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1.
J R Soc Interface ; 19(186): 20210718, 2022 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1621729

ABSTRACT

Epidemics can particularly threaten certain sub-populations. For example, for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the elderly are often preferentially protected. For diseases of plants and animals, certain sub-populations can drive mitigation because they are intrinsically more valuable for ecological, economic, socio-cultural or political reasons. Here, we use optimal control theory to identify strategies to optimally protect a 'high-value' sub-population when there is a limited budget and epidemiological uncertainty. We use protection of the Redwood National Park in California in the face of the large ongoing state-wide epidemic of sudden oak death (caused by Phytophthora ramorum) as a case study. We concentrate on whether control should be focused entirely within the National Park itself, or whether treatment of the growing epidemic in the surrounding 'buffer region' can instead be more profitable. We find that, depending on rates of infection and the size of the ongoing epidemic, focusing control on the high-value region is often optimal. However, priority should sometimes switch from the buffer region to the high-value region only as the local outbreak grows. We characterize how the timing of any switch depends on epidemiological and logistic parameters, and test robustness to systematic misspecification of these factors due to imperfect prior knowledge.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Epidemics , Quercus , Aged , Animals , Humans , Plant Diseases/prevention & control , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2
3.
PLoS One ; 17(1): e0262283, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1613363

ABSTRACT

In stressful situations such as the COVID-19-pandemic, unpleasant emotions are expected to increase while pleasant emotions will likely decrease. Little is known about the role cognitive appraisals, information management, and upregulating pleasant emotions can play to support emotion regulation in a pandemic. In an online survey (N = 1682), we investigated predictors of changes in pleasant and unpleasant emotions in a German sample (aged 18-88 years) shortly after the first restrictions were imposed. Crisis self-efficacy and felt restriction were predictors of changes in unpleasant emotions and joy alike. The application of emotion up-regulation strategies was weakly associated with changes in joy. Among the different upregulation strategies, only "savouring the moment" predicted changes in joy. Our study informs future research perspectives assessing the role of upregulating pleasant emotions under challenging circumstances.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/psychology , Emotional Regulation/physiology , Stress, Psychological/psychology , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/epidemiology , Emotions , Epidemics/psychology , Female , Germany/epidemiology , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Surveys and Questionnaires
4.
Biophys J ; 120(14): 2872-2879, 2021 07 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1605779

ABSTRACT

We study the transition of an epidemic from growth phase to decay of the active infections in a population when lockdown health measures are introduced to reduce the probability of disease transmission. Although in the case of uniform lockdown, a simple compartmental model would indicate instantaneous transition to decay of the epidemic, this is not the case when partially isolated active clusters remain with the potential to create a series of small outbreaks. We model this using the Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithm based on a connected set of stochastic susceptible-infected-removed/recovered networks representing the locked-down majority population (in which the reproduction number is less than 1) weakly coupled to a large set of small clusters in which the infection may propagate. We find that the presence of such active clusters can lead to slower than expected decay of the epidemic and significantly delayed onset of the decay phase. We study the relative contributions of these changes, caused by the active clusters within the population, to the additional total infected population. We also demonstrate that limiting the size of the inevitable active clusters can be efficient in reducing their impact on the overall size of the epidemic outbreak. The deceleration of the decay phase becomes apparent when the active clusters form at least 5% of the population.


Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks , Epidemics , Algorithms , Computer Simulation , Humans , Probability
5.
BMC Infect Dis ; 21(1): 1145, 2021 Nov 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1608950

