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1.
Crit Care Med ; 49(12): 2033-2041, 2021 12 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1522364

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To characterize the impact of public health interventions on the volume and characteristics of admissions to the PICU. DESIGN: Multicenter retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Six U.S. referral PICUs during February 15, 2020-May 14, 2020, compared with the same months during 2017-2019 (baseline). PATIENTS: PICU admissions excluding admissions for illnesses due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and readmissions during the same hospitalization. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Primary outcome was admission volumes during the period of stay-at-home orders (March 15, 2020-May 14, 2020) compared with baseline. Secondary outcomes were hospitalization characteristics including advanced support (e.g., invasive mechanical ventilation), PICU and hospital lengths of stay, and mortality. We used generalized linear mixed modeling to compare patient and admission characteristics during the stay-at-home orders period to baseline. We evaluated 7,960 admissions including 1,327 during March 15, 2020-May 14, 2020. Daily admissions and patients days were lower during the period of stay-at-home orders compared with baseline: median admissions 21 (interquartile range, 17-25) versus 36 (interquartile range, 30-42) (p < 0.001) and median patient days 93.0 (interquartile range, 55.9-136.7) versus 143.6 (interquartile range, 108.5-189.2) (p < 0.001). Admissions during the period of stay-at-home orders were less common in young children and for respiratory and infectious illnesses and more common for poisonings, endocrinopathies and for children with race/ethnicity categorized as other/unspecified. There were no differences in hospitalization characteristics except fewer patients received noninvasive ventilation during the period of stay-at-home orders. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in PICU admissions suggest that much of pediatric critical illness in younger children and for respiratory and infectious illnesses may be preventable through targeted public health strategies.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Intensive Care Units, Pediatric/statistics & numerical data , Patient Admission/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Age Factors , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Humans , Infant , Length of Stay , Male , Pandemics , Respiration, Artificial/statistics & numerical data , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Severity of Illness Index , Socioeconomic Factors , Young Adult
2.
PLoS One ; 16(11): e0259376, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1511827

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: People at high risk of severe illness from COVID-19 have experienced greater restrictions during the pandemic, yet there is a paucity of research exploring their lived experience. OBJECTIVES: This study explored the impact of COVID-19 on people identified as at high risk of severe illness by UK Government, and in particular, the impact of the first lockdown on access to healthcare, medications and use of technological platforms. METHODS: 1038 UK adults who identified as at high risk of severe illness from COVID-19 in line with UK Government guidance or self-identified with acute or other chronic health conditions, completed the Awareness, Attitudes and Actions survey which explored the impact of COVID-19 on access to healthcare, management of long-term health condition, mental health, and health behaviours. RESULTS: Most participants reported feelings of vulnerability, anxiety and isolation, noticed that other people changed their behaviour towards them including a feeling of being stigmatised by people not categorised as high risk. Participants described the largely negative impact that the COVID-19 lockdown had on to health-related behaviours and access to healthcare, which had resulted in large declines in mental health and wellbeing. Participants also indicated disappointment at the UK Governments response and handling of the COVID-19 lockdown. IMPLICATIONS: This study provides novel evidence of the lived experience of the first COVID-19 lockdown for people identified as at high risk of severe illness. In the context of behavioural health interventions, the ubiquity of digital technologies and their adoption into day-to-day life translates into greater potential reach than traditional interventions, and consequently, greater potential for positive public health impact. Findings should be considered by policymakers and healthcare professionals to support people now and as we transition through the recovery phase with a particular emphasis on supporting mental health and changes to the management of long-term health conditions.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Mental Health , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Anxiety/psychology , Anxiety/virology , Attitude , COVID-19/psychology , COVID-19/virology , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Delivery of Health Care/statistics & numerical data , Female , Health Personnel , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Risk Factors , Surveys and Questionnaires , United Kingdom/epidemiology
3.
J Biomed Semantics ; 12(1): 13, 2021 07 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1484319

