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3.
BMJ Open ; 11(12): e052646, 2021 12 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1591557

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To examine magnitude of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on inequalities in premature mortality in England by deprivation and ethnicity. DESIGN: A statistical model to estimate increased mortality in population subgroups during the COVID-19 pandemic by comparing observed with expected mortality in each group based on trends over the previous 5 years. SETTING: Information on deaths registered in England since 2015 was used, including age, sex, area of residence and cause of death. Ethnicity was obtained from Hospital Episode Statistics records linked to death data. PARTICIPANTS: Population study of England, including all 569 824 deaths from all causes registered between 21 March 2020 and 26 February 2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Excess mortality in each subgroup over and above the number expected based on trends in mortality in that group over the previous 5 years. RESULTS: The gradient in excess mortality by area deprivation was greater in the under 75s (the most deprived areas had 1.25 times as many deaths as expected, least deprived 1.14) than in all ages (most deprived had 1.24 times as many deaths as expected, least deprived 1.20). Among the black and Asian groups, all area deprivation quintiles had significantly larger excesses than white groups in the most deprived quintiles and there were no clear gradients across quintiles. Among the white group, only those in the most deprived quintile had more excess deaths than deaths directly involving COVID-19. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has widened inequalities in premature mortality by area deprivation. Among those under 75, the direct and indirect effects of the pandemic on deaths have disproportionately impacted ethnic minority groups irrespective of area deprivation, and the white group the most deprived areas. Statistics limited to deaths directly involving COVID-19 understate the pandemic's impact on inequalities by area deprivation and ethnic group at younger ages.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cross-Sectional Studies , England/epidemiology , Humans , Minority Groups , Mortality , Mortality, Premature , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
6.
Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol ; 9(10): 671-680, 2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1531932

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) has been reported to be increasing in frequency during the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to examine the rates of DKA hospital admissions and the patient demographics associated with DKA during the pandemic compared with in prepandemic years. METHODS: Using a comprehensive, multiethnic, national dataset, the Secondary Uses Service repository, we extracted all emergency hospital admissions in England coded with DKA from March 1 to June 30, 2020 (first wave of the pandemic), July 1 to Oct 31, 2020 (post-first wave), and Nov 1, 2020, to Feb 28, 2021 (second wave), and compared these with DKA admissions in the equivalent periods in 2017-20. We also examined baseline characteristics, mortality, and trends in patients who were admitted with DKA. FINDINGS: There were 8553 admissions coded with DKA during the first wave, 8729 during the post-first wave, and 10 235 during the second wave. Compared with preceding years, DKA admissions were 6% (95% CI 4-9; p<0·0001) higher in the first wave of the pandemic (from n=8048), 6% (3-8; p<0·0001) higher in the post-first wave (from n=8260), and 7% (4-9; p<0·0001) higher in the second wave (from n=9610). In the first wave, DKA admissions reduced by 19% (95% CI 16-21) in those with pre-existing type 1 diabetes (from n=4965 to n=4041), increased by 41% (35-47) in those with pre-existing type 2 diabetes (from n=2010 to n=2831), and increased by 57% (48-66) in those with newly diagnosed diabetes (from n=1072 to n=1681). Compared with prepandemic, type 2 diabetes DKA admissions were similarly common in older individuals and men but were higher in those of non-White ethnicities during the first wave. The increase in newly diagnosed DKA admissions occurred across all age groups and these were significantly increased in men and people of non-White ethnicities. In the post-first wave, DKA admissions did not return to the baseline level of previous years; DKA admissions were 14% (11-17) lower in patients with type 1 diabetes (from n=5208 prepandemic to n=4491), 30% (24-36) higher in patients with type 2 diabetes (from n=2011 to n=2613), and 56% (47-66) higher in patients with newly diagnosed diabetes (from n=1041 to n=1625). During the second wave, DKA admissions were 25% (22-27) lower in patients with type 1 diabetes (from n=5769 prepandemic to n=4337), 50% (44-56) higher in patients with type 2 diabetes (from n=2608 to n=3912), and 61% (52-70) higher in patients with newly diagnosed diabetes (from n=1234 to n=1986). INTERPRETATION: Our results provide evidence for differences in the numbers and characteristics of people presenting with DKA during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with in the preceding 3 years. Greater awareness of risk factors for DKA in type 2 diabetes and vigilance for newly diagnosed diabetes presenting with DKA during the COVID-19 pandemic might help mitigate the increased impact of DKA. FUNDING: None.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology , Diabetic Ketoacidosis/epidemiology , Emergency Service, Hospital/trends , Patient Admission/trends , Population Surveillance , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , COVID-19/prevention & control , Databases, Factual/trends , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/therapy , Diabetic Ketoacidosis/therapy , England/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Population Surveillance/methods , Time Factors , Young Adult
7.
Harm Reduct J ; 18(1): 114, 2021 11 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1526640

