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Arch. venez. farmacol. ter ; 39(6): 795-807, 2020. tab, graf
Article | LILACS (Americas) | ID: covidwho-1110615


La pandemia producida por el virus SARS-CoV-2 es el gran enigma que enfrenta la salud global debido a su rápida ex- pansión, ante este escenario, la fitoterapia ha demostrado desde tiempos inmemorables su importancia en el aporte de innovaciones terapéuticas. En este contexto, se efectuó una revisión de las referencias bibliográficas oficiales del país, cruzándolas con la base de datos Natural medicine del Insti- tuto Karolinska, obteniendo 25 plantas medicinales con efec- to antiviral e inmunomodulador. Luego se utilizó tres bases de datos: Scopus, Google académico y BVS-MTCI, los que me- diante un screening focalizado en ambos efectos para virus ARN, quedaron 79 artículos, correspondientes a 14 plantas medicinales; de ellas 7 presentaron efectos anti-coronavirus: Sambucus nigra, Chinaca purpurea, Astragalus membra- naceus, Glycyrrhiza glabra, Eucaliptus globulus, Aloe vera, y Camellia sinensis; estas tres últimas, además, poseen un potencial efecto contra SARS-CoV-2, por lo que se propone profundizar en el estudio terapéutico de las mismas.

The pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus is the great- est issue facing global health due to its rapid expansion. Given this scenario, the phytotherapy has demonstrated its importance since time immemorial providing therapeutic in- novations. In this context, a review of the official bibliographic references of the country was carried out, crossing them with the Natural medicine database of the Karolinska Institute, ob- taining 25 medicinal plants with antiviral and immunomodu- latory effects. Then, three databases were used: Scopus, Google Scholar and BVS-MTCI, which through a focused screening in both effects for RNA viruses, it was left 79 ar- ticles, corresponding to 14 medicinal plants; of these plants, 7 presented anti-coronavirus effects: Sambucus nigra, Echi- nacea purpurea, Astragalus membranaceus, Glycyrrhiza gla- bra, Eucalyptus globulus, Aloe vera, and Camellia sinensis; the last three from these, in addition, have a potential effect against SARS-CoV-2, and for this reason, an in-depth study of their therapeutic properties is proposed.

Humans , Antiviral Agents , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Immunologic Factors , Plants, Medicinal , Phytotherapy
Onderstepoort J Vet Res ; 88(1): e1-e8, 2021 Feb 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1077469


Human coronaviruses are known respiratory pathogens associated with a range of respiratory illnesses, and there are considerable morbidity and hospitalisation amongst immune-compromised individuals of all age groups. The emergence of a highly pathogenic human coronavirus in China in 2019 has confirmed the long-held opinion that these viruses are important emerging and re-emerging pathogens. In this review article, we trace the discovery and emergence of coronaviruses (CoVs) over time since they were first reported. The review article will enrich our understanding on the host range, diversity and evolution, transmission of human CoVs and the threat posed by these viruses circulating in animal populations but overtime have spilled over to humans because of the increased proximity between humans and animals.

Communicable Diseases, Emerging/virology , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Coronavirus/classification , Animals , Coronavirus/genetics , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Disease Outbreaks , Host Specificity , Humans
Nature ; 590(7844): 7, 2021 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1075161
Asian J Psychiatr ; 56: 102509, 2021 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1064770


Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was recently declared a pandemic by the WHO. This outbreak threatens not only physical health but also has significant repercussions on mental health. In recent world history, major infectious outbreaks were associated with severe mental health sequelae, including suicide. In this study, we systematically review the literature on suicidal outcomes during major international respiratory outbreaks, including COVID-19. We reviewed descriptive and analytic articles addressing suicide during major international respiratory outbreaks. We searched PubMed, Medline, Embase, Scopus, and PsycInfo databases and then utilized an independent method for study selection by a pair of reviewers. Two reviewers completed data abstraction and conducted a narrative summary of the findings. Our search generated 2,153 articles. Nine studies (three descriptive, five analytical, and one with mixed methodology) were eligible. The included studies were heterogeneous, divergent in methods, and with a low degree of evidence. Deducing an association between pandemics, suicide, and suicide-related outcomes remains thus poorly supported. Future research with better methodological characteristics, the use of longitudinal studies, and a focus on suicide as the primary outcome would allow for an in-depth understanding and formulation of the scope of this problem.