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Effective response to public health emergencies, such as we are now experiencing with COVID-19, requires data sharing across multiple disciplines and data systems. Ontologies offer a powerful data sharing tool, and this holds especially for those ontologies built on the design principles of the Open Biomedical Ontologies Foundry. These principles are exemplified by the Infectious Disease Ontology (IDO), a suite of interoperable ontology modules aiming to provide coverage of all aspects of the infectious disease domain. At its center is IDO Core, a disease- and pathogen-neutral ontology covering just those types of entities and relations that are relevant to infectious diseases generally. IDO Core is extended by disease and pathogen-specific ontology modules. RESULTS: To assist the integration and analysis of COVID-19 data, and viral infectious disease data more generally, we have recently developed three new IDO extensions: IDO Virus (VIDO); the Coronavirus Infectious Disease Ontology (CIDO); and an extension of CIDO focusing on COVID-19 (IDO-COVID-19). Reflecting the fact that viruses lack cellular parts, we have introduced into IDO Core the term acellular structure to cover viruses and other acellular entities studied by virologists. We now distinguish between infectious agents - organisms with an infectious disposition - and infectious structures - acellular structures with an infectious disposition. This in turn has led to various updates and refinements of IDO Core's content. We believe that our work on VIDO, CIDO, and IDO-COVID-19 can serve as a model for yielding greater conformance with ontology building best practices. CONCLUSIONS: IDO provides a simple recipe for building new pathogen-specific ontologies in a way that allows data about novel diseases to be easily compared, along multiple dimensions, with data represented by existing disease ontologies. The IDO strategy, moreover, supports ontology coordination, providing a powerful method of data integration and sharing that allows physicians, researchers, and public health organizations to respond rapidly and efficiently to current and future public health crises.


Subject(s)
Biological Ontologies/statistics & numerical data , COVID-19/prevention & control , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Communicable Diseases/therapy , Computational Biology/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Communicable Diseases/epidemiology , Communicable Diseases/transmission , Computational Biology/methods , Data Mining/methods , Data Mining/statistics & numerical data , Epidemics , Humans , Information Dissemination/methods , Public Health/methods , Public Health/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2/physiology , Semantics
4.
Glob Health Res Policy ; 6(1): 38, 2021 09 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1448493

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has sparked heated debate among scholars on the relevance of lockdowns. There are those in favor of the lockdown and others who are critical of it. However, despite the increased interest in understanding the relevance of lockdowns, there still has not been much focus on its relevance in countries like Zambia. Thus, with the help of the Social Representation Theory (SRT), we set out to explore and document the local characterization of the lockdown by residents of Lusaka, Zambia. METHODS: We recruited our participants through convenient and purposive sampling techniques. This was done through the use of the ZAMTEL public phone records. Initial contact was made to potential participants, and they were asked of their availability and willingness to participate in the interview. Upon agreeing to participate, they were included in the sample. A total of 68 people were selected to take part in this study. Their age ranged from 20 to 76 years old. 33 of them were male and 35 females. After this, we conducted interviews with the 68 participants. Due to COVID-19 restrictions, our interviews were conducted via telephone in conformity with the recommendations from the IRB in Lusaka and the advice of the ministry of health. We anonymized the demographic characteristics and responses from our participants. Later, thematic analysis was used to analyze the data. RESULTS: The lockdown was on one hand lauded for slowing down the incidence rates, preventing fatalities, and protecting the healthcare system from collapse. On the other hand, it was criticized for exacerbating poverty levels, unemployment rates, increasing the rate of mental health problems, aiding gender-based violence, and intensifying political repression and corruption. The results speak to the complexity in the characterization of the lockdown as a response to COVID-19 in Lusaka, Zambia. This observation demonstrates the folly of viewing, applying and characterizing the COVID-19 lockdown as a 'one-size-fits-all' approach in Lusaka, Zambia. CONCLUSION: Rather than establishing the lockdown as an incontestable good, as it is depicted by some scholars or as useless by its critics, our findings instead demonstrate the diversity and complexity in how it is locally viewed by Lusaka residents. The study provides grounds for caution on simplistic and binary characterization of lockdowns. It indicates the need for careful dialog between the designers of lockdowns and citizens in order to tailor such interventions to local realities in context-specific ways. It also shows that though the development of such interventions, all the various and complex elements it embodies must be taken into account in order to realize optimum outcomes.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Patient Acceptance of Health Care/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Aged , COVID-19/psychology , Cities , Communicable Disease Control/instrumentation , Female , Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Patient Acceptance of Health Care/psychology , Young Adult , Zambia
5.
JAMA ; 323(19): 1915-1923, 2020 May 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1441893