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The global spread of the novel coronavirus pneumonia is still continuing, and a new round of more serious outbreaks has even begun in some countries. In this context, this paper studies the dynamics of a type of delayed reaction-diffusion novel coronavirus pneumonia model with relapse and self-limiting treatment in a temporal-spatial heterogeneous environment. METHODS: First, focus on the self-limiting characteristics of COVID-19, incorporate the relapse and self-limiting treatment factors into the diffusion model, and study the influence of self-limiting treatment on the diffusion of the epidemic. Second, because the traditional Lyapunov stability method is difficult to determine the spread of the epidemic with relapse and self-limiting treatment, we introduce a completely different method, relying on the existence conditions of the exponential attractor of our newly established in the infinite-dimensional dynamic system to determine the diffusion of novel coronavirus pneumonia. Third, relapse and self-limiting treatment have led to a change in the structure of the delayed diffusion COVID-19 model, and the traditional basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] no longer has threshold characteristics. With the help of the Krein-Rutman theorem and the eigenvalue method, we studied the threshold characteristics of the principal eigenvalue and found that it can be used as a new threshold to describe the diffusion of the epidemic. RESULTS: Our results prove that the principal eigenvalue [Formula: see text] of the delayed reaction-diffusion COVID-19 system with relapse and self-limiting treatment can replace the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] to describe the threshold effect of disease transmission. Combine with the latest official data and the prevention and control strategies, some numerical simulations on the stability and global exponential attractiveness of the diffusion of the COVID-19 epidemic in China and the USA are given. CONCLUSIONS: Through the comparison of numerical simulations, we find that self-limiting treatment can significantly promote the prevention and control of the epidemic. And if the free activities of asymptomatic infected persons are not restricted, it will seriously hinder the progress of epidemic prevention and control.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Epidemics , Basic Reproduction Number , Humans , Models, Biological , SARS-CoV-2
6.
Front Public Health ; 9: 737817, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1608735

ABSTRACT

Background: Prevention and control of HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) are major public health priorities in China, but are influenced by the COVID-19 epidemic. In this study, we aimed to quantitatively explore the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and its control measures on five major STD epidemics in China. Methods: A monthly number of newly reported cases of HIV/AIDS, hepatitis B and C, gonorrhea, and syphilis from January 2010 to December 2020 were extracted to establish autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Each month's absolute percentage error (APE) between the actual value and model-predicted value of each STD in 2020 was calculated to evaluate the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic on the STDs. Pearson correlation analysis was conducted to explore the confirmed COVID-19 case numbers and the COVID-19 control measures' correlations with the case numbers and the APEs of five STDs in 2020. Results: The actual number of five STDs in China was more than 50% lower than the predicted number in the early days of the COVID-19 epidemic, especially in February. Among them, the actual number of cases of hepatitis C, gonorrhea, and syphilis in February 2020 was more than 100% lower than the predicted number (APE was -102.3, -109.0, and -100.4%, respectively). After the sharply declines of STDs' reported cases in early 2020, the case numbers recovered quickly after March. The epidemic of STDs was negatively associated with the COVID-19 epidemic and its control measures, especially for restrictions on gathering size, close public transport, and stay-at-home requirements (p < 0.05). Conclusion: COVID-19 had a significant but temporary influence on the STD epidemic in China. The effective control of COVID-19 is vital for STD prevention. STD services need to be improved to prevent STDs from becoming a secluded corner in the shadow of COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Epidemics , Sexually Transmitted Diseases , China/epidemiology , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Sexually Transmitted Diseases/epidemiology
7.
BMC Public Health ; 22(1): 13, 2022 01 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1607916

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Individual behavioural decisions are responses to a person's perceived social norms that could be shaped by both their physical and social environment. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, these environments correspond to epidemiological risk from contacts and the social construction of risk by communication within networks of friends. Understanding the circumstances under which the influence of these different social networks can promote the acceptance of non-pharmaceutical interventions and consequently the adoption of protective behaviours is critical for guiding useful, practical public health messaging. METHODS: We explore how information from both physical contact and social communication layers of a multiplex network can contribute to flattening the epidemic curve in a community. Connections in the physical contact layer represent opportunities for transmission, while connections in the communication layer represent social interactions through which individuals may gain information, e.g. messaging friends. RESULTS: We show that maintaining focus on awareness of risk among each individual's physical contacts promotes the greatest reduction in disease spread, but only when an individual is aware of the symptoms of a non-trivial proportion of their physical contacts (~ ≥ 20%). Information from the social communication layer without was less useful when these connections matched less well with physical contacts and contributed little in combination with accurate information from physical contacts. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that maintaining social focus on local outbreak status will allow individuals to structure their perceived social norms appropriately and respond more rapidly when risk increases. Finding ways to relay accurate local information from trusted community leaders could improve mitigation even where more intrusive/costly strategies, such as contact-tracing, are not possible.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Epidemics , Communication , Contact Tracing , Humans , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
8.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi ; 42(12): 2088-2095, 2021 Dec 10.
Article in Chinese | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1600051