/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome/epidemiology , Suicidal Ideation , Suicide/statistics & numerical data , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Humans , Suicide, Attempted/statistics & numerical data , Suicide, Completed/statistics & numerical data
Ann Clin Microbiol Antimicrob ; 20(1): 8, 2021 Jan 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1067240


The Severe Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has gained research attention worldwide, given the current pandemic. Nevertheless, a previous zoonotic and highly pathogenic coronavirus, the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), is still causing concern, especially in Saudi Arabia and neighbour countries. The MERS-CoV has been reported from respiratory samples in more than 27 countries, and around 2500 cases have been reported with an approximate fatality rate of 35%. After its emergence in 2012 intermittent, sporadic cases, nosocomial infections and many community clusters of MERS continued to occur in many countries. Human-to-human transmission resulted in the large outbreaks in Saudi Arabia. The inherent genetic variability among various clads of the MERS-CoV might have probably paved the events of cross-species transmission along with changes in the inter-species and intra-species tropism. The current review is drafted using an extensive review of literature on various databases, selecting of publications irrespective of favouring or opposing, assessing the merit of study, the abstraction of data and analysing data. The genome of MERS-CoV contains around thirty thousand nucleotides having seven predicted open reading frames. Spike (S), envelope (E), membrane (M), and nucleocapsid (N) proteins are the four main structural proteins. The surface located spike protein (S) of betacoronaviruses has been established to be one of the significant factors in their zoonotic transmission through virus-receptor recognition mediation and subsequent initiation of viral infection. Three regions in Saudi Arabia (KSA), Eastern Province, Riyadh and Makkah were affected severely. The epidemic progression had been the highest in 2014 in Makkah and Riyadh and Eastern Province in 2013. With a lurking epidemic scare, there is a crucial need for effective therapeutic and immunological remedies constructed on sound molecular investigations.

Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Coronavirus Infections/drug therapy , /genetics , Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus/genetics , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/genetics , /genetics , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Cross Infection/epidemiology , Cross Infection/virology , Disease Outbreaks , Humans , Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus/isolation & purification , Phylogeny , RNA, Viral/genetics , Saudi Arabia/epidemiology
mBio ; 12(1)2021 01 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1066816


In December 2019 a new coronavirus (CoV) emerged as a human pathogen, SARS-CoV-2. There are few data on human coronavirus infections among individuals living with HIV. In this study we probed the role of pneumococcal coinfections with seasonal CoVs among children living with and without HIV hospitalized for pneumonia. We also described the prevalence and clinical manifestations of these infections. A total of 39,836 children who participated in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial on the efficacy of a 9-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV9) were followed for lower respiratory tract infection hospitalizations until 2 years of age. Nasopharyngeal aspirates were collected at the time of hospitalization and were screened by PCR for four seasonal CoVs. The frequency of CoV-associated pneumonia was higher in children living with HIV (19.9%) than in those without HIV (7.6%, P < 0.001). Serial CoV infections were detected in children living with HIV. The case fatality risk among children with CoV-associated pneumonia was higher in those living with HIV (30.4%) than without HIV (2.9%, P = 0.001). C-reactive protein and procalcitonin levels were elevated in 36.8% (≥40 mg/liter) and 64.7% (≥0.5 ng/ml), respectively, of the fatal cases living with HIV. Among children without HIV, there was a 64.0% (95% CI: 22.9% to 83.2%) lower incidence of CoV-associated pneumonia hospitalizations among PCV9 recipients compared to placebo recipients. These data suggest that Streptococcus pneumoniae infections might have a role in the development of pneumonia associated with endemic CoVs, that PCV may prevent pediatric CoV-associated hospitalization, and that children living with HIV with CoV infections develop more severe outcomes.IMPORTANCE SARS-CoV-2 may cause severe hospitalization, but little is known about the role of secondary bacterial infection in these severe cases, beyond the observation of high levels of reported inflammatory markers, associated with bacterial infection, such as procalcitonin. We did a secondary analysis of a double-blind randomized trial of PCV to examine its impact on human CoV infections before the pandemic. We found that both children living with and without HIV randomized to receive PCV had evidence of less hospitalization due to seasonal CoV, suggesting that pneumococcal coinfection may play a role in severe hospitalized CoV infections.

AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections/prevention & control , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Pneumococcal Vaccines/administration & dosage , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Streptococcus pneumoniae/immunology , AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections/epidemiology , AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections/pathology , Coinfection/epidemiology , Coinfection/microbiology , Coinfection/prevention & control , Coinfection/virology , Coronavirus/classification , Coronavirus/isolation & purification , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/pathology , Follow-Up Studies , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Incidence , Infant , Pneumonia, Pneumococcal/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Pneumococcal/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Prevalence , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
J Infect Public Health ; 14(1): 123-130, 2021 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1065353


BACKGROUND: The aim of this research is to assess the predictive accuracy of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) - an innovative tool for prompt identification of the causative agent of infectious diseases during outbreaks - when field epidemiological data collected from a novel outbreak of unknown origin are analysed by the tool. For this reason, it has been taken into account the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, which began in China at the end of December 2019, has rapidly spread around the globe, and it has led to a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), declared to the 30th of January 2020 by the World Health Organization (WHO). METHODS: The IDS takes advantage of an off-line database, built before the COVID-19 pandemic, which represents a pivotal characteristic for working without an internet connection. The software has been tested using the epidemiological data available in different and progressive stages of the COVID-19 outbreak. As a comparison, the results of the tests performed using the epidemiological data from the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) epidemic in 2002 and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) epidemic in 2012, are shown. RESULTS: The overall outcomes provided by the software are comforting, as a matter of the fact that IDS has identified with a good accuracy the SARS and MERS epidemics (over 90%), while, as expected, it has not provided erroneous and equivocal readings after the elaboration COVID-19 epidemic data. CONCLUSIONS: Even though IDS has not recognized the COVID-19 epidemic, it has not given to the end user a false result and wrong interpretation, as expected by the developers. For this reason, IDS reveals itself as useful software to identify a possible epidemic or outbreak. Thus, the intention of developers is to plan, once the software will be released, dedicated updates and upgrades of the database (e.g., SARS-CoV-2) in order to keep this tool increasingly useful and applicable to reality.

/epidemiology , Databases, Factual , Population Surveillance , /virology , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Disease Outbreaks , Global Health , Humans , Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus , SARS Virus
PLoS One ; 16(1): e0246120, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1051174


Modelling the spread of coronavirus globally while learning trends at global and country levels remains crucial for tackling the pandemic. We introduce a novel variational-LSTM Autoencoder model to predict the spread of coronavirus for each country across the globe. This deep Spatio-temporal model does not only rely on historical data of the virus spread but also includes factors related to urban characteristics represented in locational and demographic data (such as population density, urban population, and fertility rate), an index that represents the governmental measures and response amid toward mitigating the outbreak (includes 13 measures such as: 1) school closing, 2) workplace closing, 3) cancelling public events, 4) close public transport, 5) public information campaigns, 6) restrictions on internal movements, 7) international travel controls, 8) fiscal measures, 9) monetary measures, 10) emergency investment in health care, 11) investment in vaccines, 12) virus testing framework, and 13) contact tracing). In addition, the introduced method learns to generate a graph to adjust the spatial dependences among different countries while forecasting the spread. We trained two models for short and long-term forecasts. The first one is trained to output one step in future with three previous timestamps of all features across the globe, whereas the second model is trained to output 10 steps in future. Overall, the trained models show high validation for forecasting the spread for each country for short and long-term forecasts, which makes the introduce method a useful tool to assist decision and policymaking for the different corners of the globe.

Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , /epidemiology , Coronavirus/isolation & purification , Disease Outbreaks , Epidemiologic Methods , Epidemiological Monitoring , Forecasting , Global Health , Models, Statistical , Pandemics , /isolation & purification
PLoS One ; 16(1): e0246084, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1050493


The Nicaraguan COVID-19 situation is exceptional for Central America. The government restricts testing and testing supplies, and the true extent of the coronavirus crisis remains unknown. Dozens of deaths have been reported among health-care workers. However, statistics on the crisis' effect on health-care workers and their risk of being infected with SARS-CoV-2 are lacking. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in health-care workers and to examine correlations with risk factors such as age, sex and comorbidities. Study participants (N = 402, median age 38.48 years) included physicians, nurses and medical assistants, from public and private hospitals, independent of symptom presentation. SARS-CoV-2 was detected on saliva samples using the loop-mediated isothermal amplification assay. A questionnaire was employed to determine subjects' COVID-19-associated symptoms and their vulnerability to complications from risk factors such as age, sex, professional role and comorbidities. The study was performed five weeks into the exponential growth period in Nicaragua. We discovered that 30.35% of health-care workers participating in our study had been infected with SARS-CoV-2. A large percentage (54.92%) of those who tested positive were asymptomatic and were still treating patients. Nearly 50% of health-care workers who tested positive were under 40, an astonishing 30.33% reported having at least one comorbidity. In our study, sex and age are important risk factors for the probability of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 with significance being greatest among those between 30 and 40 years of age. In general, being male resulted in higher risk. Our data are the first non-governmental data obtained in Nicaragua. They shed light on several important aspects of COVID-19 in an underdeveloped nation whose government has implemented a herd-immunity strategy, while lacking an adequate healthcare system and sufficient PPE for health-care workers. These data are important for creating policies for containing the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

/epidemiology , Health Personnel/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Aged , Asymptomatic Diseases/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Female , Humans , Infectious Disease Transmission, Patient-to-Professional/statistics & numerical data , Male , Middle Aged , Nicaragua/epidemiology , Prevalence , Risk Factors , Saliva/virology
Arch Virol ; 166(3): 929-933, 2021 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1046769


This is the first study of respiratory infections in Córdoba, Argentina, caused by endemic human coronavirus (HCoV)-OC43 and HCOV-229E, which circulated during 2011-2012 at a 3% rate, either as single or multiple infections. They were detected mainly in children, but HCoV-229E was also found in adults. HCoV-229E was detected in five out of 631 samples (0.8%), and HCoV-OC43 was found in 14 out of 631 (2.2%) samples. Clinical manifestations ranged from fever to respiratory distress, and a significant association of HCoV-229E with asthma was observed. Further studies and surveillance are needed to provide better clinical insights, early diagnosis, and medical care of patients, as well as to contribute to epidemiology modeling and prevention.

Common Cold/epidemiology , Coronavirus 229E, Human/isolation & purification , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus OC43, Human/isolation & purification , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Argentina , Child , Child, Preschool , Common Cold/virology , Coronavirus 229E, Human/genetics , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Coronavirus OC43, Human/genetics , Cross-Sectional Studies , Humans , Infant , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , Seasons , Young Adult
Infect Genet Evol ; 88: 104708, 2021 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1039486


The pandemic due to novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 is a serious global concern now. More than thousand new COVID-19 infections are getting reported daily for this virus across the globe. Thus, the medical research communities are trying to find the remedy to restrict the spreading of this virus, while the vaccine development work is still under research in parallel. In such critical situation, not only the medical research community, but also the scientists in different fields like microbiology, pharmacy, bioinformatics and data science are also sharing effort to accelerate the process of vaccine development, virus prediction, forecasting the transmissible probability and reproduction cases of virus for social awareness. With the similar context, in this article, we have studied sequence variability of the virus primarily focusing on three aspects: (a) sequence variability among SARS-CoV-1, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 in human host, which are in the same coronavirus family, (b) sequence variability of SARS-CoV-2 in human host for 54 different countries and (c) sequence variability between coronavirus family and country specific SARS-CoV-2 sequences in human host. For this purpose, as a case study, we have performed topological analysis of 2391 global genomic sequences of SARS-CoV-2 in association with SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV using an integrated semi-alignment based computational technique. The results of the semi-alignment based technique are experimentally and statistically found similar to alignment based technique and computationally faster. Moreover, the outcome of this analysis can help to identify the nations with homogeneous SARS-CoV-2 sequences, so that same vaccine can be applied to their heterogeneous human population.