ABSTRACT

Importance: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a pandemic, and it is unknown whether a combination of public health interventions can improve control of the outbreak. Objective: To evaluate the association of public health interventions with the epidemiological features of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan by 5 periods according to key events and interventions. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, individual-level data on 32 583 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases reported between December 8, 2019, and March 8, 2020, were extracted from the municipal Notifiable Disease Report System, including patients' age, sex, residential location, occupation, and severity classification. Exposures: Nonpharmaceutical public health interventions including cordons sanitaire, traffic restriction, social distancing, home confinement, centralized quarantine, and universal symptom survey. Main Outcomes and Measures: Rates of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infections (defined as the number of cases per day per million people), across age, sex, and geographic locations were calculated across 5 periods: December 8 to January 9 (no intervention), January 10 to 22 (massive human movement due to the Chinese New Year holiday), January 23 to February 1 (cordons sanitaire, traffic restriction and home quarantine), February 2 to 16 (centralized quarantine and treatment), and February 17 to March 8 (universal symptom survey). The effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 (an indicator of secondary transmission) was also calculated over the periods. Results: Among 32 583 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, the median patient age was 56.7 years (range, 0-103; interquartile range, 43.4-66.8) and 16 817 (51.6%) were women. The daily confirmed case rate peaked in the third period and declined afterward across geographic regions and sex and age groups, except for children and adolescents, whose rate of confirmed cases continued to increase. The daily confirmed case rate over the whole period in local health care workers (130.5 per million people [95% CI, 123.9-137.2]) was higher than that in the general population (41.5 per million people [95% CI, 41.0-41.9]). The proportion of severe and critical cases decreased from 53.1% to 10.3% over the 5 periods. The severity risk increased with age: compared with those aged 20 to 39 years (proportion of severe and critical cases, 12.1%), elderly people (≥80 years) had a higher risk of having severe or critical disease (proportion, 41.3%; risk ratio, 3.61 [95% CI, 3.31-3.95]) while younger people (<20 years) had a lower risk (proportion, 4.1%; risk ratio, 0.47 [95% CI, 0.31-0.70]). The effective reproduction number fluctuated above 3.0 before January 26, decreased to below 1.0 after February 6, and decreased further to less than 0.3 after March 1. Conclusions and Relevance: A series of multifaceted public health interventions was temporally associated with improved control of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China. These findings may inform public health policy in other countries and regions.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , COVID-19 , Child , China/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Disease Outbreaks , Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control , Female , Health Policy , Humans , Incidence , Male , Middle Aged , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Young Adult
7.
J Occup Health ; 63(1): e12273, 2021 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1406069

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: It is unclear how many workplace COVID-19 preventive measures were maintained during repeated outbreaks. The aim of this study was to investigate a longitudinal change of implementation of workplace preventive measures responding to COVID-19 in Japan. METHODS: An online longitudinal study was conducted using a cohort of full-time employees in Japan, starting in March 2020 (T1), with follow-up surveys in May (T2), August (T3), and November (T4) 2020. A repeated measures analysis of variance was performed to compare the difference among the four surveys in the mean number of 23 predetermined items of the measures implemented. RESULTS: The final sample comprised 800 employees. The mean number of the implemented measures increased from T1 to T2, but did not change from T2 to T3, then decreased from T3 to T4. The number of workplace preventive measures significantly increased from T1 to T2 for 21 items (P < .001), and significantly decreased from T3 to T4 for 14 items (P < .001 to P = .005). CONCLUSIONS: While the preventive measures responding to COVID-19 in the workplace were well-implemented during the earlier phase of the outbreak, they seem to have been relaxed after a huge outbreak (T3 to T4: August to November 2020). Workplaces should be encouraged to continue the preventive measures over repeated outbreaks.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Health Plan Implementation/statistics & numerical data , Occupational Diseases/prevention & control , Workplace/statistics & numerical data , Adult , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Disease Outbreaks , Employment/statistics & numerical data , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Japan , Longitudinal Studies , Male , Middle Aged , Occupational Diseases/epidemiology , Occupational Diseases/virology , Occupational Health/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2 , Young Adult
8.
J Infect Dev Ctries ; 15(8): 1107-1116, 2021 08 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1405476