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Up-to-date monitoring of non-combustible nicotine products (e.g. e-cigarettes, nicotine replacement therapies (NRT), heated tobacco products (HTP); NNP) is important to assess their impact. To date, there is little evidence on the association between ever regular use (defined here as 1 year or more) of NNP and current smoking status. AIMS/METHODS: The purpose of this study was to examine the prevalence, and sociodemographic, alcohol and smoking status correlates, of ever regular use of NNP in England in 2020. A cross-sectional survey of adults in England was conducted between February and June 2020. RESULTS: A total of 8486 adults were surveyed; 94.9% (8055) were complete cases. The weighted prevalence of ever regular NNP use was 5.4% (n = 436; 95% CI 5.0-6.0), of which 82% (n = 360; 95% CI 78.7-85.8) was single and 18% (n = 79; 95% CI 14.8-22) multiple product use. Amongst ever regular NNP users, the prevalence of ever regular NRT, e-cigarette and HTP use was 64.7% (95% CI 60.1-69), 43.4% (95% CI 38.8-48) and 2.5% (95% CI 1.4-4.5), respectively. In adjusted analysis, ever regular NNP use was associated with smoking status, being significantly higher among current (22.3%; adjusted OR (aOR) 34.9, 95% CI 24.0-50.8) and ex-smokers (12.7%, aOR 19.8, 95% CI 11.1-14.4) than among never-smokers (0.6%). More advantaged occupational grade (aOR, 1.27 95% CI 1.02-1.57) and at least hazardous alcohol use (aOR, 1.38 95% CI 1.06-1.78) were associated with greater prevalence of ever regular NNP use. CONCLUSIONS: Ever regularly using NNP was highest among smokers and ex-smokers and rare among never-smokers. Among people who have ever regularly used NNP, NRT is the most popular.


Subject(s)
Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems , Smoking Cessation , Adult , Cross-Sectional Studies , England/epidemiology , Humans , Nicotine , Prevalence , Tobacco Use Cessation Devices
8.
BMJ Open ; 11(11): e053507, 2021 11 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1523038

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To project impacts of mass vaccination against COVID-19, and investigate possible impacts of different types of naturally acquired and vaccine-induced immunity on future dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from 2021 to 2024 in England. DESIGN: Deterministic, compartmental, discrete-time Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) modelling. PARTICIPANTS: Population in England. INTERVENTIONS: Mass vaccination programmes. OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily and cumulative number of deaths from COVID-19. RESULTS: If vaccine efficacy remains high (85%), the vaccine-induced sterilising immunity lasts ≥182 days, and the reinfectivity is greatly reduced (by ≥60%), annual mass vaccination programmes can prevent further COVID-19 outbreaks in England. Under optimistic scenarios, with annual revaccination programmes, the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths is estimated to be from 130 000 to 150 000 by the end of 2024. However, the total number of COVID-19 deaths may be up to 431 000 by the end of 2024, under scenarios with compromised vaccine efficacy (62.5%), short duration of natural and vaccine immunity (365/182 days) and small reduction in reinfectivity (30%). Under the assumed scenarios, more frequent revaccinations are associated with smaller total numbers and lower peaks of daily deaths from COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Under optimistic scenarios, mass immunisation using efficacious vaccines may enable society safely to return to normality. However, under plausible scenarios with low vaccine efficacy and short durability of immunity, COVID-19 could continue to cause recurrent waves of severe morbidity and mortality despite frequent vaccinations. It is crucial to monitor the vaccination effects in the real world, and to better understand characteristics of naturally acquired and vaccine-induced immunity against SARS-CoV-2.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Vaccines , England/epidemiology , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Vaccination
9.
PLoS One ; 16(11): e0259990, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1518365