/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Genetic Variation , Genome, Viral , Pandemics , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome/epidemiology , Africa/epidemiology , Americas/epidemiology , Asia/epidemiology , Australia/epidemiology , Base Sequence , /virology , Computational Biology/methods , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Europe/epidemiology , Host-Pathogen Interactions/genetics , Humans , Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus/genetics , Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus/pathogenicity , SARS Virus/genetics , SARS Virus/pathogenicity , Sequence Alignment , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome/transmission , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome/virology
J Med Internet Res ; 23(1): e24097, 2021 01 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1032503


BACKGROUND: Digital communication technologies are playing an important role in the health communication strategies of governments and public health authorities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The internet and social media have become important sources of health-related information on COVID-19 and on protective behaviors. In addition, the COVID-19 infodemic is spreading faster than the coronavirus itself, which interferes with governmental health-related communication efforts. This jeopardizes national public health containment strategies. Therefore, digital health literacy is a key competence to navigate web-based COVID-19-related information and service environments. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate university students' digital health literacy and web-based information-seeking behaviors during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. METHODS: A cross-sectional study among 14,916 university students aged ≥18 years from 130 universities across all 16 federal states of Germany was conducted using a web-based survey. Along with sociodemographic characteristics (sex, age, subjective social status), the measures included five subscales from the Digital Health Literacy Instrument (DHLI), which was adapted to the specific context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Web-based information-seeking behavior was investigated by examining the web-based sources used by university students and the topics that the students searched for in connection with COVID-19. Data were analyzed using univariate and bivariate analyses. RESULTS: Across digital health literacy dimensions, the greatest difficulties could be found for assessing the reliability of health-related information (5964/14,103, 42.3%) and the ability to determine whether the information was written with a commercial interest (5489/14,097, 38.9%). Moreover, the respondents indicated that they most frequently have problems finding the information they are looking for (4282/14,098, 30.4%). When stratified according to sociodemographic characteristics, significant differences were found, with female university students reporting a lower DHLI for the dimensions of "information searching" and "evaluating reliability." Search engines, news portals, and websites of public bodies were most often used by the respondents as sources to search for information on COVID-19 and related issues. Female students were found to use social media and health portals more frequently, while male students used Wikipedia and other web-based encyclopedias as well as YouTube more often. The use of social media was associated with a low ability to critically evaluate information, while the opposite was observed for the use of public websites. CONCLUSIONS: Although digital health literacy is well developed in university students, a significant proportion of students still face difficulties with certain abilities to evaluate information. There is a need to strengthen the digital health literacy capacities of university students using tailored interventions. Improving the quality of health-related information on the internet is also key.

/epidemiology , Health Literacy/methods , Information Seeking Behavior/physiology , Internet/standards , Adult , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Germany , Humans , Male , Reproducibility of Results , Students , Surveys and Questionnaires , Young Adult
J Dairy Sci ; 104(2): 2151-2163, 2021 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1031655