ABSTRACT

Objective: To understand the epidemiological characteristics of three local COVID-19 epidemics in Guangzhou and provide reference for optimizing strategies and measures of COVID-19 prevention and control. Methods: The data of local COVID-19 cases in Guangzhou reported as of June 18, 2021 were collected from National Notifiable Disease Report System of China. The software Excel 2019 and SPSS 22.0 were applied for data cleaning and statistical analysis. Results: A total of 726 COVID-19 cases were reported in the three local epidemics in Guangzhou. In the epidemic associated with the outbreak of COVID-19 in Hubei province, 366 cases were reported. Most cases were female (51.6%, 189/366), aged 18-65 years (81.4%, 298/366), jobless/unemployed (32.2%, 118/366) and retired persons (20.2%,74/366). The initial symptoms of most cases were fever (71.6%, 250/349) and cough (60.7%, 212/349). In the epidemic associated with the imported COVID-19 cases from Africa, 207 cases were reported. Most cases were aged 18-40 years (72.9%, 151/207), male (69.6%, 144/207), and engaged in commercial services (62.3%,129/207). The initial symptoms of most cases were no obvious discomfort (55.6%, 15/27) and cough (37.0%, 10/27). In the epidemic associated with Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, 153 cases were reported, in which women accounted for 58.8% (90/153), most cases were over 41 years old (64.7%,99/153), and retired persons accounted for the highest proportion (32.0%,49/153). The initial symptoms of most cases were cough (32.9%, 48/146) and no obvious discomfort (28.1%, 41/146). The household secondary attack rates of the three local epidemics were 11.2%, 5.7% and 11.5%, respectively. The median (P25, P75) of incubation periods were 6.5 (4.0,10.8) d, 4.0 (2.5, 6.0) d and 4.0 (3.0,5.0) d. The serial intervals median (P25, P75) were 4.0 (3.0, 8.0) d, 4.0 (2.5, 6.0) d and 3.0 (2.0,5.0) d. There were significant differences in gender, age, occupation, initial symptoms, household secondary attack rate and incubation period among the three local COVID-19 epidemics (all P<0.05). In the proportion of the case finding way, passive detection in patient treatment were mainly 44.3%(162/366) in the epidemic associated with the outbreak of COVID-19 in Hubei province,but active community case screening [58.5% (121/207) and 27.5% (24/153)] and close contact management in imported case were mostly [33.3% (69/207) and 67.3% (103/153)] in the epidemic associated with the imported COVID-19 cases from Africa and with Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, respectively. Conclusions: Due to the different sources of infection, strain types and prevention and control strategies, the epidemiological characteristics of the three local COVID-19 epidemics in Guangzhou differed in demographics, clinical symptoms, transmission routes and case finding, which suggested that it is necessary to improve the key population and common symptom monitoring in the routine prevention and control of COVID-19 to prevent the reemerge of the epidemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Epidemics , Adult , China/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Male , SARS-CoV-2
10.
PLoS One ; 16(12): e0261424, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1599330

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 outbreak has caused two waves and spread to more than 90% of Canada's provinces since it was first reported more than a year ago. During the COVID-19 epidemic, Canadian provinces have implemented many Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs). However, the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic continues due to the complex dynamics of human mobility. We develop a meta-population network model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. The model takes into account the heterogeneity of mitigation strategies in different provinces of Canada, such as the timing of implementing NPIs, the human mobility in retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, parks, transit stations, workplaces, and residences due to work and recreation. To determine which activity is most closely related to the dynamics of COVID-19, we use the cross-correlation analysis to find that the positive correlation is the highest between the mobility data of parks and the weekly number of confirmed COVID-19 from February 15 to December 13, 2020. The average effective reproduction numbers in nine Canadian provinces are all greater than one during the time period, and NPIs have little impact on the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics in Ontario and Saskatchewan. After November 20, 2020, the average infection probability in Alberta became the highest since the start of the COVID-19 epidemic in Canada. We also observe that human activities around residences do not contribute much to the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. The simulation results indicate that social distancing and constricting human mobility is effective in mitigating COVID-19 transmission in Canada. Our findings can provide guidance for public health authorities in projecting the effectiveness of future NPIs.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/transmission , Epidemics/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Travel/statistics & numerical data , Basic Reproduction Number/statistics & numerical data , COVID-19/epidemiology , Canada/epidemiology , Humans , Incidence , Models, Statistical , Physical Distancing , Quarantine/methods
11.
PLoS One ; 16(12): e0252972, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1598722