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: National strategies to control COVID-19 pandemic consisted mostly of social distancing measures such as lockdowns, curfews, and stay-home guidelines, personal protection such as hand hygiene and mask wearing, as well as contact tracing, isolation and quarantine. Whilst policy interventions were broadly similar across the globe, there were some differences in individual and community responses. This study explored community responses to COVID-19 containment measures in different countries and synthesized a model. This exaplains the community response to pandemic containment measures in the local context, so as to be suitably prepared for future interventions and research. METHODOLOGY: A mutlinational study was conducted from April-June 2020 involving researchers from 12 countries (Japan, Austria, U.S., Taiwan, India, Sudan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar, Vietnam and Thailand). Steps in this research consisted of carrying out open-ended questionnaires, qualitative analyses in NVivo, and a multinational meeting to reflect, exchange, and validate results. Lastly, a commuinty response model was synthesized from multinational experiences. RESULTS: Effective communication is key in promoting collective action for preventing virus transmission. Health literacy, habits and social norms in different populations are core components of public health interventions. To enable people to stay home while sustaining livelihoods, economic and social support are essential. Countries could benefit from previous pandemic experience in their community response. Whilst contact tracing and isolation are crucial intervention components, issues of privacy and human rights need to be considered. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding community responses to containment policies will help in ending current and future pandemics in the world.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Internationality , Public Health/statistics & numerical data , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Contact Tracing , Health Risk Behaviors , Humans , Public Health/methods , Quarantine
9.
Epidemiol Infect ; 149: e207, 2021 09 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1397816

ABSTRACT

We report the events of an Italian top league soccer club that took place in 1 year (from March 2020 to February 2021) at the time of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In early March 2020, just before sport competitions were called off due to the national lockdown in Italy, the team, which included 27 players and 26 staff at the time, faced a COVID-19 outbreak, with 16 confirmed and seven probable cases, including three staff members who had to be hospitalised. In May 2020, at the resumption of the training sessions, a high prevalence of anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immunoglobulin G positivity (35/53, 66%) was detected among the members of the group. In the following months, sport activities were organised behind closed doors with stringent risk mitigation procedures in place. As of February 2021, only two new cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were detected within the group, against more than 3500 nasopharyngeal swabs and 1000 serological tests.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Disease Outbreaks/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Soccer/statistics & numerical data , Adult , COVID-19/virology , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged
10.
JAMA Netw Open ; 4(9): e2123405, 2021 09 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1391522

ABSTRACT

Importance: Mass incarceration is known to foster infectious disease outbreaks, amplification of infectious diseases in surrounding communities, and exacerbation of health disparities in disproportionately policed communities. To date, however, policy interventions intended to achieve epidemic mitigation in US communities have neglected to account for decarceration as a possible means of protecting public health and safety. Objective: To evaluate the association of jail decarceration and government anticontagion policies with reductions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used county-level data from January to November 2020 to analyze COVID-19 cases, jail populations, and anticontagion policies in a panel regression model to estimate the association of jail decarceration and anticontagion policies with COVID-19 growth rates. A total of 1605 counties with data available on both jail population and COVID-19 cases were included in the analysis. This sample represents approximately 51% of US counties, 72% of the US population, and 60% of the US jail population. Exposures: Changes to jail populations and implementation of 10 anticontagion policies: nursing home visitation bans, school closures, mask mandates, prison visitation bans, stay-at-home orders, and closure of nonessential businesses, gyms, bars, movie theaters, and restaurants. Main Outcomes and Measures: Daily COVID-19 case growth rates. Results: In the 1605 counties included in this study, the mean (SD) prison population was 283.38 (657.78) individuals, and the mean (SD) population was 315.24 (2151.01) persons per square mile. An estimated 80% reduction in US jail populations, achievable through noncarceral management of nonviolent alleged offenses and in line with average international incarceration rates, would have been associated with a 2.0% (95% CI, 0.8%-3.1%) reduction in daily COVID-19 case growth rates. Jail decarceration was associated with 8 times larger reductions in COVID-19 growth rates in counties with above-median population density (4.6%; 95% CI, 2.2%- 7.1%) relative to those below this median (0.5%; 95% CI, 0.1%-0.9%). Nursing home visitation bans were associated with a 7.3% (95% CI, 5.8%-8.9%) reduction in COVID-19 case growth rates, followed by school closures (4.3%; 95% CI, 2.0%-6.6%), mask mandates (2.5%; 95% CI, 1.7%-3.3%), prison visitation bans (1.2%; 95% CI, 0.2%-2.2%), and stay-at-home orders (0.8%; 95% CI, 0.1%-1.6%). Conclusions and Relevance: Although many studies have documented that high incarceration rates are associated with communitywide health harms, this study is, to date, the first to show that decarceration is associated with population-level public health benefits. Its findings suggest that, among other anticontagion interventions, large-scale decarceration and changes to pretrial detention policies are likely to be important for improving US public health, biosecurity, and pandemic preparedness.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Jails/organization & administration , Prisoners/statistics & numerical data , Cohort Studies , Communicable Disease Control/legislation & jurisprudence , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , United States
12.
JAMA Netw Open ; 4(8): e2120728, 2021 08 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1366205

