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8.
Acta Med Acad ; 49(3): 278-280, 2020 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1154750

ABSTRACT

Norovirus is a substantial burden on the U.S. We compared norovirus outbreaks before and during COVID-19. There were fewer norovirus outbreaks during COVID-19 compared to a similar time period in 2019 (326 versus 638, P<0.001). CONCLUSION: COVID-19 public health interventions may be considered to decrease the burden of norovirus. This demonstrates the ability of more restrictive interventions to decrease other outbreaks of known or emerging viruses.


Subject(s)
Caliciviridae Infections , Communicable Disease Control , Norovirus/isolation & purification , /epidemiology , Caliciviridae Infections/diagnosis , Caliciviridae Infections/epidemiology , Caliciviridae Infections/prevention & control , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Communicable Disease Control/organization & administration , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control , Humans , Public Health/methods , Public Health/statistics & numerical data , United States/epidemiology
9.
Int Wound J ; 18(2): 129-130, 2021 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1153514
10.
J Infect Dev Ctries ; 15(2): 204-208, 2021 03 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1150799

ABSTRACT

The steadily growing COVID-19 pandemic is challenging health systems worldwide including Sudan. In Sudan, the first COVID-19 case was reported on 13th March 2020, and up to 11 November 2020 there were 14,401 confirmed cases of which 9,535 cases recovered and the rest 3,750 cases were under treatment. Additionally, 1,116 deaths were reported, indicating a relatively high case fatality rate of 7.7%. Several preventive and control measures were implemented by the government of Sudan and health partners, including the partial lockdown of the country, promoting social distancing, and suspending mass gathering such as festivals and performing religious practices in groups. However, new cases still emerging every day and this could be attributed to the noncompliance of the individuals to the advocated preventive measurements.


Subject(s)
/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Africa/epidemiology , /prevention & control , Communicable Disease Control/organization & administration , Humans , Mass Media , Mortality , Socioeconomic Factors , Sudan/epidemiology
11.
BMJ Glob Health ; 6(3)2021 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1150225

ABSTRACT

Early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office recognised the importance of epidemiological modelling to forecast the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic to support decisions guiding the implementation of response measures. We established a modelling support team to facilitate the application of epidemiological modelling analyses in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries. Here, we present an innovative, stepwise approach to participatory modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic that engaged decision-makers and public health professionals from countries throughout all stages of the modelling process. Our approach consisted of first identifying the relevant policy questions, collecting country-specific data and interpreting model findings from a decision-maker's perspective, as well as communicating model uncertainty. We used a simple modelling methodology that was adaptable to the shortage of epidemiological data, and the limited modelling capacity, in our region. We discuss the benefits of using models to produce rapid decision-making guidance for COVID-19 control in the WHO EMR, as well as challenges that we have experienced regarding conveying uncertainty associated with model results, synthesising and comparing results across multiple modelling approaches, and modelling fragile and conflict-affected states.


Subject(s)
/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control/organization & administration , Decision Making , Epidemiologic Methods , Public Health , Humans , Mediterranean Region/epidemiology , Pandemics
13.
Scand J Trauma Resusc Emerg Med ; 29(1): 51, 2021 Mar 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1146699

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence suggests that the reallocation of health care resources during the COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacts health care system. This study describes the epidemiology and the outcome of major trauma patients admitted to centers in France during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak. METHODS: This retrospective observational study included all consecutive trauma patients aged 15 years and older admitted into 15 centers contributing to the TraumaBase® registry during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in France. This COVID-19 trauma cohort was compared to historical cohorts (2017-2019). RESULTS: Over a 4 years-study period, 5762 patients were admitted between the first week of February and mid-June. This cohort was split between patients admitted during the first 2020 pandemic wave in France (pandemic period, 1314 patients) and those admitted during the corresponding period in the three previous years (2017-2019, 4448 patients). Trauma patient demographics changed substantially during the pandemic especially during the lockdown period, with an observed reduction in both the absolute numbers and proportion exposed to road traffic accidents and subsequently admitted to traumacenters (348 annually 2017-2019 [55.4% of trauma admissions] vs 143 [36.8%] in 2020 p < 0.005). The in-hospital observed mortality and predicted mortality during the pandemic period were not different compared to the non-pandemic years. CONCLUSIONS: During this first wave of COVID-19 in France, and more specifically during lockdown there was a significant reduction of patients admitted to designated trauma centers. Despite the reallocation and reorganization of medical resources this reduction prevented the saturation of the trauma rescue chain and has allowed maintaining a high quality of care for trauma patients.