ABSTRACT

SARS-CoV-2 has clearly shown that efficient management of infectious diseases requires a top-down approach which must be complemented with a bottom-up response to be effective. Here we investigate a novel approach to surveillance for transboundary animal diseases using African Swine (ASF) fever as a model. We collected data both at a population level and at the local level on information-seeking behavior respectively through digital data and targeted questionnaire-based surveys to relevant stakeholders such as pig farmers and veterinary authorities. Our study shows how information-seeking behavior and resulting public attention during an epidemic, can be identified through novel data streams from digital platforms such as Wikipedia. Leveraging attention in a critical moment can be key to providing the correct information at the right moment, especially to an interested cohort of people. We also bring evidence on how field surveys aimed at local workers and veterinary authorities remain a crucial tool to assess more in-depth preparedness and awareness among front-line actors. We conclude that these two tools should be used in combination to maximize the outcome of surveillance and prevention activities for selected transboundary animal diseases such as ASF.


Subject(s)
African Swine Fever/epidemiology , Epidemics/prevention & control , Epidemiological Monitoring , Livestock/virology , Animals , Awareness , Estonia/epidemiology , Farmers , Internet , Statistics, Nonparametric , Surveys and Questionnaires , Swine
13.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 24467, 2021 12 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1596771

ABSTRACT

Mobility restrictions are successfully used to contain the diffusion of epidemics. In this work we explore their effect on the epidemic growth by investigating an extension of the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model in which individual mobility is taken into account. In the model individual agents move on a chessboard with a Lévy walk and, within each square, epidemic spreading follows the standard SIR model. These simple rules allow to reproduce the sub-exponential growth of the epidemic evolution observed during the Covid-19 epidemic waves in several countries and which cannot be captured by the standard SIR model. We show that we can tune the slowing-down of the epidemic spreading by changing the dynamics of the agents from Lévy to Brownian and we investigate how the interplay among different containment strategies mitigate the epidemic spreading. Finally we demonstrate that we can reproduce the epidemic evolution of the first and second COVID-19 waves in Italy using only 3 parameters, i.e , the infection rate, the removing rate, and the mobility in the country. We provide an estimate of the peak reduction due to imposed mobility restrictions, i. e., the so-called flattening the curve effect. Although based on few ingredients, the model captures the kinetic of the epidemic waves, returning mobility values that are consistent with a lock-down intervention during the first wave and milder limitations, associated to a weaker peak reduction, during the second wave.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Models, Theoretical , Movement , COVID-19/virology , Epidemics , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification
14.
Infect Dis Poverty ; 11(1): 4, 2022 Jan 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1589989

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Risk communication interventions during epidemics aim to modify risk perceptions to achieve rapid shifts in population health behaviours. Exposure to frequent and often concurrent epidemics may influence how the public and health professionals perceive and respond to epidemic risks. This review aimed to systematically examine the evidence on risk perceptions of epidemic-prone diseases in countries highly vulnerable to epidemics. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review using PRISMA standards. We included peer-reviewed studies describing or measuring risk perceptions of epidemic-prone diseases among the general adult population or health professionals in 62 countries considered highly vulnerable to epidemics. We searched seven bibliographic databases and applied a four-stage screening and selection process, followed by quality appraisal. We conducted a narrative meta-synthesis and descriptive summary of the evidence, guided by the Social Amplification of Risk Framework. RESULTS: Fifty-six studies were eligible for the final review. They were conducted in eighteen countries and addressed thirteen epidemic-prone diseases. Forty-five studies were quantitative, six qualitative and five used mixed methods. Forty-one studies described epidemic risk perceptions in the general public and nineteen among health professionals. Perceived severity of epidemic-prone diseases appeared high across public and health professional populations. However, perceived likelihood of acquiring disease varied from low to moderate to high among the general public, and appeared consistently high amongst health professionals. Other occupational groups with high exposure to specific diseases, such as bushmeat handlers, reported even lower perceived likelihood than the general population. Among health professionals, the safety and effectiveness of the work environment and of the broader health system response influenced perceptions. Among the general population, disease severity, familiarity and controllability of diseases were influential factors. However, the evidence on how epidemic risk perceptions are formed or modified in these populations is limited. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence affords some insights into patterns of epidemic risk perception and influencing factors, but inadequately explores what underlies perceptions and their variability, particularly among diseases, populations and over time. Approaches to defining and measuring epidemic risk perceptions are relatively underdeveloped.