ABSTRACT

Importance: Emergency department (ED) and emergency medical services (EMS) volumes decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the amount attributable to voluntary refusal vs effects of the pandemic and public health restrictions is unknown. Objective: To examine the factors associated with EMS refusal in relation to COVID-19 cases, public health interventions, EMS responses, and prehospital deaths. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in Detroit, Michigan, from March 1 to June 30, 2020. Emergency medical services responses geocoded to Census tracts were analyzed by individuals' age, sex, date, and community resilience using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Social Vulnerability Index. Response counts were adjusted with Poisson regression, and odds of refusals and deaths were adjusted by logistic regression. Exposures: A COVID-19 outbreak characterized by a peak in local COVID-19 incidence and the strictest stay-at-home orders to date, followed by a nadir in incidence and broadly lifted restrictions. Main Outcomes and Measures: Multivariable-adjusted difference in 2020 vs 2019 responses by incidence rate and refusals or deaths by odds. The Social Vulnerability Index was used to capture community social determinants of health as a risk factor for death or refusal. The index contains 4 domain subscores; possible overall score is 0 to 15, with higher scores indicating greater vulnerability. Results: A total of 80 487 EMS responses with intended ED transport, 2059 prehospital deaths, and 16 064 refusals (62 636 completed EMS to ED transports) from 334 Census tracts were noted during the study period. Of the cohort analyzed, 38 621 were women (48%); mean (SD) age was 49.0 (21.4) years, and mean (SD) Social Vulnerability Index score was 9.6 (1.6). Tracts with the highest per-population EMS transport refusal rates were characterized by higher unemployment, minority race/ethnicity, single-parent households, poverty, disability, lack of vehicle access, and overall Social Vulnerability Index score (9.6 vs 9.0, P = .002). At peak COVID-19 incidence and maximal stay-at-home orders, there were higher total responses (adjusted incident rate ratio [aIRR], 1.07; 1.03-1.12), odds of deaths (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.60; 95% CI, 1.20-2.12), and refusals (aOR, 2.33; 95% CI, 2.09-2.60) but fewer completed ED transports (aIRR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.78-0.86). With public health restrictions lifted and the nadir of COVID-19 cases, responses (aIRR, 1.01; 0.97-1.05) and deaths (aOR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.81-1.41) returned to 2019 baselines, but differences in refusals (aOR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.14-1.41) and completed transports (aIRR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.90-0.99) remained. Multivariable-adjusted 2020 refusal was associated with female sex (aOR, 2.71; 95% CI, 2.43-3.03 in 2020 at the peak; aOR 1.47; 95% CI, 1.32-1.64 at the nadir). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, EMS transport refusals increased with the COVID-19 outbreak's peak and remained elevated despite receding public health restrictions, COVID-19 incidence, total EMS responses, and prehospital deaths. Voluntary refusal was associated with decreased EMS transports to EDs, disproportionately so among women and vulnerable communities.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Emergency Medical Services/statistics & numerical data , Patient Acceptance of Health Care/statistics & numerical data , Transportation of Patients/statistics & numerical data , Treatment Refusal/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Aged , COVID-19/prevention & control , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Emergency Service, Hospital/statistics & numerical data , Female , Humans , Logistic Models , Male , Michigan/epidemiology , Middle Aged , Odds Ratio , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
13.
Comput Math Methods Med ; 2021: 8873059, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1362017