Subject(s)
/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control/organization & administration , Delivery of Health Care/methods , Disease Management , Pandemics/prevention & control , Registries , Trauma Centers/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Female , France/epidemiology , Hospitalization/trends , Humans , Male , Retrospective Studies
15.
Nat Med ; 27(3): 396-400, 2021 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1135689

ABSTRACT

Fourteen months into the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, we identify key lessons in the global and national responses to the pandemic. The World Health Organization has played a pivotal technical, normative and coordinating role, but has been constrained by its lack of authority over sovereign member states. Many governments also mistakenly attempted to manage COVID-19 like influenza, resulting in repeated lockdowns, high excess morbidity and mortality, and poor economic recovery. Despite the incredible speed of the development and approval of effective and safe vaccines, the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants means that all countries will have to rely on a globally coordinated public health effort for several years to defeat this pandemic.


Subject(s)
/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control , Global Health , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Communicable Disease Control/organization & administration , Communicable Disease Control/trends , Global Health/history , Global Health/trends , Government , History, 21st Century , Humans , Pandemics/history , Public Health/history , Public Health/methods , Public Health/trends , Public Health Administration/methods , Public Health Administration/standards , Public Health Administration/trends , /physiology
18.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 100(5): e23925, 2021 Feb 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1125827

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT: The World Health Organization (WHO) classified the spread of COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) as a global pandemic in March. Scholars predict that the pandemic will continue into the coming winter and will become a seasonal epidemic in the following year. Therefore, the identification of effective control measures becomes extremely important. Although many reports have been published since the COVID-19 outbreak, no studies have identified the relative effectiveness of a combination of control measures implemented in Wuhan and other areas in China. To this end, a retrospective analysis by the collection and modeling of an unprecedented number of epidemiology records in China of the early stage of the outbreaks can be valuable.In this study, we developed a new dynamic model to describe the spread of COVID-19 and to quantify the effectiveness of control measures. The transmission rate, daily close contacts, and the average time from onset to isolation were identified as crucial factors in viral spreading. Moreover, the capacity of a local health-care system is identified as a threshold to control an outbreak in its early stage. We took these factors as controlling parameters in our model. The parameters are estimated based on epidemiological reports from national and local Center for Disease Control (CDCs).A retrospective simulation showed the effectiveness of combinations of 4 major control measures implemented in Wuhan: hospital isolation, social distancing, self-protection by wearing masks, and extensive medical testing. Further analysis indicated critical intervention conditions and times required to control an outbreak in the early stage. Our simulations showed that South Korea has kept the spread of COVID-19 at a low level through extensive medical testing. Furthermore, a predictive simulation for Italy indicated that Italy would contain the outbreak in late May under strict social distancing.In our general analysis, no single measure could contain a COVID-19 outbreak once a health-care system is overloaded. Extensive medical testing could keep viral spreading at a low level. Wearing masks functions as favorably as social distancing but with much lower socioeconomic costs.


Subject(s)
Communicable Disease Control , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Outcome Assessment, Health Care/methods , /isolation & purification , /economics , /prevention & control , China/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Communicable Disease Control/organization & administration , Communicable Disease Control/standards , Contact Tracing/statistics & numerical data , Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control , Disease Transmission, Infectious/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Models, Theoretical , Mortality , Systems Analysis , Time-to-Treatment/statistics & numerical data
19.
Respirology ; 26(4): 322-333, 2021 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1124645

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 has hit the world by surprise, causing substantial mortality and morbidity since 2020. This narrative review aims to provide an overview of the epidemiology, induced impact, viral kinetics and clinical spectrum of COVID-19 in the Asia-Pacific Region, focusing on regions previously exposed to outbreaks of coronavirus. COVID-19 progressed differently by regions, with some (such as China and Taiwan) featured by one to two epidemic waves and some (such as Hong Kong and South Korea) featured by multiple waves. There has been no consensus on the estimates of important epidemiological time intervals or proportions, such that using them for making inferences should be done with caution. Viral loads of patients with COVID-19 peak in the first week of illness around days 2 to 4 and hence there is very high transmission potential causing community outbreaks. Various strategies such as government-guided and suppress-and-lift strategies, trigger-based/suppression approaches and alert systems have been employed to guide the adoption and easing of control measures. Asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission is a hallmark of COVID-19. Identification and isolation of symptomatic patients alone is not effective in controlling the ongoing outbreaks. However, early, prompt and coordinated enactment predisposed regions to successful disease containment. Mass COVID-19 vaccinations are likely to be the light at the end of the tunnel. There is a need to review what we have learnt in this pandemic and examine how to transfer and improve existing knowledge for ongoing and future epidemics.


Subject(s)
Communicable Disease Control , Asia/epidemiology , Australasia/epidemiology , /physiopathology , /virology , Civil Defense/organization & administration , Communicable Disease Control/legislation & jurisprudence , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Communicable Disease Control/organization & administration , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Government Regulation , Humans , International Cooperation , /physiology
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