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccination in many countries, including England, has been prioritised primarily by age. However, people of the same age can have very different health statuses. Frailty is a commonly used metric of health and has been found to be more strongly associated with mortality than age among COVID-19 inpatients. METHODS: We compared the number of first vaccine doses administered across the 135 NHS Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) of England to both the over 50 population and the estimated frail population in each area. Area-based frailty estimates were generated using the English Longitudinal Survey of Ageing (ELSA), a national survey of older people. We also compared the number of doses to the number of people with other risk factors associated with COVID-19: atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease, diabetes, learning disabilities, obesity and smoking status. RESULTS: We estimate that after 79 days of the vaccine program, across all Clinical Commissioning Group areas, the number of people who received a first vaccine per frail person ranged from 4.4 (95% CI 4.0-4.8) and 20.1 (95% CI 18.3-21.9). The prevalences of other risk factors were also poorly associated with the prevalence of vaccination across England. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination with age-based priority created area-based inequities in the number of doses administered relative to the number of people who are frail or have other risk factors associated with COVID-19. As frailty has previously been found to be more strongly associated with mortality than age for COVID-19 inpatients, an age-based priority system may increase the risk of mortality in some areas during the vaccine roll-out period. Authorities planning COVID-19 vaccination programmes should consider the disadvantages of an age-based priority system.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/immunology , Vaccination , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/immunology , Dose-Response Relationship, Immunologic , England/epidemiology , Geography , Humans , Prevalence , Risk Factors
10.
JAMA Netw Open ; 4(11): e2134803, 2021 11 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1516698

ABSTRACT

Importance: Infection with SARS-CoV-2 is associated with fatigue and sleep problems long after the acute phase of COVID-19. In addition, there are concerns of SARS-CoV-2 infection causing psychiatric illness; however, evidence of a direct effect is inconclusive. Objective: To assess risk of risk of incident or repeat psychiatric illness, fatigue, or sleep problems following SARS-CoV-2 infection and to analyze changes according to demographic subgroups. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study assembled matched cohorts using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum, a UK primary care registry of 11 923 499 individuals aged 16 years or older. Patients were followed-up for up to 10 months, from February 1 to December 9, 2020. Individuals with less than 2 years of historical data or less than 1 week follow-up were excluded. Individuals with positive results on a SARS-CoV-2 test without prior mental illness or with anxiety or depression, psychosis, fatigue, or sleep problems were matched with up to 4 controls based on sex, general practice, and year of birth. Controls were individuals who had negative SARS-CoV-2 test results. Data were analyzed from January to July 2021. Exposure: SARS-CoV-2 infection, determined via polymerase chain reaction testing. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cox proportional hazard models estimated the association between a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result and subsequent psychiatric morbidity (depression, anxiety, psychosis, or self-harm), sleep problems, fatigue, or psychotropic prescribing. Models adjusted for comorbidities, ethnicity, smoking, and body mass index. Results: Of 11 923 105 eligible individuals (6 011 020 [50.4%] women and 5 912 085 [49.6%] men; median [IQR] age, 44 [30-61] years), 232 780 individuals (2.0%) had positive result on a SARS-CoV-2 test. After applying selection criteria, 86 922 individuals were in the matched cohort without prior mental illness, 19 020 individuals had prior anxiety or depression, 1036 individuals had psychosis, 4152 individuals had fatigue, and 4539 individuals had sleep problems. After adjusting for observed confounders, there was an association between positive SARS-CoV-2 test results and psychiatric morbidity (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.83; 95% CI, 1.66-2.02), fatigue (aHR, 5.98; 95% CI, 5.33-6.71), and sleep problems (aHR, 3.16; 95% CI, 2.64-3.78). However, there was a similar risk of incident psychiatric morbidity for those with a negative SARS-CoV-2 test results (aHR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.65-1.77) and a larger increase associated with influenza (aHR, 2.98; 95% CI, 1.55-5.75). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of individuals registered at an English primary care practice during the pandemic, there was consistent evidence that SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with increased risk of fatigue and sleep problems. However, the results from the negative control analysis suggest that unobserved confounding may be responsible for at least some of the positive association between COVID-19 and psychiatric morbidity.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/complications , Fatigue/etiology , Pandemics , Psychological Distress , Psychotropic Drugs/therapeutic use , Sleep Wake Disorders/etiology , Sleep , Adult , Anxiety/drug therapy , Anxiety/epidemiology , Anxiety/etiology , COVID-19/psychology , COVID-19/virology , Cohort Studies , Depression/drug therapy , Depression/epidemiology , Depression/etiology , England/epidemiology , Fatigue/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Prevalence , Primary Health Care , Psychotic Disorders/drug therapy , Psychotic Disorders/epidemiology , Psychotic Disorders/etiology , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Sleep Wake Disorders/epidemiology , Stress, Psychological/etiology
11.
Lancet Public Health ; 6(11): e817-e825, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1514342