ABSTRACT

When encountering the outbreak and early spreading of COVID-19, the Government of Japan imposed gradually upgraded restriction policies and declared the state of emergency in April 2020 for the first time. To evaluate the efficacy of the countering strategies in different periods, we constructed a SEIADR (susceptible-exposed-infected-asymptomatic-documented-recovered) model to simulate the cases and determined corresponding spreading coefficients. The effective reproduction number R t was obtained to evaluate the measures controlling the COVID-19 conducted by the Government of Japan during different stages. It was found that the strict containing strategies during the state of emergency period drastically inhibit the COVID-19 trend. R t was decreased to 1.1123 and 0.8911 in stages 4 and 5 (a state of emergency in April and May 2020) from 3.5736, 2.0126, 3.0672 in the previous three stages when the containing strategies were weak. The state of emergency was declared again in view of the second wave of massive infections in January 2021. We estimated the cumulative infected cases and additional days to contain the COVID-19 transmission for the second state of emergency using this model. R t was 1.028 which illustrated that the strategies were less effective than the previous state of emergency. Finally, the overall infected population was predicted using combined isolation and testing intensity; the effectiveness and the expected peak time were evaluated. If using the optimized control strategies in the current stage, the spread of COVID-19 in Japan could be controlled within 30 days. The total confirmed cases should reduce to less than 4.2 × 105 by April 2021. This model study suggested stricter isolating measures may be required to shorten the period of the state of emergency.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/transmission , Emergencies , Models, Biological , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Algorithms , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Testing/methods , COVID-19 Testing/statistics & numerical data , Communicable Disease Control/legislation & jurisprudence , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Computational Biology , Computer Simulation , Humans , Japan/epidemiology , Least-Squares Analysis , Mathematical Concepts , Models, Statistical , National Health Programs/legislation & jurisprudence , Nonlinear Dynamics , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data
14.
JAMA Netw Open ; 4(8): e2119621, 2021 08 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1359743

ABSTRACT

Importance: In 2020 and early 2021, the National Football League (NFL) and National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) opted to host football games in stadiums across the country. The in-person attendance of games varied with time and from county to county. There is currently no evidence on whether limited in-person attendance of games is associated with COVID-19 case numbers on a county-level. Objective: To assess whether NFL and NCAA football games with limited in-person attendance were associated with increased COVID-19 cases in the counties they were held compared with a matched set of counties. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this time-series cross-sectional study, every county hosting NFL or NCAA games with in-person attendance (treated group) in 2020 and 2021 was matched with a county that that did not host a game on the corresponding day but had an identical game history for up to 14 days prior (control group). A standard matching method was used to further refine this matched set so that the treated and matched control counties had similar population size, nonpharmaceutical interventions in place, and COVID-19 trends. The association of hosting games with in-person attendance with COVID-19 cases was assessed using a difference-in-difference estimator. Data were analyzed from August 29 to December 28, 2020. Exposures: Hosting NFL or NCAA games. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was estimation of new COVID-19 cases per 100 000 residents at the county level reported up to 14 days after a game among counties with NFL and NCAA games with in-person attendance. Results: A total of 528 games with in-person attendance (101 NFL games [19.1%]; 427 NCAA games [80.9%]) were included. The matching algorithm returned 361 matching sets of counties. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) number of attendance for NFL games was 9949 (6000 to 13 797) people. The median number of attendance for NCAA games was not available, and attendance was recorded as a binary variable. The median (IQR) daily new COVID-19 cases in treatment group counties hosting games was 26.14 (10.77-50.25) cases per 100 000 residents on game day. The median (IQR) daily new COVID-19 cases in control group counties where no games were played was 24.11 (9.64-48.55) cases per 100 000 residents on game day. The treatment effect size ranged from -5.17 to 4.72, with a mean (SD) of 1.21 (2.67) cases per 100 000 residents, within the 14-day period in all counties hosting the games, and the daily treatment effect trend remained relatively steady during this period. Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study did not find a consistent increase in the daily COVID-19 cases per 100 000 residents in counties where NFL and NCAA games were held with limited in-person attendance. These findings suggest that NFL and NCAA football games hosted with limited in-person attendance were not associated with substantial risk for increased local COVID-19 cases.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Population Health/statistics & numerical data , Sentinel Surveillance , Sports and Recreational Facilities/statistics & numerical data , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/transmission , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Cross-Sectional Studies , Football , Humans , Organizations, Nonprofit , SARS-CoV-2 , Societies , United States/epidemiology , Universities
15.
PLoS One ; 16(8): e0255440, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1341504