Subject(s)
Epidemics , Health Personnel , Humans
15.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 24124, 2021 12 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1585805

ABSTRACT

The quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor k for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (95% confidence interval 0.08-0.18), implying that 10 % of the infected cause between 70 % and 87 % of all infections.


Subject(s)
Algorithms , Basic Reproduction Number/statistics & numerical data , COVID-19/transmission , Models, Theoretical , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Denmark/epidemiology , Epidemics/prevention & control , Geography , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/physiology
16.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 24145, 2021 12 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1585802

ABSTRACT

Recent studies suggest that coronaviruses circulate widely in Southeast Asian bat species and that the progenitors of the SARS-Cov-2 virus could have originated in rhinolophid bats in the region. Our objective was to assess the diversity and circulation patterns of coronavirus in several bat species in Southeast Asia. We undertook monthly live-capture sessions and sampling in Cambodia over 17 months to cover all phases of the annual reproduction cycle of bats and test specifically the association between their age and CoV infection status. We additionally examined current information on the reproductive phenology of Rhinolophus and other bat species presently known to occur in mainland southeast China, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. Results from our longitudinal monitoring (573 bats belonging to 8 species) showed an overall proportion of positive PCR tests for CoV of 4.2% (24/573) in cave-dwelling bats from Kampot and 4.75% (22/463) in flying-foxes from Kandal. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the PCR amplicon sequences of CoVs (n = 46) obtained clustered in Alphacoronavirus and Betacoronavirus. Interestingly, Hipposideros larvatus sensu lato harbored viruses from both genera. Our results suggest an association between positive detections of coronaviruses and juvenile and immature bats in Cambodia (OR = 3.24 [1.46-7.76], p = 0.005). Since the limited data presently available from literature review indicates that reproduction is largely synchronized among rhinolophid and hipposiderid bats in our study region, particularly in its more seasonal portions (above 16° N), this may lead to seasonal patterns in CoV circulation. Overall, our study suggests that surveillance of CoV in insectivorous bat species in Southeast Asia, including SARS-CoV-related coronaviruses in rhinolophid bats, could be targeted from June to October for species exhibiting high proportions of juveniles and immatures during these months. It also highlights the need to develop long-term longitudinal surveys of bats and improve our understanding of their ecology in the region, for both biodiversity conservation and public health reasons.


Subject(s)
Alphacoronavirus/genetics , Betacoronavirus/genetics , COVID-19/transmission , Chiroptera/growth & development , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Alphacoronavirus/classification , Animals , Asia, Southeastern/epidemiology , Betacoronavirus/classification , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Cambodia/epidemiology , Chiroptera/classification , Chiroptera/virology , Epidemics/prevention & control , Evolution, Molecular , Genome, Viral/genetics , Geography , Humans , Longitudinal Studies , Male , Phylogeny , SARS-CoV-2/classification , SARS-CoV-2/physiology , Species Specificity
17.
Front Immunol ; 12: 751778, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1581343

ABSTRACT

During the COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged and spread worldwide. The Delta (B.1.617.2) variant was first reported in India in October 2020 and was classified as a "variant of concern (VOC)" by the WHO on 11 May, 2021. Compared to the wild-type strain, several studies have shown that the Delta variant is more transmissible and has higher viral loads in infected samples. COVID-19 patients infected with the Delta variant have a higher risk of hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and mortality. The Delta variant is becoming the dominant strain in many countries around the world. This review summarizes and analyses the biological characteristics of key amino acid mutations, the epidemic characteristics, and the immune escape of the Delta variant. We hope to provide scientific reference for the monitoring and prevention measures of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and the development strategy of a second-generation vaccine.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/immunology , COVID-19/epidemiology , Mutation/genetics , SARS-CoV-2/physiology , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/genetics , Animals , COVID-19/genetics , COVID-19/immunology , Epidemics , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Immune Evasion , Mass Vaccination
18.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 19(1)2021 Dec 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1580774