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: People with learning disabilities are at substantially increased risk of COVID-19 mortality, but evidence on risks of COVID-19 mortality for disabled people more generally is limited. We aimed to use population-level data to estimate the association between self-reported disability and death involving COVID-19 during the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in England. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, population-based cohort study of adults aged 30-100 years living in private households or communal establishments in England, using data from the Office for National Statistics Public Health Data Asset. Participants were present at the 2011 Census and alive on Jan 24, 2020. Participants reported being limited a lot in their daily activities, limited a little, or not limited at all, in response to a question from the 2011 Census. The outcome was death involving COVID-19, occurring between Jan 24, 2020, and Feb 28, 2021. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for the association between disability and death involving COVID-19, sequentially adjusting for age, residence type (private household, care home, or other communal establishment), geographical characteristics (local authority district and population density), sociodemographic characteristics (ethnicity, highest qualification, Index of Multiple Deprivation decile, household characteristics [National Statistics Socio-economic Classification of the household reference person, tenure of household, household size, family status, household composition, and key worker in household], key worker type, individual and household exposure to disease, and individual and household proximity to others), and health status (pre-existing health conditions, body-mass index, and number of admissions to hospital and days spent in hospital over the previous 3 years). FINDINGS: 29 293 845 adults were included in the study (13 806 623 [47%] men, 15 487 222 [53%] women), of whom 3 038 772 (10%) reported being limited a little and 2 011 576 (7%) reported being limited a lot. During follow-up, 105 213 people died from causes involving COVID-19 in England, 61 416 (58%) of whom were disabled. Age-adjusted analyses showed higher mortality involving COVID-19 among disabled people who were limited a lot (HR 3·05 [95% CI 2·98-3·11] for men; 3·48 [3·41-3·56] for women) and disabled people who were limited a little (HR 1·88 [1·84-1·92] for men; 2·03 [1·98-2·08] for women) than among non-disabled people. Adjustment for residence type, geography, sociodemographics, and health conditions reduced but did not eliminate the associations between disability and death involving COVID-19 (HR 1·35 [1·32-1·38] for men who were limited a lot; 1·21 [1·18-1·23] for men who were limited a little; 1·55 [1·51-1·59] for women who were limited a lot; and 1·28 [1·25-1·31] for women who were limited a little). INTERPRETATION: Given the association between disability and mortality involving COVID-19, verification of these findings and consideration of recommendations for protective measures are now required. FUNDING: None.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , Disabled Persons/statistics & numerical data , Pandemics , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/epidemiology , England/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , Self Report
12.
BMC Med ; 19(1): 299, 2021 11 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1511749