The objective of this prospective cohort study was to investigate the effect of bovine coronavirus (BCoV), bovine rotavirus (BRoV), and Cryptosporidiumparvum on dairy calf health and performance and to determine the prevalence of these pathogens. A total of 198 male dairy calves housed at a grain-fed veal facility were examined from June 11, 2018, to October 9, 2018. Calves were fed milk replacer twice daily and housed individually until weaning at 56 d. Once weaned, calves were moved into groups of 5 until they were moved to a finishing facility at 77 d. At the grain-fed veal facility, calves were scored for fecal consistency for the first 28 d and had fecal samples taken on arrival and at 7 and 14 d. Fecal samples were frozen and submitted to a commercial laboratory, where they were tested for BCoV, C.parvum, and 2 groups of BRoV: group A (BRoV A) and group B (BRoV B). Calves were weighed on arrival and at 14, 49, 56, and 77 d using a digital body scale. Treatments for disease and mortalities that occurred over the 77 d were also recorded. Statistical models, including Cox proportional hazards and repeated measures models, were built to determine the effect of infection with 1 of the pathogens. Over the 3 sampling points, 151 (85.8%), 178 (94.2%), 3 (1.5%), and 97 (57.4%) calves tested positive at least once for BCoV, BRoV A, BRoV B, and C.parvum, respectively. The source of the calves and the level of serum total protein measured on arrival were associated with testing positive for a pathogen. Calves that tested positive for C.parvum had an increased proportion of days with diarrhea and severe diarrhea; calves that tested positive for BCoV and BRoV A had an increased proportion of days with severe diarrhea. In addition, calves that tested positive for C.parvum had a higher hazard of being treated for respiratory disease. With respect to body weight, calves that had diarrhea or severe diarrhea had lower body weight at 49, 56, and 77 d. Specifically, calves that had an increased proportion of days with diarrhea showed a reduction in weight gain of up to 15 kg compared to calves without diarrhea. Calves that tested positive for C.parvum had a lower body weight at 49, 56, and 77 d; calves that tested positive for BCoV had a lower body weight at 56 and 77 d. This study demonstrates that the prevalence of BCoV, BRoV A, and C.parvum infection is high in this population of calves and has significant effects on the occurrence of diarrhea and body weight gain. Future studies should evaluate approaches for minimizing the effect of infection with these pathogens to improve the welfare, health, and productivity of dairy calves.

Cattle Diseases/physiopathology , Coronavirus Infections/veterinary , Coronavirus, Bovine , Cryptosporidiosis/physiopathology , Cryptosporidium parvum , Rotavirus Infections/veterinary , Animals , Cattle , Cattle Diseases/epidemiology , Cattle Diseases/parasitology , Cattle Diseases/virology , Cohort Studies , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/physiopathology , Cryptosporidiosis/parasitology , Diarrhea/parasitology , Diarrhea/veterinary , Diarrhea/virology , Feces/chemistry , Feces/parasitology , Feces/virology , Male , Prevalence , Prospective Studies , Respiratory Tract Diseases/therapy , Respiratory Tract Diseases/veterinary , Rotavirus , Rotavirus Infections/epidemiology , Rotavirus Infections/physiopathology , Weight Gain
Science ; 371(6530): 741-745, 2021 02 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1029163


We are currently faced with the question of how the severity of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may change in the years ahead. Our analysis of immunological and epidemiological data on endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs) shows that infection-blocking immunity wanes rapidly but that disease-reducing immunity is long-lived. Our model, incorporating these components of immunity, recapitulates both the current severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection and the benign nature of HCoVs, suggesting that once the endemic phase is reached and primary exposure is in childhood, SARS-CoV-2 may be no more virulent than the common cold. We predict a different outcome for an emergent coronavirus that causes severe disease in children. These results reinforce the importance of behavioral containment during pandemic vaccine rollout, while prompting us to evaluate scenarios for continuing vaccination in the endemic phase.

