (95% CI 8.6% to 57.4%) reduction from 2019 to 2020. There were fewer CPME referrals initiated by school staff in 2020, 12 (26%) compared with 36 (47%) and 38 (52%) in 2018 and 2019, respectively. In all years 75.9% of children were known to social care prior to CPME, and 94% of CPME concluded that there were significant safeguarding concerns. CONCLUSIONS: School closure due to COVID-19 may have harmed children as child abuse has remained hidden. There needs to be either mandatory attendance at schools in future or viable alternatives found. There may be a significant increase in safeguarding referrals when schools fully reopen as children disclose the abuse they have experienced at home.


Subject(s)
Child Abuse , Child Protective Services , Child Welfare , Communicable Disease Control , Coronavirus Infections , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral , School Health Services/statistics & numerical data , Betacoronavirus , Child , Child Abuse/prevention & control , Child Abuse/psychology , Child Abuse/statistics & numerical data , Child Protective Services/methods , Child Protective Services/statistics & numerical data , Child Welfare/statistics & numerical data , Child Welfare/trends , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Coronavirus Infections/psychology , Female , Humans , Male , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/psychology , Population , Social Isolation , Social Work/methods , Social Work/statistics & numerical data , United Kingdom/epidemiology
14.
Ann Glob Health ; 86(1): 119, 2020 09 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-800949

ABSTRACT

Background: Disease control involves multiple actions overtime to halt the spread of COVID-19. The role of a country's governance in slowing the spread of COVID-19 has not yet been well investigated. Objective: This study aims to investigate the association between governance and the trend of COVID-19 incidence in countries with the highest prevalence. We hypothesized that countries with better governance are more likely to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 than countries with worse governance. Methods: We analyzed 62 most prevalent countries with at least 10,000 accumulative confirmed cases from January 22 to June 15, 2020. Countries were further grouped into three different levels of governance (25 better governance, 24 fair governance, and 13 worse governance), identified outbreak and mitigation periods using the joinpoint regression model, and compared the number of days and average daily percent change in incidence in two periods by governance level using the one-way analysis of variance. Findings: The average outbreak period in the 62 countries lasted 84.0 days. Sixty percent of countries (N = 37) had experienced outbreak periods, followed by a mitigation period. In contrast, the rest forty percent of countries (N = 25) still had a rising trend. In the outbreak period, better governance countries had a more rapid increase but a shorter outbreak period (71.2 days) than countries with fair (93.5 days) and worse (90.8 days) governance. Most countries with better governance (84.0%) revealed a declining trend in COVID-19 incidence, while such a trend was less than half of fair and worse governance countries (38.5%-41.7%). Conclusions: Countries with better governance are more resilient during the COVID-19 crisis. While the mitigation of COVID-19 is observed in most better governance countries, the incidence of COVID-19 is still surging in most fair and worse governance countries, and the possibility of a recurring epidemic of COVID-19 in countries cannot be ignored.


Subject(s)
Change Management , Communicable Disease Control , Coronavirus Infections , Disease Transmission, Infectious , Global Health/statistics & numerical data , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral , Analysis of Variance , Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , Civil Defense/methods , Civil Defense/organization & administration , Communicable Disease Control/legislation & jurisprudence , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Communicable Disease Control/organization & administration , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control , Disease Transmission, Infectious/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Incidence , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Prevalence , Resilience, Psychological , Social Control, Formal
15.
Sci Rep ; 10(1): 15828, 2020 09 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-800839

ABSTRACT

One of the biggest threats to humanity are pandemics. In our global society they can rage around the world with an immense toll in terms of human, economic and social impact. Forecasting the spreading of a pandemic is, therefore, paramount in helping governments to enforce a number of social and economic measures, apt at curbing the pandemic and dealing with its aftermath. We demonstrate that the epidemic renormalisation group approach to pandemics provides an effective and simple way to investigate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different regions of the world. The framework also allows for reliable projections on the impact of travel limitations and social distancing measures on global epidemic spread. We test and calibrate it on reported COVID-19 cases while unveiling the mechanism that governs the delay in the relative peaks of newly infected cases among different regions of the globe. We discover that social distancing measures are more effective than travel limitations across borders in delaying the epidemic peak. We further provide the link to compartmental models such as the time-honoured SIR-like models. We also show how to generalise the framework to account for the interactions across several regions of the world, replacing or complementing large scale simulations.