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. METHODS: Here we use a mathematical model of norovirus fitted to community incidence data in England to project forward expected incidence based on contact surveys that have been collected throughout 2020-2021. RESULTS: We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year. The age-specific incidence is similar across all ages. CONCLUSIONS: Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Norovirus , England/epidemiology , Humans , Models, Theoretical , SARS-CoV-2
14.
Int J Prison Health ; ahead-of-print(ahead-of-print)2021 03 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1501268

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: The outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus and subsequent COVID-19 illness has had a major impact on all levels of society internationally. The extent of the impact of COVID-19 on prison staff and prisoners in England and Wales is unknown. Testing for COVID-19 both asymptomatic and symptomatic, as well as for antibodies, to date, has been minimal. The purpose of this paper is to explore the widespread testing of COVID-19 in prisons poses philosophical and ethical questions around trust, efficacy and ethicacy. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: This paper is both descriptive, providing an overview of the widespread testing of COVID-19 in prisoners in England and Wales, and conceptual in that it discusses and argues the issues associated with large-scale testing. This paper provides a discussion, using comparative studies, of the issues associated with large-scale testing of prisoners across the prison estate in England and Wales (120 prisons). The issues identified in this paper are contextualised through the lens of COVID-19, but they are equally transferrable to epidemiological studies of any pandemic. Given the prevalence of COVID-19 globally and the lack of information about its spread in prisons, at the time of writing this paper, there is a programme of asymptomatic testing of prisoners. However, there remains a paucity of data on the spread of COVID-19 in prisons because of the progress with the ongoing testing programme. FINDINGS: The authors argue that the widespread testing of prisoners requires careful consideration of the details regarding who is included in testing, how consent is gained and how tests are administered. This paper outlines and argues the importance of considering the complex nuance of power relationships within the prison system, among prisoner officers, medical staff and prisoners and the detrimental consequences. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: The widespread testing of COVID-19 presents ethical and practical challenges. Careful planning is required when considering the ethics of who should be included in COVID-19 testing, how consent will be gained, who and how tests will be administered and very practical challenges around the recording and assigning of COVID-19 test kits inside the prison. The current system for the general population requires scanning of barcodes and registration using a mobile number; these facilities are not permitted inside a prison. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: This paper looks at the issues associated with mass testing of prisoners for COVID-19. According to the authors' knowledge, there has not been any research that looks at the issues of testing either in the UK or internationally. The literature available details countries' responses to the pandemic rather and scientific papers on the development of vaccines. Therefore, this paper is an original review of some of the practicalities that need to be addressed to ensure that testing can be as successful as possible.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Testing , COVID-19/diagnosis , Prisoners , Adult , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19 Testing/ethics , England/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Male , Prevalence , SARS-CoV-2 , Trust , Wales/epidemiology
16.
Lancet ; 398(10313): 1825-1835, 2021 11 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1492790