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in quarantine/lockdown measures in most countries. Quarantine may create intense psychological problems including post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) especially for the vulnerable critically developing children/adolescents. Few studies evaluated PTSD associated with infectious disasters but no Saudi study investigated PTSD associated with COVID-19 in children/adolescents. This study was undertaken to screen for PTSD in children/adolescent in Saudi Arabia to identify its prevalence/risk factors during COVID-19 pandemic and its quarantine. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted after 2 months form start of quarantine for COVID-19 pandemic utilizing the original English version and an Arabic translated version for the University of California at Los Angeles Brief COVID-19 Screen for Child/Adolescent PTSD that can be parent-reported or self-completed by older children/adolescents. Participants (Saudi citizens/non-Saudi residents) were approached online via social media. RESULTS: Five hundred and thirty seven participants were enrolled. The participants were 262 boys and 275 girls with a mean age of 12.25±3.77 years. Symptoms of no, minimal, mild and potential PTSD were identified in 15.5%, 44.1%, 27.4% and 13.0% of children/adolescents, respectively. The age, gender, school grade, and residence were not predictive of PTSD symptoms. Univariate analysis of risk factors for PTSD revealed that work of a close relative around people who might be infected was significantly different between groups of PTSD symptoms, but this difference disappeared during multivariate analysis. Children/adolescents of Saudi citizens had significantly lower median total PTSD score than children/adolescents of expatriate families (p = 0.002). CONCLUSION: PTSD associated with the COVID-19 and its resultant quarantine shouldn't be overlooked in different populations as it is expected in a considerable proportion of children/adolescents with variable prevalence, risk factors and severity. Parents/healthcare providers must be aware of PTSD associated with COVID-19 or similar disasters, so, they can provide children/adolescent with effective coping mechanisms.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/psychology , Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/epidemiology , Stress, Psychological/epidemiology , Adaptation, Psychological/physiology , Adolescent , COVID-19/epidemiology , Child , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Pandemics , Psychology, Child , Quarantine/psychology , Quarantine/statistics & numerical data , Saudi Arabia/epidemiology , Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/etiology
16.
J Interferon Cytokine Res ; 41(7): 244-257, 2021 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1316789

ABSTRACT

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), which initiated as an endemic from China, converted into a pandemic disease worldwide within a couple of months' time. This has led researchers from all over the world to come together to find and develop possible curative or preventive strategies, including vaccine development, drug repurposing, plasma therapy, drug discovery, and cytokine-based therapies. Herein, we are providing, a summarized overview of immunopathology of the SARS-CoV-2 along with various therapeutic strategies undertaken to COVID-19 with a vision for their possible outcome. High levels of proinflammatory cytokines such as interleukin (IL)-7, G-CSF, IP-10, TNF-α, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), and IL-2 in severe cases of COVID-19 have been observed. Immune responses play significant roles in the determination of SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis. Thus, exploring the underlying mechanism of the immune system response to SARS-CoV-2 infection would help in the prediction of disease course and selection of intensive care and therapeutic strategy. As an effort toward developing possible therapeutics for COVID-19, we highlighted different types of vaccines, which are under clinical trials, and also discussed the impact of genome variability on efficacy of vaccine under development.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/immunology , COVID-19/immunology , Immune System/immunology , Immunity, Innate/immunology , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , COVID-19/drug therapy , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19 Vaccines/therapeutic use , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Global Health/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Immune System/drug effects , Immunity, Innate/drug effects , Mutation , Pandemics/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2/drug effects , SARS-CoV-2/genetics
17.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci ; 376(1829): 20200270, 2021 07 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1309689