Subject(s)
Communicable Disease Control/methods , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Emigration and Immigration/statistics & numerical data , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Social Distance , Betacoronavirus , Europe/epidemiology , Humans , Travel , United States/epidemiology
16.
Epidemiol Infect ; 148: e201, 2020 09 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-798373

ABSTRACT

While most research focuses on the clinical treatment of COVID-19, fewer studies have investigated individuals' responses towards this novel infectious disease. This study aims to report the temporal changes in individuals' psychological wellbeing, perceived discrimination, sociopolitical perceptions and information-seeking behaviours among the general public in Hubei, China. Data were obtained from a two-wave survey of 1902 respondents aged 18-80 in Hubei province during the peak and mitigation stages of the outbreak. The results showed that the prevalence of psychological distress dropped from over 75% to around 15% throughout the study period, but perceived discrimination remained stable. Female, middle-aged, well-educated respondents and those employed in government/public institutions/state-owned enterprises tended to report more distress. While respondents' attention on COVID-19 information kept high and stable, their sources of information diversified across different sociodemographic groups. Over time, people obtained more social support from neighbourhoods than from their friends and relatives or non-government organisations. Over 80% of respondents were satisfied with the performance of the central government, which was notably higher than their ratings on the local government and neighbourhood/village committees. The findings of this research are informative for formulating effective intervention strategies to tackle various psychosocial problems during COVID-19.


Subject(s)
Attitude , Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/psychology , Information Seeking Behavior , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/psychology , Adult , China/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Data Collection , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Social Support , Young Adult
17.
PLoS One ; 15(9): e0238684, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-792303

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In the Republic of Korea (ROK), social distancing and public behavior changes mitigated COVID-19 spread. However, a second wave of the epidemic is expected in the fall if neither vaccine nor antiviral drugs become available. This study investigated the impact of non-pharmaceutical measures on short- and long-term outbreak dynamics. METHODS: A mathematical model based on Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model is developed considering isolated and behavior-changed groups. Using the least-squares fitting method, transmission and behavior change rates were estimated using cases reported from February 16 to April 20, 2020. FINDINGS: The estimated transmission rate of COVID-19 was 4·6180 and behavior change rate was 2·6044. The model predicted the number of new cases to continuously decrease, with less than one case expected after May 6, 2020. Concurrently, a 25% reduction in behavioral changes during the outbreak would increase the case count by 60,000, resulting in 4,000 cases at maximum, exceeding the medical system's capacity. As behavioral restrictions are eased, local transmission will likely increase, with forecasted second wave peak in October 2020. INTERPRETATION: Social distancing and public behavior changes have curbed the spread of COVID-19 in the ROK. Mathematical modeling demonstrates the importance of these measures in reducing and delaying outbreaks. Nevertheless, non-pharmaceutical interventions cannot eliminate the disease. In the future, vaccines and antiviral treatments combined with social distancing and public behavior changes will be paramount to ending COVID-19 epidemic.


Subject(s)
Communicable Disease Control/methods , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Health Behavior , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Social Isolation , Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Forecasting , Humans , Models, Theoretical , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Republic of Korea/epidemiology
18.
PLoS One ; 15(9): e0239693, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-792192

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To examine perceptions, behaviors, and impacts surrounding COVID-19 early in the pandemic response. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of 1,030 U.S. adults was administered on March 31st, 2020. This survey examined attitudes toward media, government, and community responses to COVID-19 by political ideology and sociodemographic factors. Knowledge, anxieties, and impacts of COVID-19 were also assessed. RESULTS: Conservatives were more likely to report that COVID-19 was receiving too much media coverage and people were generally overreacting; liberals were more likely to report the government had not done enough in response to the pandemic. Females and those with lower income experienced more COVID-19 related economic anxieties. Those working and with children at home reported higher social, home, and work disruption. Social distancing behaviors were more common among liberals and were associated with increases in depressive symptoms. General knowledge about COVID-19 was widely exhibited across the sample, however, Black and Hispanic respondents were less likely to correctly answer questions about the availability of a vaccine and modes of transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Public health experts should consider the political climate in crafting messaging that appeals to the values of those across the political spectrum. Research on the COVID-19 pandemic should continue to monitor the effects of social distancing on mental health and among vulnerable populations.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/psychology , Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice , Pneumonia, Viral/psychology , Politics , Public Opinion , Social Isolation , Adult , Aged , Anxiety , Betacoronavirus , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Cross-Sectional Studies , Depression , Female , Humans , Internet , Male , Mass Media , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Surveys and Questionnaires , United States
19.
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop ; 53: e20200469, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-788938

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Monitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists. METHODS: We used segmented (joinpoint) regression analysis to describe the behavior of COVID-19 infections in Brazilian capital cities. RESULTS: All capitals showed an exponential or a near-exponential increase in cases through May. A decline in reported cases was subsequently noted in 20 cities but was only significant for 8 (29.6%) and was followed in two by a renewed increase. CONCLUSIONS: Caution is warranted when considering the relaxation of restrictions.


Subject(s)
Communicable Disease Control/methods , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Social Isolation , Betacoronavirus , Brazil , Humans
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