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: England's COVID-19 roadmap out of lockdown policy set out the timeline and conditions for the stepwise lifting of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as vaccination roll-out continued, with step one starting on March 8, 2021. In this study, we assess the roadmap, the impact of the delta (B.1.617.2) variant of SARS-CoV-2, and potential future epidemic trajectories. METHODS: This mathematical modelling study was done to assess the UK Government's four-step process to easing lockdown restrictions in England, UK. We extended a previously described model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to incorporate vaccination and multi-strain dynamics to explicitly capture the emergence of the delta variant. We calibrated the model to English surveillance data, including hospital admissions, hospital occupancy, seroprevalence data, and population-level PCR testing data using a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework, then modelled the potential trajectory of the epidemic for a range of different schedules for relaxing NPIs. We estimated the resulting number of daily infections and hospital admissions, and daily and cumulative deaths. Three scenarios spanning a range of optimistic to pessimistic vaccine effectiveness, waning natural immunity, and cross-protection from previous infections were investigated. We also considered three levels of mixing after the lifting of restrictions. FINDINGS: The roadmap policy was successful in offsetting the increased transmission resulting from lifting NPIs starting on March 8, 2021, with increasing population immunity through vaccination. However, because of the emergence of the delta variant, with an estimated transmission advantage of 76% (95% credible interval [95% CrI] 69-83) over alpha, fully lifting NPIs on June 21, 2021, as originally planned might have led to 3900 (95% CrI 1500-5700) peak daily hospital admissions under our central parameter scenario. Delaying until July 19, 2021, reduced peak hospital admissions by three fold to 1400 (95% CrI 700-1700) per day. There was substantial uncertainty in the epidemic trajectory, with particular sensitivity to the transmissibility of delta, level of mixing, and estimates of vaccine effectiveness. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show that the risk of a large wave of COVID-19 hospital admissions resulting from lifting NPIs can be substantially mitigated if the timing of NPI relaxation is carefully balanced against vaccination coverage. However, with the delta variant, it might not be possible to fully lift NPIs without a third wave of hospital admissions and deaths, even if vaccination coverage is high. Variants of concern, their transmissibility, vaccine uptake, and vaccine effectiveness must be carefully monitored as countries relax pandemic control measures. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, and UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/transmission , Communicable Disease Control/organization & administration , SARS-CoV-2 , Vaccination Coverage/organization & administration , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/mortality , England/epidemiology , Hospital Mortality/trends , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Models, Theoretical , Patient Admission/statistics & numerical data
17.
J Hematol Oncol ; 14(1): 172, 2021 10 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1477441

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Thromboembolism has been reported as a consequence of severe COVID-19. Although warfarin is a commonly used anticoagulant, it acts by antagonising vitamin K, which is low in patients with severe COVID-19. To date, the clinical evidence on the impact of regular use of warfarin on COVID-19-related thromboembolism is lacking. METHODS: On behalf of NHS England, we conducted a population-based cohort study investigating the association between warfarin and COVID-19 outcomes compared with direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). We used the OpenSAFELY platform to analyse primary care data and pseudonymously linked SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing data, hospital admissions and death records from England. We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for COVID-19-related outcomes comparing warfarin with DOACs in people with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. We also conducted negative control outcome analyses (being tested for SARS-CoV-2 and non-COVID-19 death) to assess the potential impact of confounding. RESULTS: A total of 92,339 warfarin users and 280,407 DOAC users were included. We observed a lower risk of all outcomes associated with warfarin versus DOACs [testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, HR 0.73 (95% CI 0.68-0.79); COVID-19-related hospital admission, HR 0.75 (95% CI 0.68-0.83); COVID-19-related deaths, HR 0.74 (95% CI 0.66-0.83)]. A lower risk of negative control outcomes associated with warfarin versus DOACs was also observed [being tested for SARS-CoV-2, HR 0.80 (95% CI 0.79-0.81); non-COVID-19 deaths, HR 0.79 (95% CI 0.76-0.83)]. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, this study shows no evidence of harmful effects of warfarin on severe COVID-19 disease.


Subject(s)
Anticoagulants/therapeutic use , COVID-19/epidemiology , Thromboembolism/drug therapy , Thromboembolism/virology , Warfarin/therapeutic use , Administration, Oral , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Anticoagulants/pharmacology , COVID-19/blood , COVID-19/drug therapy , COVID-19/virology , Cohort Studies , England/epidemiology , Humans , Middle Aged , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Thromboembolism/blood , Thromboembolism/epidemiology , Treatment Outcome , Young Adult
18.
BMC Med ; 19(1): 275, 2021 10 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1477421