ABSTRACT

Contact tracing is an important tool for allowing countries to ease lockdown policies introduced to combat SARS-CoV-2. For contact tracing to be effective, those with symptoms must self-report themselves while their contacts must self-isolate when asked. However, policies such as legal enforcement of self-isolation can create trade-offs by dissuading individuals from self-reporting. We use an existing branching process model to examine which aspects of contact tracing adherence should be prioritized. We consider an inverse relationship between self-isolation adherence and self-reporting engagement, assuming that increasingly strict self-isolation policies will result in fewer individuals self-reporting to the programme. We find that policies which increase the average duration of self-isolation, or that increase the probability that people self-isolate at all, at the expense of reduced self-reporting rate, will not decrease the risk of a large outbreak and may increase the risk, depending on the strength of the trade-off. These results suggest that policies to increase self-isolation adherence should be implemented carefully. Policies that increase self-isolation adherence at the cost of self-reporting rates should be avoided. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Contact Tracing/statistics & numerical data , Models, Theoretical , Pandemics , Basic Reproduction Number/statistics & numerical data , COVID-19/transmission , COVID-19/virology , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Disease Outbreaks , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity
18.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 14413, 2021 07 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1309468

ABSTRACT

Lockdowns imposed to stem the spread of COVID-19 massively disrupted the daily routines of many worldwide, but studies to date have been mostly confined to observations within a limited number of countries, based on subjective reports and surveys from specific time periods during the pandemic. We investigated associations between lockdown stringency and objective sleep and resting-heart rate measures in ~ 113,000 users of a consumer sleep tracker across 20 countries from Jan to Jul 2020, compared to an equivalent period in 2019. With stricter lockdown measures, midsleep times were universally delayed, particularly on weekdays, while midsleep variability and resting heart rate declined. These shifts (midsleep: + 0.09 to + 0.58 h; midsleep variability: - 0.12 to - 0.26 h; resting heart rate: - 0.35 to - 2.08 bpm) correlated with the severity of lockdown across different countries (all Ps < 0.001) and highlight the graded influence of stringency lockdowns on human physiology.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Heart Rate/physiology , Sleep/physiology , Humans , Longitudinal Studies , Multilevel Analysis , Quarantine
19.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 17(7): e1009162, 2021 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1305574

ABSTRACT

On March 23 2020, the UK enacted an intensive, nationwide lockdown to mitigate transmission of COVID-19. As restrictions began to ease, more localized interventions were used to target resurgences in transmission. Understanding the spatial scale of networks of human interaction, and how these networks change over time, is critical to targeting interventions at the most at-risk areas without unnecessarily restricting areas at low risk of resurgence. We use detailed human mobility data aggregated from Facebook users to determine how the spatially-explicit network of movements changed before and during the lockdown period, in response to the easing of restrictions, and to the introduction of locally-targeted interventions. We also apply community detection techniques to the weighted, directed network of movements to identify geographically-explicit movement communities and measure the evolution of these community structures through time. We found that the mobility network became more sparse and the number of mobility communities decreased under the national lockdown, a change that disproportionately affected long distance connections central to the mobility network. We also found that the community structure of areas in which locally-targeted interventions were implemented following epidemic resurgence did not show reorganization of community structure but did show small decreases in indicators of travel outside of local areas. We propose that communities detected using Facebook or other mobility data be used to assess the impact of spatially-targeted restrictions and may inform policymakers about the spatial extent of human movement patterns in the UK. These data are available in near real-time, allowing quantification of changes in the distribution of the population across the UK, as well as changes in travel patterns to inform our understanding of the impact of geographically-targeted interventions.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Travel/statistics & numerical data , Algorithms , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Computational Biology , Human Activities/statistics & numerical data , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Social Media/statistics & numerical data , United Kingdom
20.
Math Biosci ; 339: 108648, 2021 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1294054

ABSTRACT

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are important to mitigate the spread of infectious diseases as long as no vaccination or outstanding medical treatments are available. We assess the effectiveness of the sets of non-pharmaceutical interventions that were in place during the course of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic in Germany. Our results are based on hybrid models, combining SIR-type models on local scales with spatial resolution. In order to account for the age-dependence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), we include realistic prepandemic and recently recorded contact patterns between age groups. The implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions will occur on changed contact patterns, improved isolation, or reduced infectiousness when, e.g., wearing masks. In order to account for spatial heterogeneity, we use a graph approach and we include high-quality information on commuting activities combined with traveling information from social networks. The remaining uncertainty will be accounted for by a large number of randomized simulation runs. Based on the derived factors for the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions over the past months, we provide different forecast scenarios for the upcoming time.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Communicable Disease Control , Models, Statistical , Social Network Analysis , Spatial Analysis , Age Factors , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/transmission , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Communicable Disease Control/standards , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Germany , Humans
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