/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Endemic Diseases , Adaptive Immunity , Adolescent , Adult , Age Distribution , Antibodies, Viral/blood , Antibodies, Viral/immunology , /transmission , Child , Child, Preschool , Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology , Coronavirus/immunology , Coronavirus Infections/immunology , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Endemic Diseases/prevention & control , Epidemics , Humans , Immunoglobulin G/blood , Immunoglobulin M/blood , Infant , /pathogenicity , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome/epidemiology , Severity of Illness Index
Rev. enferm. UERJ ; 28: e50470, jan.-dez. 2020.
Article in English, Portuguese | LILACS (Americas) | ID: covidwho-1029688


Objetivo: analisar casos acumulados da COVID-19 em Brasil, Espanha, Itália, China e EUA. Métodos: estudo ecológico, com uso de dados secundários. Realizou-se série temporal de casos cumulativos de COVID-19 por 28 dias, após o 100º caso confirmado de cada país (baseado nas estatísticas do Worldometer 2020). Modelos de tendência linear, exponencial, potencial e logaritmo foram testados, sendo escolhido o melhor coeficiente de determinação (R²). No Brasil, a linha de tendência foi segmentada em 1º-14º dia e 15º-28º dia. Resultados: no 100º dia, os EUA possuíam maior número de casos e o Brasil, o menor. Houve linha de tendência em sua maioria exponencial, com maior velocidade de crescimento nos EUA. No Brasil, houve tendência de crescimento mais lento no segundo período. Conclusão: as linhas de tendência calculadas demonstraram pior prognóstico para os EUA. No Brasil, o crescimento do número cumulativo de casos foi mais lento na no segundo período do estudo.

Objective: to examine cumulative cases of COVID-19 in Brazil, Spain, Italy, China, and USA. Method: in this ecological study, secondary data were used to produce time series of cumulative cases of COVID-19 over 28 days after the 100th case confirmed in each country (from Worldometer 2020 statistics). Linear, exponential, potential and logarithmic trend models were tested, and the best coefficient of determination (R²) was chosen. In Brazil, the trend line was segmented into days 1-14 and 15-28. Results: on day 100, the USA had the highest number of cases and Brazil, the lowest. The trend lines were mostly exponential, with highest growth rate in the USA. In Brazil, the growth trend was slower in the second period. Conclusion: the calculated trend lines showed a worse prognosis for the USA. In Brazil, the cumulative number of cases grew more slowly in the second period of the study.

Objetivo: examinar casos acumulados de COVID-19 en Brasil, España, Italia, China y Estados Unidos. Método: en este estudio ecológico, se utilizaron datos secundarios para producir series de tiempo de casos acumulados de COVID-19 durante 28 días después del 100o caso confirmado en cada país (de las estadísticas del Worldometer 2020). Se probaron modelos de tendencia lineal, exponencial, potencial y logarítmica y se eligió el mejor coeficiente de determinación (R²). En Brasil, la línea de tendencia se segmentó en los días 1-14 y 15-28. Resultados: el día 100, EE.UU. tuvo el mayor número de casos y Brasil, el menor. Las líneas de tendencia fueron en su mayoría exponenciales, con la tasa de crecimiento más alta en los EE. UU. En Brasil, la tendencia de crecimiento fue más lenta en el segundo período. Conclusión: las líneas de tendencia calculadas mostraron un peor pronóstico para EE. UU. En Brasil, el número acumulado de casos creció más lentamente en el segundo período del estudio.

Humans , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Betacoronavirus , Spain/epidemiology , United States/epidemiology , Brazil/epidemiology , China/epidemiology , Time Series Studies , Ecological Studies , Italy/epidemiology
Otolaryngol Clin North Am ; 53(6): 1159-1170, 2020 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1027957


This review explores the changes to practice associated with COVID-19 for providers treating patients with head and neck cancer and laryngeal pathology. The aim of the review is to highlight some of the challenges and considerations associated with treating this patient population during the pandemic. Additionally, it seeks to discuss some of the areas of concern related to ramping up clinical volume.

Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Elective Surgical Procedures/statistics & numerical data , Head and Neck Neoplasms/surgery , Infection Control/methods , Laryngectomy/methods , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Telemedicine/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Aged , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Elective Surgical Procedures/methods , Female , Head and Neck Neoplasms/diagnosis , Humans , Laryngectomy/adverse effects , Male , Middle Aged , Occupational Health/statistics & numerical data , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Patient Safety/statistics & numerical data , Personal Protective Equipment/statistics & numerical data , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Safety Management , Telemedicine/methods , United States