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine has been shown to be effective at preventing serious COVID-19 events in clinical trials. There is less evidence on effectiveness in real-world settings, especially for older people. Here, we aimed to estimate vaccine effectiveness in the context of the rapid NHS mass-vaccination programme in England, exploiting age-based vaccination eligibility thresholds to minimise and correct for selection bias. METHODS: We studied 170,226 individuals between the ages of 80 and 83 years from community settings outside care homes who received one dose of BNT162b2 mRNA between the 15 and 20 December 2020 and were scheduled a second dose 21 days later. We matched these vaccine recipients to slightly younger (aged 76-79 years) persons not yet eligible to receive the vaccine on gender, area of residence, area deprivation, health status, living arrangements, acute illness, and history of seasonal flu vaccination. We compared their rates of COVID-19 positivity and hospitalisation in the subsequent 45 days. We adjusted for the increasing concentration of COVID-19 positivity in the control population caused by the requirement to have no COVID-19 symptoms prior to vaccination. RESULTS: Emergency hospital admissions were 51.0% (95% confidence interval 19.9 to 69.5%) lower and positive COVID-19 tests were 55.2% (40.8 to 66.8%) lower for vaccinated individuals compared to matched controls 21 to 27 days after first vaccination. Emergency admissions were 75.6% (52.8 to 87.6%) lower, and positive COVID-19 tests were 70.1% (55.1 to 80.1%) lower 35 to 41 days after first vaccination when 79% of participants had received a second dose within 26 days of their first dose. CONCLUSIONS: Receipt of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine is effective at reducing COVID-19 hospitalisations and infections. The nationwide vaccination of older adults in England with the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine reduced the burden of COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Influenza Vaccines , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19 Vaccines , Case-Control Studies , England/epidemiology , Hospitalization , Humans , Mass Vaccination , RNA, Messenger , SARS-CoV-2
19.
Science ; 372(6538)2021 04 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1476375

ABSTRACT

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/transmission , COVID-19/virology , SARS-CoV-2 , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Basic Reproduction Number , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19 Vaccines , Child , Child, Preschool , Communicable Disease Control , England/epidemiology , Europe/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Infant , Male , Middle Aged , Models, Theoretical , Mutation , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , SARS-CoV-2/growth & development , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Severity of Illness Index , Socioeconomic Factors , United States/epidemiology , Viral Load , Young Adult
20.
Lancet Public Health ; 6(11): e805-e816, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1467001

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: High-resolution data for how mortality and longevity have changed in England, UK are scarce. We aimed to estimate trends from 2002 to 2019 in life expectancy and probabilities of death at different ages for all 6791 middle-layer super output areas (MSOAs) in England. METHODS: We performed a high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of civil registration data from the UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit research database using de-identified data for all deaths in England from 2002 to 2019, with information on age, sex, and MSOA of residence, and population counts by age, sex, and MSOA. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to obtain estimates of age-specific death rates by sharing information across age groups, MSOAs, and years. We used life table methods to calculate life expectancy at birth and probabilities of death in different ages by sex and MSOA. FINDINGS: In 2002-06 and 2006-10, all but a few (0-1%) MSOAs had a life expectancy increase for female and male sexes. In 2010-14, female life expectancy decreased in 351 (5·2%) of 6791 MSOAs. By 2014-19, the number of MSOAs with declining life expectancy was 1270 (18·7%) for women and 784 (11·5%) for men. The life expectancy increase from 2002 to 2019 was smaller in MSOAs where life expectancy had been lower in 2002 (mostly northern urban MSOAs), and larger in MSOAs where life expectancy had been higher in 2002 (mostly MSOAs in and around London). As a result of these trends, the gap between the first and 99th percentiles of MSOA life expectancy for women increased from 10·7 years (95% credible interval 10·4-10·9) in 2002 to reach 14·2 years (13·9-14·5) in 2019, and for men increased from 11·5 years (11·3-11·7) in 2002 to 13·6 years (13·4-13·9) in 2019. INTERPRETATION: In the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy declined in increasing numbers of communities in England. To ensure that this trend does not continue or worsen, there is a need for pro-equity economic and social policies, and greater investment in public health and health care throughout the entire country. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Imperial College London, Medical Research Council, Health Data Research UK, and National Institutes of Health Research.


Subject(s)
Life Expectancy/trends , Mortality/trends , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Bayes Theorem , Child , Child, Preschool , England/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Middle Aged , Registries , Residence Characteristics/statistics & numerical data , Risk Assessment , Spatio-Temporal Analysis , Young Adult
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