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 frontline healthcare workers (FHCW) are struggling to cope with challenges that threaten their wellbeing. We examine the frequency and predictors of the most frequent mental health problems (MHP) among FHCW during the first COVID-19 peak in Mexico, one of the most severely affected countries in terms of FHCW's COVID-19 mortality. A cross-sectional survey was conducted between May 8 and August 18, 2020. A total of 47.5% of the sample (n = 2218) were FHCW. The most frequent MHP were insomnia, depression, posttraumatic stress symptoms, and health anxiety/somatization (whole sample: 45.7, 37.4, 33.9, and 21.3%; FHCW: 52.4, 43.4, 40.3 and 26.1, respectively). As compared to during the initial COVID-19 phase, depression and health anxiety/somatization symptoms as well as experiences of grieving due to COVID-19, personal COVID-19 status, and having relatives and close friends with COVID-19 were more frequent during the COVID-19 peak. Obesity, domestic violence, personal COVID-19 status, and grieving because of COVID-19 were included in regression models for main FHCW's MHP during the COVID-19 peak. In conclusion, measures to decrease other country-level epidemics contributing to the likelihood of COVID-19 complications (obesity) and MHP (domestic violence) as well as FHCW´s probability of COVID-19 infection could safeguard not only their physical but also mental health.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Epidemics , Anxiety , Cross-Sectional Studies , Depression , Health Personnel , Humans , Mental Health , Mexico/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2
19.
Ann Palliat Med ; 10(12): 12498-12506, 2021 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1579499

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Dialysis patients are at high risk of being infected by the novel coronavirus. This article aimed to share our experience in preparing hemodialysis centers in fighting against the COVID-19 in Sichuan province. METHODS: To control COVID-19, the Sichuan Renal Disease Quality Control Center (SRDQCC) organized a multidisciplinary team to draft and distribute documents for dialysis centers. The SRDQCC also established an online education system and a registry. A survey was used to assess the resources and the preparation of the dialysis centers. Patients with infected COVID-19 were transferred to the referral hospitals and treated with continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) in isolated rooms. RESULTS: All 21 regions in Sichuan province had designated specific referral hospitals for COVID-19. The documents drafted by the SRDQCC were distributed to all dialysis centers. A total of 313 records from the survey showed that 96% (301/313) of the dialysis centers had set up an emergency program based on the relevant documents. Only 39% (121/313) of the centers had emergency isolated room(s) for COVID-19. Also, 22% (68/313) of the centers had their patient(s) moved to other centers. The online system educated medical staff in 87% (271/313) of the centers. The online registry received 329 records. Four cases of COVID-19-infected dialysis patients were reported until March 3rd, 2020. There were no outbreaks of COVID-19 in any dialysis center in Sichuan province. CONCLUSIONS: The experience of dialysis centers in Sichuan province in fighting against COVID-19 is worth sharing. Dialysis centers need to be prepared to cope with infectious epidemics guided by national as well as regional quality control centers or other similar organizations.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Epidemics , Kidney Failure, Chronic , Humans , Kidney Failure, Chronic/epidemiology , Renal Dialysis , SARS-CoV-2
20.
Acta Biotheor ; 70(1): 8, 2021 Dec 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1588785

ABSTRACT

The challenges with modeling the spread of Covid-19 are its power-type growth during the middle stages of the waves with the exponents depending on time, and that the saturation of the waves is mainly due to the protective measures and other restriction mechanisms working in the same direction. The two-phase solution we propose for modeling the total number of detected cases of Covid-19 describes the actual curves for many its waves and in many countries almost with the accuracy of physics laws. Bessel functions play the key role in our approach. The differential equations we obtain are of universal type and can be used in behavioral psychology, invasion ecology (transient processes), etc. The initial transmission rate and the intensity of the restriction mechanisms are the key parameters. This theory provides a convincing explanation of the surprising uniformity of the Covid-19 waves in many places, and can be used for forecasting the epidemic spread. For instance, the early projections for the 3rd wave in the USA appeared sufficiently exact. The Delta-waves (2021) in India, South Africa, UK, and the Netherlands are discussed at the end.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Epidemics , Animals , India , SARS-CoV-2
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